Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Hnv1]

In other esoteric news:
MK Yair Golan (former general, constant foot in his mouth, much less pro Palestinian in rhetoric than Meretz) is running for Meretz leadership against Nitzan Horovitz.
Party chairman Eran Hermoni is running for Labor leadership against Merav Michaeli. Seems to be running to absorb Labor into KL. Electing a pale party man would obviously be the death of the party (not that Michaeli's "I'm going to be PM" line isn't threatening the threshold).

Hermoni has no chance.
Golan is well despised by most Meretz members, but the socialist wing (that crowned Horowitz) might crown him to allow a more moderate meretz and appeal to Labour for a merger. Judging by the results of the internal elections there last week it seems the socialists have lost some ground in the party. Unless Zandberg spoils the vote Horowitz is set to win as the lesser evil

Yeah, Hermoni is a lol-tier candidate. I guess his best chance is if turnout is abysmal and only hacks come out, but it's unlikely to be that bad

tbf Michaeli isn't exactly the champion of party democracy and arranged for there to be only 4 ballot boxes across the entire country.

[Hnv1]

In other esoteric news:
MK Yair Golan (former general, constant foot in his mouth, much less pro Palestinian in rhetoric than Meretz) is running for Meretz leadership against Nitzan Horovitz.
Party chairman Eran Hermoni is running for Labor leadership against Merav Michaeli. Seems to be running to absorb Labor into KL. Electing a pale party man would obviously be the death of the party (not that Michaeli's "I'm going to be PM" line isn't threatening the threshold).

Hermoni has no chance.
Golan is well despised by most Meretz members, but the socialist wing (that crowned Horowitz) might crown him to allow a more moderate meretz and appeal to Labour for a merger. Judging by the results of the internal elections there last week it seems the socialists have lost some ground in the party. Unless Zandberg spoils the vote Horowitz is set to win as the lesser evil

Yeah, Hermoni is a lol-tier candidate. I guess his best chance is if turnout is abysmal and only hacks come out, but it's unlikely to be that bad

tbf Michaeli isn't exactly the champion of party democracy and arranged for there to be only 4 ballot boxes across the entire country.

Isn't it possible to vote online? That's what I did in last year's list primaries anyway

I think so. But we both know Hermoni is reliant on older voters. I can't see my aunt taking a taxi to get to Haifa to vote for Hermoni and I can't see her voting online

[Hnv1]

The Bibi bloc has 61 organic seats for the first time in a poll but that’s because both Yamina and Meretz with 2.6% and 2.1% respectively are below the threshold.

The responsible thing to do is for everyone to cannibalise Yamina and pressure Meretz not to run

[Hnv1]

The Bibi bloc has 61 organic seats for the first time in a poll but that’s because both Yamina and Meretz with 2.6% and 2.1% respectively are below the threshold.

The responsible thing to do is for everyone to cannibalise Yamina and pressure Meretz not to run

What would Yamina's electorate be this time around anyway? I mean, it's really hard to see a niche for very right-wing Israeli voters who nonetheless would support allying with the left to keep Bibi out of power.

1. The Givat Shmuel Man:
Mild Orthodox Jew, sends his kids to old Kookist institutions but not too big on the Nationalist Haredi stream of Smotric and Ben Gvir. As a scion of old Mafdal not too big on Likud and their populist base. He prefers a right wing government but he just doesn’t want to vote for any of the Bibi bloc parties.

2. The young libertarian orthodox man:
A small but vocal population online. They’re right wing enough to vote Smotric but they’re super libertarians and want to take down the “Histadrut”. Usually young, educated in STEM, use Mill and Locke to justify repugnant views. They voted Zehut in 2019A and have since drifted. Some voted NH to support Haskel but now Shaked and Kara are the best libertarian game in town.
I’m older than these people but I see them on Twitter and they’re a bunch of grade A morons.

No matter what pundits say there is no third subgroup of Shaked loyalists. Her stock is traded in the media substantially higher than its actual market value among voters.

Neither of these groups are big enough or loyal enough to rely on to get them over the line.
Group 1 is susceptible to move right to Smotric (especially if Ben Gvir runs solo). And some could even vote B&W which functions as a Mapai-Mafdal hybrid.
Group 2 is susceptible to move right to Smotric/Likud if they decide they value their bigotry over their economic Torah. They might also spoil the vote for whatever minor libertarian party runs this time

[Hnv1]

1. The Givat Shmuel Man:
Mild Orthodox Jew, sends his kids to old Kookist institutions

love the term Kookist.

I may be a bit prejudiced about a guy that was apparently the father of religious Zionism, but was Kook a kook?

There were two Kooks, Kook senior and junior. I’m no expert on their theology but it’s a consensus view that the father was more moderate than the son. The son’s political theology is a stronger influence on the extremists.

[Hnv1]

Is there a reason that Yamina couldn't, or wouldn't, run on a joint list with New Hope? (For that matter Labor-Meretz also makes a great deal of sense and has been done in the past, but since the leadership is the same as last time this doesn't seem very likely.)

Saar is committed to a government with no Bibi. Shaked is trying not to rule it out.
I suppose Saar is not too happy about bringing Shaked and her hornets nest of a party in. NH was a cohesive loyal unit where Yamina dissolved as a party. He might recruit Kahane if the merger with B&W won’t happen.

Labour-Meretz is tricky. Everyone in Meretz wants it, most in Labour as well (52% of Labour voters according to a poll from yesterday). But Michaeli is Michaeli.
It seems Meretz are trying to line up their most moderate list so that a merger would be easier to swallow with Raz and Lasky pushed back

[Hnv1]

Is there a reason that Yamina couldn't, or wouldn't, run on a joint list with New Hope? (For that matter Labor-Meretz also makes a great deal of sense and has been done in the past, but since the leadership is the same as last time this doesn't seem very likely.)

Saar is committed to a government with no Bibi. Shaked is trying not to rule it out.
I suppose Saar is not too happy about bringing Shaked and her hornets nest of a party in. NH was a cohesive loyal unit where Yamina dissolved as a party. He might recruit Kahane if the merger with B&W won’t happen.

Labour-Meretz is tricky. Everyone in Meretz wants it, most in Labour as well (52% of Labour voters according to a poll from yesterday). But Michaeli is Michaeli.
It seems Meretz are trying to line up their most moderate list so that a merger would be easier to swallow with Raz and Lasky pushed back

In regards to the center-right it seems like a chess game: Sa'ar likely wants Kahane since he's popular with the centrist anti-Bibi base, but the Haredim view him as a red line and so Gantz, who has fantasies of being PM on the back of Haredi support, probably doesn't want him. So if Sa'ar wants to join Gantz, he can't take Kahana yet. The whole NH-KL merger is generally going to be a bit awkward- Gantz has a lot of populist wannabe-Mapai elements in his party like Schuster and Biton, and trying to mix them in with Haskel is kind of weird. But she has been pretty loyal to Sa'ar so who knows.

With Labor-Meretz I suspect it's not just Michaeli but the Labor MKs- they don't want to get pushed out of the Knesset (since the joint party won't generate enthusiasm and will inevitably end up at 6-7 seats after Lapid is down drinking, leaving space just for Michaeli and max 3 other Labor MKs). I suspect they'll play a game of chicken with Meretz until the listst close- but personally I think it's unlikely Meretz doesn't run. It's an old institutional party, and this brings with it a lot of ego, pride and jobs.

Personally I think the best way to end this constant struggle with Meretz and Labor is to create a new party where everyone runs in an open primary, but that has no chance of happening. At least until we get something like Meretz 0 Labor 4 that truly shatters these parties.

That’s true on both Labour and Meretz, and if the latter had any decency they would just sit this one out and try to understand why so many of their potential voters despise them (disclosure I was a member for over two decades including in the party convention).
As Werter in Haaretz hinted if they do start showing steady over the threshold results in the polls Lapid will encourage YA and Labour to cannibalise on their voters to reduce the spoiled votes to 1-1.5%

The NH-B&W is inorganic and awkward. It made more sense for NH-YB-Yamina join hands. But Lieberman has his own 4D chess going, and Shaked is toxic.

[Hnv1]

Israel's favorite unbiased (far right radical) political journalist, Amit Segal, is reporting that New Hope and Kahol Lavan are close to an agreement for a joint run. They want to sign soon so they can get Eisenkot (former IDF Chief, contemplating joining Yesh Atid or KL) and get better polling vs Lapid.

Apparently it's going to be:
1. Gantz
2. Sa'ar
3. KL
4. KL
5. Shasha-Biton (NH)
6. KL
7. Elkin (NH)

Communication Minister Yoaz Hendel is out. I'm pretty sure it's because Gantz is desperate for the Haredim to like him and Hendel passed a reform that lets Haredi people move their numbers to non kosher phones which made him an enemy of the Haredi establishment, but we also remember the time Hendel prevented Gantz from being PM by coming out against a minority government with outside support from the Joint List. Hard to see Benny Begin or Sharen Haskel joining this weird political body either.

It's:
Gantz
Saar
Tamano Shatta (?)
Truper
Shsha Bitton
Bitton
Elkin

The rest will be on 2:1 basis for B&W.

My take:
Gantz is pushing forward the right wing of his list with Tamanno Shatta (who is quite thick tbf) and Truper. Instead of the new Rabin he's pushing for the new Sharon.
Hendel is out due to personal feuds with Gantz, and Kahane will be out because of the Haredi pipedream. It remains to be seen what will happen with this trio (with Hauser).
I don't think Eisenkot is going to join Gantz. From an acquaintance of his, I learned that he's more to the left and prefers to start his journey in a real party.
It's interesting if Sharen Haskel could join in on this protectionist project. She might be pursued by Yamina\YB.
Speaking of both, Shaked will have to reinvent herself very fast, and Lieberman well he got his guaranteed 5 seats but his brand is starting to get stale.

Gantz is trying to pivot himself to make it a three-horse race. I'm not quite sure it's going to work.
I

[Hnv1]

Israel's favorite unbiased (far right radical) political journalist, Amit Segal, is reporting that New Hope and Kahol Lavan are close to an agreement for a joint run. They want to sign soon so they can get Eisenkot (former IDF Chief, contemplating joining Yesh Atid or KL) and get better polling vs Lapid.

Apparently it's going to be:
1. Gantz
2. Sa'ar
3. KL
4. KL
5. Shasha-Biton (NH)
6. KL
7. Elkin (NH)

Communication Minister Yoaz Hendel is out. I'm pretty sure it's because Gantz is desperate for the Haredim to like him and Hendel passed a reform that lets Haredi people move their numbers to non kosher phones which made him an enemy of the Haredi establishment, but we also remember the time Hendel prevented Gantz from being PM by coming out against a minority government with outside support from the Joint List. Hard to see Benny Begin or Sharen Haskel joining this weird political body either.

It's:
Gantz
Saar
Tamano Shatta (?)
Truper
Shsha Bitton
Bitton
Elkin

He's actually keeping Bitton after the trouble he caused? Lol

You rather have the kid trashing the house from the inside than throwing rocks on the outside.
Those who aspire for a narrow government can’t afford to affront too many people.

I think this union will fail and result in 10 seats. Lapid and Labour are going to gain voters now

[Hnv1]

Gantz Sa'ar union gets just 13 seats in new poll, 15 if Eisenkot joins them. This is a flop- usually parties are at peak enthusiasm after announcement, and decline from there. If he can't even come close to Lapid with Eisenkot included, I wager he'll end up with 8-10 seats in the end.

I anticipated it as soon as I heard it. There simply isn't enough of an electorate that wants this centrist blend and most of it already voted B&W (and didn't vote NH). Moreover, Gantz is hardly inspiring for a lot of voters especially in the center who see him as just another mediocre general.

However, as we learned he might still be able to squeeze himself into Balfour if there's a stalemate

[Hnv1]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

[Hnv1]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

[Hnv1]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

Are there official factiins in Meretz?

Define official? Since 1996 the party is one.
There are a bunch of factions within though and internal affairs are a matter of shifting alliances and agendas

[Hnv1]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

Are there official factiins in Meretz?

Define official? Since 1996 the party is one.
There are a bunch of factions within though and internal affairs are a matter of shifting alliances and agendas

As in have names, their own meetings, and are known by party members outside their circle I guess. Like when you say "the reds," it's more of a milieu than anything else, right?

The reds actually are semi-organized, run their own social media, and have their own logo etc. They began as the provisional camp for MK Ilan Gilon but since grew to a more official faction.

The rest of the groups are more provisional factions around specific people or causes. they usually go by informal names, the greens, the purples, the blues, the yellows and such. 

[Hnv1]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

Are there official factiins in Meretz?

Define official? Since 1996 the party is one.
There are a bunch of factions within though and internal affairs are a matter of shifting alliances and agendas

As in have names, their own meetings, and are known by party members outside their circle I guess. Like when you say "the reds," it's more of a milieu than anything else, right?

The reds actually are semi-organized, run their own social media, and have their own logo etc. They began as the provisional camp for MK Ilan Gilon but since grew to a more official faction.

The rest of the groups are more provisional factions around specific people or causes. they usually go by informal names, the greens, the purples, the blues, the yellows and such.  

I would personally find it interesting if you gave a whole run down but understand i may be the only one there!

Well coincidently MK Zandberg just announced she will stand down, so that's the end of the purples...

I'll start with a little background because the wiki entries sometimes fail to give thick descriptions of how things are:
Starting from the late 70s there was a revival in the left with new radical (to varying degrees) formations springing about. New left voters didn't find themselves in the old workers' parties. Shulamit Aloni, perhaps by chance, perhaps by virtue, managed to consolidate them under Ratz (a small insignificant left-liberal party she formed in the 70s after Meir pushed her out of Labour).
The coalition government of 84 lent some momentum with the leftists of Labour (Sarid) abandoning ship and joining (and Mapam leaving the Alignment).

The first Intifada and ideological collapse of socialism made three odd parties aligned in their daily policy: radical Ratz (that achieved a handsome achievement of 5 seats in 88); classical liberal Shinoi, and stale Marxist Mapam. With the Palestinian issue, the only thing on the agenda all three agreed to join parliamentary factions in 1990 under the title "Democratic Israel". In 1992 Mapam, in virtual insolvency financially and spiritually had to decide whether they carry on this project or merge into Labour. Old Yaakov Hazan said Labour, Oron and Vilan said no and they won. Meretz was a thing and a great success winning 12 seats.
Mapam meanwhile broke down and had to sell its assets and close the old party newspaper. With the end of history hanging over the socialist fumes were all but extinguished and in 1996 Mapam party convention decided in a 75% majority on an official merger 'with Ratz and Shinoi (capitalist Shinoi left in 1999 to be offered to Lapid senior).
Meretz started with the main camps: the Shula and Yossi factions aligned according to their position on the Palestinian issue. The Mapam people, always more to the right on this issue, supported Sarid and helped him oust Aloni. However, underneath there was still a small part of Mapam people that wanted to push back the socialist agenda. Young MK Gilon was one, and by the late early 00s, he became their leader.
His agenda was that the Palestinian issue isn't really something Meretz can contribute to and what is needed is a workers' party. He worked especially hard with the youth branch feeling they were the future.

Many left the party in the days following the hostile takeover by Beilin. some to the left, more to the right. In 2009 Oron beat Cohen (Cohen was in fact more socialist than Oron) and did his own attempt to revive Meretz. The failure was massive. Oron quickly resigned and there wasn't much of a part anymore. Those days membership grew so small the party convention elected in 2012 was actually not elected outside Tel Aviv and Jerusalem there weren't enough members to fill the delegates slots!


Gilon and Galon remained the only game in town. One is a bit of a caricature of an old socialist, the other an unpopular (with the general public) feminist. Galon managed to beat Gilon and he never forgave her.
2013 also saw Zandberg, the first representative of the new younger generation take to the floor.

Although 2013 was an electoral success the party from within was actually dead. Gilon took over the youth divisions and then steadily over the other party institutes. Galon couldn't get her supporters to join as members, and Zandberg started to form her own camp. Since then Meretz acted less then as a party and more like an alliance of micro-parties.

Gilon's camp became known as the Reds. They wanted to change course to become a popular workers' party.
Zandberg formed the Purples, a ragtag coalition of the younger candidates that had no ties to the other groups. they were educated and cared more about environmental and social issues. A lot of them were elected officials on the municipal level
the anti-occupation camp that steadily drifted to post-Zionism came to be centered around MK Raz.
Galon gathered some of the old Ratz mob and the feminists.
Freg had the small Arab membership in his pocket (the yellows).
Horowitz in fact had no faction. He tried to start one called The Blues but found out the gay voters preferred the Diva Zehava to him.

Since 2019 it became quite chaotic with each MK having a small group around him and the different factions joining and breaking alliances quite fast.

Now anyone who's not red is Green symbolizing his wish for Meretz to remain distinct from Labour.

The reds include: the Kibbutz voters, the young socialist division Gilon formed, graduates of some of the blue youth movements
The greens include all the rest: feminists, human rights activists, environmentalists, etc.

Now that the purples are disbanding it would be interesting the see who'd they support. Zandberg was reddish but some of her allies were far from it. I think they will unite around Galon and try to push Zandberg's husband - Uri Zaki - to the top of the list.

[Hnv1]

By Blue youth movements, you mean Habo, and Hashomer Hatzair, right? (Because they wear blue shirts?)

The three that correlated to the party lines on 48

The NOAL identified with Mapai - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HaNoar_HaOved_VeHaLomed
Hashomer Hatzair identified with Mapam - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hashomer_Hatzair
HaMahanot HaOlim identified with Unity of Labour - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HaMahanot_HaOlim

They have different political active graduate movements; some form urban Kibbutz, and some run co-ops. Most identify with Labour but some support Meretz

Habonim are active outside of Israel same as Hashomer's international branch

[Hnv1]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

Well even the reds support Galon.

really speaks volumes about Golan when everyone hates him.

In other news, all of Labour MKs endorse Michaeli.

Eisenkot is heading to B&W. poor choice by him

Some internal strife in Likud over the way they'll pick the slots on the list allocated to regional Likud branches

[Hnv1]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

Well even the reds support Galon.

really speaks volumes about Golan when everyone hates him.

In other news, all of Labour MKs endorse Michaeli.

Eisenkot is heading to B&W. poor choice by him

Some internal strife in Likud over the way they'll pick the slots on the list allocated to regional Likud branches

What's your read on how Meretz's list will look like?
Gotta say, a list consisting of Galon, Rozin and Horovitz at the top will look more appealing for a merger with Labor.

It's hard to tell as the candidate list isn't closed yet, and it's an open primary but if I have to bet, it's going to be:
1. Galon
2. Horowitz (consolation prize)
3. Rozin (gender equality bump)
4. Zlalha, so there's a pseudo-Arab candidate
5. Bihovsky (some young nobody the reds are pushing)

The big groups want Raz and Lasky pushed back as they are toxic for crawling to Labour's lap.

In other news, after Golan realized the Reds made the unprecedented and historical decision to support Gal'on said that it's a stale party that does everything to keep its people in paying jobs. I'll wage that after he inevitably finishes 10th, he'll resign and join Eli Avidar in some pointless anti-Bibi party. Kudos to Meretz for showing that even they have some standards and the dumb ex-general isn't wanted by anyone

[Hnv1]

Michaeli wins the leadership vote 82-16
First Labour leader to survive a leadership primaries since Peres in 89

[Hnv1]

Derech Eretz (Minister Yoaz Hendel and MK Michael Hauser) running with Yamina and got the 2nd and 4th spots on the list. I'm assuming it'll look like:

1. Shaked
2. Hendel
3. Desperate Yamina MK who didn't find a better party
4. Hauser
5. Even more esperate Yamina MK who didn't find a better party

I can't see a scenario where they pass the threshold.

Edit: the party's going to get a new name- "Zionist Spirit" (I wonder when they'll run out of right wing sounding names). Apparently Shaked wants go bring a religious zionist figure - possibly Yossi Brudani, a long time Mayor nominated by the Jewish Home of old to lead their list. If so, assuming he gets place #3, that leaves Yamina members out of the top 4.

It’s beautiful how everyone left and right rejoice at seeing her fall. Vermin that she is

This party will fail miserably. I think Kahane will join YA and Kara will find himself elsewhere. The rest can start filling unemployment claims

[Hnv1]

What will happend if the result is

Ruling bloc < Netanyahu bloc

but

Ruling bloc + Joint List > Netanyahu bloc

One or more of:
1/ Gantz will try and fail to push for some government where he is first and Bibi second
2/ Bibi will push hard to find 2 MKs to support his government
3/ ruling bloc will try to offer the world to 1-4 fringe MKs in Likud to move them sides
4/ someone from Likud will float the suggestion that he will form a government instead of Bibi

All of 1-4 will lead to:
5. An election scheduled for March 2023.

Some think 5 might happen with
6. Bibi moving aside and seeking a plea bargain

But I think that’s ridiculous as he knows that as long as he’s in the game and wreaks havoc his trial prolongs further.

[Hnv1]

What will happend if the result is

Ruling bloc < Netanyahu bloc

but

Ruling bloc + Joint List > Netanyahu bloc

One or more of:
1/ Gantz will try and fail to push for some government where he is first and Bibi second
2/ Bibi will push hard to find 2 MKs to support his government
3/ ruling bloc will try to offer the world to 1-4 fringe MKs in Likud to move them sides
4/ someone from Likud will float the suggestion that he will form a government instead of Bibi

All of 1-4 will lead to:
5. An election scheduled for March 2023.

Some think 5 might happen with
6. Bibi moving aside and seeking a plea bargain

But I think that’s ridiculous as he knows that as long as he’s in the game and wreaks havoc his trial prolongs further.

why "zionist spirit" (if seats) couldn't support a Bibi gov ?

They could. But there’s more chance of me getting 3.25% of the vote than these buffoons. Plus I already counted with the Bibi bloc in this question

[Hnv1]

The point of following a soap opera is that it's fun and lighthearted in spirit. Since the one named Israeli politics has only been depressing over the last couple of years, I've kind of lost track. And so I have some questions:

1. Why is Bennett not continuing his career in politics?
2. Please remind me: why aren't Lapid and Gantz on the same team anymore?
3. What is most likely to happen in the event where the Bibi bloc doesn't win a majority? Another election? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
4. How are Bibi's court cases (?) progressing? Kind of crazy that it's all taking so long.

1. Running with Yamina risked the threshold and a massive embarrassment for him plus another constitutional crisis with the PM out of parliament. Running in any other formation would mean he would be second at best which is hamulating for the PM. By all accounts we have records that his family hated every minute of limelight
2. Gantz thinks Lapid backstabbed him on I don't know what. He also thinks he's more fit for leadership than Lapid. Lapid doesn't want to have disloyal people on his party list.
3. I answered this above. In the unlikely event the Lapid bloc gets more seats than the Bibi bloc with the Joint List I think we'll have another election as well.
4. still in the evidence phase of the preliminary stage

[Hnv1]

Upcoming August primaries timeline to determine the list:

9th: Labour
10th: Likud
23rd: Religious Zionism, but only the Smotrich part of the list, the result will probably be combined with Jewish Strength (Ben Gvir) and Noam (but judging from previous elections, they will probably wait until the last possible moment to come to an agreement). The date to register with the party has just passed, and there will be 24,113 potential voters.

The deadline to submit lists is 1 September.

Meretz will have a leadership and list primaries both on the 28th.

Hadash, Ra'am, and Balad all have primaries in August but I can't seem to find credible information about when.

[Hnv1]

So, any recommendations on who I should vote for in the Labor list primary?
My current list:
100% sure: MKs Ibtisam Maraana and Gilad Kariv, anti corruption activist Tomer Avital
Maybe: MKs Naama Lazimi and Efrat Rayten, former Tel Aviv City Councillors Maharte Baruch and Maya Nuri, left-religious activist Yaya Fink
Absolutely not: journalist Yair Tarchitsky

For: Maraana, Lazimi, Nuri.
Agnostic: Kariv, Ryten.
Absolutely not: Shefa, Avital, Maharte.

Maharte is one disloyal opportunist. It will be a bad call letting her in. Lazimi had been a great council member in Haifa and a good MK, despite some differences I think she's worthy of a spot. Avital is an absolute empty shell of a person and he shouldn't be a legislature. And Shefa is nothing but a lobbyist of rich farmers and Kibbutzniks