Which Republican Sen. Candidate is mostly likely to pull off an upset?

[SN2903]

I think James has a better chance. I think Baldwin is a more respected incumbent and Stabenow has been in a long time. At the rally tonight James got 4,000 people. Big turnout for a senate candidate.

[Xing]

Vukmir, since Wisconsin is a bit to the right of Michigan, but that's basically like saying that 0.5% is greater than 0.4%.

[7,052,770]

Realistically neither, but Vukmir. For example, none of these candidates are more likely to win than Vukmir according to 538, but all of them are more likely than James:

According to 538, he's less likely to win than Jane Raybould, David Baria, Kevin DeLeon, Corey Stewart, Jim Renacci, or Lou Barletta.

[ON Progressive]

Both of them have literally zero chance.

[SN2903]

Both of them have literally zero chance.

Same thing was said about Trump in 2016 in MI. 4k at the rally tonight for James. Guys who get 4k at a rally have a chance..

[ON Progressive]

Both of them have literally zero chance.

Same thing was said about Trump in 2016 in MI. 4k at the rally tonight for James. Guys who get 4k at a rally have a chance..

GuYs WhO GeT 4K aT a RaLlY HaVe a ChAnCe.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Both of them have literally zero chance.

Same thing was said about Trump in 2016 in MI. 4k at the rally tonight for James. Guys who get 4k at a rally have a chance..

Absolutely adorable logic, and probably how most people outside of Atlas think about politics. Kind of refreshing actually, considering the type of insanity that's been promulgating the forums recently. This seems quaint in comparison.

[Wisconsin+17]

Vukmir. Already had her up. No mention of the MN special seat?

[ON Progressive]

Vukmir. Already had her up. No mention of the MN special seat?

That one also has a zero percent chance of flipping.

[History505]

Neither. Not every election is going to be like 2016.

[UncleSam]

James and it isn’t even close. James inspires people the way Beto does and Atlas has been underrating his abilities as a candidate all cycle long. He won’t get blown out though his odds of winning are extremely low due to the environment and Michigan’s lean.

Vukmir is a mediocre establishment candidate who inspires precisely no one. She won’t lose by 20 due to the governor race but she has zero chance of winning.

[mgop]

i hope vukmir, orthodox woman from wisconsin

[Former President tack50]

Neither. If looking for a possible Republican upset wouldn't New Jersey or the MN special be better choices?

[UncleSam]

Neither. If looking for a possible Republican upset wouldn't New Jersey or the MN special be better choices?

Two states where Clinton won vs two states where Trump won? I guess if Menendez gets indicted or something but then it wouldn't even be a huge upset.  If they were running  for NJ-Gov maybe.

[SN2903]

James and it isn’t even close. James inspires people the way Beto does and Atlas has been underrating his abilities as a candidate all cycle long. He won’t get blown out though his odds of winning are extremely low due to the environment and Michigan’s lean.

Vukmir is a mediocre establishment candidate who inspires precisely no one. She won’t lose by 20 due to the governor race but she has zero chance of winning.

Best post I have seen on here in a long time! I agree with the O'Rourke comparison on the GOP side. James gives off a JFK vibe big time in my opinion.

[beesley]

James, but neither of them should come close to winning.

[Skye]

Boy, someone's really pushing for James around here. 

[😥]

Vukmir

[Wisconsin+17]

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We'll see. Trump came very close in MN.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2220/Which-party-will-win-Minnesota-in-the-2016-presidential-election

Had it flipped, you'd have gained 50x what you invested.

[MT Treasurer]

Jones, and it’s really not close either.

[Politician]

Jones, and it’s really not close either.

He already pulled off an upset as a Democrat against a pedophile in Alabama.

[ElectionsGuy]

Michigan is known for bad polling, but he's so far down that it's not going to happen. Vukmir is more likely, but not "likely" at all.

[TML]

If I had to pick, I'd go with Vukmir in WI.

But seriously, I think the chances of either of these two candidates actually winning is less than 5%.

[Suburbia]

I voted John James but he has not run a good Senate campaign.

Maybe Vukmir.

Neither will win.

Stabenow and Baldwin will win by 10-20 points, if not, 5-10.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

We'll see. Trump came very close in MN.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2220/Which-party-will-win-Minnesota-in-the-2016-presidential-election

Had it flipped, you'd have gained 50x what you invested.

That is a horrifyingly dishonest take. On November 7th, the day before the election, that market had Trump winning at 11%. 538 had the odds at 15%. The reason why it shows the odds at 2% is because the election was resolved, the market reached an equilibrium, and no more profit could be made because of transaction costs.

There's another important lesson to be learnt from this. Nate Silver's 1st law of polling is that when consensus deviates from polls, consensus usually has negative value. Most people thought that Clinton would outperform the polls in 2016, and she underperformed. Mitt Romney, Ed Gillespie, Marine Le Pen, Theresa May, Senate Democrats in 2014, and a lot of other candidates have had the same effect. So, if the betting price for one party is consistently higher on Predictit than polls would predict, they'll probably underperform.

Well,
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2890/How-many-House-seats-will-the-GOP-hold-after-2018-midterms, Predictit thinks that there is a 66% chance Democrats win the House. 538 thinks there's a 84% chance that they win. We'll see if the law holds, but I'd bet against the armchair pundits 9 times out of 10.