MI Senate - What Percent chance does John James have of winning MI?
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  MI Senate - What Percent chance does John James have of winning MI?		 « previous next »
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Question: What percent chance does John James have of winning MI?
#1
50+		  
#2
40-50%		  
#3
30-40%		  
#4
20-30%		  
#5
10-20%		  
#6
Under 10%		  
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Total Voters: 66

Author Topic: MI Senate - What Percent chance does John James have of winning MI?  (Read 1682 times)
SN2903
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« on: October 16, 2018, 09:16:21 PM »
I am gonna go with 20-30% as of now but I would like to see more data. I def think the race is tightening. The last one has it 9. The Kavanaugh thing def hurt the dems big time in the Senate. The MI polls were way off for the dem primary in 2016 and the general election...
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Nyvin
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2018, 09:34:55 PM »
538 says 0.7% chance for context.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2018, 09:48:07 PM »
Lol <1%
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2018, 09:49:32 PM »
0.001%
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2018, 09:49:50 PM »
0% (sane)
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2018, 09:56:03 PM »
<1%, Michigan is Safe D. If polls at the end of this month start showing Stabenow only up 1-3%, then we'll talk.
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SN2903
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2018, 10:00:00 PM »
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 16, 2018, 09:56:03 PM
<1%, Michigan is Safe D. If polls at the end of this month start showing Stabenow only up 1-3%, then we'll talk.
Most polls showed Hillary up 4-7 pts in 2016 the week before the election in Michigan.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2018, 10:14:50 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on October 16, 2018, 10:00:00 PM
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 16, 2018, 09:56:03 PM
<1%, Michigan is Safe D. If polls at the end of this month start showing Stabenow only up 1-3%, then we'll talk.
Most polls showed Hillary up 4-7 pts in 2016 the week before the election in Michigan.

Yeah well, Stabenow is up 17-20 points and unlike Hillary, she's won the state three times.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2018, 10:26:20 PM »
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 16, 2018, 09:56:03 PM
<1%, Michigan is Safe D. If polls at the end of this month start showing Stabenow only up 1-3%, then we'll talk.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2018, 10:31:12 PM »
Quote from: Pope Michael Bolton on October 16, 2018, 10:26:20 PM
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 16, 2018, 09:56:03 PM
<1%, Michigan is Safe D. If polls at the end of this month start showing Stabenow only up 1-3%, then we'll talk.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2018, 10:32:09 PM »
-10%.
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2018, 11:00:12 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on October 16, 2018, 10:00:00 PM
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 16, 2018, 09:56:03 PM
<1%, Michigan is Safe D. If polls at the end of this month start showing Stabenow only up 1-3%, then we'll talk.
Most polls showed Hillary up 4-7 pts in 2016 the week before the election in Michigan.

Fair enough, but that's very different from one poll showing Stabenow up 9% while most others show a double digit lead. If polls tighten considerably, then most of us will reconsider calling Stabenow safe, but until then, no reason to believe that she's in trouble.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2018, 11:19:16 PM »
25%
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2018, 11:49:39 PM »
According to 538, he's less likely to win than Jane Raybould, David Baria, Kevin DeLeon, Corey Stewart, Jim Renacci, or Lou Barletta.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2018, 08:14:58 AM »
Quote from: Pope Michael Bolton on October 16, 2018, 10:26:20 PM
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 16, 2018, 09:56:03 PM
<1%, Michigan is Safe D. If polls at the end of this month start showing Stabenow only up 1-3%, then we'll talk.
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History505
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2018, 08:27:07 AM »
Quote from: SN2903 on October 16, 2018, 10:00:00 PM
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 16, 2018, 09:56:03 PM
<1%, Michigan is Safe D. If polls at the end of this month start showing Stabenow only up 1-3%, then we'll talk.
Most polls showed Hillary up 4-7 pts in 2016 the week before the election in Michigan.
Not everything is going to happen like the 2016 election, you know.
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Politician
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2018, 08:28:19 AM »
This thread is Peak Atlas. Anyway, 0% of course. He would lose even in a Clinton midterm.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2018, 08:34:19 AM »
5%-10%. It’s definitely higher than Vukmir's or Barletta's chances, but that’s really not saying much.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2018, 09:14:55 AM »
According to FiveThirtyEight, roughly 0.5%.
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SN2903
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2018, 10:01:07 AM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on October 16, 2018, 10:14:50 PM
Quote from: SN2903 on October 16, 2018, 10:00:00 PM
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 16, 2018, 09:56:03 PM
<1%, Michigan is Safe D. If polls at the end of this month start showing Stabenow only up 1-3%, then we'll talk.
Most polls showed Hillary up 4-7 pts in 2016 the week before the election in Michigan.

Yeah well, Stabenow is up 17-20 points and unlike Hillary, she's won the state three times.
Latest poll is 9. Those double digits polls are wayyy too old.
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Skye
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2018, 10:51:50 AM »
If you are counting on a glaring polling error again, what does that say about the state of this race?
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2018, 01:34:29 PM »
Quote from: Politician on October 17, 2018, 08:28:19 AM
This thread is Peak Atlas. Anyway, 0% of course. He would lose even in a Clinton midterm.
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2018, 01:36:10 PM »
0.1% lol this wasn't gonna flip unless it was a clinton midterm and even then.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2018, 11:01:25 PM »
I should be a James Jones voter, but meh. Wrong candidate for Michigan with his positions. Stabenow should take this easily.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2018, 11:05:24 PM »
The thing about James is that his policies don't fit the state and it's not a favorable election cycle for him. He'd probably have a chance at beating Stabenow if this was a Clinton midterm and he pivoted more towards the center, but Trump is the President and James is more interested in pandering to the MAGA crowd and going on Fox News to scream about the evils of the Left and socialism.
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