2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

[Non Swing Voter]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

What was the turn out % of democrats in 2016?

Good question.  I think someone posted something that showed a little under 80% at one point but I don't remember exactly.

[Non Swing Voter]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

What was the turn out % of democrats in 2016?

Good question.  I think someone posted something that showed a little under 80% at one point but I don't remember exactly.

Yes, this was 53.9% after early vote and 74.4% Total
Repubs were 55.7% after early vote and  81.2% Total, thus the Hillary loss

Wow, 74.4% was even lower than I thought.  I mean that tells you everything right there...  Democrats just need to keep up with Republicans not outperform them, though they might this year.

People freaking out about Republican turnout should look at the above and keep in mind that Dems are closing in on 40%.

[Non Swing Voter]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

What was the turn out % of democrats in 2016?

Good question.  I think someone posted something that showed a little under 80% at one point but I don't remember exactly.

Yes, this was 53.9% after early vote and 74.4% Total
Repubs were 55.7% after early vote and  81.2% Total, thus the Hillary loss

Wow, 74.4% was even lower than I thought.  I mean that tells you everything right there...  Democrats just need to keep up with Republicans not outperform them, though they might this year.

People freaking out about Republican turnout should look at the above and keep in mind that Dems are closing in on 40%.

Another thing you have to factor in is the late-deciders and independents who broke for Trump in 2016. Everything suggests now that independents are likely with Biden. That could be the deciding factor in a state like Florida.

Yeah and about 1 million of them have already voted.  Trump has very little opportunity to win back voters.  Just so few undecideds left.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1319436214039158786

I feel like it's not that bad.  GOP netted like 38k today?  And that doesn't include Miami Dade?  So lets say it's in the lower 30's.  At this rate they still need big turnout on Election Day. 

Plus souls to the polls Sunday could help Dems?

[Non Swing Voter]

Let’s hope that the weekend bump culminates, but the GOP is currently over performing in Florida. Let’s not ignore that.

I for one, am saddened and unsurprised by the re-election of idiocrat, Donald J Trump.
I won’t comment on here anymore since it’s clear the Atlas bubble effect is really strong and nothing will change your mind.
I guess watching the complete shock of everyone here when the f**ker gets re-elected will be a bit of entertainment in the otherwise horrible night that is coming.

Stop, just stop.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://6abc.com/voter-rejection-rate-making-sure-ballot-counts-pennsylvania-voters-voting-in/7247769/

this scares me a bit.

[Non Swing Voter]

There is a ward in Madison that is almost at 120% of 2016 turnout.

https://twitter.com/jjoyce/status/1319427425311272961?s=20

Is Madison just growing in population in parts, like some big apartment building added to that ward or something?  That seems like a ridiculously big jump in turnout given that there are still 12 days left.

[Non Swing Voter]

There is a ward in Madison that is almost at 120% of 2016 turnout.

https://twitter.com/jjoyce/status/1319427425311272961?s=20

Is Madison just growing in population in parts, like some big apartment building added to that ward or something?  That seems like a ridiculously big jump in turnout given that there are still 12 days left.

This city's population growth is off the charts. I've been here for close to a decade, and I've seen it boom.

So that ward 107, looks like it's in District 1?  Do you know anything about the demographics there?  Like does it tell us that African Americans or College Students, etc. are engaged?

[Non Swing Voter]

There is a ward in Madison that is almost at 120% of 2016 turnout.

https://twitter.com/jjoyce/status/1319427425311272961?s=20

Is Madison just growing in population in parts, like some big apartment building added to that ward or something?  That seems like a ridiculously big jump in turnout given that there are still 12 days left.

This city's population growth is off the charts. I've been here for close to a decade, and I've seen it boom.

So that ward 107, looks like it's in District 1?  Do you know anything about the demographics there?  Like does it tell us that African Americans or College Students, etc. are engaged?

Definitely not many college students in that ward. It's a mix of African Americans, Latino, and WWC folks. The further south, the more AA and Latino wards you'll find.

Hmm, so maybe promising for minority turnout versus 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

With some of the delays in reporting will the vote count be at 60M by Monday morning?

Definitely.

Tomorrow will also be a big day too.  Lots of states are in peak voting mode and Minnesota gives its update for the week on Friday.  Wouldn't be surprised if we are well over 55 million tomorrow.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

nearly 50 million!

[Non Swing Voter]

FLORIDA


4,705,612 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,085,559 (44.3%)
Republican: 1,659,686 (35.3%)
NPA/Other: 960,367 (20.2%)

Dem lead decreases to 425,873

~537,167 ballots were processed today

I mean, yeah it's decreasing but not by that much each day.  Wasn't the highest Democratic lead like 470k? 

[Non Swing Voter]

We need to stop obsessing over some arbitrary Dem-Rep difference number for Florida.  All about Turnout.  Only 74.5% of Dems showed up in 2016 vs 81.2% of Repubs....that was the ballgame.

Here is where we are after this morning's update from the Florida SOS.

This chart provides Turnout to date by Party, where they were at the end of all EV in 2016 and what the Final Turnout numbers were.   Dems are way ahead of where they were last time with 10 days of EV left.

We need a tracker like this updated daily if possible!  Wonderful and useful image!

[Non Swing Voter]

Global comment: have the board bed wetters considered that the top secret GOP get out the vote machine might be bulls*** like everything else the Republicans say?  We are deep into early voting and yes more Republicans are turning out because a large chunk of Democratic voters have already voted.  But the GOP turnout isn't amazing by any stretch, Democrats are keeping pace in a lot of areas.  If they had such a robust turnout operation there is no reason they wouldn't be turning their people out right now.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942

41% of registered Democrats in Florida have now already voted.  With 11 DAYS STILL LEFT TO VOTE.  What part of this is bad for a state where high turnout tends to favor democrats?

[Non Swing Voter]

We need to stop obsessing over some arbitrary Dem-Rep difference number for Florida.  All about Turnout.  Only 74.5% of Dems showed up in 2016 vs 81.2% of Repubs....that was the ballgame.

Here is where we are after this morning's update from the Florida SOS.

This chart provides Turnout to date by Party, where they were at the end of all EV in 2016 and what the Final Turnout numbers were.   Dems are way ahead of where they were last time with 10 days of EV left.

We need a tracker like this updated daily if possible!  Wonderful and useful image!

Will do, after each morning when the Florida DOE updates (before 9am)
I will also give updates on how the key big counties are doing.

You are awesome, we really appreciate it.

[Non Swing Voter]

As of 3 pm, 19k have voted in Travis, leaving it about 11k shy of hitting my personal 400k total goal by the end of the day. Four more hours!

Weather caused some sites in Harris to close temporarily, but they should still be on track to hit a million by end of day.

Dems are doing what they need to in their base areas.

Are your goals benchmarks for a Biden win or something else?

[Non Swing Voter]

Any TX people that can tell us what the early voting trends can tell us about congressional races?  I'm assuming boosted turnout in the cities and suburbs is not helpful for certain republicans.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363

nice summary of early voting. 

Here's a blurb about Michigan:

"John Sellek (R), Harbor Strategic in Michigan: “Polling here shows Biden leading amongst those who voted early so far, yet we are consistently seeing Republican voters expressing slightly higher excitement about voting than Democrats. We are also seeing Republicans conducting voter registration in blue-collar areas that's never been possible before. ... However, if turnout is over 5 million, which would break Michigan's 2008 record, it becomes very difficult to find enough Republicans to keep up at the statewide level.”

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1319712820892762113

[Non Swing Voter]

The only number that really matters right now.

Dem turnout in Florida so far: 42% of registered voters.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942

[Non Swing Voter]

The only number that really matters right now.

Dem turnout in Florida so far: 42% of registered voters.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942

Hillary had a 250k lead going in to E-Day.

Also, given the NPAs are going for Biden most likely, Dems just need to keep pace with GOP at the end  of it. People are being ridiculous freaking out because the lead goes from like 420 to 390, when any edge that the Dems have is good.

  The 96k lead that Democrats had by Party ID (combo of mail-in, early voting) was actually a real vote lead of around 250,000 in 2016. We have no idea how much Joe Biden is up by.

Yeah, whatever the party ID lead is between D and R, Biden's lead is probably going to be larger than it.  

At this point I think the biggest predictor here is what percent of Democrats vote.  Like everyone's been saying if Dems can keep parity with Republicans then they have the advantage.  They have a nice buffer now.  I'd like to see the percent turnout go up 3 or 4% every day for Dems.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1319640449053822977

So at most it's probably 3 points off meaning he's up about 5.  However, this has really been one of the most stable elections ever so if anything it's probably off by less (unless there's a systematic polling error based on some weird hidden reason).