GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[ProudModerate2]

And here's a new piece of bad news for Walker:

Republican Herschel Walker is getting a tax break intended only for a primary residence this year on his home in the Dallas, Texas, area, despite running for Senate in Georgia.

Publicly available tax records reviewed by CNN’s KFile show Walker is listed to get a homestead tax exemption in Texas in 2022, saving the Senate candidate approximately $1,500 and potentially running afoul of both Texas tax rules and some Georgia rules on establishing residency for the purpose of voting or running for office.

Walker registered to vote in Atlanta, Georgia, in 2021 after living in Texas for two decades and voting infrequently. In Texas, homeowner regulations say you can only take the exemption on your “principal residence.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/23/politics/kfile-herschel-walker-texas-tax-break-georgia-runoff

This could benefit Warnock, just like it helped the Dems in PA.
The "carpetbagger" label and commercials about Oz, had been reported to assist Fetterman to a good extent.
If Warnock can bleed Walker and gain say 1 or 2% from this, he is in.
I would flood the TV market with massive commercials on Walker being an out-of-state opportunist.

[ProudModerate2]

This video commercial is hilarious.
Take a look ...

https://twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1596532507566133250

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1600291195250298885

They were saying on CNN, that the Cobb County numbers were initially wrong.
Is this the corrected numbers, or the old (wrong) numbers?

[ProudModerate2]

Needle is on the edge of Tossup and lean Warnock now.

Can someone post the link to "the needle."
thank you.

[ProudModerate2]

Needle is on the edge of Tossup and lean Warnock now.

Can someone post the link to "the needle."
thank you.

this is as good as I can do unless you want to sign up for NYT's email swarm.

Thank you.
But I found it.
Seems to be completely free access to see/watch.
Link here ...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/06/us/elections/results-georgia-us-senate-runoff.html

[ProudModerate2]

Oh oh.
Things are starting to swing to Walker.
Even the Times needle is starting to change.

[ProudModerate2]

The NY Times entire page froze, and "the Needle" is broken.
It says ...

We have temporarily paused updates to our estimates while we investigate a data issue.

[ProudModerate2]

Walker is leading now.
Ugggggg.

[ProudModerate2]

Not even 5 minutes since the needle broke and folks are already having the shakes

I feel like I have no oxygen to breath without the needle.
Help.

[ProudModerate2]

You junkies are absolutely addicted to the needle. Sad sight.

This is me drinking coffee, right now.

[ProudModerate2]

Just WAIT for more votes. This is still a lean Warnock race at worst.

I know. I agree.
I'm just having fun with "the broken needle" and the numbers at this time.

[ProudModerate2]

LOL.
Do you guys think "the needle" broke, because the programmers who designed it, forgot to put in the codes to accept that Walker may temporarily lead. So when that happened, the algorithms "did not compute" and it froze.

[ProudModerate2]

I wonder if trump cultists are saying that the voting should really, actually and legally stop right now, with Walker barely leading, and thus Walker is the winner.
Any additional counting is fraud by Dems to steal this election.

[ProudModerate2]

THE NEEDLE IS BACK!

And it's off the charts that Warnock is going to win.

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1600336669244268544

[ProudModerate2]

The New York Times ("The Needle" page) is still estimating a +2.9 margin of victory for Warnock (when it's all counted and done for), even though his margin is currently showing +1.7.

Seems there are still many votes to be counted in large, high-Dem counties/jurisdictions.

[ProudModerate2]

After tonights Performance JON OSSOFF for me is a sure GONER in 2026 regardless if it's a Biden or Republican Midterm bcuz he won't be able to replicate the Warnock Coalition from 2021 and 2022.

[ProudModerate2]

I did not listen to Warnock speak much in the past, but hearing his victory speech right now, he is a well-spoken gentleman of high integrity.
Glad to see him win over the trump-supported Dimwit the R's put-up.

[ProudModerate2]

I took a break for a while, so I missed the last 10 pages or so.
But have there been any trump Tweets or other social media comments directly from him, regarding HIS Walker loss?

[ProudModerate2]

The New York Times ("The Needle" page) is still estimating a +2.9 margin of victory for Warnock (when it's all counted and done for), even though his margin is currently showing +1.7.

Seems there are still many votes to be counted in large, high-Dem counties/jurisdictions.

The Needle is crap with that Estimation.
How does Warnock get a 2.9 margin if only 46,000 Votes are left Statewide per NBC!

Cause they are in DeKalb lol. And there's likely more than that. Are you this ignorant?

User 2016 ...
Just over the last 45 minutes or so, the margin has been updated and is now at +2.4
So 2.9 is almost there.

Edit to add:  2.9 is an estimate. The NY Times page has updated the number to 2.8
But it any case it will probably fall some where between 2.4 and 2.9 when it is all counted.

[ProudModerate2]

DeKalb County posts and just like I predicted a short while ago

Warnock 51.2
Walker 48.8

Maybe 10 or 15K are left Statewide.

Still puzzled where crappy Nate Cohn and his nonsense NEEDLE get the 2.9 Warnock Margin.

Will you stop already.
You are totally embarrassing yourself.

[ProudModerate2]

DeKalb County posts and just like I predicted a short while ago

Warnock 51.2
Walker 48.8

Maybe 10 or 15K are left Statewide.

Still puzzled where crappy Nate Cohn and his nonsense NEEDLE get the 2.9 Warnock Margin.

I don't trust the Needle much.  But I trust it A LOT more than I trust you.

One thing to note with the model setup on The Needle page, is that with the majority of numbers in the state already counted ... this means that their final prediction becomes more and more accurate to likely happen (within a small/tiny limit of changing).

[ProudModerate2]

The New York Times ("The Needle" page) is still estimating a +2.9 margin of victory for Warnock (when it's all counted and done for), even though his margin is currently showing +1.7.

Seems there are still many votes to be counted in large, high-Dem counties/jurisdictions.

The Needle is crap with that Estimation.
How does Warnock get a 2.9 margin if only 46,000 Votes are left Statewide per NBC!

Cause they are in DeKalb lol. And there's likely more than that. Are you this ignorant?

User 2016 ...
Just over the last 45 minutes or so, the margin has been updated and is now at +2.4
So 2.9 is almost there.

Edit to add:  2.9 is an estimate. The NY Times page has updated the number to 2.8
But it any case it will probably fall some where between 2.4 and 2.9 when it is all counted.

Almost all of the Votes are IN now. NBC just like I did estimates that 17,000 Ballots are remaining Statewide. How does Warnock get to 2.9, tell me? He would need another 50K Votes to get there.

Dude,
The margin jumped from 1.7 when you first started your conniption fit, to 2.4
That's a swing of 0.7
Do you get it now?

[ProudModerate2]

@ProudModerate2,
Warnock will not get 2.9!
Deal?

Are you even reading all my posts.
The NY Times page has changed. It has changed all night. Their last estimate is 2.8 (no longer 2.9)
But as the counting is near the end, their number will become more and more accurate to happen, as they get to the finish line in the count.
It's going to be somewhere between 2.4 and 2.9

[ProudModerate2]

I took a break for a while, so I missed the last 10 pages or so.
But have there been any trump Tweets or other social media comments directly from him, regarding HIS Walker loss?

He said this.

OUR COUNTRY IS IN BIG TROUBLE. WHAT A MESS!

But not clear if he's talking about the race or the conviction today.

Did he really say that?
OMG.