One week left, predict final Virginia margin

[Non Swing Voter]

above

[NewYorkExpress]

Glenn Youngkin (R) 48.55658%
Terry McAuliffe (D) 48.4555345%
Princess Blanding (Liberation) 2.987855%

[Non Swing Voter]

Glenn Youngkin (R) 48.55658%
Terry McAuliffe (D) 48.4555345%
Princess Blanding (Liberation) 2.987855%

No way Princess gets that much.

[Lord Admirale]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

[Roll Roons]

McAuliffe by 3.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

Seriously?

Even that dude who thought Arlington was located in Fairfax isn't predicting this.

[SnowLabrador]

Tossup, could go either way. My gut tells me Youngkin wins by a very narrow margin.

[Roll Roons]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

Seriously?

Even that dude who thought Arlington was located in Fairfax isn't predicting this.

TBF, MT Treasurer is not a complete hack when it comes to predicting elections. He's been consistent in thinking McAuliffe will still win, if fairly narrowly, due to partisanship.

[THG]

D+2.8.

There are so many signs that this race will be closer than expected, but I believe that partisanship will help T-Mac win. He probably wins by 1-3 points.

EDIT: TOSSUP.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

Seriously?

Even that dude who thought Arlington was located in Fairfax isn't predicting this.

TBF, MT Treasurer is not a complete hack when it comes to predicting elections. He's been consistent in thinking McAuliffe will still win, if fairly narrowly, due to partisanship.

Does he also delete incorrect predictions after the fact?  I've read that complaint here in multiple threads.  

[NewYorkExpress]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

If Youngkin wins (and I think he will), it won't be more by more than a point.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

If Youngkin wins (and I think he will), it won't be more by more than a point.

I would love to see a map showing how Youngkin pulls off a 3 point or even 1 point win. 

[Lord Admirale]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

Seriously?

Even that dude who thought Arlington was located in Fairfax isn't predicting this.

Ok

[Lord Admirale]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

If Youngkin wins (and I think he will), it won't be more by more than a point.

I would love to see a map showing how Youngkin pulls off a 3 point or even 1 point win.  

Then don’t make a thread asking for opinions if you don’t like opinions that go against yours.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

If Youngkin wins (and I think he will), it won't be more by more than a point.

I would love to see a map showing how Youngkin pulls off a 3 point or even 1 point win. 

Then don’t make a thread asking for opinions if you don’t opinions that go against yours.

I take it that's a no on the map

[Senator Spark]

T-Mac wins by 1-3%.

[Mexican Wolf]

I'm predicting around a 4% McAuliffe win.

[AGA]

Probably around a 4% McAuliffe win.

[CookieDamage]

McAuliffe 4-7%. Nationalizing this race and bringing national Dem figures like Obama will seal Youngkin's fate.

[MT Treasurer]

I think Youngkin barely pulls it off. I don't think the environment is good for Democrats in both NJ and VA, so I think it'll be Youngkin+3.

Seriously?

Even that dude who thought Arlington was located in Fairfax isn't predicting this.

TBF, MT Treasurer is not a complete hack when it comes to predicting elections. He's been consistent in thinking McAuliffe will still win, if fairly narrowly, due to partisanship.

Thanks, I’m at least trying to be less confident about my predictions after getting a lot of calls wrong in 2020 (and certainly being too smug about some of them and unjustly mocking those predictions* that went against my preconceptions). I also underestimated Ralph Northam rather substantially in 2017 (Lean D, Northam +3), but I don’t want to overcompensate for that by artificially inflating McAuliffe's advantage in this race when it’s clear that Youngkin has more things going in his favor than Gillespie. I feel like it’s gotten extremely difficult to make accurate predictions in general nowadays, and this really is one of the most frustrating things about following/analyzing elections today. I also think your predictions have been fairly decent (and I’ve always noticed that you tend to display no overconfidence/arrogance about your calls, which is a remarkable trait for someone posting on a forum like this). I’d also add that I applaud anyone who invests a lot of time and effort into coming up with models that don’t just factor in public/private polling to make these calls, even when their method is considered unconventional or unreliable. No one’s going to get it right all the time, of course. I always tend to take a step back and ask myself "If you hadn’t seen a single poll and weren’t posting on Atlas, how would you predict this race?" — sometimes, this can really help even if it’s extremely difficult in practice because some things are simply burned into our memory and the human brain can’t just 'intentionally forget.' Obviously you have to have an open mind and approach the entire thing objectively (i.e., not letting your "feelings" about states/candidates interfere with your judgment), but that too has gotten a lot more difficult in the last years given that we tend to have much more stubborn views, access those outlets/surround ourselves with those people who promote our narrative and think like we do**, or (as is often the case on this forum) are largely overwhelmed with one narrative/side that’s then easy to mistake for "reasonable conventional wisdom" when it’s really not. The funny thing is that my most accurate prediction was 2014, when I hadn’t yet joined this forum and wasn’t really that 'politically active.' Since then, I feel like it’s gotten progressively worse.

Also, I find it amusing how obsessed NSV is with that Fairfax County remark I made more than two years ago (IIRC). Just so everyone is aware of the relevant context: I obviously didn’t know which NOVA county/city he was from, so my response to one of his countless "The GOP is doomed" predictions was something along the lines of "Oh no, how can Republicans ever win without appealing to Fairfax County Non Swing Voters?". At no point did I suggest that Arlington is located in Fairfax County, and he of course knows that this was nothing more than a metonymy. It’s funny because one of the few times I genuinely tend to laugh out loud when browsing Atlas is whenever I see him reference that comment (which is hilarious because he presumably wants to get under my skin yet accomplishes the exact opposite). I’m even a little flattered that I’ve made such an impression on him, honestly.

*I do want to emphasize that even when I make some sarcistic posts (a habit of mine that’s really hard to get rid of), I never want anyone to get the impression that I’m somehow ridiculing them. There are very, very few posters on here who I find genuinely unpleasant (i.e., who really seem to have an irredeemably unpleasant, disrespectful, combative, and disingenuous personality), and I generally don’t have a hard time telling them apart from posters I just (strongly) disagree with but still enjoy interacting with (the vast majority of users).

**Ironically, the VA-GOV 2017 race was the first major election which made me realize this. After getting so used to polls underestimating Republicans and/or Republicans outperforming expectations in election after election (this was a general pattern in nearly every major election from 2013 to 2016), November 2017 was the first wake-up call that these things eventually change and that relying on them while downplaying the famed 'fundamentals' is a fool's errand.

[Non Swing Voter]

McAuliffe 4-7%. Nationalizing this race and bringing national Dem figures like Obama will seal Youngkin's fate.

But how will Dems overcome Youngkin's devastating blackface ad (about a popular Gov. who isn't on the ticket)?  I mean, obviously Youngkin has his pulse on what Virginia voters care about (blackface from 30 years ago and CRT).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’ll join the M+4 team.

[Morning in Atlas]

M+2

[Non Swing Voter]

Can the two people who voted Youngkin by 4-7, if not trolling, please explain this far fetched vote?

[BigSerg]

Terry McAuliffe +2