MT Congressional Redistricting

[politicallefty]

Still pretty easy to draw a map with no county splits that looks nice -




https://davesredistricting.org/join/2b9579a9-1252-41a1-965a-b689a4d832bc

Almost all Native American reservations in MT-2 (yes, excluding that one precinct in Missoula) and only 88 deviation total, no county splits.

Maybe the commission will copy this one too :-D

Haha, your map is proposal #2 on the commission's site.

My main problem is most of the main West/East divides seem intent on splitting Gallatin County (and putting Bozeman in the eastern district). All of the proposals seem intent on keeping Lewis and Clark intact and in the western district. One variation of #7 I'm surprised to not see is putting Lewis and Clark in the eastern district and putting all of Gallatin in the western district. The difference is a district that voted for Trump by over 13% versus 7-9% (the latter margin depends on where you put Glacier County). Assuming new maps can be introduced, that could be a potential compromise map between the two sides.

Going based on the numbers on the commission's site, I'd have to say my top three are #2, #7, and #9 (in no particular order).

[politicallefty]

Kept swingy Park instead of deep blue Glacier.

That's a very acceptable map. Once you get the counties in green established (minus Park County), you have three main options. Yours is one, although I'm not terribly fond of a 4-digit deviation. A more Republican district goes into Jefferson County and splits Broadwater County is Trump+8.6%. The more Democratic version takes all of Glacier County and part of Pondera County to create a Trump+6.9% district. I think any of the three are very strong compromise maps .

[politicallefty]

I drew the map below which nobody else on the planet seemed to replicate. I guess that means I am uniquely perspicacious or uniquely obtuse.

If there's one obvious aspect of the commission maps, it's that Republicans absolutely do not want the entirety of Gallatin County (namely Bozeman) in the western district. The main intention of most of the Democratic maps seems to be to keep all of the reservations together in the eastern district. That alone makes it easier to make the western district more competitive.

This is a map I mentioned above that puts the Blackfeet Indian Reservation in the western district (along with the Flathead Reservation):

[politicallefty]

I'll be stunned if that's the map, especially as a consensus proposal. I would've figured splitting Flathead County would be a nonstarter. It's not the prettiest map, but it does create an extremely competitive western district (and at least it keeps all of Bozeman in the western district).

[politicallefty]

That's a strange one. It splits Gallatin, but appears to put Bozeman in the western district. I can't quite tell what's going on with Helena though.

[politicallefty]

That's a strange one. It splits Gallatin, but appears to put Bozeman in the western district. I can't quite tell what's going on with Helena though.

All of Helena/Lewis & Clark is in the east district. MT-01 is R+8.3 and MT-02 R+25.3

It looks like an attempt to appease those that insist on putting Bozeman in the western district. It splits Gallatin County and weirdly juts out on the northern part, likely to move the western district a couple points to the right. I drew a map on the previous page that puts all of Gallatin County in the western district and all of Lewis and Clark in the eastern.

[politicallefty]

Third map from today:

Not sure why that one splits two counties. The western district is Trump+2.5 in that map.

[politicallefty]

Another proposal from the GOP side:



MT-01: R+6.9
MT-02: R+26.9

I'm pretty sure that's my map from page 9. I was only envisioning it as a possible compromise between the two sides at the time.

[politicallefty]

I hope they choose the Democratic map, but if they choose the Republican map, can I get some sort of prize for possibly coming up with one of the most accurate maps that becomes law? 

[politicallefty]

The proposed map is almost identical to the compromise map I posted on page 9. It looks like maybe a precinct or two different in Pondera County. I think it's the best way to have a western COI district and keep it as competitive as possible. The SW MT district was really basically a pipe dream for Democrats. It's hard to argue for putting Flathead County in the eastern district, which is what is necessary to get the Trump margin down to 2-3 points.

I don't think Democrats played their hand badly. They were stubborn, but that's generally worked for Republicans in almost everything they do (where Democrats keep compromising themselves down). The initial Republican maps were all intent on putting Bozeman in the eastern district, leaving the western district as a double digit Trump district. This compromise proposal is at a far more reasonable number that is potentially competitive with a strong Democratic candidate. They really should take the offer in the end though. There's not going to be a better map than this.

How did Obama do in the western District?

I don't have the exact numbers, but it looks like Obama won it by a couple points in 2008 and lost it by mid-high single digits in 2012 (looks like roughly the same margin as 2020).

[politicallefty]

Interesting.  Seems Dem commissioners (and a couple clearly left-leaning I's) keep blowing it by pushing too hard.

Gallatin and Glacier Counties did end up wholly in the western district and it's obviously much closer to competitive than what the legislature would have drawn.  Also Helena has been pretty R-leaning presidentially for a while now. 

Honestly seems like the door is being slammed shut for Dems anywhere they rely on ancestral rural support.  Maybe it will be different in the West, but I'm not sure it even matters what MT draws at this point?

Let's see what happens first. If the Dem commissioners don't take this deal, they'll have really f-cked up. This is a very fair and reasonable map for a state like Montana. The legislature would've put Bozeman in the eastern district and probably Deer Lodge and Silver Bow as well. Their goal would've been to have both districts approximate the statewide vote while maintaining an East/West divide. I don't think even they would've had the gall to attempt a North/South split, especially when it isn't necessary (unless you think Eastern MT voters are more reliably Republican, which might be true to certain extent).

I don't see the door being shut for Democrats in a place like Western Montana. Biden's numbers were roughly the same as Obama's in 2012. If you look at the swings in Montana compared to 2016, Biden improved significantly over Clinton, especially in the cities (namely Missoula and Bozeman, but even Flathead County had a decent swing to Biden). Gallatin County was actually a Romney-Clinton-Biden county (also the lone county in Montana that swung her way compared to 2012).

[politicallefty]

Hey, this was basically the map I was offering as a potential compromise a couple pages back, lol. It was just a precinct or a couple off (about as close as realistically possible). My post at the top of the page applies.

I think the path for a Democratic win in the district looks something like Bullock's narrow lost in the district in the Senate race: blowout margin in Missoula, keep Flathead within 25%, and get a double digit win in Gallatin. The task gets more difficult if the rurals keep trending away (Western rurals seem to be a bit different, so there could be stabilization there). It's also a bit of a problem if Democrats can't regain their strength in ancestrally Democratic Silver Bow County. Hillary had the worst raw vote total there since 1924. It only marginally swung toward Biden, but it trended the opposite direction.