2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

PA numbers picking up, but still very low compared to other states.  But the partisan gap is enormous.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

198k D
42k R

3:1. That electoral makeup is reminiscent of MN in 2018.

Whats your analysis?  MN was a democratic blowout in 2018 right?

Yes. Democrats received more overall votes in MN in 2018 than they did in 2016. If these are the first numbers coming in with barely anything from Philly and all of its suburbs, then things are looking good in terms of turnout from Democrats.

We can't derive any final results, of course, but the signs are promising for now.

Yeah even though people say they would have voted anyways and this means nothing, etc., I think it's meaningful.  Biden can check these people off the list and target people who haven't voted.  Trump's banking on an overwhelming, massive turnout on Election Day that skews towards him.  But a lot of people who aren't all that political will probably lean to Biden and vote on Election Day, cutting down Trump's margin then.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also - Democrats have a 330k vote lead in Florida now.

[Non Swing Voter]

South Dakota vote update. Over 123,000 votes have been cast, almost 200,000 votes shy of the total 2016 vote total.

South Dakotans really want their weed and gambling.

[Non Swing Voter]

160,000 people have voted in Palm Beach County, FL.

Lots of elderly voters there.  Maybe a bloodbath for Trump that makes up for any softness in support for Biden in Miami?

[Non Swing Voter]

FLORIDA

1,519,079 votes cast

Democratic 778,283 (51.2%)
Republican 443,157 (29.2%)
Others 297,639 (19.6%)

Dem lead increases to 335,126

Another ~180k ballots were processed today

The Florida numbers are becoming fairly stunning given that there's not in person voting yet (right?).  I am starting to think Mike Bloomberg is playing a big role here.  What else explains this.

[Non Swing Voter]

FLORIDA

1,519,079 votes cast

Democratic 778,283 (51.2%)
Republican 443,157 (29.2%)
Others 297,639 (19.6%)

Dem lead increases to 335,126

Another ~180k ballots were processed today

The Florida numbers are becoming fairly stunning given that there's not in person voting yet (right?).

Correct, in-person early voting doesn't begin 'til Mon., Oct. 19th.

I am starting to think Mike Bloomberg is playing a big role here.  What else explains this.

Incorrect. As somebody on the ground, I'd contend that if Bloomberg is responsible in anyway, then it's only negligibly. The main factors at play here are the general trend of Democratic enthusiasm being through the f**king roof & the fact that a deadly global pandemic is currently occurring.

are old people in Florida turning on Trump in a meaningful way?

[Non Swing Voter]

The USPS stuff might have backfired on Trump. It looks like it scared a lot of Democrats into sending their ballots in as early as possible.

Yeah, I think so.  When you put a closer artificial deadline on something it encourages people to take it more seriously.  I bet the GOP shenanigans actually increase overall turnout. 

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Democrats will get the coveted 600k vote lead in Florida before Election Day...  still not sure where 600k came from though...

[Non Swing Voter]

The USPS stuff might have backfired on Trump. It looks like it scared a lot of Democrats into sending their ballots in as early as possible.

I knew it'd backfire on him as soon as it became headline news. Yet we had a few good months of bedwetters still saying it'd lead to Trump's reelection and Democrats being too weak & submissive to do anything about it

Well, to be fair Democrats have tended to cower and not do anything over the last 4 years so it was a reasonable assumption.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Dems up 357k in Florida now

[Non Swing Voter]

This is a pretty nice summary of the absentee and early voting schedule by state.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is a pretty nice summary of the absentee and early voting schedule by state.

Eh, I can point out at least 1 inaccuracy, given that I got my ballot in the mail on the 29th of Sept. & that chart says FL doesn't start mailing ballots 'til Oct. 1st.

well it's a good general guideline.  Some of these dates are somewhat in flux as well due to ongoing court battles.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is a pretty nice summary of the absentee and early voting schedule by state.

Eh, I can point out at least 1 inaccuracy, given that I got my ballot in the mail on the 29th of Sept. & that chart says FL doesn't start mailing ballots 'til Oct. 1st.

well it's a good general guideline.  Some of these dates are somewhat in flux as well due to ongoing court battles.

Wait, why does Oklahoma bother having in person EV when it's only open 3 days (10/29-31)?

Seems dumb although I'm sure there's more interest right before the election than now so it probably still will produce a fair amount of early votes.

[Non Swing Voter]

Now up to 9.2 million early votes. 

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

really insane when you consider there's either nothing or a small percent from 3 of the 4 biggest states (NY, CA, TX) and still a lot of other states that haven't even started reporting.  I think turnout is going to be massive this year.

[Non Swing Voter]

2016 PA dem lead; 900,000
2020 PA dem lead; 700,000

are you talking about voter registration? you should provide more context to your post.

I think so Ye, saw it on a tweet

November 2016
Dems 4,217,456 (48.3%)
Reps 3,301,182 (37.8%)
Other 1,204,339 (13.9%)
Total 8,722,977

October 2020
Dems 4,168,900 (46.9%)
Reps 3,451,514 (38.7%)
Other 1,277,325 (14.4%)
Total 8,897,739

In 2016, Dems lead over Reps was 916K (10.5%), while it's now 717K (8.2%). So yes, it's down, but PA is a very complex state and it's hard to tell whether these are truly people converting to R, or a bunch of ancestral Ds that have been voting R and now just making it official. You also have a lot of people in the PA suburbs as well who are still Republicans who aren't as fast to change their registration to D. (for example, i know one - my mom, she only *just* changed to D this year from being R for 30+ years)

The other problem with this narrative is that Dems lead was lower in 2018 (9.8%) than it was in 2016 (10.5%) and yet Casey and Wolf both won by double digits.

Right.  The party registration numbers don't tell the full story.  Clearly a large chunk of those "Democrats" were voting Republican consistently otherwise Democrats would be winning every election with such a massive advantage.  At least a lot of those people switching over is giving us a better idea of true D vs. R.  One could say that despite this transition Democrats still lead in the early vote by a wide margin, which is probably a bit more accurate in terms of who they are voting for than it would have been if those rural Democrats didn't switch party registration.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

Request figures seem not to be changing. Are those only updated weekly or something?

At this point I bet few new people are requesting ballots.  Anyone who wants to vote now is probably just waiting til early voting starts soon.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

This seems quite stunning, especially since aren't FL Dems notorious for returning their ballots in slow fashion?

Yes although it's a pretty different dynamic this year with covid.  I believe Dems usually over perform in in person early voting.  If that is also true this year then that would be a really good sign that the absentee ballots aren't just simply eating into Democrats who'd vote anyways. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Vote dump from PA and MI. 

In PA, Dems have a 300k to 56k ballot lead.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Lots of votes in from Philly.

[Non Swing Voter]

Vote dump from PA and MI. 

In PA, Dems have a 300k to 56k ballot lead.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Lots of votes in from Philly.

What's most stark is the return rate. Dems have already returned 18%. Reps only 9%.

Yeah and they have tons more ballots requested too so you'd think it would be lower.

[Non Swing Voter]

Now do you see why Georgia won’t flip?

No.  I think this is good.  Get the votes in early so the lines aren't massive on Election Day.

[Non Swing Voter]

Does anyone know what turnout was in Dane and Milwaukee in 2016 as a reference point?  I'm assuming Dane was high and Milwaukee was lower. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Does anyone know what turnout was in Dane and Milwaukee in 2016 as a reference point?  I'm assuming Dane was high and Milwaukee was lower. 

Turnout in Dane was 82.4% while Turnout in Milwaukee was 79.8%

Thanks!

[Non Swing Voter]

Was just thinking about the conversation on old people voting really early.  I think this is good for Biden.  Trump is at a low point right now and covid is dominating the conversation.  I'd rather have old people locking in their votes now.  Biden doesn't even need to win them, he just needs to do well.  Young people will vote for him later in the calendar.

[Non Swing Voter]

Nevada has posted its first numbers (so far only four rural counties). Funny enough, Democrats lead the returns in all four counties which all have a lot more registered Republicans than Democrats

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9054

Do we think these are actual Dems or ancestral rural Dems who are voting GOP anyways?