Will there be a sympathy/rally around flag bump for Trump or hurt him - megathread

[ProudModerate2]

He'll probably gain 3-4 points

LOL.
What the hell is this?

[ProudModerate2]

I'm a little surprised we haven't gotten a right-wing take yet of "Brave Trump risked the virus while Cowardly Biden hid from it". (I'm confident it's coming in some form within the next 24 hours.)

Not sure if you are being comedic, or you didn't read all the posts before yours.
But SirWoodbury pretty-much did exactly that. (See his post on prior page. I also posted his comment below.) ...

"They're going to sympatize more with Trump, because he went out to face the virus, meanwhile Biden sits in his basement all day."

[ProudModerate2]

Some of you are going to drive me bananas over this "sympathy bump."

[ProudModerate2]

Maybe not a rally around the flag effect, but what about depressed turnout among the Dems?

Let me explain why I think it can happen.

While Trump voters almost unanimously support and love Trump, more than 50% of Biden voters don't care for Biden and are actually Trump haters (various degrees of anti-Trump sentiment). To get out and vote for a candidate that is not Trump, but who you don't particularly like and may even dislike, you need to hate Trump. But it is no longer possible for a sizeable number of these voters to actually hate Trump. The end result will be that they will not vote.

So they're just going to forgive him for four years of policies and allow him to continue for another four just because he's sick for a few weeks? Can you explain how this works?

You need motivation to get out and vote. I'm not talking about party loyalists and hardliners. I'm talking about regular people who dislike Trump and would vote for Biden solely for that reason. There are never-Trump Republicans in this group, independents, some Democrats who rarely vote. These people are motivated by Trump's behavior and style, not his policies. And if he has changed his style, they will be less likely to actually get out and vote. Plus, he is sick now and they may not hate him or not as much anymore.

LOL.
There is your problem right there in red (above).
He "has changed his style"?

[ProudModerate2]

Maybe not a rally around the flag effect, but what about depressed turnout among the Dems?

Let me explain why I think it can happen.

While Trump voters almost unanimously support and love Trump, more than 50% of Biden voters don't care for Biden and are actually Trump haters (various degrees of anti-Trump sentiment). To get out and vote for a candidate that is not Trump, but who you don't particularly like and may even dislike, you need to hate Trump. But it is no longer possible for a sizeable number of these voters to actually hate Trump. The end result will be that they will not vote.

So they're just going to forgive him for four years of policies and allow him to continue for another four just because he's sick for a few weeks? Can you explain how this works?

You need motivation to get out and vote. I'm not talking about party loyalists and hardliners. I'm talking about regular people who dislike Trump and would vote for Biden solely for that reason. There are never-Trump Republicans in this group, independents, some Democrats who rarely vote. These people are motivated by Trump's behavior and style, not his policies. And if he has changed his style, they will be less likely to actually get out and vote. Plus, he is sick now and they may not hate him or not as much anymore.

LOL.
There is your problem right there in red (above).
He "has changed his style"?

There are signs that he has changed his style. We'll see.

You must have missed the news about his little stunt, where he took a "car ride around the hospital" like a child-demanding-brat. And how he unnecessarily exposed all those people in his security vehicle to Covid.