UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Hnv1]

Surely by now Charles would reach out and suggest she resigns?

[Hnv1]

I don't buy these forecasts that show Labour with over 500 seats. 

That might be because I've never seen anything like that, so it's beyond my imagination. But still, I don't think Conservatives end up with less then 100 seats.

Naturally, if there's an election, the Tories would pick a new leader beforehand so it won't be so shambolic. the 500 seat estimate is on the unlikely assumption an election was held today with Truss as leader.

[Hnv1]

Sam Allardyce in as caretaker to avoid relegation?

[Hnv1]

First Yorkshire based MP to ever become PM in fact.

Wasn't Wilson a Yorkshireman (no Harry Enfield pun intended)?

[Hnv1]

For the life of me I will never understand why trans issues became so big in the UK in ways unparalleled in any other western country (US college towns are not countries). From Cathleen Stock and the TERF wars to this.

[Hnv1]

That’s a multi billion £ policy that wasn’t on the party manifesto, doesn’t constitutional convention demand it be brought to the public in a general elections?

[Hnv1]

That’s a multi billion £ policy that wasn’t on the party manifesto, doesn’t constitutional convention demand it be brought to the public in a general elections?

No, the convention is the House of Lords doesn't block a manifesto commitment.

But it’s not a manifesto commitment. Boris didn’t run on cancelling HS2

[Hnv1]

Can Sunak survive a leadership challenge? What's the likelihood they finally call for a snap election?

[Hnv1]

It's a bit unorthodox to have one of the holders of the great offices of the state sit in the lords and not the commons though. How's that going to work parliament wise when he can't stand at the dispatch box?

[Hnv1]

David Cameron is in Downing Street.

Surely they’re not sending him to the Lords, right now? FCDO from the Lords?

Big Mandelson 2009 energy

I feel like it's even more bizarre than Mandelson joining the Cabinet. It'd be like if Major appointed Thatcher in 1996. How often does an ex-PM become a Cabinet minister, let alone one that isn't even in the Commons? I don't think I've heard of something like that anywhere in the world, at least not in the Anglosphere.

This is not exactly uncommon in other countries, especially ones with shorter and multi-party governments. The part about not being a member of the legislature is more complicated, especially if you exclude cases like France where ministers are often chosen among legislators but are legally compelled to give up their National Assembly seat while they are in government. Still, a most famous case would be that former Israeli PM Ehud Barak was not an MK when Ehud Olmert appointed him Minister of Defence in 2007.

That was in 2009, and not unheard of in Israel. Netanyahu was Sharon's chancellor, Rabin was Peres' minister of defence, and then Peres was his foreign secretary.

[Hnv1]

Jeremy Quin leaving to focus on his seat means he's unsure he'll win F***ing Horsham

[Hnv1]

Promise I’m not going to post every poll that comes out. But we have some YouGov polling this morning (typically more reliable than FindOutNow and PeoplePolling), which mirrors the decline in Conservative vote we saw in the last two, and showing Reform UK in double digits:
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1725064567418470539
All three polls are post-reshuffle, which suggests (as Blair implied a few pages back), that the Cameron appointment would be met with approval inside the bubble, and indifference or worse elsewhere.

Where are the 3% leaving Labour going? 1% must be going to the Greens, but the rest?

[Hnv1]

23 Tory rebels on the motion, from disparate backgrounds, from One Nation to ERG. Caroline Nokes, Rehman Chishti, Andrea Jenkyns and Damian Green agreeing on a policy - feels vaguely end-of-days.

The government had briefed this out as worth withdrawing the whip over, if the three-line whip was broken. Can't imagine that'll happen, given what it would do to their majority...

There was also 26 Tory rebels opposing the governments introduction of the zero emission vehicle mandate. That one had all the expected names on an issue like that (Braverman, Cash, Cates, Drax, Gullis, Jenkyns, IDS etc).

If whipping is already a bit on the shaky side - what's it going to look like when the emergency legislation on Rwanda is introduced? Amendments from both sides of the party, and grandstanding all around.

Presumably it gets turned into a confidence motion to keep the troops onside?

I can't believe IDS is still an MP. what exactly is he waiting to happen with his political career?

[Hnv1]

I've come up with a proposal for constitutional reform and would appreciate any thoughts.

- 'Britain' a union with a common defence and foreign policy
-- members: England, Wales, Scotland, Cumberland
-- collective head of state; English president serves as first among equals
-- aforementioned defence and foreign policy determined by an elected legislature (seats distributed by nation according to its population)

- England a unitary state
-- except Northumberland (extends to the Forth) which is autonomous

- unicameral English National Assembly
-- no fixed location; tours England
-- STV for boroughs; list PR for shires
-- additionally, temporary co-option by sortition citizens' assembly-style at its stops
--- that a government can then use the location to rig this in its favour is intentional

A. Are you high?
B. you're federal elected legislature will naturally be dominated by rump England

[Hnv1]

On that subject, here's quite a piece from The Sun:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26641310/rishi-sunak-warned-off-may-general-election/

The main points are:

- The 1922 Committee has urged Sunak not to go for May. Does this mean that Sunak is seriously considering it?

- At the same time, a minority is urging him to go for it.

- Sunak has been told that he could be in real danger of a coup after the local elections, something which has been talked about for quite a while.

- But here's the best bit by far:

A senior Tory source said: “Early is for the birds and seven months is a long time in politics. Just imagine what would happen if England won the Euros, Team GB had a hat full of gold at the Olympics — the landscape could be very different.”

Desperation level: hoping England winning an international tournament (in itself a miracle) will save your party politically

[Hnv1]

I’ve resisted writing a… less succinct version of that sentiment on this forum, several times.

The Greens resist the building of solar and wind farms, and deplore nuclear as much as they do oil and gas, possibly more. Can’t shake the sense that there’s no real logic to their plans, it’s all just NIMBYism under hippy window dressing.

And that’s not even addressing their transport policy! No more rail lines, that might be noisy or cut down some nice trees. No electric cars, they need batteries that require heavy metals. Guess we should all stay in our diesel cars and drive to work. Only they also oppose expanding/repairing road infrastructure too… see the A9 debacle.

And that’s before we even get to the whole degrowth thing - imagine being a political party promising permanent recession, and actually winning seats.

Well they win a seat, never in plural

[Hnv1]

Anyone want to build a Northern Megacity?

"Wow, not seen this before. The UK (excluding London) is shockingly poor. Big problems with a mono-polar economy, even across a multinational union.

h/t @john_tomaney on LinkedIn"

Chicago is wealthier than LA? I wouldn't have guessed. I know family and friends who moved to Chicago because places like NY or LA were apparently too expensive. Other midwestern cities were too depressing as well.

The chart is PPP-adjusted, which if I understand things correctly accounts for cost of living. That might explain it.

Anyway, I entirely agree with the point made on the UK. Outside London and the city centers of some Northern cities (central Manchester, Durham, York), the UK is not a wealthy or prosperous nation.

I once had to stop in Preston to change trains (was going from Manchester to Edinburgh) and it was one of the grimmest places I've been to. Newark, New Jersey seems positively vibrant compared to Preston!

That's an improvement. Back in the 90's I did a lot of away days with Spurs and some of the northern towns looked third world to me. Old Ayersome Park or Blackburn were rough for me

[Hnv1]

So if we're seeing an internal shift from the independence yes-no paradigm to a more "who manages Scotland better?" how likely is it Labour takes the lead again? How are the SNP years in power perceived in Scotland?

[Hnv1]

More of a math question than a political one:
At the current rate of by-election losses and defections (nd assuming there will be no general election) at what point in the future will the tories lose their majority? early 2026?

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/thelefttake/status/1789768547486273805

God bless the Tories.

[Hnv1]

The fact that the possibility of Theresa May defecting is even considered possible is quite ludicrous.