Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Non Swing Voter]

LOL, the fact that Youngkin is desperately trying to tie the Democrat to Trump tells you everything you need to know about this race.

[Non Swing Voter]

Really impressive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCKoREtKurY&feature=emb_title

How is this impressive. Interesting attack a Republican to try to paint your Democratic opponent as a Trump supporter??

He's not, he's trying to call McAuliffe a hypocrite for attacking Trump while also taking money from him, or something.

That's the pretense for the ad.  The ad is really about trying to tie McAuliffe to Trump in any way he can before the campaign gets into full swing because Youngkin knows that's what McAuliffe is going to spend the next 3 months doing to him (a much easier argument to make given that Youngkin is actually the Republican in the race who was endorsed by Trump). 

The reality is that Trump is exceedingly unpopular in Virginia and in an off off year election like 2021 the electorate is going to be more educated than normal which means the people who actually vote will probably be more anti-Trump than the electorate that just rejected him.  So each candidate is going to want to distance themselves from Trump as much as possible or tie the other one to Trump as much as they can. 

Youngkin's ad is a desperate attempt at setting the pretext for "well both candidates are sorta the same on Trump."  It's not going to work, but I guess if I was a millionaire willing to waste my fortune on an unwinnable race I'd do that too.

[Non Swing Voter]

As a side note, we are getting bombarded in NOVA with Trumpkin ads.  It's not even August.  It's insane how much this self-absorbed d-bag is spending on this failed effort.  I think he's probably going to make it closer than we initially expected (maybe even within 5 points) due to the sheer amount of resources he's pumping into this.  But it's not going to be enough, I don't think.  The math just doesn't work for the GOP anymore.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1417824426406694914

On paper it looks like Nova is donating to Trumpkin in droves... and reverting back to Bush 2004.

but wait..



The advantage is from this zip code..

which just so happens to be Trumpkins zipcode.

lol.

I do see an absolute TON of Trumpkin signs in the 22066 zip.  It's like they are all over the place in Great Falls toward Loudoun.  They magically disappear when you get to Loudoun of McLean.  That said, 22066 is a fairly swingy zip code.  In a sane world this would clearly be Republican territory but post Trump Dems do really well in areas like this.  This is the kind of zip code Trumpkin really needs to over perform in, not just 50/50, he needs zip code like this to go at least 60/40 for him to improve his margins in places like Fairfax and give him a shot statewide.  I just don't see that happening though.

[Non Swing Voter]

There was some school board meeting in Virginia Beach that had a lot of yokels screaming about masks as if it was child abuse to have kids wear them a few hours a day in school.  It's legitimately scary to me that these people live in the same state.  That said, all these nonsense issues the GOP is trying to stir up will backfire spectacularly.  It's going to turn off the exact demographic Trumpkin needs to improve on to win. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Was at the supermarket in Fairfax county the other day and some Rethuglican was yammering on about repealing school board people or something and harassing people about critical race theory and how it's destroying America (and not the virus that Trump let rage out of control).  The housewife he was pestering clearly wasn't into it and ran to her car.  He dropped his pile of propaganda right behind my car.  Had to wait a couple of minutes to back out.  This is not how you win over voters in a blue county. 

But it's pretty telling that this is the best spin they've got.  That or they actually believe this dribble.  Either way these people are a societal cancer.

[Non Swing Voter]

There was some school board meeting in Virginia Beach that had a lot of yokels screaming about masks as if it was child abuse to have kids wear them a few hours a day in school.  It's legitimately scary to me that these people live in the same state.  That said, all these nonsense issues the GOP is trying to stir up will backfire spectacularly.  It's going to turn off the exact demographic Trumpkin needs to improve on to win. 

Not to mention, we've now seen GOP operatives purposely going to school board meetings to stir these things up, so it's not even organic.

Right, this is all these people seem to do.  Don't they have jobs?  They're always yammering on about socialism but can never be caught working.

[Non Swing Voter]

Not great for Trumpkin

https://twitter.com/maxasteele/status/1422283093977747457

I've been saying this for a while now... this guy is exceptionally overrated.  Having tons of money can't buy him a personality or political savvy. 

[Non Swing Voter]

My analysis on the Virginia Gubernatorial election.  I still think in the end McAuliffe will most likely prevail, but if I were him, I'd be very worried looking at the polling.  McAuliffe is the de facto incumbent.  I would expect him to be running away with it.  He isn't.  The polls show it close. McAuliffe is not the invincible pol people think.  Remember, he only narrowly edged out a very polarizing opponent in 2013, and Youngkin as not as controversial as Cucinelli.  And McAuliffe left office with mediocre approval ratings.  Above water, but below 50%.  And I believe there is the sense among some moderate voters in the suburbs that Northam and the Democrats in the General Assembly have overreached the last 2 years.  Since willing the majority, the Democrats have done things like abolishing the death penalty and legalized marijuana.  They are acting like Virginia is Massachusetts.

Nobody thinks McAuliffe is invincible.  It's just . . . math.  Virginia isn't the same as it was in 2013.  Southwest Virginia has shrunk, NOVA has grown (considerably) and the suburbs have gotten a lot bluer everywhere. 

And sure maybe Youngkin isn't as polarizing as Cucinelli (hard feat for sure), but lets get serious here, he sucks.  He's a pitiful political candidate.  I don't know who advised him to run but I'm sure they had some kind of financial interest in it given how much ad spending he's doing.

[Non Swing Voter]

The analysis of Virginia politics here is always confused about one major thing.  It doesn't matter who the Republicans nominate statewide.  It matters who the DEMOCRATS nominate for there to be a change of the race being competitive.

As long as Democrats nominate a reasonable moderate: Warner, Kaine, Northam, McAuliffe, etc., they win.  It doesn't matter if Republicans nominate someone who looks like a moderate or even is a moderate.  As long as the Democratic candidate is good that is sufficient.  If Democrats nominate a weak candidate (e.g., a Bernie Sanders type who tanks their margins in the suburbs) then it CAN be competitive if the Republican candidate is also good. 

The Republican candidate being good is necessary but not sufficient to win.

[Non Swing Voter]

I am terrified that  that after the election that Trumpkin supporters will come and invade Nova, Richmond, Charlottesville and Norfolk...

what on earth are you talking about?

Yeah, I mean, Trump supporters would never invade Charlottesville!

[Non Swing Voter]

The pundit class appears to be living in a completely different Virginia reality than everyone else.

It appears the only articles they can write about Virginia are literally "Critical race theory in the suburbs~~!!!!"

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1423310410954981380

This is actually what's going on on the ground honestly.  They have these dirtbag activists showing up at grocery store parking lots every weekend talking about CRT and school issues.  It's obviously some national campaign cloaked in "local issues."  They know they can't win if they nationalize the race so they are pretending there is some massive issue local to Virginia.  They can't talk about taxes because Dems haven't raised them (since Dems represent the part of the state that actually pays their fair share of taxes), so this is the best they've got. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Could the afganistan fiasco hurt mcaulife in NOVA?

NOVA is AN EXTREMELY pro-interventionist area of the country.

You have literally no idea what you are talking about.  But at least in this case ur just spreading misinformation about the political leanings of 3 or 4 million people rather than the effectiveness of masking up during a pandemic.

[Non Swing Voter]

Could the afganistan fiasco hurt mcaulife in NOVA?

NOVA is AN EXTREMELY pro-interventionist area of the country.

No it really is not. Sorry to burst your bubble. And that type of policy is not exactly a fully partisan issue.

you are seriously arguing that an area of america where a huge chunk of people work for fbi, cia, dod, and numerous defense contractors isn't pro-interventionist? lol

there is a reason the GOP dominated the region from reagan to bush

Oh boy. another person who believes that Nova flips back to the GOP just because Trump is out of office and thinks the electorate here is the same as 2000.

Not worth pages long of arguments.

But Afghanistan will have little if any impact on this election.

He also seems to actually believe that the FBI and CIA employees are a "huge chunk" of the electorate, as if they dominate a metro area of 6 million people. 

[Non Swing Voter]

I have no idea how Northam's K-12 Mask Mandate will impact the election. Will energize the GOP base but I have my doubts the Biden voters in Virginia would respond that badly to requiring masks for a population largely ineligible for vaccination.

The majority of people agree with the school mask mandates. I think that's what a lot of people are missing, despite the few kooks that are coming to school board meetings.

Wtf no they don't?? Both young people and parents are sick of the mask BS. THere is no need for them anyway because of the vaccine.

The majority of people who show up to board meeting super spreader events are against them but the rest of society is happy they are in place.  Also, a lot of these wackjobs showing up at board meetings are apparently not even parents, just professional agitators.

[Non Swing Voter]

Even I do not think it is unreasonable to require masks in schools and I have spent the last year and a half literally DEMANDING that schools and businesses are opened.. Most school aged children can not be vaccinated yet.

Shutdowns were probably a mistake in retrospect because the CDC didn't know what it was dealing with.  This whole thing would have gone more smoothly if we never shut down but required masks in public from day 1. 

That said, it is really not too much to ask the Trump BABIES to wear a mask if they refuse to get a vaccine.  But the Trump BABIES have turned this into an affront on their civil liberties.  As if requiring people wear things is somehow a violation of their rights.  Even though pretty much every public space requires people wear reasonable clothing and not just go outside naked.

[Non Swing Voter]

Just saw a new Youngkin ad, he absolutely demolished McAuliffe on the premature Afghanistan withdrawal.  Race is over.  Pro-interventionist NOVA is going to deliver for its hometown hero Glenn Youngkin and Matty will be hailed as an amazing political prognosticator for years to come.

But anyways, on Earth 1, the amount of spending Youngkin must be doing is insane.  He's on every channel on prime time on DC stations, meaning it's probably being blasted to NOVA/DC/and parts of Maryland.  He actually seems to be trying to cut into the NOVA margins.  Which, to be fair, is the right strategy.   He can't win unless he gets the Dem margin down 10 points in Fairfax.  Downstate vote isn't going to cut it.  He's been very cautious to look like a Trumpy politician but not say one word that offends liberals.  But at the end of the day he's unlikable and bland and this is a waste of time and money.

[Non Swing Voter]

Just saw a new Youngkin ad, he absolutely demolished McAuliffe on the premature Afghanistan withdrawal.  Race is over.  Pro-interventionist NOVA is going to deliver for its hometown hero Glenn Youngkin and Matty will be hailed as an amazing political prognosticator for years to come.

But anyways, on Earth 1, the amount of spending Youngkin must be doing is insane.  He's on every channel on prime time on DC stations, meaning it's probably being blasted to NOVA/DC/and parts of Maryland.  He actually seems to be trying to cut into the NOVA margins.  Which, to be fair, is the right strategy.   He can't win unless he gets the Dem margin down 10 points in Fairfax.  Downstate vote isn't going to cut it.  He's been very cautious to look like a Trumpy politician but not say one word that offends liberals.  But at the end of the day he's unlikable and bland and this is a waste of time and money.

is McAuliffe gonna start airing ads or?

He does air ads as well just not nearly as many.  I've seen a more balanced number of ads on YouTube and online.  McAuliffe was actually showing up more until recently but now even online I'm seeing more Youngkin ads than McAuliffe.  Predictably, most of his ads are trying to tie Youngkin to Trump + highlighting how Youngkin refuses to debate him.  The Youngkin ads are all about how he's a victim of negative attack ads because McAuliffe wont focus on the real issues (not that Youngkin is mentioning any himself).

[Non Swing Voter]

Just saw a new Youngkin ad, he absolutely demolished McAuliffe on the premature Afghanistan withdrawal.  Race is over.  Pro-interventionist NOVA is going to deliver for its hometown hero Glenn Youngkin and Matty will be hailed as an amazing political prognosticator for years to come.

But anyways, on Earth 1, the amount of spending Youngkin must be doing is insane.  He's on every channel on prime time on DC stations, meaning it's probably being blasted to NOVA/DC/and parts of Maryland.  He actually seems to be trying to cut into the NOVA margins.  Which, to be fair, is the right strategy.   He can't win unless he gets the Dem margin down 10 points in Fairfax.  Downstate vote isn't going to cut it.  He's been very cautious to look like a Trumpy politician but not say one word that offends liberals.  But at the end of the day he's unlikable and bland and this is a waste of time and money.

I saw a lot more Youngkin ads than TMac during the Olympics on the DC NBC channels. He had quite a few, but I got the impression from all of them that his words and backdrops were carefully selected to speak to two audiences. Obviously he wants this image of a normal suburban businessman, but if you are engulfed in Conservative media then you will pick up on the various subtexts that a Democratic voter might not. He had a family one that had hints of his evangelical faith and a industry one with the subtext of a full reopening for example.

No downballot ads.

I absolutely picked up on this too.  You kind of see a lot of red subtly placed in his ads (MAGA), lots of pseudo religious stuff in the background, white kids everywhere.  It's not explicitly evangelical but  it's obvious who he is targeting.  Then he has the token minority here or there.  Being a total phony like him never works though.  It didn't work for Gillespie and it won't work for this guy. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Just saw a new Youngkin ad, he absolutely demolished McAuliffe on the premature Afghanistan withdrawal.  Race is over.  Pro-interventionist NOVA is going to deliver for its hometown hero Glenn Youngkin and Matty will be hailed as an amazing political prognosticator for years to come.

But anyways, on Earth 1, the amount of spending Youngkin must be doing is insane.  He's on every channel on prime time on DC stations, meaning it's probably being blasted to NOVA/DC/and parts of Maryland.  He actually seems to be trying to cut into the NOVA margins.  Which, to be fair, is the right strategy.   He can't win unless he gets the Dem margin down 10 points in Fairfax.  Downstate vote isn't going to cut it.  He's been very cautious to look like a Trumpy politician but not say one word that offends liberals.  But at the end of the day he's unlikable and bland and this is a waste of time and money.

is McAuliffe gonna start airing ads or?

He does air ads as well just not nearly as many.  I've seen a more balanced number of ads on YouTube and online.  McAuliffe was actually showing up more until recently but now even online I'm seeing more Youngkin ads than McAuliffe.  Predictably, most of his ads are trying to tie Youngkin to Trump + highlighting how Youngkin refuses to debate him.  The Youngkin ads are all about how he's a victim of negative attack ads because McAuliffe wont focus on the real issues (not that Youngkin is mentioning any himself).

I feel like we're at a stage in modern elections where every TV set is just saturated with ads, so much so that there's nowhere for additional money to go.

Conversely, there are tons of people like me who don't watch traditional TV, who get no ads. All my YouTube ads are for health care or joining the Air Force, even though I vote religiously.

Yes, though I wonder if he could be using this money for direct voter outreach and turnout.  It would be scary if he's also doing that at the same magnitude.  He's literally trying to buy this seat Bloomberg style.

[Non Swing Voter]

I honestly think Youngkin woke up bored one day and decided to run for Governor.  He should have just used the money to fly into space for 15 minutes instead.  Far more return on the investment.  He clearly doesn't know why he's running and his cringe dog dad ads aren't articulating it to voters either.

[Non Swing Voter]

The horse-race narrative has begun:

Polls show close race for Virginia governor, with lots of voters up for grabs

These narratives are ridiculous and belied by their own reporting...

"Half of the voters in a Roanoke College poll have no opinion of Youngkin."

It's a horse-race but half the people have no clue about one of the candidates!

[Non Swing Voter]

Predictably (and even uploaded on the same day):

https://youtu.be/Fh_5lK_uP5M

https://youtu.be/YZgstTIarEM

These culture-war issues (not far-fetched to count COVID among them at this point) will hold more sway / impact base turnout more than Biden's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.

It's unlikely to happen.. but if the gop sweeps all three statewide races and flips the house of delegates do you think the GOP would contest the state in 2024?

Right now I expect the two downballot offices to be generic d vs r so they may run a bit ahead of tmac. But that could change.

You're asking someone who thinks Arlington is in Fairfax county.  Are you that desperate for a horserace?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://virginia.gop/virginia-gop-files-lawsuit-seeking-mcauliffe-disqualification/

Virginia GOP is suing to exclude Terry McAuliffe from the ballot for governor because he allegedly didn't sign his statement of candidacy.

This is almost certainly going to be dismissed.

That's what confident parties with a strong candidate at the top of the ticket do.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://virginia.gop/virginia-gop-files-lawsuit-seeking-mcauliffe-disqualification/

Virginia GOP is suing to exclude Terry McAuliffe from the ballot for governor because he allegedly didn't sign his statement of candidacy.

This is almost certainly going to be dismissed.

That's what confident parties with a strong candidate at the top of the ticket do.

Is this a serious risk for McAuliffe?  How does this compare to the Nick Freitas 2019 case where he ended up having to run as a write-in?

Freitas did not submit his paperwork at all. TMac forgot a line on the form. This isn't that uncommon of an occurrence, there were 3 cases I recall from recent legislative elections where candidates improperly filled out a form. Freitas was the only recent candidate who lost his case because his position was comparatively unique, extreme, and there was nothing there to argue for wiggle room.

OK, that's a pretty dramatic difference then.  Apparently the state board also voted to allow a whole bunch of people to file late after the deadline last year, so I'm assuming this isn't going anywhere. 

Nope it doesn't and it tells me that the GOP has been polling the hell out of Virginia and not making any headway.  For all this talk about Biden's approvals and this and that, the reality is that certain demographics are going to vote a certain way as long as they turn out and that's not good news for Youngkin in a state like Virginia.