One week left, predict final Virginia margin

[Non Swing Voter]

above

[Non Swing Voter]

Glenn Youngkin (R) 48.55658%
Terry McAuliffe (D) 48.4555345%
Princess Blanding (Liberation) 2.987855%

No way Princess gets that much.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

Seriously?

Even that dude who thought Arlington was located in Fairfax isn't predicting this.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

Seriously?

Even that dude who thought Arlington was located in Fairfax isn't predicting this.

TBF, MT Treasurer is not a complete hack when it comes to predicting elections. He's been consistent in thinking McAuliffe will still win, if fairly narrowly, due to partisanship.

Does he also delete incorrect predictions after the fact?  I've read that complaint here in multiple threads.  

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

If Youngkin wins (and I think he will), it won't be more by more than a point.

I would love to see a map showing how Youngkin pulls off a 3 point or even 1 point win. 

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

If Youngkin wins (and I think he will), it won't be more by more than a point.

I would love to see a map showing how Youngkin pulls off a 3 point or even 1 point win. 

Then don’t make a thread asking for opinions if you don’t opinions that go against yours.

I take it that's a no on the map

[Non Swing Voter]

McAuliffe 4-7%. Nationalizing this race and bringing national Dem figures like Obama will seal Youngkin's fate.

But how will Dems overcome Youngkin's devastating blackface ad (about a popular Gov. who isn't on the ticket)?  I mean, obviously Youngkin has his pulse on what Virginia voters care about (blackface from 30 years ago and CRT).

[Non Swing Voter]

Can the two people who voted Youngkin by 4-7, if not trolling, please explain this far fetched vote?

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

If Youngkin wins (and I think he will), it won't be more by more than a point.

I would love to see a map showing how Youngkin pulls off a 3 point or even 1 point win.  

Then don’t make a thread asking for opinions if you don’t opinions that go against yours.

I take it that's a no on the map

No, I’m saying don’t make opinion threads if you’re just gonna say “your opinion is wrong” the moment someone doesn’t predict an election the same way you do.

Or.  Don't post in an opinion thread if you don't want someone to ask you to explain it.  Especially when it's way outside of what even the most optimistic board republicans think.

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac +4 feels right, but really could go either way.

A part of me believes that things possibly could have tightened just because - while obviously herding - most of the polls are finding that result, which even though there are some questionable numbers under the hood - cannot be ignored. But another part of me feels as if pollsters are bungling the models like they did in CA, unsure of who is actually going to turnout.

Most recent bungle is likely the most telling.

[Non Swing Voter]

McAuliffe wins by 8-10, and that is generous. Virginia is deep blue now and only getting bluer. I stand by this as the California treatment kicks in. In a good Democratic year, this would be a 15-19% margin.

Based and bold.

[Non Swing Voter]

McAuliffe wins by 8-10, and that is generous. Virginia is deep blue now and only getting bluer. I stand by this as the California treatment kicks in. In a good Democratic year, this would be a 15-19% margin.

Based and bold.

If you say so We’ll see. I just about nailed the California recall margin….I know I know, stunning and brave.

I agree with you btw.  And I agreed about the CA recall too.  But apparently it's bold to predict T-Mac winning by more than 3 here even though it's quite obvious he will.

[Non Swing Voter]

McAuliffe wins by 8-10, and that is generous. Virginia is deep blue now and only getting bluer. I stand by this as the California treatment kicks in. In a good Democratic year, this would be a 15-19% margin.

Based and bold.

If you say so We’ll see. I just about nailed the California recall margin….I know I know, stunning and brave.

I agree with you btw.  And I agreed about the CA recall too.  But apparently it's bold to predict T-Mac winning by more than 3 here even though it's quite obvious he will.

54 of 102 respondents in the survey have predicted McAuliffe by 4 or more, so I guess we're a bold bunch here.

That or the blue avatars promoting the horserace narrative are just very loud and outspoken in these threads but represent a tiny minority of people (kind of like how elections work generally now).

[Non Swing Voter]

Gonna go out on a limb here and say Youngkin + 1.  And of coruse Dems will spin it as “all politics is local”.

OK fine.  But even if that's the case.  Republicans have basically been saying:

1) T-Mac is running a terrible campaign
2) Joe Biden is super unpopular
3) Youngkin is an A+ candidate
4) GOP is enthused
5) Dems are deflated
6) Early turnout is down

So if T-Mac wins by a sizable margin, how will the GOP talking heads here spin it?  Or will they all just pretend it didn't happen like the CA Recall embarrassment?

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac by 6

this seems right right now.

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac by 6

this seems right right now.

I very much hope your correct.

The people saying Youngkin will win are mostly trolling. 

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac by 6

this seems right right now.

I very much hope your correct.

The people saying Youngkin will win are mostly trolling. 

What would you say is a good benchmark for the early vote in Fairfax?

I think that T-Mac should be hitting at minimum 75%.  If he's getting 79% then he's probably coasting to victory.  If he's getting 75% he should be fine.  Anything below 70% and I think it will be a long night.

[Non Swing Voter]

With the new polls from today and last night, my model's current prediction is:
McAuliffe: 1,552,425 votes
Youngkin: 1,386,022 votes
Blanding: 18,304 votes

The FOX News poll in particular caused McAuliffe's predicted total to drop by about 12,000 votes and Youngkin's to increase by about 14,000. It's a big swing but the model is still all-in on McAuliffe.

fairly reasonable.

[Non Swing Voter]

Tbh Northam probably wouldn't be having this same issue if he were running again. He's an actual good southern governor instead of a carpetbagging neoliberal from Syracuse, New York. I'm going to say Youngkin by under a point. This would D+5 minimum with Northam.

LOL

[Non Swing Voter]

Tbh Northam probably wouldn't be having this same issue if he were running again. He's an actual good southern governor instead of a carpetbagging neoliberal from Syracuse, New York. I'm going to say Youngkin by under a point. This would D+5 minimum with Northam.

LOL

I'm 100% correct. Northam would've outperformed McAuliffe in the southern part of the state and locked the GOP out of the race entirely.

The choice of candidate would not cause a 6 point difference.  And T-Mac would probably do better relative to Northam in NOVA, which is far more essential for Dems.  But for what it's worth I do agree that Northam would do a little bit better in the Virginia Beach area as he's from that region.

[Non Swing Voter]

Tbh Northam probably wouldn't be having this same issue if he were running again. He's an actual good southern governor instead of a carpetbagging neoliberal from Syracuse, New York. I'm going to say Youngkin by under a point. This would D+5 minimum with Northam.

LOL

I'm 100% correct. Northam would've outperformed McAuliffe in the southern part of the state and locked the GOP out of the race entirely.

The choice of candidate would not cause a 6 point difference.  And T-Mac would probably do better relative to Northam in NOVA, which is far more essential for Dems.  But for what it's worth I do agree that Northam would do a little bit better in the Virginia Beach area as he's from that region.

Dems are going to win NoVA anyway. Any potential R victory starts with turbocharged turnout and good margins down south. Might as well kill it at the source.

The only turbocharged turnout has been in NOVA so far.  And the attitude of "they will win NOVA anyway" doesn't work for the GOP anymore.  It's almost a third of the state and votes as a bloc.

[Non Swing Voter]

Tbh Northam probably wouldn't be having this same issue if he were running again. He's an actual good southern governor instead of a carpetbagging neoliberal from Syracuse, New York. I'm going to say Youngkin by under a point. This would D+5 minimum with Northam.

LOL

I'm 100% correct. Northam would've outperformed McAuliffe in the southern part of the state and locked the GOP out of the race entirely.

Jesus, it’s so aggravating seeing some Dem posters moving the goal post before the election has even started, honestly better mentally prepare for after the election. Instead of “yes our party is very unpopular in battleground states and we acknowledge that our party leader is very unpopular here and his agenda isn’t raggingly popular, hurting the rest of our candidates” it’s sh*t like “polarization wIlL saVe uS, we we we just need a bEttEr cAndidAte, the gQP is sUpPreSinG the vote, tHe bIdEn aPproVal poLls aRe mIsSing soMethIng that I don’t seEeEe, demOgRaphics this or that”
I’m really about to pop off on any Democrat who won’t just take the ing L (IF Youngkin wins) like I know they don’t know how to do...

How did GOP posters take the CA recall loss?  After all, they said the NO vote only passing by single digits would be proof of GOP making massive gains.  Did I miss something?  I don't quite recall them "TaKiNG the L BrO."  I do see a lot of them here though.  Almost lie thIs HaPPenS on BoTh SiDeS.  On the bright side, if T-Mac unexpectedly loses, I'm pretty sure Dems wont storm Richmond.

[Non Swing Voter]

Tbh Northam probably wouldn't be having this same issue if he were running again. He's an actual good southern governor instead of a carpetbagging neoliberal from Syracuse, New York. I'm going to say Youngkin by under a point. This would D+5 minimum with Northam.

LOL

I'm 100% correct. Northam would've outperformed McAuliffe in the southern part of the state and locked the GOP out of the race entirely.

Jesus, it’s so aggravating seeing some Dem posters moving the goal post before the election has even started, honestly better mentally prepare for after the election. Instead of “yes our party is very unpopular in battleground states and we acknowledge that our party leader is very unpopular here and his agenda isn’t raggingly popular, hurting the rest of our candidates” it’s sh*t like “polarization wIlL saVe uS, we we we just need a bEttEr cAndidAte, the gQP is sUpPreSinG the vote, tHe bIdEn aPproVal poLls aRe mIsSing soMethIng that I don’t seEeEe, demOgRaphics this or that”
I’m really about to pop off on any Democrat who won’t just take the ing L (IF Youngkin wins) like I know they don’t know how to do...

How did GOP posters take the CA recall loss?  After all, they said the NO vote only passing by single digits would be proof of GOP making massive gains.  Did I miss something?  I don't quite recall them "TaKiNG the L BrO."  I do see a lot of them here though.  Almost lie thIs HaPPenS on BoTh SiDeS.  On the bright side, if T-Mac unexpectedly loses, I'm pretty sure Dems wont storm Richmond.

Stuck in last months polls, are we?

I'm stuck in reality.  But enjoy your "polls" they wont mean much when Youngkin loses, will they?

[Non Swing Voter]

Tbh Northam probably wouldn't be having this same issue if he were running again. He's an actual good southern governor instead of a carpetbagging neoliberal from Syracuse, New York. I'm going to say Youngkin by under a point. This would D+5 minimum with Northam.

LOL

I'm 100% correct. Northam would've outperformed McAuliffe in the southern part of the state and locked the GOP out of the race entirely.

Jesus, it’s so aggravating seeing some Dem posters moving the goal post before the election has even started, honestly better mentally prepare for after the election. Instead of “yes our party is very unpopular in battleground states and we acknowledge that our party leader is very unpopular here and his agenda isn’t raggingly popular, hurting the rest of our candidates” it’s sh*t like “polarization wIlL saVe uS, we we we just need a bEttEr cAndidAte, the gQP is sUpPreSinG the vote, tHe bIdEn aPproVal poLls aRe mIsSing soMethIng that I don’t seEeEe, demOgRaphics this or that”
I’m really about to pop off on any Democrat who won’t just take the ing L (IF Youngkin wins) like I know they don’t know how to do...

How did GOP posters take the CA recall loss?  After all, they said the NO vote only passing by single digits would be proof of GOP making massive gains.  Did I miss something?  I don't quite recall them "TaKiNG the L BrO."  I do see a lot of them here though.  Almost lie thIs HaPPenS on BoTh SiDeS.  On the bright side, if T-Mac unexpectedly loses, I'm pretty sure Dems wont storm Richmond.

To be fair, a certain group of Dem voters stormed cities all across the US last summer because a man died of a fentanyl overdose while being restrained.

You've made 21 posts on this forum and one of them is this.  Pathetic. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Tbh Northam probably wouldn't be having this same issue if he were running again. He's an actual good southern governor instead of a carpetbagging neoliberal from Syracuse, New York. I'm going to say Youngkin by under a point. This would D+5 minimum with Northam.

LOL

I'm 100% correct. Northam would've outperformed McAuliffe in the southern part of the state and locked the GOP out of the race entirely.

Jesus, it’s so aggravating seeing some Dem posters moving the goal post before the election has even started, honestly better mentally prepare for after the election. Instead of “yes our party is very unpopular in battleground states and we acknowledge that our party leader is very unpopular here and his agenda isn’t raggingly popular, hurting the rest of our candidates” it’s sh*t like “polarization wIlL saVe uS, we we we just need a bEttEr cAndidAte, the gQP is sUpPreSinG the vote, tHe bIdEn aPproVal poLls aRe mIsSing soMethIng that I don’t seEeEe, demOgRaphics this or that”
I’m really about to pop off on any Democrat who won’t just take the ing L (IF Youngkin wins) like I know they don’t know how to do...

How did GOP posters take the CA recall loss?  After all, they said the NO vote only passing by single digits would be proof of GOP making massive gains.  Did I miss something?  I don't quite recall them "TaKiNG the L BrO."  I do see a lot of them here though.  Almost lie thIs HaPPenS on BoTh SiDeS.  On the bright side, if T-Mac unexpectedly loses, I'm pretty sure Dems wont storm Richmond.

To be fair, a certain group of Dem voters stormed cities all across the US last summer because a man died of a fentanyl overdose while being restrained.

You've made 21 posts on this forum and one of them is this.  Pathetic.  

It's true though. The Hennepin County medical examiner said Floyd had a potentially lethal dose of fentanyl in his system and still ruled it a homicide anyway. It was an obvious political decision. The sensationalized media headlines and politicization of this are what is pathetic.

No it's not.  We had an entire trial to determine this issue.  Again.  Pathetic.