Republicans in Pennsylvania.

[Senator Cris]

??

[Asian Nazi]

No Republican can win Pennsylvania in anything but a landslide.  It's like Minnesota, remarkably consistent in being a Democrat-leaning state.

Here are the last five presidential election:

2012   46.58% 2,680,434   51.97% 2,990,274
2008   44.15% 2,655,885   54.47% 3,276,363
2004   48.42% 2,793,847   50.92% 2,938,095
2000   46.43% 2,281,127   50.60% 2,485,967
1996   39.97% 1,801,169   49.17% 2,215,819

As you can see, the Democrat floor is at or near 50%.

And before that the only times the Republicans managed to get over 50% were 1988 (Bush did remarkably well in Northern suburbs and won the popular vote by over 7% yet he still only managed 50.7% in PA), and the 1984 and 1972 landslides.

Until the GOP can win back the Philadelphia suburbs, they have no chance at this state outside of the fantasies of Atlas Republicans.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Oh, I see you all missed the memo that Trump is coming to Philadelphia to speak about the horror of black-on-black crime.

Christie actually performed well in the Q poll relative to the competition, no? Definitely was ahead of Hillary. Rubio might win. Paul has lost his grasp. Kasich has no shot.

But Trump has the best shot obviously.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio or Kasich. Trump will fall short, he has a better shot in NH.

[Vega]

KaSick.

[DemPGH]

Kasich or Trump overall, although PA GOPers would probably prefer a Carson or someone like Corbett.

They won't win PA, though, no matter how much some would like to pretend otherwise. PA is the Dems' version of Arizona.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Dems placing the convention site on Philly instead of Ohio, shows you how badly they want Pennsylvania 20 electors and combined with CO & NV gets them to 270 or 272.

Clinton's overall approvals are improving, its not gonna be long before she solidifies her leads in Pennsylvania and elsewhere

[Kingpoleon]

Kasich
Christie
Carson
Paul
Rubio
Trump


In that order.

[Maxwell]

Gotta be Christie. Perhaps TRUMP even.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

To those saying Kasich -- is it because of Ohio's proximity to Pennsylvania (or even worse...his birthplace of Erie or whatever...). Be honest. No one here cares about Kasich, least of all in the Philly metro which is where the GOP must make huge gains.

[Asian Nazi]

To those saying Kasich -- is it because of Ohio's proximity to Pennsylvania (or even worse...his birthplace of Erie or whatever...). Be honest. No one here cares about Kasich, least of all in the Philly metro which is where the GOP must make huge gains.

It's because they buy into the fallacy that moderate = electable.

Well, that and the fallacy that Kasich = moderate.

[MT Treasurer]

d32123, so you're basically saying that PA is a solid D state while NH is a Toss-up, correct? And then you expect people to take you seriously?

[Asian Nazi]

d32123, so you're basically saying that PA is a solid D state while NH is a Toss-up, correct? And then you expect people to take you seriously?

I'd give you a real answer but considering how much you obsess over this you're either a troll or have some serious issues.

[MT Treasurer]

d32123, so you're basically saying that PA is a solid D state while NH is a Toss-up, correct? And then you expect people to take you seriously?

I'd give you a real answer but considering how much you obsess over this you're either a troll or have some serious issues.

It's not an obsession, it just doesn't make any sense to me. And spare me the "inelasticity" drivel. NH's supposed elasticity is mostly a myth.

[Sumner 1868]

d32123, so you're basically saying that PA is a solid D state while NH is a Toss-up, correct? And then you expect people to take you seriously?

I'd give you a real answer but considering how much you obsess over this you're either a troll or have some serious issues.

It's not an obsession, it just doesn't make any sense to me. And spare me the "inelasticity" drivel. NH's supposed elasticity is mostly a myth.

Romney did roughly the same in NH as PA. He did about .17% better in PA than NH. Bush in 2004 and McCain in 2008 had about the same margins in both states as well.

[EliteLX]

Stop the myth Donald Trump is anything close to more electable than other GOP'ers in a general election, jesus. All the trump voters in the polls are Lief fans and democrats.

You can't win a GE with 20% Hispanics and 6% of the Black Vote, and you ESPECIALLY can't win PA with anything close to those numbers if they contrast with the rest of your demographics.

[Suburbia]

Rubio. He can appeal in places like Hershey Park, Clio, Johnstown, etc. I can see Rubio winning Pennsylvania by 3 points. That could help Pat Toomey as well.

[Phony Moderate]

Trump's base is white working-class NE folks who aren't necessarily right-wing, so...

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Stop the myth Donald Trump is anything close to more electable than other GOP'ers in a general election, jesus. All the trump voters in the polls are Lief fans and democrats.

You can't win a GE with 20% Hispanics and 6% of the Black Vote, and you ESPECIALLY can't win PA with anything close to those numbers if they contrast with the rest of your demographics.

Yes, the 6% of Hispanics who make up the state will vastly swing this election. Overall, that extreme loss potential you mentioned only with one small subset is maybe 1% off the overall vote tally, but there are many many ways to make up for that even if it were to occur. Meanwhile, Trump really has nowhere to go but up with African-Americans...surely Trump taking the time to come speak specifically to them in Philadelphia next week is a good start, no? Don't see any GOPers other than Paul even trying that tactic.

I don't see why those numbers are special in someone's chance to win PA. He's going to really drive Rust Belt and white Mid-Atlantic moderate turnout. He is a solid choice.

[Maxwell]

You cite all of these numbers, but your math can't stump Trump. He's gonna win African Americans, win hispanics, win all races because they all love TRUMP. He can't be stopped. He's gonna be President. Get used to it.

[Comrade Funk]

Christie/Rubio probably gets the all important Philly suburbs support the most.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Probably Christie, followed by Rubio. Pennsylvania is unlikely to be the tipping-point state, though. If Republicans win Pennsylvania, they've probably already won.

[TJ in Oregon]

Probably Christie, followed by Rubio. Pennsylvania is unlikely to be the tipping-point state, though. If Republicans win Pennsylvania, they've probably already won.

^^

Yup these two are probably the most likely with Kasich as a third possibility. Trump would get obliterated, though admittedly PA is one of the few swing states where he would crack 40%.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Rubio, Christie, Paul.

[iuojg]

Stop the myth Donald Trump is anything close to more electable than other GOP'ers in a general election, jesus. All the trump voters in the polls are Lief fans and democrats.

You can't win a GE with 20% Hispanics and 6% of the Black Vote, and you ESPECIALLY can't win PA with anything close to those numbers if they contrast with the rest of your demographics.

Trump along with Carson have the highest proportion of black supporters. This is in the ~20% range.

The blacks who support Trump are motivated by a mutual hatred of illegals more than anything else. Trump does fine with non-mexican/non-central american hispanics. He would do the worst by far in california obviously, but that doesn't mean much anyway.

Cruz is by far the least electable GOP candidate, Trump at least has working-class support. Cruz is just a fanatic social conservative who has no appeal to blue staters.