One week left, predict final Virginia margin

[Ferguson97]

McAuliffe +5

[jamestroll]

Youngkin by 4

[Progressive Pessimist]

I was adamant about McAuliffe+6 for the longest time, but the Youngkin surge is real sadly. That said, he can't seem to get beyond being tied with McAuliffe in polls, and rarely getting more than 48% of the vote. That suggests to me that he still won't win in the end, but it's not what McAuliffe should want to see in this homestretch of this election. He at least isn't taking the race for granted like Mark Warner did in a similar situation back in 2014. Also the Youngkin surge may be a self-fulfilling prophecy that causes his own defeat. Any unenthused Democrats taking note may now be more galvanized to vote for McAuliffe and company...at least I hope. That existential fear of Republicans might be all the Democratic Party has left, electorally.

So with all that in mind I am now settling on McAuliffe+4 (51-47).

A fairly subpar margin objectively, but also what might be the floor for Democrats in the state now. And if it does end up this way, in it being a polling over-performance, contrary to the media's narrative, the goal-post moving may actually make it look more impressive than it actually is in then end.

I also am still open to Non Swing Voter, wbrocks, and Xing being vindicated by a potential McAuliffe victory that is even bigger. I hope the polls are way off again like they've been suggesting, just like in 2017 and in the California recall. That would go a long way into giving me at least some shred of hope for 2022 and beyond for our country.

So much for settling!

I am now updating my prediction to Youngkin+2 (50-48).

I don't believe in God, but I am so filled with despair for our country that I am calling upon him, or any other deity that is listening, to please help us all...or put us out of our misery.

[Duke of York]

Youngkin by 2

[BigSerg]

McAuliffe+ 1

[Xing]

Not going to go full-on doomer, but I think I underestimated how incompetent McAuliffe is and how much voters have turned on Democrats (for predictably shallow reasons, but the Democrats bear at least some of the blame for that.) Moving this to Lean D, maybe even Tilt, with McAuliffe winning by 3-3.5. Could be even worse than that if there’s a big ED surge in rural VA. Even if McAuliffe pulls this out, this is still humiliating, and Democrats need a serious game changer next year to avoid a mass extinction in November 2022.

[jamestroll]

Youngkin by 4 .

If he wins by less maybe ayala or herring could sneak by.

I'm not even entertaining or arguing the prospect of a tmac victory.

[THG]

Youngkin by like +0.4 now.

[MT Treasurer]

Not going to go full-on doomer, but I think I underestimated how incompetent McAuliffe is and how much voters have turned on Democrats (for predictably shallow reasons, but the Democrats bear at least some of the blame for that.) Moving this to Lean D, maybe even Tilt, with McAuliffe winning by 3-3.5. Could be even worse than that if there’s a big ED surge in rural VA. Even if McAuliffe pulls this out, this is still humiliating, and Democrats need a serious game changer next year to avoid a mass extinction in November 2022.

Now I hope you at least understand why it was so annoying to see you be so confident/adamant about McAuliffe "inevitably" winning by "more than expected". I don’t think that confidence was at all warranted in this environment with this D candidate, but +3-3.5 is a reasonable prediction.

[Not Me, Us]

I was adamant about McAuliffe+6 for the longest time, but the Youngkin surge is real sadly. That said, he can't seem to get beyond being tied with McAuliffe in polls, and rarely getting more than 48% of the vote. That suggests to me that he still won't win in the end, but it's not what McAuliffe should want to see in this homestretch of this election. He at least isn't taking the race for granted like Mark Warner did in a similar situation back in 2014. Also the Youngkin surge may be a self-fulfilling prophecy that causes his own defeat. Any unenthused Democrats taking note may now be more galvanized to vote for McAuliffe and company...at least I hope. That existential fear of Republicans might be all the Democratic Party has left, electorally.

So with all that in mind I am now settling on McAuliffe+4 (51-47).

A fairly subpar margin objectively, but also what might be the floor for Democrats in the state now. And if it does end up this way, in it being a polling over-performance, contrary to the media's narrative, the goal-post moving may actually make it look more impressive than it actually is in then end.

I also am still open to Non Swing Voter, wbrocks, and Xing being vindicated by a potential McAuliffe victory that is even bigger. I hope the polls are way off again like they've been suggesting, just like in 2017 and in the California recall. That would go a long way into giving me at least some shred of hope for 2022 and beyond for our country.

So much for settling!

I am now updating my prediction to Youngkin+2 (50-48).

I don't believe in God, but I am so filled with despair for our country that I am calling upon him, or any other deity that is listening, to please help us all...or put us out of our misery.

Take a break man. McAuliffe is going to win and even if he doesn't, the VA gubernatorial election is not that important. The sun is still gonna rise on November 3rd regardless of what happens in VA.

I would take a break from Atlas until after the election if I were you.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I was adamant about McAuliffe+6 for the longest time, but the Youngkin surge is real sadly. That said, he can't seem to get beyond being tied with McAuliffe in polls, and rarely getting more than 48% of the vote. That suggests to me that he still won't win in the end, but it's not what McAuliffe should want to see in this homestretch of this election. He at least isn't taking the race for granted like Mark Warner did in a similar situation back in 2014. Also the Youngkin surge may be a self-fulfilling prophecy that causes his own defeat. Any unenthused Democrats taking note may now be more galvanized to vote for McAuliffe and company...at least I hope. That existential fear of Republicans might be all the Democratic Party has left, electorally.

So with all that in mind I am now settling on McAuliffe+4 (51-47).

A fairly subpar margin objectively, but also what might be the floor for Democrats in the state now. And if it does end up this way, in it being a polling over-performance, contrary to the media's narrative, the goal-post moving may actually make it look more impressive than it actually is in then end.

I also am still open to Non Swing Voter, wbrocks, and Xing being vindicated by a potential McAuliffe victory that is even bigger. I hope the polls are way off again like they've been suggesting, just like in 2017 and in the California recall. That would go a long way into giving me at least some shred of hope for 2022 and beyond for our country.

So much for settling!

I am now updating my prediction to Youngkin+2 (50-48).

I don't believe in God, but I am so filled with despair for our country that I am calling upon him, or any other deity that is listening, to please help us all...or put us out of our misery.

Take a break man. McAuliffe is going to win and even if he doesn't, the VA gubernatorial election is not that important. The sun is still gonna rise on November 3rd regardless of what happens in VA.

I would take a break from Atlas until after the election if I were you.

I know, I'm a mess right now. I was actually already considering that after Virginia election no matter what happened. But yeah, I may just have to earlier now. It's been a rough month for me and bad political news is the last thing I really need on top of everything else that's happened to me this month.

[Duke of York]

I was adamant about McAuliffe+6 for the longest time, but the Youngkin surge is real sadly. That said, he can't seem to get beyond being tied with McAuliffe in polls, and rarely getting more than 48% of the vote. That suggests to me that he still won't win in the end, but it's not what McAuliffe should want to see in this homestretch of this election. He at least isn't taking the race for granted like Mark Warner did in a similar situation back in 2014. Also the Youngkin surge may be a self-fulfilling prophecy that causes his own defeat. Any unenthused Democrats taking note may now be more galvanized to vote for McAuliffe and company...at least I hope. That existential fear of Republicans might be all the Democratic Party has left, electorally.

So with all that in mind I am now settling on McAuliffe+4 (51-47).

A fairly subpar margin objectively, but also what might be the floor for Democrats in the state now. And if it does end up this way, in it being a polling over-performance, contrary to the media's narrative, the goal-post moving may actually make it look more impressive than it actually is in then end.

I also am still open to Non Swing Voter, wbrocks, and Xing being vindicated by a potential McAuliffe victory that is even bigger. I hope the polls are way off again like they've been suggesting, just like in 2017 and in the California recall. That would go a long way into giving me at least some shred of hope for 2022 and beyond for our country.

So much for settling!

I am now updating my prediction to Youngkin+2 (50-48).

I don't believe in God, but I am so filled with despair for our country that I am calling upon him, or any other deity that is listening, to please help us all...or put us out of our misery.

Take a break man. McAuliffe is going to win and even if he doesn't, the VA gubernatorial election is not that important. The sun is still gonna rise on November 3rd regardless of what happens in VA.

I would take a break from Atlas until after the election if I were you.

I know, I'm a mess right now. I was actually already considering that after Virginia election no matter what happened. But yeah, I may just have to earlier now. It's been a rough month for me and bad political is the last thing I really need on top of everything else that's happened to me this month.

I will also be leaving all political forums effective at midnight November second if we lose this election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I will also be leaving all political forums effective at midnight November second if we lose this election.

But November 2 of which year?

[Duke of York]

I will also be leaving all political forums effective at midnight November second if we lose this election.

But November 2 of which year?

This year

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

McAuliffe+4

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Youngkin by 3

[swf541]

mcauliffe +4-5

[SnowLabrador]

Youngkin by 3

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

T-Mac by 6

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac by 6

this seems right right now.

[Xing]

Not going to go full-on doomer, but I think I underestimated how incompetent McAuliffe is and how much voters have turned on Democrats (for predictably shallow reasons, but the Democrats bear at least some of the blame for that.) Moving this to Lean D, maybe even Tilt, with McAuliffe winning by 3-3.5. Could be even worse than that if there’s a big ED surge in rural VA. Even if McAuliffe pulls this out, this is still humiliating, and Democrats need a serious game changer next year to avoid a mass extinction in November 2022.

Now I hope you at least understand why it was so annoying to see you be so confident/adamant about McAuliffe "inevitably" winning by "more than expected". I don’t think that confidence was at all warranted in this environment with this D candidate, but +3-3.5 is a reasonable prediction.

I mean, I’m far from the only one or the most “confident” predictor. I think the dooming that a few posters are doing about how VA will now be a Safe R state is the most cringeworthy thing here.

[Duke of York]

T-Mac by 6

this seems right right now.

I very much hope your correct.

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac by 6

this seems right right now.

I very much hope your correct.

The people saying Youngkin will win are mostly trolling. 

[Xing]

T-Mac by 6

this seems right right now.

I very much hope your correct.

The people saying Youngkin will win are mostly trolling. 

What would you say is a good benchmark for the early vote in Fairfax?

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac by 6

this seems right right now.

I very much hope your correct.

The people saying Youngkin will win are mostly trolling. 

What would you say is a good benchmark for the early vote in Fairfax?

I think that T-Mac should be hitting at minimum 75%.  If he's getting 79% then he's probably coasting to victory.  If he's getting 75% he should be fine.  Anything below 70% and I think it will be a long night.