Republicans in Pennsylvania.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jeb, was the prohibited favorite to win in 2016, but he didnt turn out to be the type of candidate. Rubio or Carson are the best candidate against Clinton. But, GOP is probably goung to lose the state anyways while they focus on OH & Va, while Dems will turn to Iowa & Colorado.

[Redban]

No Republican can win Pennsylvania in anything but a landslide.  It's like Minnesota, remarkably consistent in being a Democrat-leaning state.

Here are the last five presidential election:

2012   46.58% 2,680,434   51.97% 2,990,274
2008   44.15% 2,655,885   54.47% 3,276,363
2004   48.42% 2,793,847   50.92% 2,938,095
2000   46.43% 2,281,127   50.60% 2,485,967
1996   39.97% 1,801,169   49.17% 2,215,819

I wouldn't call it "remarkably consistent." The difference between the state and the national average is more revealing:

2000:  2.2% Dems
2004: 2.62% Dems
2008: 1.5% Dems
2012: 0.8% Dems

If a GOP candidate can pull off a solid 3% victory nationwide, then Pennsylvania is likely his or her state.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

No Republican can win Pennsylvania in anything but a landslide.  It's like Minnesota, remarkably consistent in being a Democrat-leaning state.

Here are the last five presidential election:

2012   46.58% 2,680,434   51.97% 2,990,274
2008   44.15% 2,655,885   54.47% 3,276,363
2004   48.42% 2,793,847   50.92% 2,938,095
2000   46.43% 2,281,127   50.60% 2,485,967
1996   39.97% 1,801,169   49.17% 2,215,819

I wouldn't call it "remarkably consistent." The difference between the state and the national average is more revealing:

2000:  2.2% Dems
2004: 2.62% Dems
2008: 1.5% Dems
2012: 0.8% Dems

If a GOP candidate can pull off a solid 3% victory nationwide, then Pennsylvania is likely his or her state.

Very interesting that from '00 to '04 the gap widened (nation moved right but PA stayed where it was) and narrowed in 2008 when there was a Democratic landslide (nation moved back left toward PA) but in 2012 the gap narrowed again despite the national move to the right. That means PA swung nearly 4 points to the right.

[°Leprechaun]

I voted Cruz. I think that Republicans in my state are fairly conservative (Toomey, Santorum).
By April 26th I think that Cruz could very likely still be in the race. There will only be about 2-4 choices left, by then. It would not surprise me if Trump or another top candidate (Carson or Rubio) win, however. Of course, it is not easy to say exactly who will still be in the race by then, but there won't be many left. Does anyone really know what will happen in February of March?

[madelka]

You cite all of these numbers, but your math can't stump Trump. He's gonna win African Americans, win hispanics, win all races because they all love TRUMP. He can't be stopped. He's gonna be President. Get used to it.

Yawn.

[JonathanSwift]

PPP did general election polling for Pennsylvania in October. Their results:

Carson vs. Clinton: Carson +4
Christie vs. Clinton: Christie +4
Clinton vs. Rubio: Rubio +3
Clinton vs. Trump: Trump +2
Clinton vs. Fiorina: Fiorina +1
Clinton vs. Kasich: Clinton +2
Bush vs. Clinton: Clinton +5
Clinton vs. Cruz: Clinton +6
Clinton vs. Santorum: Clinton +8
Clinton vs. Huckabee: Clinton +9

[MT Treasurer]

PPP did general election polling for Pennsylvania in October. Their results:

Carson vs. Clinton: Carson +4
Christie vs. Clinton: Christie +4
Clinton vs. Rubio: Rubio +3
Clinton vs. Trump: Trump +2
Clinton vs. Fiorina: Fiorina +1
Clinton vs. Kasich: Clinton +2
Bush vs. Clinton: Clinton +5
Clinton vs. Cruz: Clinton +6
Clinton vs. Santorum: Clinton +8
Clinton vs. Huckabee: Clinton +9

Hmm, I'm not entirely convinced. PA always threatens to go GOP, but then it never materializes. I feel like this is a plausible map for a Clinton vs. Trump election.

PA is just too inelastic for a Republican to win it in a presidential year

[Maxwell]

PPP did general election polling for Pennsylvania in October. Their results:

Carson vs. Clinton: Carson +4
Christie vs. Clinton: Christie +4
Clinton vs. Rubio: Rubio +3
Clinton vs. Trump: Trump +2
Clinton vs. Fiorina: Fiorina +1
Clinton vs. Kasich: Clinton +2
Bush vs. Clinton: Clinton +5
Clinton vs. Cruz: Clinton +6
Clinton vs. Santorum: Clinton +8
Clinton vs. Huckabee: Clinton +9

Hmm, I'm not entirely convinced. PA always threatens to go GOP, but then it never materializes. I feel like this is a plausible map for a Clinton vs. Trump election.

PA is just too inelastic for a Republican to win it in a presidential year

What about solid Democrat New Hampshire? Wouldn't shillary win it?

[Orser67]

Christie could definitely have an advantage over a generic Republican in the vital Philly suburbs, although I'm curious about how his low popularity in New Jersey would affect his popularity in PA. But I think his name definitely still has some cache in the region. Kasich isn't a terrible candidate for the state either.

[Broken System]

My prediction: in this election, Pennsylvania goes right of Wisconsin.

[Clark Kent]

My prediction: in this election, Pennsylvania goes right of Wisconsin.

It already did in 2012.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

My prediction: in this election, Pennsylvania goes right of Wisconsin.

It already did in 2012.

My prediction is that PA votes slightly to the right of the nation as a whole in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, that doesnt mean anything. If WI votes 3.5 Dem and Pa votes 51/49 Dem, like it did in 2004, it doesnt mean the GOP won it.

[Nyvin]

My prediction: in this election, Pennsylvania goes right of Wisconsin.

It already did in 2012.

My prediction is that PA votes slightly to the right of the nation as a whole in 2016.

That still won't mean the GOP won either one...

[Devils30]

Virginia will go to the left of PA this time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not too sure about Va, it certainly didnt go that way in Nov, in which the GOP held ground.  Dems dont need the South. But a 51/49 Pa victory is good enough. Trump is gonna contest NH.

[Sir Mohamed]

Probably Trump; maybe Rubio, Christie or Kasich.

[Asian Nazi]

No Republican can win Pennsylvania in anything but a landslide.  It's like Minnesota, remarkably consistent in being a Democrat-leaning state.

Here are the last five presidential election:

2012   46.58% 2,680,434   51.97% 2,990,274
2008   44.15% 2,655,885   54.47% 3,276,363
2004   48.42% 2,793,847   50.92% 2,938,095
2000   46.43% 2,281,127   50.60% 2,485,967
1996   39.97% 1,801,169   49.17% 2,215,819

I wouldn't call it "remarkably consistent." The difference between the state and the national average is more revealing:

2000:  2.2% Dems
2004: 2.62% Dems
2008: 1.5% Dems
2012: 0.8% Dems

If a GOP candidate can pull off a solid 3% victory nationwide, then Pennsylvania is likely his or her state.

This is only "revealing" if you believe that the nation is naturally split roughly 50-50 and that universal swing is a thing in real life.  In reality, as I demonstrated, Pennsylvania hasn't gotten any more Republican, the nation as a whole has just leaned towards the Democrats in Presidential elections since 1992.  This might be a fluke rather than some sort of reveal about long-term trends, but it's still a stretch to assume that PA will swing roughly in line with the rest of the nation, which, as you demonstrated, it hasn't in the past, because states never do in real life.  I will believe that Pennsylvania can be won by the GOP in a Presidential election if they manage to ever top their 2004 numbers.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Pennsylvania is certainly a competitive state, but it always goes D at the last minute, like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown.  Michigan and Wisconsin are the same way.  However, if current trends hold, I suspect Michigan and Wisconsin will go R first.

[henster]

Obama barely contested PA in 2012, Romney owned the airwaves in the state for the remaining days of the election, so I think its a mistake to take much from the 2012 results when the state wasn't as heavily contested as CO or OH.

[Nyvin]

Pennsylvania is certainly a competitive state, but it always goes D at the last minute, like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown.  Michigan and Wisconsin are the same way.  However, if current trends hold, I suspect Michigan and Wisconsin will go R first.

Michigan will not be going R in the foreseeable future...

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Pennsylvania is certainly a competitive state, but it always goes D at the last minute, like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown.  Michigan and Wisconsin are the same way.  However, if current trends hold, I suspect Michigan and Wisconsin will go R first.

Michigan will not be going R in the foreseeable future...

Based on what?  Bush only lost there by 5 points in 2000 and 3 points in 2004.  Obama carried Michigan by wider margins, but those were both strong D years nationally.