Israel-Gaza war

[Hnv1]

The first major rain in Gaza saw lots of Hamas fighters spring out of the shallower tunnels, which the IDF exploited and went on the offensive. So today we're seeing open street battles for the first time, all across the line in Gaza City. Israeli forces are now pushing east all along

Good to know Hamas tunnels hold up to rain about as well as the New York subway system.

Hamas' tunnel system can be divided into roughly three kinds:
-Attack/defence tunnels - they sit relatively close to the surface as fighters need to be able to pop in and out in a hurry. Susceptible to rains
- Tactical command tunnels - 15-20 meters deep. They usually have halls to store weapons and command posts. Air conditioning and air purification are also included. I'm not sure how well they can deal with rain, but I think they must have some form of drainage system.
Strategic command tunnels - the deepest ones are rumored to be around 50-70 meters deep. That's where the top brass sits. Due to the complexity of building them, there aren't that many around. Probably one compound under Shifa, another one elsewhere in Gaza, and one in Khan Younis.

[Hnv1]

The Israeli Defense Minister is claiming that it controls the "aboveground" area in Northern Gaza and may turn its attention to Southern Gaza soon.

Now I'm a bit confused here, since this would seem to indicate one or perhaps multiple things, but prefer to break down my thoughts by bullet points:

1.) Hamas was estimated at having something around a 22k-28k force within Gaza. Note this does not include members of other Palestinian Political-Military formations, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad within those numbers.

2.) We know based upon Israeli body counts that roughly 1.5k Hamas fighters died in Southern Israel within a couple days from 10/7/23. These deaths disproportionately occurred amongst members of various elite Hamas units.

3.) Israel has definitely pursued a "Command and Control" targeting strategy against Hamas military leaders, not just those involved in the original assault on both Israeli Civilian and Military targets, to the point where they have so loosened up the rules of engagement to the point that well over 10k Palestinian Civilians have likely died, and considering the average age, this probably includes at least 4k children.

4.) We do not have any decent estimates of total Hamas military casualties within Gaza proper, where the initial Israeli Ground Invasion was prefaced with major air and artillery bombardments, to the point where over 10% of the buildings within the entire Gaza Strip have been either destroyed or so heavily damaged as to be uninhabitable.

5.) So, *IF* the IDF has managed to obtain "Control on the Ground" in Northern Gaza, then this would seem to indicate some or all of the following:

    A.) Hamas blew their load with the terrorist assault against both Israeli Citizens, Foreign Nationals within the "War Zone", instead of a more carefully targeted assault against IDF military positions, which led to massive losses against their most elite military units both during and in the aftermath of 10/7/23.

   B.) Hamas Command and Control has so dissipated that there are very few military actions which Hamas is capable of in Northern Gaza engaging in coordinated assaults against Israeli formations to the point which instead we see minor periodic skirmishes, but ultimately incapable of inflicting any serious impactful counter-attacks against IDF movements.

 C.) Many of the Hamas fighters have moved to Southern Gaza to mount a more successful Guerrilla Insurgency and hypothetically buying time for a counter-offensive.

 D.) Original Hamas military force estimates includes a significant number of "Irregulars", more like individuals who were more like a civilian militia, and generally do not include people who had much more than minor level military training.

Naturally this does not preclude the possibility that even within Northern Gaza, which has been turned into much more rubble than Southern Gaza that we will not continue to see a sustained "Grozny Style" or "Mosul Style", Hamas military resistance with significant IDF casualties.

Honestly, from a sheer military perspective thinking the IDF driving armored units down the Beach in the early days of the Israeli Invasion of Gaza might have been a pretty sharp move compared to trying to move armored convoys down roads which might well have been booby-trapped with Anti-Tank Mines, Plastic explosive charges hidden in the bodies of dead dogs, etc...

Israeli forces control “the aboveground area” of the northern Gaza Strip, the defense minister said on Tuesday, and may turn toward southern Gaza, anticipating “long months” of fighting ahead against Hamas.  
“In northern Gaza, Hamas has lost control,” the defense minister, Yoav Gallant, told reporters.

But he made a vital distinction between control above ground and control below, where Hamas militants have built a maze of tactical tunnels, command posts and supply depots. The Israeli military says it has identified hundreds of tunnel shafts in the Gaza Strip since the invasion began.

In a ground invasion that began on Oct. 27, the Israeli military has moved into northern Gaza from multiple directions, trying to trap Hamas fighters in a tightening loop centered on Gaza City, where street battles have raged for days. Israel has told civilians to evacuate northern Gaza and flee southward, which more than a million people have heeded.

When asked whether Israeli troops would operate in southern Gaza as they have in the north, Mr. Gallant said the combat plans he had presented to Israel’s cabinet before the beginning of the ground invasion had required “long months” of fighting and included “both the north and the south.”

In recent days, Israeli forces secured control of various Hamas centers of operations, including government buildings, police headquarters and an engineering facility “used for weapons production and development,” according to a statement made by the Israeli military.

Some of the outposts, including the Governor’s Residence, were used by Hamas before it led the Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military’s chief spokesman, said in a post on X, formally known as Twitter.

Once inside the Governor’s Residence, military forces found equipment, including weapons, stolen by Hamas during the Oct. 7 attack, Admiral Hagari said in another post on X. Those weapons will be examined by the Israeli military, he said.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/11/14/world/israel-hamas-gaza-war-news

It was estimated that around 14K Hamas men were in Gaza City. You can augment them with 1K PIJ men if you wish. The IDF claims it killed something between 2-3K in battle. Now even of that 28K figure most can fight as a part of a small squad and nothing more. After most of the mid-level hierarchy died, some of the low tier fighters dropped the RPG and fled.

What in fact happened was that Hamas was under the impression that their tunnel system could delay the IDF and cause much more damage. They did not anticipate the extent of bunker busting and other technological means that destroyed a lot of tunnels in the process (and sheer fire power simply wiped out numerous hide outs above ground). In addition, the IDF's new joint maneuver that combines ground and aerial forces proved highly efficient in breaking through the Hamas exterior belt of defence. There are still several thousand Hamas men in Gaza City, they just can't mount any credible resistance at this point. Moreover in recent days with ammo and food running low dozens began to surrender.

Hamas' leadership and a core of their elite fighters fled to Khan Younis, but it's hardly a favorable place to defend like Gaza City was anticipated to be.

[Hnv1]

There's also the possibility that the complex will be located deeper and it will require some penetrating move to find the entry points. That's pretty much what's happening now as engineers are at the bottom of the Hospital's basement trying to find the entry point, they can detect the space beneath using GPR, but the chutes themselves are a bit trickier.

You might want to wait 48 hours before you decide that it was a massive hoax.

[Hnv1]

This war is helping Russia in Ukraine by diverting attention. I hate this timeline!

Nonsense. Israel and Ukraine have different needs in terms of ordnance, and the stalemate in the front began long before 7/10.

[Hnv1]

IDF tanks around the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza. i.e., Israel moved 2km East over the past 36 hours

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Mind you that every time a hostage deal is said to be "close", it is Netanyahu who got the cold feet, not Hamas.

That's inaccurate. Last time Sinwar got cold feet and disappeared for 24 hours. The problem is Hamas' leadership in Qatar actually has no control of him

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/intelcrab/status/1726284702649315762?s=46&t=B3Vj2WDosJ_v...
Filmed by a special attack dog.

https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1726284025407451613?s=46&t=B3Vj2WDos...
Another one

I think they are now starting to probe this complex. It must have numerous booby traps in the minimum, the worse case is if it’s still manned

[Hnv1]

As I previously said, there is a bunker under Al Shifa Hospital.

Israel knows about it because Israel built it.

Senior Hamas officials in Gaza are hiding out in a "bunker" built by Israel, intelligence officials suspect: Many are believed to be in the basements of the Shifa Hospital complex in Gaza City, which was refurbished during Israel's occupation of the Gaza Strip.

https://www.haaretz.com/2009-01-12/ty-article/sources-hamas-leaders-hiding-in-basement-of-israel-built-hospital-in-gaza/0000017f-f5ba-ddde-abff-fdffb4dd0000

The Israelis are so sure about the location of the Hamas bunker, however, not because they are trying to score propaganda points, or because it has been repeatedly mentioned in passing by Western reporters—but because they built it. Back in 1983, when Israel still ruled Gaza, they built a secure underground operating room and tunnel network beneath Shifa hospital—which is one among several reasons why Israeli security sources are so sure that there is a main Hamas command bunker in or around the large cement basement beneath the area of Building 2 of the Hospital, which reporters are obviously prohibited from entering.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/top-secret-hamas-command-bunker-in-gaza-revealed

I honestly think I took a sh**t once that had a better grasp of reality than you. Ergo, I will not grace these somewhat peculiar claims with a response.

[Hnv1]

Ceasefire to begin within 24 hours, 53 civilian hostages to be released in exchange for 159 female/child Palestinian prisoners, and five days of lull. The ceasefire can be extended by an additional 5 days if Hamas releases 50 more.

I highly doubt the ceasefire will actually last all five days, let alone ten.

[Hnv1]

PBS News Hour

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ly2aADM1dnQ

National Security Advisor Admiral John Kirby talks to PBC News Hour about the grits of the hostage deal.

It was not clear which 50 hostages will be released. Someone also noted that some of the children are not being held by Hamas, so the negotiations with Palestinian Islamic Jihad and private terrorists with no brand are very complicated.

Not everyone is happy in Israel about the hostage swap.


Meir Schijveschuurder (PBS News Hour)

Some Israeli's, including Meir Schijveschuurder, are concerned that 150 Palestinian terrorists will be released straight back onto the streets of Jerusalem in exchange for innocent Israeli's.

Schijveschuurder is a fringe right figure. Part for Otzma there's no party opposing the deal.

I think the deal has problems in the military fine details, but there's absolutely no strong voice against releasing children held there.

[Hnv1]

The first batch of hostages is out for the collective relief of everybody. It was nice to see Emilia Aloni, aged 5 return from a dank tunnel.


I'm not sure the ceasefire won't be permanent. Henceforth begins the pressure of the Arab world on Hamas to accept reality has changed, and Biden to draw a line in the sand with Bibi.

https://twitter.com/gaza_report/status/1728086759626481947?s=20

[Hnv1]

The longer this goes on, the worse this gets for Hamas. I thought the Islamic terrorist saying goodbye to the little boy was incredibly bad PR. It actually illustrates how fake Hamas really is. It shows what Hamas thinks of Westerners who are watching it.

IDF Summary

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0EBRuboRmf/

Israel were amazingly defiant to attack very hard and still get hostages returned, the complete opposite of normal logic.

I really don’t get why they think a child surrounded by 5 figures that look like textbook Muslim terrorists is in any way good press for them.

But then again I’m not part of a death cult that thinks civilian hostages are somehow comparable to underaged youth sitting in prisons for stabbing civilians because “meh fight the oppressor”

[Hnv1]

Look at the "warmth" for groups like Hamas and PIJ:



This was posted on Discord, and while it was posted by someone I trust I can't vouch for his own sources, but if this is even remotely accurate it's yet more evidence for my belief that Israel's conduct of this war has made its (in itself richly justified) stated strategic goal slip even further away. These groups used to be almost as loathed by the Palestinian street as by the Israeli street.

That's indeed from a credible pollster AWRAD, though the sample from Gaza in the middle of the war might be skewed.

https://www.awrad.org/files/server/polls/polls2023/Public%20Opinion%20Poll%20-%20Gaza%20War%202023%20-%20Tables%20of%20Results.pdf

[Hnv1]

So Hamas are claiming the Bibas family is held by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine's Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades, so they can't release them as they demand Israel release Ahmad Sa'adat from prison.



Mind you, the PFLP has less than a thousand supporters in Gaza, whereas Hamas has thousands of men in Khan Younis.

[Hnv1]

No, any conclusion in which Hamas does not surrender unconditionally, and agree to implement the directives of the Israeli government, is unacceptable.

How many times post-World War II has one side agreed to surrender unconditionally? That's not how war works anymore.

Unconditional is a bit misleading, but Artsakh surrendered pretty much unconditionally just two months ago

[Hnv1]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.
https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1730719161972674717

The poll shows Israel with majority support despite two months of non-stop anti-Israel propaganda in every source of media? Seems a lot less disastrous for Israel than it’s being presented as…

Look at the age gap.

US's support for Israel is on borrowed time.

Predicting the future are we? where are all the hundreds of thousands of Western Students that were chanting Ho Chi Min's name in the sixties? did they become hard core communists? or did that fade away when they grew older and got some sense?

[Hnv1]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.
https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1730719161972674717

The poll shows Israel with majority support despite two months of non-stop anti-Israel propaganda in every source of media? Seems a lot less disastrous for Israel than it’s being presented as…

Look at the age gap.

US's support for Israel is on borrowed time.

Predicting the future are we? where are all the hundreds of thousands of Western Students that were chanting Ho Chi Min's name in the sixties? did they become hard core communists? or did that fade away when they grew older and got some sense?

I'm on my phone so I'll elaborate more later, but I'll start off by saying that this is a dumb comparison for a number of reasons. You're comparing a small number of students who were never the majority of anything to poll after poll showing declining support. Unless the settlements and wars stops, I don't see how that changes.

There was a substantial amount of youth in radical organisations in the sixties, and mind you unlike these soy kids they were less afraid to get down and dirty. May 68 faded away, as was the new left.

The only difference is the amount of Muslim immigrants in the west, and they’ll soon find out that the broader electorate isn’t to keen on them marching and chanting intifada

[Hnv1]

Intensive battles over night. IDF cracking down on the remaining Hamas strongholds in Eastern Gaza City and Jabalia. The city will completely fall by Saturday I suppose.

Clashes north of Khan Younis. It seems the goal is to reach the entry points to the tunnel complex Sinwar, Deif, and Issa are hiding in.

[Hnv1]

Israel has set up pumps in Gaza for flooding Hamas tunnels with seawater — WSJ

Israel has readied plans to flood Hamas’s system of tunnels under the Gaza Strip with water pumped from the Mediterranean Sea, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Citing US officials, the report says the Israel Defense Forces last month set up five large water pumps near the al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza City, which are capable of flooding the subterranean network within weeks by pumping thousands of cubic meters of water per hour into the tunnels.

The officials say Israel alerted the US about the plan last month, but has not yet decided on whether to implement it.

According to the report, opinions in Biden administration were mixed, with some officials expressing concern about the Israeli plan while others say they back Israel’s efforts to destroy the tunnels and say there isn’t necessarily any American opposition.

Among the concerns cited in the report were potential damage to Gaza’s aquifer and soil, if seawater and hazardous substances in the tunnels seeps into them.

Interesting. This would probably be the "final solution" to the hamas problem.

I doubt that it will be used as a wide-scale move, and I doubt it will be that efficient. I think it will be used to smoke out the Hamas leadership in the tunnel complex to the west of Khan Younis

[Hnv1]

I doubt if the US or other allies will be happy with a blank cheque for two more months.

Indeed, there is surely going to be pressure for a pause over the Christmas period?

As I see it, Israel will be "coerced" into another pause with a new hostage release deal after it finishes off both Gaza City and KY. Israel will agree behind the scenes. During this pause, the Americans backed the Saudis and Egyptians will lay out some plan for a more prolonged cease-fire. At this point Bibi publicly refuses and calls for a general elections

[Hnv1]

At this point Bibi publicly refuses and calls for a general elections

Am I missing something here? Why in all that is holy would he finally decide to give up his power voluntarily after desperately clinging on to it for so long?

A/ he has no choice. There will be a wide call to go for elections, once the war ends his coalition will dissolve.
B/ Given (A), the best he can hope for is a campaign where he presents Gantz as the person who will create a Palestinian state and himself as the only person who can stop it.

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67% of people aged 18-24 in this Harvard-Harris poll view Jews as oppressors.  Note the wording, Jews and not Israel government or Zionists.

Young people are mostly dumb. More at eleven.

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Salah Al-Arouri, number 2 in Hamas, was assassinated in Beirut by an airstrike an hour ago.


Let the third Lebanon war begin...