Strache (FPÖ) for Chancellor 2013 ? Not necessarily.

[minionofmidas]

My main issue with the FPÖ is that they need to take lessons from the SVP and Lega Nord when it comes to crude, stereotypical depictions of ethnic minorities.

When it comes to this, the FPÖ aims to keep an eye on their future electoral victories:

The only real ethnic minority which can be argued that the FPÖ is against are the Turks (or other Muslims).

And Carinthian Slovenes, of course.


What's to keep SPÖ and ÖVP from negotiating? You don't need a "formateur" for a two-party coalition, that tradition belongs to countries where coalitions are frequently complex three-plus affairs.
Of course, I'm from Germany where we don't have this whole president-invites-someone-to-try-forming-a-government business anymore, thanks to how President Hindenburg used it. Parliament in supreme in choosing whatever chancellor it wants.
Also, of course, there's precedent in Austria of the same thing being done, back when Schüssel was hellbent on coalescing with Haider and becoming chancellor - while third in terms of votes (but tied for second on seats). President Klestil - an ÖVP man himself - gave the task of forming government to the SPÖ, who were the largest party. Schüssel formed his government anyways, and Klestil had to swear it in.

[Tender Branson]

This is becoming more likely again. Even worse: The so called "Grand Coalition" between SPÖ and ÖVP could have no majority next year if the corruption scandals are associated more and more with the ÖVP.

Imagine this 2013 election result:

30% FPÖ
27% SPÖ
21% ÖVP
15% Greens
  5% BZÖ
  2% Others

48% for the SPÖVP "Grand Coalition" and 50% for the other parties (FPÖ, Greens, BZÖ).

[The Mikado]

If the FPÖ gets the most seats, it deserves first crack at forming a government.  If (when) they realize that they have no natural coalition partners, they give up and let the SPÖ form the government.  Easy.

[Tender Branson]

If the FPÖ gets the most seats, it deserves first crack at forming a government.  If (when) they realize that they have no natural coalition partners, they give up and let the SPÖ form the government.  Easy.

But what if the FPÖ wins like in the scenario above and wants to form a coalition with the ÖVP, which agrees to be the FPÖ's junior partner. And then President Fischer says "well, the FPÖ sucks, I won't swear in a FPÖ/ÖVP coalition" ? That would be a democratic Super-GAU.

[Vosem]

Vaguely reminds me of the 2009 Israeli election (though Kadima is not exactly as threatening as the FPÖ). When the party that comes in first is clearly unable to form a government, you ask whoever is most likely. In Sweden, the fourth-largest party controlled the government from 1978-1979, though that's a bit of an extreme example.

[Tender Branson]

Vaguely reminds me of the 2009 Israeli election (though Kadima is not exactly as threatening as the FPÖ). When the party that comes in first is clearly unable to form a government, you ask whoever is most likely. In Sweden, the fourth-largest party controlled the government from 1978-1979, though that's a bit of an extreme example.

I wouldn't even see the FPÖ in government as "threatening" as most people would expect them to be at the first thought. If the ÖVP is their junior partner, they would serve as the "checks and balance" party, so that the FPÖ could not pass measures that the extreme right wing of the party wants. Nonetheless, such a government would be a failure in my opinion mostly because of the international backlash that can be expected which would result in a bad image once again for the country and because we have already seen that if the Right is in power in Austria, like between 2000 and 2006, it only results in massive incompetence, (military) waste and corruption.