PA Monmouth - Biden +4

[Chips]

PA looking like the tipping point.

[Alben Barkley]

This is the only poll today that has me even slightly worried. Still, I think it’s less likely that Biden has actually collapsed 9 points in PA than that both this poll and their last poll were outliers on the extreme ends of Biden’s range in the state, with his actual lead probably somewhere in between. This poll also matches Morning Consult’s poll from yesterday, which also showed that for whatever reason Biden isn’t doing as well in PA as in MI and WI. And some polls have him doing better in FL and AZ as well. So there is admittedly something of a pattern there, but how much we can read into it I’m not sure. The important thing is Biden’s still much closer to 50 here than Trump is, and still ahead. And of course could afford to lose it and still win if he wins some combination of MI/WI/FL/AZ. Trump has much less room for error.

[Granite City]

One thing I noticed is that only 40% of the sample is college educated. 48% of the 2016 electorate was, according to exit polls.

The education numbers in the 2016 exit polls were frankly nonsense, it is just not possible that the turnout was that strong among the college-educated population (would need to have been 97%). 40% is probably high to be honest.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/29/opinion/2016-exit-polls-election.html

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2017/11/01/441926/voter-trends-in-2016/

And see Nate Cohn's tweet from July about PA education weights

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1288807445746393089?s=20

[ON Progressive]

The recent swing state polls aren't in line with national figures.

Either the national lead for Biden is heavily inflated, or he's running up the score in DEM states and cutting the margins from 2016 in heavily Trump states.

Or the swing state polls are off.

The DNC ratings say he's running up the score in dem states. RNC had lower ratings but better ratings in swingy markets like Pittsburgh.

The Pittsburgh media market voted for Trump by 9 points, hardly a swing market.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah this is total garbage.

Trump has increased his support in ten counties where the vote margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election. In these swing counties*, which are concentrated in a swath that runs from the Philadelphia suburbs into the northeast region of the commonwealth, the race stands at 46% for Trump and 44% for Biden. Just over six weeks ago, Biden had a sizable 54% to 35% lead among voters in this key county grouping.

Swing counties going from Biden +19 to Trump +2 is ridiculous.

Once again writing off a poll that doesn't show the result which you desire. I made my points elsewhere, so I will leave this at that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can't be too disappointed as I never expected the Obama-Trump states to return to the Democratic fold by more than they did in 2012. This just about lines up with that expectation. He is still favored here, let's not forget that Trump squeaked by here, as with the other three states that put him over 270 electoral votes. Obviously it could be better, but Biden is still contesting the state and not taking any chances.

You know, after the mass confusion of the polls we had this last weekend, I'll be content with Biden leading at all anywhere.

[ProudModerate2]

Would have liked the number to be a little higher.
But no worries. Biden is still looking good here in PA, and as a backup plan ... in FL.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I would say "to state the obvious" but maybe this isn't obvious at all: while there is good reason to believe that people are slightly less likely to lie about their educational attainment when talking over the phone or to a robot than when talking to someone in person, people will inflate their credentials to a pollster when they would not when filling out a CPS survey. As a result "weighing" by education could be dubious!

[Red Wall]

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1301333870659481600?s=19

Biden losing ground on blue and swing counties.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Reviewing this thread today the question is will a 50 year old black man be motivated to turn out to vote for senile hair sniffer with no personality?  Just wondering!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1301333870659481600?s=19

Biden losing ground on blue and swing counties.

Swing counties account for 106 total respondents in this survey.  It's really pretty silly to draw conclusions based on a sample that size.

[Hammy]

Yeah this is total garbage.

Trump has increased his support in ten counties where the vote margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election. In these swing counties*, which are concentrated in a swath that runs from the Philadelphia suburbs into the northeast region of the commonwealth, the race stands at 46% for Trump and 44% for Biden. Just over six weeks ago, Biden had a sizable 54% to 35% lead among voters in this key county grouping.

Swing counties going from Biden +19 to Trump +2 is ridiculous.

Once again writing off a poll that doesn't show the result which you desire. I made my points elsewhere, so I will leave this at that.

It's a matter of not making sense.

[solidcoalition]

I read a few articles the last couple of months about “Biden’s Pennsylvania problems”. I’m starting to think he may have a better shot at Arizona than Pennsylvania.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah this is total garbage.

Trump has increased his support in ten counties where the vote margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election. In these swing counties*, which are concentrated in a swath that runs from the Philadelphia suburbs into the northeast region of the commonwealth, the race stands at 46% for Trump and 44% for Biden. Just over six weeks ago, Biden had a sizable 54% to 35% lead among voters in this key county grouping.

Swing counties going from Biden +19 to Trump +2 is ridiculous.

Once again writing off a poll that doesn't show the result which you desire. I made my points elsewhere, so I will leave this at that.

It's a matter of not making sense.

Exactly, but it's likely a by-product of them being only 106 respondents from like 7 swing counties, rendering it a terrible sample that Monmouth shouldn't have even put on there, and anyone trying to share it for their narrative needs to be a little smarter.

[DaleCooper]

This poll has an extremely small sample to begin with, so the crosstabs are going to be particularly wonky on this one. I wouldn't put much faith in them.