Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Non Swing Voter]

I will stop reading predictit and Twitter comments on this election. They are asinine.

No, Afghanistan will not doom mcauliffe. It certainly will not help him but Youngkin isn't exactly a military guy and a governor of Virginia has no impact or say in foreign policy.

Plus, many of the people who would switch from dems to the gop over this were a very tenous Democratic base anyway and were always going to vote for Trumpkin.

McCain and romney were more hawkish than Obama and they both lost the state.

Of course.  The only conceivable voters the GOP could pull over are rich Fairfax county voters who are fiscally conservative but socially liberal.  Therefore it made sense to nominate a Northern Virginia businessman like Youngkin.  The problem was that he has no personality and a very unlikable face.  So he can't even get his own voters motivated.  To do so he's already started with the ANTIFA and BLM/pro-cop veiled racist ads.  This might drum up his base where he needs it to be but it's going to doom him in NOVA.  The other problem is that Terry isn't a socialist so it's going to be harder to extract those NOVA voters from him. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Everyone should be prepared this November when Youngkin supporters retaliate after they lose.

All signs are pointing to a violent coup attempt in Richmond.

Nah, the MT Treasurers and SirWoodburys of the world will just lobby their legislators to vote in some voter suppression bill and get some ice cream and be fine.  Terry made it clear after Charlottesville that he's not playing around.

[Non Swing Voter]

It's amazing.  Republicans are so good at politics nationally but so bad at it in Virginia.  They are literally suing to remove the other sides candidate 2 months before the election.  Do they think this looks good?  And yeah, most people wont notice but this is a low turnout election and that's just going to rile up Democrats in a state where the partisan makeup is decidedly against the GOP.

[Non Swing Voter]

I feel a lot of people are underestimating youngkin. Don't forget that in 2013/2014, Cucinelli and Gillespie were doing worse in the polls than youngkin is now.

Also, as someone who's politically schizophrenic, I think Youngkin winning might be a good thing. Up until the end of July my big worry was minority rule. While I still want Thomas and Alito to go to ADX Florence - I feel the public health tyranny is the biggest problem in this country. This stuff can't go on forever. And if youngkin promises to get rid of all these mandates/restrictions - then good for him.

We don't currently have any mandates or restrictions in Virginia unless it's a private business asking customers to wear a mask or something, at least not for adults.  I live in Virginia and haven't once had to show proof that I've been vaccinated for any reason ever.  If I go into Starbucks now masks are "recommended" and entirely optional.  Everything else is basically honor code that you're vaccinated or else wear a mask.   School is starting soon and I'm not sure what certain counties are doing on that front. 

As to Youngkin, I can see why you'd think that given how Cucinelli did last time.  However, Virginia is a much different state than it was 7 years or so ago.  Fairfax was trending Dem then but the collar counties around it were still fairly Republican.  Now Loudoun country is extremely diverse and drives up Dem totals.  Richmond suburbs are changing too.  In 2013 VA was a lot more like NC, now it's a lot more like NJ.  Also, quite frankly, Youngkin sucks as a candidate.  He's very unlikable, his ads suck, there's clearly no strategy to his campaign.  He's flailing around.  Candidate quality still matters and he was a poor pick.

[Non Swing Voter]

One other thing to ad about Youngkin's piss poor performance.  This is exactly what happens when a party does back room deals to anoint a candidate in waiting that they think is more electable.  Dems did this with Hillary and look how that turned out.  When you actually have a real primary it tests candidate quality, even if you might get someone who is a little more partisan or who doesn't seem as good on paper.  I am sure people though Rubio was more electable than Trump at the time.  But the bottom line is when parties do that they shoot themselves in the foot because they get a Hillary or a Youngkin. 

[Non Swing Voter]

One other thing to ad about Youngkin's piss poor performance.  This is exactly what happens when a party does back room deals to anoint a candidate in waiting that they think is more electable.  Dems did this with Hillary and look how that turned out.  When you actually have a real primary it tests candidate quality, even if you might get someone who is a little more partisan or who doesn't seem as good on paper.  I am sure people though Rubio was more electable than Trump at the time.  But the bottom line is when parties do that they shoot themselves in the foot because they get a Hillary or a Youngkin.  

Even if you think Youngkin is doing poorly, it's not like Amanda Chase of all people would have been any better.

That's the conventional wisdom but I'm simply not sure at this point.  Youngkin is even less inspiring than empty suit Rubio.

[Non Swing Voter]

Well oiled Terry-train rolling out ads about abortion.

Flailing loser Trumpkin rolling out fear mongering ads with old white male cops nobody agrees with saying you wont be safe in Terry's Virginia.

Buuuut MT Treasurer and TarHeelGent said Terry's campaign sucks!!

[Non Swing Voter]

Is he trying to lose?

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1433187809368723456

He's run one of the dumbest campaigns I've ever seen in politics.  Basically re-running the Gillespie playbook in a poorer manner even though it was shown to be not at all effective.  Bringing a ton of his personal wealth to buy the election is literally the only thing he has going for him at this point.  I suppose if he spends a lot of it on turnout and turnout is relatively low he can keep his defeat to a not embarrassing level (maybe 6 points at best) but it's looking more and more like a double digit blowout. 

[Non Swing Voter]

He’s being called a RINO now because of the ad. Something tells me his chances of victory have fallen, even if it’s a bit overdramatic.

Fallen from .000001% to .0000000001%? 

[Non Swing Voter]

Good ad from Youngkin. Will it help him much though?
https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1435612212278743041?s=20

empty promises from unlikable rich guy won't help the GOP win VA.

[Non Swing Voter]

The fact that billionaires are wasting money on frivolous races for governor and flying into space is proof that we do need to increase taxes on the ultra rich.

[Non Swing Voter]

Monmouth poll had high rates of approval for vaccine mandates, mask mandates, masking in schools, etc., so.... not great for Youngkin.

It's fair to say that running in Virginia is not great for Youngkin.  He should take his sideshow down to North Carolina.

[Non Swing Voter]

Monmouth poll had high rates of approval for vaccine mandates, mask mandates, masking in schools, etc., so.... not great for Youngkin.

It's fair to say that running in Virginia is not great for Youngkin.  He should take his sideshow down to North Carolina.

To be fair, I’d much rather Youngkin was the GOP gubernatorial candidate in NC than Pat McCrory or Mark Robinson.

Well yeah, the further south you go... I'm sure McCrory would be an upgrade for whoever is running in South Carolina, etc.

[Non Swing Voter]

Will we reach 100 pages? We aren't even at 50 yet..

It's 2 months from the election so yes.  It will probably get 20 pages on election night alone.

[Non Swing Voter]

Youngkin: The most god awful general election campaign I've ever seen.  I'm guessing he gets it to within 8 points by Election Day based on the ridiculous spending he's obviously doing, but JFC what a waste of money. 

The only two people in America who think his campaign has been competent are MT Treasurer (thinks Arlington is located in Fairfax county) and THG (no parenthetical necessary).

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1437768503499575298

lmao

T Mac has run one of the most flawless campaigns I've seen in this state.  It should theoretically be a good year for Republicans but given T Mac's campaign versus the atrocious "campaign" (if you can call it that at this point) of Youngkin, this could be a larger win than expected. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

[Non Swing Voter]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

Not sure how that is possible.  He does have a lot of signs, he had them in the GOP "primary" as well.  But I see more TMac signs.  Are you only driving through exclusive parts of Great Falls or something?

[Non Swing Voter]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

Not sure how that is possible.  He does have a lot of signs, he had them in the GOP "primary" as well.  But I see more TMac signs.  Are you only driving through exclusive parts of Great Falls or something?

Oakton, Fairfax, Tysons, Vienna are where I am the most.

There are Terry signs allover Tysons and Vienna. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

Not sure how that is possible.  He does have a lot of signs, he had them in the GOP "primary" as well.  But I see more TMac signs.  Are you only driving through exclusive parts of Great Falls or something?

Oakton, Fairfax, Tysons, Vienna are where I am the most.

There are Terry signs allover Tysons and Vienna. 

Where??? Literally every single house on some streets in Vienna have youngkin signs.

Well I don't exactly peruse all the streets of Vienna but I've definitely seen Tmac signs.  The Youngkin signs are just bigger, redder, and thus more noticeable.  In terms of Tysons if you drive on the Leesburg pike towards the mall you will see a lot of T Mac signs.  Lots of signs in and around McLean too.  Obviously Reston and other more urbanized spots are going to be all T Mac.  Plus like you said, the high rise buildings are going to have tons of T Mac voters.

Based on todays results in CA it's safe to say that Fairfax is going to vote for Terry by an extremely wide margin, which means Youngkin's pathetic waste of money vanity campaign has no chance.

[Non Swing Voter]

Yard signs as a campaign tactic are intended to increase the perception of social acceptability for supporting the candidate - the idea is that they reinforce the idea that "you are not alone."

The data do show that this does tend to have non-negligible effects on independent/non-ideological voters who live in highly partisan areas, which is why you will often see R signs in D areas, and vice versa. There is some great writing about how Doug Jones' 2017 campaign made great use of this tactic in the Birmingham suburbs and Mobile area.

Data also show that they are far more effective in local races and ballot measure campaigns.

I dunno, I saw a lot of Trump signs in Fairfax county in 2020 and he got walloped worse than any Republican in a long time there.  I suppose you could argue he would have been walloped worse but how would we know.

[Non Swing Voter]

Yes.  NOVA has a lot of hispanic and asian voters similar to Orange County.  The white voters are going to skew a lot more liberal on social issues. It's probably fair to say that Fairfax county votes at least 10 points to the left of whatever the final OC margin is. 

Elder was extremely weak at the top of the ticket there but I'm not sure how much that mattered, Dems were going to vote Dem anyway.  Plus, the GOP has a fairly weak (not as weak as Elder) candidate at the top of the ticket in VA too.

[Non Swing Voter]

Virginians are trained to change the channel or mute it every time Youngkin comes on (once every 5 mins) so the idea of a "joint vaccine PSA" would just be a waste of money like all of Youngkin's other ads.  Why doesn't Youngkin stop wasting so much money on his failed campaign and donate it to vaccine research?

[Non Swing Voter]

Since I wrote this 2 Youngkin ads have come on.  Both featuring Sheriffs.  It should be illegal for them to be partisan actors.  Who would think they would investigate crimes fairly.

[Non Swing Voter]

Youngkin says he is pro-life but opposes the Texas-style abortion law.

So his position is that he'll lose by 10 points but not 30.