2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1309246909144539136

Guess the Republicans there don't want any part of Trump's steal the electors plan...

[Non Swing Voter]

Falls Church, VA up to 14.4% turnout.

[Non Swing Voter]

Falls Church, VA up to 14.4% turnout.

If they keep up this pace, turnout will be 140-150% by election day.

Trump election fraud claims will be validated.

[Non Swing Voter]

Falls Church, VA up to 14.4% turnout.

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1309262359240871937

The number of votes cast is already 19.4% of the total number cast in 2016

I'm really interested to see where we are in a week.  It would be amazing if it gets to 50% of 2016 turnout by October.

[Non Swing Voter]

Georgia early vote updated: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA.html

a little over 44,000, 58% white

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1309246909144539136

Guess the Republicans there don't want any part of Trump's steal the electors plan...

But Pennsylvania Republicans do... they're refusing to pass any legislation to let the ballot counting start earlier.

Yeah.  PA Republicans are absolute garbage.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/CohoKelly/status/1309490943888945152

[Non Swing Voter]

I voted a straight Democratic ticket (including Warnock for the special) yesterday.

What's it going to take for that rat Lieberman to drop out?

Being a Sore Loserman is obviously a genetic affliction.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1309597388072517634

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1309597388072517634

I'm guessing <200 of those votes are for Trump, maybe <100.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

We need more reports like these in other Biden-favorable areas in other states like GA, OH, WI, MI, etc.

I am trying to make sense of the turnout in WI.  Dane numbers look similar to what I'm posting, but Milwaukee numbers look bad.  But maybe they are just slower at reporting/sending out ballots?

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

When we talk about turnout as a %, are we talking about turnout relative to the last election, turnout of relative voters, or turnout of all people eligible to vote (basically all citizens over 18)?

turnout of ALL registered voters in the city.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

We need more reports like these in other Biden-favorable areas in other states like GA, OH, WI, MI, etc.

I am trying to make sense of the turnout in WI.  Dane numbers look similar to what I'm posting, but Milwaukee numbers look bad.  But maybe they are just slower at reporting/sending out ballots?

Milwaukee always looks bad early. The county moves slower in general and catches up much later.

oh ok.  I really hope Dems are targeting that for turnout...  and soon...

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

When we talk about turnout as a %, are we talking about turnout relative to the last election, turnout of relative voters, or turnout of all people eligible to vote (basically all citizens over 18)?

I believe it's the % of registered voters.

I see.  About 75% of Americans are registered to vote, so when we talk about the typical 60% of eligible voters who vote in presidential elections, that's really 80% of registered voters.  So 80% is the target number, and Democrats would like to see above 80% in favorable areas.

We are definitely going to get there in Falls Church no doubt.  I expected a huge flow of voters the first few days.  However, I expected the numbers to drop substantially after say 2 days of this.  There are no signs of it stopping.  I myself am obviously highly motivated but I haven't voted yet in Fairfax because I don't have any interest in standing in enormous lines.  I'm guessing that's the calculus going on for many so I could see the steady flow continuing.

[Non Swing Voter]

Apparently South Dakota and Wisconsin have the highest turnout so far relative to total turnout in 2016.

South Dakota = 9.5%

Wisconsin - 5.7%

[Non Swing Voter]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

[Non Swing Voter]

The people that are voting now and so early are the ones who are most determined and who made their choice already 4 years ago when Trump got elected.

This doesn’t mean anything about the larger bulk of voters later on, for turnout or if Trump wins or not ...

How many times are you going to say the same thing here?

[Non Swing Voter]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

This is a good site for early/mail vote in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

It seems the more Democratic areas of the state have higher early voter turnout than the Republocan areas, which is expected.

Thank you!! super helpful - i see they are showing the district breakdown by district - they aren't showing the party breakdown anywhere?

Yeah as others have said, no registration by party, but the heavy turnout appears to be in urban/suburban areas that are not friendly to the GOP.  Anecdotally if looks like suburban white females are disproportionately turning out.  Maybe the RBG thing is motivating them?  These people would likely vote anyways, not really low propensity voters, but when you have like 20% voter turnout already in some of the most heavily democratic precincts it shows Democrats are clearly motivated.  So I don't buy the enthusiasm gap for Trump voters thing that the news keeps saying.  There's enthusiasm on both sides and Biden's coalition is bigger.  That's why I think these numbers are important.

[Non Swing Voter]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

This is a good site for early/mail vote in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

It seems the more Democratic areas of the state have higher early voter turnout than the Republocan areas, which is expected.

This visual is good too:

https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/mail-applications-congressional-district-2020-vs-2016/

It shows relative numbers for each district and 2016.  The three Northern Virginia numbers are up the most. 

CD8 = most urban district, more like DC, very liberal (most requests)
CD10 = most suburban district, more swingy but moderate to liberal, upscale, this is the district that Comstock used to represent (second most requests)
CD11 = diverse, slightly more working class (third most requests but relatively speaking up more than CD10)

Seems like the relative gains are for urban voters and minorities.  Suburban voters showing huge turnout too but started at a high number already.

[Non Swing Voter]

For Virginia, part of the shift is just the sheer changes in population.  Loudoun county has added 43,000 voters since 2016 from 232,000 to 275,000.  Meanwhile, take three coal counties from SW Virginia, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Lee they've gone from a combined 42,000 voters in 2016 to 40,000 in the latest numbers.  So, Loudoun has literally added the voting equivalent of those three counties in just 4 years.  An extreme example, but very illustrative of Va.

Yes, Northern Virginia (depending how you define it) used to be like 30% of the statewide total, it's more like 35% nowadays.  Democrats winning NOVA + Richmond area is probably enough to win statewide now even if they lose the Virginia Beach area + rural Virginia.

[Non Swing Voter]

The only part of Trump I like is that he has not been a war monger and has even disparaged the troops! That is a HUGE plus in my book.

His "not a war monger" involves letting Russia and Turkey do whatever they want in the Middle East, abandoning our key allies in the war against ISIS, and abandoning Syria to genocide and ruin.  Think the Kurds will want to help us next time there's an ISIS in the area and we need their help?  Nope.  That's what happens when you have no principles and betray your allies.

Meanwhile he assassinated Soleimani for no strategic reason, which caused military retaliation and escalation from Iran and brought us closer to war with that country than at any point in our history.

That's all true, but compared to the war criminal GWB administration he's been ok for a Republican.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wisconsin added another 25,295 votes over the weekend. This brings it to 20.44% of all absentee requests returned which is 7.56% of all current registered voters and 8.01% of all 2016 voters. Of that 48% of the new votes came from Dane County, which shows how much of a success Democracy in the Parks was in Madison. Dane County is now at 29.64% of absentee ballots returned, which is 14.25% of registered voters and 17.10% of 2016 voters. They lead the state in the last two and are now only about 3% behind Douglas County on % of absentee returns.

Milwaukee continues to pick up the pace a little bit as they added 7,031 votes and are now up to 27,037 returned votes. I saw a tweet on Twitter on Saturday of folks just getting their absentee ballots, so that's partially why they have only returned 13.35% of absentee requests. In terms of the % of 2016 votes returned they are 36th in the state, which is exactly in the middle for all Wisconsin counties. Hopefully we see a big improvement this week.  

Other counties that have now passed 10% of 2016 voters include Brown (10.49%), Douglas (11.53%), La Crosse (10.14%), Rock (10.13%), and Sauk (10.15%). Ashland, Door, Ozaukee, Portage, and Winnebago will probably all enter this range as soon as tomorrow. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like to know!

What are you looking most closely at going forward?  The percentage out of Milwaukee?  Seems like Dane county is going to definitely have high turnout so what Biden really needs is similarly high turnout out of Milwaukee. 

[Non Swing Voter]

The highest turnout in NOVA appears to be from the cities:

https://wtop.com/virginia/2020/09/northern-virginia-voters-pack-recently-opened-early-voting-sites/

"When it comes to the percentage of ballots cast, as of Friday, the City of Falls Church leads the pack with more than 17% of its more than 10,000 registered voters showing up to vote early.

The City of Fairfax is next with more than 12% turnout so far in a city of just over 17,000 registered voters.

More than 5,400 voters have voted in Alexandria, which is more than 5% of its more than 101,000 registered voters."

[Non Swing Voter]

The highest turnout in NOVA appears to be from the cities:

https://wtop.com/virginia/2020/09/northern-virginia-voters-pack-recently-opened-early-voting-sites/

"When it comes to the percentage of ballots cast, as of Friday, the City of Falls Church leads the pack with more than 17% of its more than 10,000 registered voters showing up to vote early.

The City of Fairfax is next with more than 12% turnout so far in a city of just over 17,000 registered voters.

More than 5,400 voters have voted in Alexandria, which is more than 5% of its more than 101,000 registered voters."

To be honest, it is not physically possible for just one location in Fairfax county to be facilitate 10% turnout. It's much easier in smaller jurisdiction where daily capacity is much higher relative to the bigger ones.

Yes, this is the problem.  I live in Fairfax county and don't have the time or patience to stand in that 3 hour line.  Also, Fairfax County is enormous and densely populated with lots of traffic so some parts of it are probably really far from that location in terms of travel time. 

Luckily Fairfax is opening more satellite offices in October, then I expect turnout to start really swelling.