Strache (FPÖ) for Chancellor 2013 ? Not necessarily.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday, President Fischer (SPÖ) announced that - if Strache's FPÖ would win the next parliamentary elections in 2013 - Strache would have no right to form the next Austrian government.

Normally, the President instructs the winner of the election to form a coalition government.

http://derstandard.at/1303291325115/Nach-moeglichem-Wahlsieg-Fischer-koennte-Strache-Angelobung-verweigern

What do you think about this ?

If the FPÖ really comes in first in 2013, should Fischer instruct Strache to form the government because he's the rightful winner of a democratic election or should Fischer be able to appoint the 2nd placed party leader to form the government ?

Discuss.

There are already more than 1000 postings on the Standard website, so this is very controversial.

[Franzl]

Of course Strache should be given the opportunity to form government if he wins the election.

Frightening of course.....but that's democracy for you.

[Tender Branson]

Normally, I would be very split about this, but the fact that Strache has almost a zero % chance to become chancellor in 2013 leads me to the following opinion:

I think he should be appointed to form the government for democratic reasons and to respect the voter will.

The really important question is: Which party would enter a coalition with the FPÖ ?

Answer: None.

The BZÖ is too weak and would never enter a coalition with the FPÖ because the top-party leaders don't like each other. Together they would have at best 35% and that is not enough.

The Greens ? LOL.

The SPÖ wouldn't either, because the left-wing of the party would go nuts about the possibility of making the junior partner in a Nationalist-Socialist government.

The ÖVP would rather prefer making the junior partner in a Grand Coalition with the SPÖ than being humiliated as the junior partner for 5 years in a FPÖ-ÖVP coalition.

The only interesting scenario would arise if the Grand Coalition would be left without a parliamentary majority ...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Austria's electoral system is proportional, right ? Thus, there's no chance FPÖ could get an absolute majority, and therefore there is absolutely no reason to consider him as the "natural" chancellor. Fischer should absolutely not appoint him, he should instead pick the best of traditional parties and tell him to form a great coalition. Of course, if it's the ÖVP, this just won't happen...

[Hash]

If he gets the confidence of a majority of the Parliament, then he has all the rights in the world to govern. If not, he can go fly a kite.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     If the FPÖ has no chance of winning outright or forming a governing coalition, why would Fischer make such an announcement? Try to depress the FPÖ vote?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The only interesting scenario would arise if the Grand Coalition would be left without a parliamentary majority ...

Grand Coalition + greens?

[Insula Dei]

The HoS should appoint someone who can form a majority government. If there's a majority without Strache that means he would have been unable to form a government if asked.

[You kip if you want to...]

What's the polling looking like?

[Tender Branson]

What's the polling looking like?

An average of the last polls:

25-29% FPÖ
26-28% SPÖ
20-24% ÖVP
13-16% Greens
  5-11% BZÖ

[Antonio the Sixth]

So 30-40% of Austrians are racist ?

And LOL ÖVP...

[Tender Branson]

So 30-40% of Austrians are racist ?

And LOL ÖVP...

No, just the FPÖ-base, about 15% are backwards idiots - the rest are prostest voters, who usually tend to vote for "normal" parties (SPÖVP) but who are currently pissed at them.

[Boris]

My main issue with the FPÖ is that they need to take lessons from the SVP and Lega Nord when it comes to crude, stereotypical depictions of ethnic minorities.

[Iannis]

FPO didn't appear in politics yesterday. It has been present for 15 years in Haider's version. I don't think there's real racism and that FPO is a "different party" especially I don't think that its voters are so crazy, irrational and so different from the others. I think that OVP should choose an alliance with FPO, because the Grand Coalition is affecting OVP moreover, pushing out conservative voters.

[Leftbehind]

I don't know how Fischer can claim that Strache wouldn't have the right to try and form a government if the FPO won the election? That seems like an absurd statement to make.

[Insula Dei]

I don't know how Fischer can claim that Strache wouldn't have the right to try and form a government if the FPO won the election? That seems like an absurd statement to make.

'Winning the election' has a different meaning under PRish systems. It's very unlikely that Strache and his allies would have more than a third of either votes or seats, with almost 2/3rds of the population likely to actively loath him. If a potential coalition has 50%+1 of seats, you can't really claim they have no right to govern.

[Leftbehind]

I was already taking into account that Austria's PR, but winning the most votes and seats - and thus the one forming a coalition - is winning the election. If the majority of the country despise FPO, it should be hard-to-impossible for them to form a coalition, in which case it'll be passed over to the 2nd largest party. There's no sense in throwing out long-held sensible democratic conventions as soon as a distasteful party gets near to power.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If 70% of Austrians don't vote for a party, this party is not entitled to anything. Period.

[Leftbehind]

So Faymann shouldn't have expected to get first dibs at forming a coalition three years ago? Fischer can just pass it onto someone with even less of a mandate?

I don't even see what the problem is; if they're that detestable (which they are) they'll be unable to form a coalition and the non-rabid-Right can then try.

[Insula Dei]

Wasting time in forming a government is never a good idea. Why would Austrian politics have to be frozen for the 3-4 weeks it would take Strache to find out he can't form a government. Plus, when time starts ticking other parties might get nervous and do things they wpouldn't have done otherwise. Assigning a politician to form a government under the wrong circumstances always has the risk of turning out like a crisis.

[Leftbehind]

Because of its democratic symbolism? To retain the precedent where the party with the most votes is given due prominence? I don't really see how it'd waste much time either, if all of the major parties came out and categorically stated they wouldn't coalesce with them then at least Fischer is given a clear sign, and can then hand it over to SPO or whatever, rather than just passing over the FPO despite them winning the biggest mandate, breaking the longstanding electoral conventions.

[Insula Dei]

No, Strache would have to resign his mission first. Either way the mere fact of appointing him is a statement on behalf of Fischer that a) he believes Strache can form a government and b) that he believes such a government would be a good thing (aka a stable one, even before potential concerns over its policies). From where I'm standing, neither of this is likely to be the case.

[Foucaulf]

I may be unrealistic here, but what's the point of directly electing the President of Austria if it does not give him a mandate on his powers? He has the power to appoint anyone as formateur first, and it's not illegal for him to go through every party representative before going to Strache. In the face of authority, precendent is bunk.

Could anyone elaborate on the history behind the elected presidency, for that matter?

[Tender Branson]

My main issue with the FPÖ is that they need to take lessons from the SVP and Lega Nord when it comes to crude, stereotypical depictions of ethnic minorities.

When it comes to this, the FPÖ aims to keep an eye on their future electoral victories:

The only real ethnic minority which can be argued that the FPÖ is against are the Turks (or other Muslims).

On the other hand, the FPÖ actively courts many of the 1st and 2nd generation immigrants from Ex-Yugoslavia and Eastern Europe, because they know that Nationalism and (Catholic) Christianity and Family Values have a high standard with the Serbs, Poles etc.

That's the main reason why Strache is on the side of Serbia and he opposes the independent Kosovo.

In fact, one of my co-workers (who is born in Austria, but his parents are from Serbia) is a strong FPÖ-supporter.

That's also the reason why the FPÖ got 15% of votes among people with migration background in the last Vienna state elections ...

In this sense, the FPÖ is electorally strategically broader based than the Lega Nord or other extremist right-wing parties in Europe.

[ZuWo]

If the FPÖ really wins the elections, Strache must be given the right to form a coalition, even if it's doubtful whether he'd be able to do so. I would find it highly questionable if the Austrian President refused to at least ask Strache to look for a coalition partner simply because he does not share the political views of the FPÖ.