MT Congressional Redistricting

[walleye26]

Alright Atlas, it looks like Montana will be gaining a Congressional Seat in 2020, regaining the 2nd district they lost from 1990. Post your maps of the two districts.

[Oryxslayer]

Wrong subforum. Mods moved it.

[brucejoel99]

Wrong subforum.

[Skill and Chance]

There is a nonpartisan commission in the state constitution that draws all of the districts.  It explicitly includes congressional districts, so who controls the state government is irrelevant in MT.  The historical cultural/political divide in the state is East (R, plains, farmers) vs. West (D, mountains, mining).  It is thus highly likely the commission will draw an Eastern MT district and a Western MT district.  The historical Dem base in Western MT has moved right as expected, but there are growing resort and college towns in the west that have combined with just enough of the historical mining/union vote to keep the state competitive below the presidential level.  Both districts would be Trump districts, but an all Western MT district would be Trump by single digits and probably the single most likely 2X Trump district in the country for a Democrat to win for these historical reasons.

[Heir of Camelot]

Quist won the West by 5 points in '17. It would be tilt D at the Congressional level and might even go blue at the Presidential level for a non-Hillary type candidate. Obama would have won the West in '08 for example.

I've heard rumors that it might not be strict East-West since western Montana now has significantly more people than Eastern but instead a safer D district would be formed. The rumor I've heard is that Flathead Co. would end up in the "Eastern" half with Billings etc. and Gallatin would be in the West forming 2 safe districts for Republicans and Democrats respectively.

I would personally hate this because I enjoy competitive races and I'd like to see strong Dem candidates that can win tough races instead of just anyone the party decides on because it's "their turn" and its a safe district etc.

Should be interesting to see how this shakes out.

[OBD]

Quist won the West by 5 points in '17. It would be tilt D at the Congressional level and might even go blue at the Presidential level for a non-Hillary type candidate. Obama would have won the West in '08 for example.

I've heard rumors that it might not be strict East-West since western Montana now has significantly more people than Eastern but instead a safer D district would be formed. The rumor I've heard is that Flathead Co. would end up in the "Eastern" half with Billings etc. and Gallatin would be in the West forming 2 safe districts for Republicans and Democrats respectively.

I would personally hate this because I enjoy competitive races and I'd like to see strong Dem candidates that can win tough races instead of just anyone the party decides on because it's "their turn" and its a safe district etc.

Should be interesting to see how this shakes out.

Not to burst your bubble but based on my experimentation any Western MT district will be around Trump +6-8 at the least. That's a Lean R district nationally and a tossup at best on the local level.

[Oryxslayer]

First things first, as noted above, Montana has a commission. This means that in the event Montana gets two districts, the most natural COIs will be respected: one in the Mountain west, and one in the eastern Plains.



This is probably a good delineation map to start with. The problem is that the West has ~50K more people in it when compared to the East. This number itself is in a bit of flux - DRA uses 2016 numbers, and the oil price-tag has dropped since that date, causing there to be less growth in the East. This would give the West a larger percentage of the state's population, meaning more population would have to be transferred east. Whatever the case though, the west will have to drop some counties from it's COI to fill up the eastern seat.

There are three possible options: drop Helena, drop Bozeman, or drop Kalispell. All three are above the 50K deviation, meaning other counties will need to be transferred between east and west once one is cut. It is also crucial to remember road and highway connections in the West - dropping a county or two may cut off a whole bunch more. The following maps took this into account, and I also tried to get the lowest possible deviation between east and west.



Here is a version that drops Central Helena. This is the most limiting of the potential cuts for several reasons. Helena has the lowest pop of the three counties, meaning that there is now less wiggle room when grabbing counties from the east to refill the district. Helenas central location also means that road connections are now tight. Powell is the only other county from the West which can potentially join Helena in the East, meaning that numbers once again are tight.



Here is the version which drops Bozeman. This version of the map really wants to grab Great Falls. The north of the state has limited population, making re-balancing the districts difficult. Great Falls however has too many people. This means the only option available for a northern oriented district is to push deep into the rural Northeast. This version would also have to adjust their end lines to comply with the cross-county native reservations in Hill.



Here is the version that drops Kalispell. This version by far has the easiest time refilling the West after dropping below the threshold with the county's transfer. The south of the state has the most population, and it varies significantly on a county-to-county level. The big problem for this version is how the removal of Kalispell affects the visual form of the Western seat the most, important when it comes to public perceptions.

Partisan-wise, there is very little deviation between all three seats. There is significant east-west partisanship. Since Montana is peculiar locally, the Dems would likely start with the advantage in the west. Tester '18 wins all versions of the west by double digits despite winning by 3%, and Williams wins the west by an average 4% despite losing by 5% statewide. However, the seat would still be competitive.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Does the commission require whole-county districts? Looking at it on a map, it seems like the most natural option would be to carve out Bozeman but leave most of the rest of Gallatin County in the western district.

[Pollster]

Perhaps not the point of this thread, but if Kathleen Williams loses again this year, is Amanda Curtis the likely Democratic candidate for the Western seat in 2022?

[MT Treasurer]

It’s going to be impossible to draw two districts which are Safe R "locally," and there’s a good chance a "Western" district will be competitive in presidential elections as well.

Does the commission require whole-county districts? Looking at it on a map, it seems like the most natural option would be to carve out Bozeman but leave most of the rest of Gallatin County in the western district.

Yeah, it would look a lot like this, and I’d argue it’s one of the "cleanest" maps:



Not sure why no one posted a similar version. Bozeman being in the second district might be a headache for the GOP, but there’s really not that much wiggle room.

[Heir of Camelot]

The rumor I heard is they will carve out Kalispell to make a bluer Western district but we'll see.

I don't believe Amanda Curtiss or Kathleen Williams will be the candidate. Both are 2-time losers who don't garner much enthusiasm. I feel like it will be a new face. I have my eye on several dark horses.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is my take on a map. Democrats on the commission if they are smart should push for a map like this. I know that Montana technically has a nonpartisan commission, but from what I have heard, its possible for the commission to be manipulated, and if so, its the Democrats who are in a position to do so.
Its not that bad from a COI perspective either, as it splits no counties, and it keeps most of the medium sized cities in the state whole (Montana has no big cities so medium sized cities are the biggest in the state).

[Oryxslayer]

This is my take on a map. Democrats on the commission if they are smart should push for a map like this. I know that Montana technically has a nonpartisan commission, but from what I have heard, its possible for the commission to be manipulated, and if so, its the Democrats who are in a position to do so.
Its not that bad from a COI perspective either, as it splits no counties, and it keeps most of the medium sized cities in the state whole (Montana has no big cities so medium sized cities are the biggest in the state).

This is a good time to mention that if Bozeman is in the western district, one should try and ensure that Jefferson and Broadwater are also in the same seat. This is because of I90, and how it's essentially the only main road going west to Butte.

[MT Treasurer]

The rumor I heard is they will carve out Kalispell to make a bluer Western district but we'll see.

Honestly, given trends and growth patterns, carving out Kalispell and ensuring that the rest of Flathead Co. is in the second district is probably the only way you can create two non-competitive districts (only way Rs might flip MT-01 is in a R wave year, and even then it would be close).

That said, I’m pretty sure the commission will try their best to stick to the boundary lines of the counties/towns, so that would make Oryxslayer's maps more likely than mine or yours. We’ll just have to see, I guess.

[Heir of Camelot]

Yeah I agree, after pulling out a map and eyeballing it closely. Getting Missoula, Bozeman, Helena and Butte in the same district is I'm sure what they are trying to do here.

[Tintrlvr]

Here's the map I would do if I were a Montana Democrat, and it's also very clean. The southwestern district was only Trump+7 but maybe even more relevantly was a full Tester+16.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/44275adf-d1d9-434e-99c9-29ecf10c605d

[Skill and Chance]

The rumor I heard is they will carve out Kalispell to make a bluer Western district but we'll see.

Honestly, given trends and growth patterns, carving out Kalispell and ensuring that the rest of Flathead Co. is in the second district is probably the only way you can create two non-competitive districts (only way Rs might flip MT-01 is in a R wave year, and even then it would be close).

That said, I’m pretty sure the commission will try their best to stick to the boundary lines of the counties/towns, so that would make Oryxslayer's maps more likely than mine or yours. We’ll just have to see, I guess.

Question: Do you think the Western MT district will trend right or left over time?

[Tintrlvr]

The rumor I heard is they will carve out Kalispell to make a bluer Western district but we'll see.

Honestly, given trends and growth patterns, carving out Kalispell and ensuring that the rest of Flathead Co. is in the second district is probably the only way you can create two non-competitive districts (only way Rs might flip MT-01 is in a R wave year, and even then it would be close).

That said, I’m pretty sure the commission will try their best to stick to the boundary lines of the counties/towns, so that would make Oryxslayer's maps more likely than mine or yours. We’ll just have to see, I guess.

Question: Do you think the Western MT district will trend right or left over time?

In the 2018 Senate election, western MT had a D trend while eastern MT had a big R trend, for what it's worth.

Missoula, Bozeman and Helena are clearly places that are going to become more Democratic with time. Butte will probably move the other direction, though.

[Skill and Chance]

The rumor I heard is they will carve out Kalispell to make a bluer Western district but we'll see.

Honestly, given trends and growth patterns, carving out Kalispell and ensuring that the rest of Flathead Co. is in the second district is probably the only way you can create two non-competitive districts (only way Rs might flip MT-01 is in a R wave year, and even then it would be close).

That said, I’m pretty sure the commission will try their best to stick to the boundary lines of the counties/towns, so that would make Oryxslayer's maps more likely than mine or yours. We’ll just have to see, I guess.

Question: Do you think the Western MT district will trend right or left over time?

In the 2018 Senate election, western MT had a D trend while eastern MT had a big R trend, for what it's worth.

Missoula, Bozeman and Helena are clearly places that are going to become more Democratic with time. Butte will probably move the other direction, though.

It seems like a mix of Colorado and West Virginia.  2018 was the 1st time it really looked like the Colorado part dominated the West Virginia part.

[Oryxslayer]

The rumor I heard is they will carve out Kalispell to make a bluer Western district but we'll see.

Honestly, given trends and growth patterns, carving out Kalispell and ensuring that the rest of Flathead Co. is in the second district is probably the only way you can create two non-competitive districts (only way Rs might flip MT-01 is in a R wave year, and even then it would be close).

That said, I’m pretty sure the commission will try their best to stick to the boundary lines of the counties/towns, so that would make Oryxslayer's maps more likely than mine or yours. We’ll just have to see, I guess.

Question: Do you think the Western MT district will trend right or left over time?

In the 2018 Senate election, western MT had a D trend while eastern MT had a big R trend, for what it's worth.

Missoula, Bozeman and Helena are clearly places that are going to become more Democratic with time. Butte will probably move the other direction, though.

It seems like a mix of Colorado and West Virginia.  2018 was the 1st time it really looked like the Colorado part dominated the West Virginia part.

A better comparison might be North Dakota, West Texas, or Alberta, but everyone gets the picture.

[Tintrlvr]

The rumor I heard is they will carve out Kalispell to make a bluer Western district but we'll see.

Honestly, given trends and growth patterns, carving out Kalispell and ensuring that the rest of Flathead Co. is in the second district is probably the only way you can create two non-competitive districts (only way Rs might flip MT-01 is in a R wave year, and even then it would be close).

That said, I’m pretty sure the commission will try their best to stick to the boundary lines of the counties/towns, so that would make Oryxslayer's maps more likely than mine or yours. We’ll just have to see, I guess.

Question: Do you think the Western MT district will trend right or left over time?

In the 2018 Senate election, western MT had a D trend while eastern MT had a big R trend, for what it's worth.

Missoula, Bozeman and Helena are clearly places that are going to become more Democratic with time. Butte will probably move the other direction, though.

It seems like a mix of Colorado and West Virginia.  2018 was the 1st time it really looked like the Colorado part dominated the West Virginia part.

A better comparison might be North Dakota, West Texas, or Alberta, but everyone gets the picture.

I think he means West Virginia = Butte. Which is not a terrible comparison but the Democrats have held up much better in Butte than in West Virginia (obviously). Maybe the Iron Range in Minnesota is a better comparison.

[Heir of Camelot]

Butte is one of the bluest districts in the state. This surprised me as well but it has a long union, mining history. It produced Amanda Curtis. It's not going red anytime soon.

[Sol]

I'm skeptical that Butte will flip long-term. It's a city, historically the largest in the state, and post-industrial cities haven't flipped by and large, unlike towns and rural areas.

[Heir of Camelot]

If anything I think Butte will get even more Liberal when Millenials move in and buy up all the victorian houses and fix them up and make them all hipster heaven. It will gentrify.

If they put Kalispell and Billings in the same district it will be such a b*tch to campaign in. With gas and food/bathroom breaks it's basically a ten hour drive. Kalispell is actually about the same distance away from Seattle as Billings.

[Del Tachi]

If they put Kalispell and Billings in the same district it will be such a b*tch to campaign in. With gas and food/bathroom breaks it's basically a ten hour drive. Kalispell is actually about the same distance away from Seattle as Billings.

This is the same way it is with current MT-AL alignment.