New PA Maps In Effect

[Bidenworth2020]

Well, that is interesting, but it also has to be taken into account that wolf expanded his margin of Victory dramatically Statewide. I'd be interested in looking at the trend line, or pvi.

The funny thing is that wolf’s 2014 map has a lot more blue on it than the 2018 one. Cumberland County is the only Corbett 2014–>Wolf 2018 county in the state despite his victory margin going up 6%. Meanwhile there’s about half a dozen Wolf 2014–>Wagner counties

As much as I trust you, I had to go check that for myself. Good grief! Like I said in another thread, it is so sad to see Southwestern PA hurtling hard right wing like that.

Not just SWPA... some of the hardest right swings in the gubernatorial race were in NEPA/rural eastern PA. I think Cartwright’s seat is decidedly on borrowed time

I mean, both Casey and Wolf won it. Cartwright won by 9. Every(!) down-ballot dem except McGinty won it in 2016.

He won it by 9 in a D+8 year against a carpetbagger. And even though the top of the ticket also won the district the margins from their previous gubernatorial/Senate races in that seat were cut nearly in half

I am not suggesting this district isn't trending r, ofc it is. But it is still a dem district in most circumstances, so the "borrowed time" claim is ridiculous.

[lfromnj]

Well, that is interesting, but it also has to be taken into account that wolf expanded his margin of Victory dramatically Statewide. I'd be interested in looking at the trend line, or pvi.

The funny thing is that wolf’s 2014 map has a lot more blue on it than the 2018 one. Cumberland County is the only Corbett 2014–>Wolf 2018 county in the state despite his victory margin going up 6%. Meanwhile there’s about half a dozen Wolf 2014–>Wagner counties

As much as I trust you, I had to go check that for myself. Good grief! Like I said in another thread, it is so sad to see Southwestern PA hurtling hard right wing like that.

Not just SWPA... some of the hardest right swings in the gubernatorial race were in NEPA/rural eastern PA. I think Cartwright’s seat is decidedly on borrowed time

I mean, both Casey and Wolf won it. Cartwright won by 9. Every(!) down-ballot dem except McGinty won it in 2016.

He won it by 9 in a D+8 year against a carpetbagger. And even though the top of the ticket also won the district the margins from their previous gubernatorial/Senate races in that seat were cut nearly in half

I am not suggesting this district isn't trending r, ofc it is. But it is still a dem district in most circumstances, so the "borrowed time" claim is ridiculous.

just like ca45th is still a gop district
LOL. If Clinton won Cartwright would have been near DOA.

[wbrocks67]

I think Cartwright will be fine. PA-08 was one of the few districts where Wolf actually did worse than in 2014, but he still won by 13% and Cartwright still won by nearly 10%. It's clear thought that this district is slowly trending R though.