Biden in Virginia

[Non Swing Voter]

He probably does.  Turnout wasn't particularly low downstate and it was still a blowout in 2017.  NoVa is going to turn out in unheard of numbers, trust me.  Just look at the primary and the kinds of insane numbers Biden racked up.  You see Biden signs everywhere even in the really wealthy parts of McLean, Vienna and Great Falls, which are really the only heavily populated parts of NoVa that Republicans can win or at least break even in.  Rural areas won't offset that.  Most likely Biden +10/11, with the possibility of getting up to Biden 15.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/poll-biden-has-14-point-lead-over-trump-in-virginia-support-for-mail-in-voting/article_74cab7e0-f929-11ea-81a2-67cf5fb3e44d.html

New poll has Biden up 14 and he is winning all three major population centers.  If this is true then it suggests that Trump is probably going to have a lot of trouble in Pennsylvania and Michigan.  The clear lead in NoVa and perhaps Richmond was expected but not necessarily tidewater.  The thought was that Northam won there because of his ties to the area but it seems like even small metro suburbs are shifting. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Is it true that Virginia is the new Maryland?

Why?

Is Virginia more conservative than Maryland, or the other way around?

Virginia is very similar to Maryland except Maryland has more favorable demographics. 

Roughly 1/3 of Virginia's population lives in the DC suburbs, right outside of Washington.  A similar proportion, though probably a bit higher, lives in Maryland right outside Washington.  The suburbs are like a mirror image of each other.  In Maryland there is a very large upscale and educated county called Montgomery, in Virginia it's Fairfax.  There are also Prince Georges in Maryland and Prince William in Virginia, which are more diverse and also Democratic.  There are more exurban counties such as Anne Arundel in Maryland and Loudoun in Virginia.  These are all highly Democratic counties and growing in population (particularly in VA).

Virginia also has the city of Richmond and its suburbs which is heavily African American and college educated white.  Maryland has Baltimore and its suburbs.  Both of these cities/suburbs are heavily Dem. 

Both states also have a lot of rural, poor, largely white counties.  In Virginia they make up a larger proportion of the overall population. 

So Maryland and Virginia are now very similar states.  Maryland just has a higher proportion of black voters and a smaller rural population.  Therefore it's probably going to vote 10 points to the left of Virginia this time, though Virginia is trending Democratic faster than Maryland is.