MA Special Election Watch Thread

[Benj]

If Brown stays out could Tisei be a potential contender for the Rupublicans?

Maybe, but he'd lose. He couldn't even beat Tierney, who was hugely damaged (and also in a less Democratic seat than the state). Also, Tisei, being gay, can't assemble the coalition of voters Brown did.

[Benj]

If Brown stays out could Tisei be a potential contender for the Rupublicans?

Maybe, but he'd lose. He couldn't even beat Tierney, who was hugely damaged (and also in a less Democratic seat than the state). Also, Tisei, being gay, can't assemble the coalition of voters Brown did.

What about the uncertainty/turnout issues of special elections?

Only to an extent. It would be literally impossible for the electorate to be more favorable to Republicans than the electorate that elected Brown was. Since Brown didn't win by much, that leaves little margin for error. Thus, a successful Republican candidate will have to both manage something approaching the 2010 turnout and keep the Brown coalition together. Tisei can do neither of those things.

He can't get 2010 turnout because he doesn't excite the Republican base like Brown did. He's not pretty, he's not dynamic, he's not charismatic. He feels like a career politician. No one's going to get stoked about voting for him. In addition, the Democrats are highly unlikely to be as disillusioned about their candidate as they were about Coakley--possible, but highly unlikely.

He can't maintain the Brown coalition because he's gay. The Brown coalition depended on socially conservative Democrats crossing over in order to stick up their fingers at Patrick/Obama/the Kennedys over Obama defeating Clinton, over gay marriage, over abortion, etc. They're not going to cross over to vote for a gay man, no matter what his views on other issues are. Period, end of story.

[Benj]

Lynch is jumping in, and it sounds as he was waiting until he lined up some serious union support for his move.

I am still of the opinion Lynch could undermine the Brown coalition more than Markay, but a Lynch vs a Tisei/Weld/Baker type would be an entirely different animal.

Lynch is basically Coakley 2.0. He wouldn't undermine the Brown coalition at all.

[Benj]

Really, Deval?

Sounds like exactly the sort of person who should be appointed as an interim candidate who isn't going to seek election. Why are people upset?

[Benj]

Really, Deval?

Sounds like exactly the sort of person who should be appointed as an interim candidate who isn't going to seek election. Why are people upset?

3 words: Senator. Barney. Frank

Whatever. Frank's lobbying for the position was pathetic and undignified. I never would have appointed him after his antics.

PPP # out: Brown leads 48/45 against Markey, 48/39 against Lynch- the gap is mostly name ID. Markey leads Lynch 52-19 in a primary.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/brownmarkey-would-start-out-as-toss-up.html

Great news. More results like this and maybe Lynch will drop out of the primary.

[Benj]

Stephen Lynch should pull a Lieberman and run a strong independent campaign against that Cambridge nutcase.

Stephen Lynch is a union man, and Ed Markey is in fact from Malden.

Indeed, Markey didn't even represent any of Cambridge until 2012, when the redistricting put about a third of it into his seat. Capuano used to represent all of Cambridge and still represents the bulk of it.

[Benj]

I'm disapointed that Markey is the best we can do. I'm sure he would be a good senator, but the Democrats need to do a much better job at pushing along young risers for these jobs. There wasn't someone in the State Senate that could of ran?

It opens up Markey's house seat for an up and comer, at least.

I guess you're right about that. Anyone have any names?

Carl Sciortino is the dream candidate you're looking for, I think.

[Benj]

I'm disapointed that Markey is the best we can do. I'm sure he would be a good senator, but the Democrats need to do a much better job at pushing along young risers for these jobs. There wasn't someone in the State Senate that could of ran?

It opens up Markey's house seat for an up and comer, at least.

I guess you're right about that. Anyone have any names?

Carl Sciortino is the dream candidate you're looking for, I think.

Carl Sciortino isn't from that district. Markey represents Metrowest; Sciortino is from Medford/Somerville.

Part of Carl's district, including his home, is in the district, which is half Metrowest and half north suburban Boston. Medford is in the 5th district, Somerville in the 7th. That said, yes, 4 precincts in Medford is not a broad base for becoming a congressman.

Metrowest is very insular. I feel like the Democrats who matter in places like Framingham would strongly prefer one of their own — that is, a suburban Democrat rather than an urban one.

Perhaps. Medford is not really urban, though, and Markey was from Malden, which is basically indistinguishable from Medford. I also think you overstate the degree to which MetroWest controls the primary. Obviously the primary will be regional, but push comes to shove I think Medford etc. outvote Framingham etc. in the district, all other factors being equal.

Also, Sciortino is running. No idea who from MetroWest might be.

[Benj]

I'm surprised by the age gap. Lynch DOMINATES Markey with people under 45 (maybe because of how long Markey has been in congress), which I feel is weird for a Pro-Life candidate. But then again, the pro-life crowd in Masschussets among younger folks is HUGE according to this poll, so it may not be too surprising.

That shows either the subsample is unreliable or Markey has a lot of room to grow by telling young voters that Lynch is a proud social conservative. Actually, the subsample is definitely unreliable because while there may be lots of pro-life young Dems in Mass., there's no way this state has an atypically large pro-life youth population.

The problem is that Lynch is not, in fact, a 'proud social conservative'. He's not even moderate or center-right on any issue other than abortion. He's anemic on LGBT issues and generic D on almost everything else.

... You just named the only two social issues that matter in a Democratic primary. What else is Lynch going to be a social conservative on?

[Benj]

Does it look like all three Republican candidates will get the requisite signatures? As I recall there was some question of that back when the snowstorm hit.

[Benj]

Markey leads the Republicans by about 20 points:

http://bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2013/03/06/UML%20MA%20RV%20March%202013%20-%20TOPLINES%20-%20FINAL.pdf

Lynch has decent leads as well.

That has some gems, like at least 15% of the population thinking special elections are both good ideas and wastes of money. Also, Dan Winslow has comically low name recognition, noticeably worse even than the other two Republican candidates. Why would that be?