2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

[Tender Branson]

The people that are voting now and so early are the ones who are most determined and who made their choice already 4 years ago when Trump got elected.

This doesn’t mean anything about the larger bulk of voters later on, for turnout or if Trump wins or not ...

[Non Swing Voter]

The people that are voting now and so early are the ones who are most determined and who made their choice already 4 years ago when Trump got elected.

This doesn’t mean anything about the larger bulk of voters later on, for turnout or if Trump wins or not ...

How many times are you going to say the same thing here?

[Tender Branson]

The people that are voting now and so early are the ones who are most determined and who made their choice already 4 years ago when Trump got elected.

This doesn’t mean anything about the larger bulk of voters later on, for turnout or if Trump wins or not ...

How many times are you going to say the same thing here?

Those are service posts, so people (also first-time voters and new to the process of elections) get the context.

[Gass3268]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

We need more reports like these in other Biden-favorable areas in other states like GA, OH, WI, MI, etc.

I am trying to make sense of the turnout in WI.  Dane numbers look similar to what I'm posting, but Milwaukee numbers look bad.  But maybe they are just slower at reporting/sending out ballots?

Some people in Milwaukee are just getting their ballots.

https://twitter.com/DanRShafer/status/1309888792871014401?s=20

[DINGO Joe]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

NC is mail only right now, when it goes to in-person plus mail, you'll get a better feel for enthusiasm

[republican1993]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

[Holmes]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

This is a good site for early/mail vote in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

It seems the more Democratic areas of the state have higher early voter turnout than the Republocan areas, which is expected.

[republican1993]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

This is a good site for early/mail vote in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

It seems the more Democratic areas of the state have higher early voter turnout than the Republocan areas, which is expected.

Thank you!! super helpful - i see they are showing the district breakdown by district - they aren't showing the party breakdown anywhere?

[kph14]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

This is a good site for early/mail vote in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

It seems the more Democratic areas of the state have higher early voter turnout than the Republocan areas, which is expected.

Thank you!! super helpful - i see they are showing the district breakdown by district - they aren't showing the party breakdown anywhere?

They can't. Virginia has no registration by party

[republican1993]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

This is a good site for early/mail vote in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

It seems the more Democratic areas of the state have higher early voter turnout than the Republocan areas, which is expected.

Thank you!! super helpful - i see they are showing the district breakdown by district - they aren't showing the party breakdown anywhere?

They can't. Virginia has no registration by party

ah good to know! btw germany is #1 love deutschland

[JerryArkansas]

The people that are voting now and so early are the ones who are most determined and who made their choice already 4 years ago when Trump got elected.

This doesn’t mean anything about the larger bulk of voters later on, for turnout or if Trump wins or not ...

How many times are you going to say the same thing here?

Those are service posts, so people (also first-time voters and new to the process of elections) get the context.

At this point they are becoming spam.

[Gass3268]

43,319 more ballots returned in Wisconsin, bringing the total returned ballots to 213,061. Douglas still leads the way with % of applied returned 32.43% and Dane County leads in both raw returns at 40,721 ballots and % of 2016 vote at 13.16%. Another 4,972 were returned in Milwaukee County as folks continue to receive their ballots.

[wbrocks67]

Philadelphia says they are sending ballots out starting this weekend, so people should start receiving them in the next week. Also, early in person voting starts in Philly + the suburban counties next week (or rather this upcoming week) as well.

[Adam Griffin]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

This is a good site for early/mail vote in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

It seems the more Democratic areas of the state have higher early voter turnout than the Republocan areas, which is expected.

Thank you!! super helpful - i see they are showing the district breakdown by district - they aren't showing the party breakdown anywhere?

This is TargetSmart data and I have cautioned about their failures in the past, but here are the modeled numbers among non-2016 early voters (mail and in-person):



And this (in-person only):

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1307719587807535104

[kph14]

People should keep in mind that 2016 non-voter just means that the person in question did not vote in that particular state. There is almost no way of knowing whether that person voted in a different state

[Non Swing Voter]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

This is a good site for early/mail vote in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

It seems the more Democratic areas of the state have higher early voter turnout than the Republocan areas, which is expected.

Thank you!! super helpful - i see they are showing the district breakdown by district - they aren't showing the party breakdown anywhere?

Yeah as others have said, no registration by party, but the heavy turnout appears to be in urban/suburban areas that are not friendly to the GOP.  Anecdotally if looks like suburban white females are disproportionately turning out.  Maybe the RBG thing is motivating them?  These people would likely vote anyways, not really low propensity voters, but when you have like 20% voter turnout already in some of the most heavily democratic precincts it shows Democrats are clearly motivated.  So I don't buy the enthusiasm gap for Trump voters thing that the news keeps saying.  There's enthusiasm on both sides and Biden's coalition is bigger.  That's why I think these numbers are important.

[Non Swing Voter]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

This is a good site for early/mail vote in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

It seems the more Democratic areas of the state have higher early voter turnout than the Republocan areas, which is expected.

This visual is good too:

https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/mail-applications-congressional-district-2020-vs-2016/

It shows relative numbers for each district and 2016.  The three Northern Virginia numbers are up the most. 

CD8 = most urban district, more like DC, very liberal (most requests)
CD10 = most suburban district, more swingy but moderate to liberal, upscale, this is the district that Comstock used to represent (second most requests)
CD11 = diverse, slightly more working class (third most requests but relatively speaking up more than CD10)

Seems like the relative gains are for urban voters and minorities.  Suburban voters showing huge turnout too but started at a high number already.

[DINGO Joe]

For Virginia, part of the shift is just the sheer changes in population.  Loudoun county has added 43,000 voters since 2016 from 232,000 to 275,000.  Meanwhile, take three coal counties from SW Virginia, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Lee they've gone from a combined 42,000 voters in 2016 to 40,000 in the latest numbers.  So, Loudoun has literally added the voting equivalent of those three counties in just 4 years.  An extreme example, but very illustrative of Va.

[republican1993]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

This is a good site for early/mail vote in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

It seems the more Democratic areas of the state have higher early voter turnout than the Republocan areas, which is expected.

Thank you!! super helpful - i see they are showing the district breakdown by district - they aren't showing the party breakdown anywhere?

Yeah as others have said, no registration by party, but the heavy turnout appears to be in urban/suburban areas that are not friendly to the GOP.  Anecdotally if looks like suburban white females are disproportionately turning out.  Maybe the RBG thing is motivating them?  These people would likely vote anyways, not really low propensity voters, but when you have like 20% voter turnout already in some of the most heavily democratic precincts it shows Democrats are clearly motivated.  So I don't buy the enthusiasm gap for Trump voters thing that the news keeps saying.  There's enthusiasm on both sides and Biden's coalition is bigger.  That's why I think these numbers are important.

I agree! makes me nervous but i see they are def motivating in the first few weeks of early voting.

[Non Swing Voter]

For Virginia, part of the shift is just the sheer changes in population.  Loudoun county has added 43,000 voters since 2016 from 232,000 to 275,000.  Meanwhile, take three coal counties from SW Virginia, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Lee they've gone from a combined 42,000 voters in 2016 to 40,000 in the latest numbers.  So, Loudoun has literally added the voting equivalent of those three counties in just 4 years.  An extreme example, but very illustrative of Va.

Yes, Northern Virginia (depending how you define it) used to be like 30% of the statewide total, it's more like 35% nowadays.  Democrats winning NOVA + Richmond area is probably enough to win statewide now even if they lose the Virginia Beach area + rural Virginia.

[jamestroll]

For Virginia, part of the shift is just the sheer changes in population.  Loudoun county has added 43,000 voters since 2016 from 232,000 to 275,000.  Meanwhile, take three coal counties from SW Virginia, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Lee they've gone from a combined 42,000 voters in 2016 to 40,000 in the latest numbers.  So, Loudoun has literally added the voting equivalent of those three counties in just 4 years.  An extreme example, but very illustrative of Va.

Yes, Northern Virginia (depending how you define it) used to be like 30% of the statewide total, it's more like 35% nowadays.  Democrats winning NOVA + Richmond area is probably enough to win statewide now even if they lose the Virginia Beach area + rural Virginia.

The Hampton Roads region as a whole seems to lean slightly Democratic but I feel like it will be the region that gives Democrats the most headaches under any Democratic president. Will not even be close to being a solid GOP region but its relatively large population is what would cause some handwringing in close state wide races.

[wbrocks67]

People should keep in mind that 2016 non-voter just means that the person in question did not vote in that particular state. There is almost no way of knowing whether that person voted in a different state

Eh, sure, but I doubt that's a super high % of the overall "2016 non voter" composite

[bilaps]

Do we have a racial breakdown of these NC numbers so far?

Edit. Found it.

[kph14]

For Virginia, part of the shift is just the sheer changes in population.  Loudoun county has added 43,000 voters since 2016 from 232,000 to 275,000.  Meanwhile, take three coal counties from SW Virginia, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Lee they've gone from a combined 42,000 voters in 2016 to 40,000 in the latest numbers.  So, Loudoun has literally added the voting equivalent of those three counties in just 4 years.  An extreme example, but very illustrative of Va.

Yes, Northern Virginia (depending how you define it) used to be like 30% of the statewide total, it's more like 35% nowadays.  Democrats winning NOVA + Richmond area is probably enough to win statewide now even if they lose the Virginia Beach area + rural Virginia.

The Hampton Roads region as a whole seems to lean slightly Democratic but I feel like it will be the region that gives Democrats the most headaches under any Democratic president. Will not even be close to being a solid GOP region but its relatively large population is what would cause some handwringing in close state wide races.

In the Hampton Roads region Democratic support depends very much on minority turnout which tends to plummet in non-presidential elections