Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Hnv1]

Solid Bibi win.

Maybe, but the Arab sector is on fire right now. They'll probably get to at least 55% and perhaps even higher, which would likely get Balad across. No way the right wins if all three Arab parties are over the threshold.

Or they might all fall under the threshold but above 3%

Voting in right wing strongholds also on the rise…

[Hnv1]

As I said during the day this is heading to a very solid Bibi win. 68 seats majority.
Thanks Michaeli for not merging lists with Meretz. Great call…

[Hnv1]

I’ll go out on a limb:
Herzog will push for a wide government in exchange for pardon now

[Hnv1]

How my precinct voted:
YA 44.17%
Meretz 14.32% (wife)
Statist 12.62% (brother-in-law)
Likud 9.95%
Labour 9.47% (sister)
YB 4.85%
RZ-NSDAP 1.46%
Hadash-Ta'al 1.21% (me)
Shas 0.97%
Balad 0.49%
Anti-vax 0.24%
Zalicha 0.24%

[Hnv1]

3.43M votes counted
Likud: 23.77%
Yesh Atid: 17.44%
RZP: 10.78%
Shas: 8.94%
National unity: 8.88%
UTJ: 6.80%
Beitenu: 4.38%
Ra'am: 3.86%
Labour: 3.48%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.05%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.17%

Bunch of Southern Arab vote came in strong, putting Ra'am above threshold. There's still some ~80k uncounted votes left in Tel Aviv that will probably save Meretz.

Is Balad still in this?

Longshot. They'll need 4% of the double envelopes by my math. Meretz would need 3.5%

[Hnv1]

3.43M votes counted
Likud: 23.77%
Yesh Atid: 17.44%
RZP: 10.78%
Shas: 8.94%
National unity: 8.88%
UTJ: 6.80%
Beitenu: 4.38%
Ra'am: 3.86%
Labour: 3.48%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.05%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.17%

Bunch of Southern Arab vote came in strong, putting Ra'am above threshold. There's still some ~80k uncounted votes left in Tel Aviv that will probably save Meretz.

Is Balad still in this?

Longshot. They'll need 4% of the double envelopes by my math. Meretz would need 3.5%

So does Bibi have it in the bag?

I can't see him with less than 62-3, even if Meretz passes the threshold. The question is how big the majority will be.
So yeah. he has it in the bag.

[Hnv1]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

Still votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa left. Meretz will pull above just barely

[Hnv1]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

Still votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa left. Meretz will pull above just barely

What's still out for Balad?

Marginal votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa. small chunks in remote Arab villages. a fraction of the double envelopes.

They're out. sorry

[Hnv1]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

Still votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa left. Meretz will pull above just barely

What's still out for Balad?

Marginal votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa. small chunks in remote Arab villages. a fraction of the double envelopes.

They're out. sorry

Is there a chance Meretz still falls short?

yes, but getting slimmer. It's going to break 0.05% on either side

[Hnv1]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

Still votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa left. Meretz will pull above just barely

What's still out for Balad?

Marginal votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa. small chunks in remote Arab villages. a fraction of the double envelopes.

They're out. sorry

Is there a chance Meretz still falls short?

yes, but getting slimmer. It's going to break 0.05% on either side

Who exactly are the swing voters who swung the election towards Bibi?

The threshold got him from 58 to 62-3

The only bloc shift were Yamina voters who moved to RZ/Likud

[Hnv1]

Votes they need by the end of the count to pass the threshold:
Labour 13-14K
Meretz 27-28K
Balad 34-35K

From around 700K left

[Hnv1]

Lapid preparing to concede once the votes are counted. Outside of something really wild, it's over.

Has very little practical meaning in Israeli politics.

Lapid also has a lot of blame for the situation. Not as much as Michaeli and Odeh, but quite a lot.

A 65-seat coalition will be an absolute calamity, and I'm not sure it will fall all that fast. Henceforth no one in the right-wing bloc has an incentive to see another election cycle   

[Hnv1]

So basically, even if Meretz get the 3.85% of the double envelopes they require, Bibi would have 62-3 seats. I assume the coalition talks would go quite fast, although Herzog will try to float some sort of unity government.

The opposition needs to realign to prepare themselves for the coming battle. YA and B&W need to merge into a big-tent centrist party. Michaeli needs to be shown the door, and the new leader of Labour to invite most of Meretz to a new SD party (Galon also has to resign).
The Arab parties need to decide what they want to do as political entities. But I don't think there's any viable alternative bar for creating one big list again.

Afterward, we need to build a ground game. Parliamentary and street action to combat the government. Protests, strikes, and counteractions.

[Hnv1]

Net votes change 2022
Likud 23.24% (-0.95%!!)
YA 17.92% (+3.99%)
RZ 10.32% (5.2%)
Statist 8.92% (-2.45%) [with NH]
Shas 8.40% (+1.23%)
UTJ 6.20% (+0.57%)
YB 4.33% (-1.3%)
Ra'am 4.33% (+0.54%)
Hadash-Ta'al+Balad 3.91%+3.04% (+2.13%)
Labour 3.57% (-2.52%)
Meretz 3.2% (-1.39%)

Likud lost 1% but gained 1-2 seats

[Hnv1]

So basically, even if Meretz get the 3.85% of the double envelopes they require, Bibi would have 62-3 seats. I assume the coalition talks would go quite fast, although Herzog will try to float some sort of unity government.

The opposition needs to realign to prepare themselves for the coming battle. YA and B&W need to merge into a big-tent centrist party. Michaeli needs to be shown the door, and the new leader of Labour to invite most of Meretz to a new SD party (Galon also has to resign).
The Arab parties need to decide what they want to do as political entities. But I don't think there's any viable alternative bar for creating one big list again.

Afterward, we need to build a ground game. Parliamentary and street action to combat the government. Protests, strikes, and counteractions.

Will there be a sixth election soon if things fall apart for Bibi or will this be the last for a while?

I believe this government will hold for at least 2 years

[Hnv1]

So basically, even if Meretz get the 3.85% of the double envelopes they require, Bibi would have 62-3 seats. I assume the coalition talks would go quite fast, although Herzog will try to float some sort of unity government.

The opposition needs to realign to prepare themselves for the coming battle. YA and B&W need to merge into a big-tent centrist party. Michaeli needs to be shown the door, and the new leader of Labour to invite most of Meretz to a new SD party (Galon also has to resign).
The Arab parties need to decide what they want to do as political entities. But I don't think there's any viable alternative bar for creating one big list again.

Afterward, we need to build a ground game. Parliamentary and street action to combat the government. Protests, strikes, and counteractions.

Will there be a sixth election soon if things fall apart for Bibi or will this be the last for a while?

I believe this government will hold for at least 2 years

So what exactly went wrong for the anti-Bibi camp?

In the election? poorly organized, spread out over too many parties, with very little enthusiasm.
In government? Yamina was a very poor faction Bennett had very little influence over. Had he picked more loyal men, the project could have endured quite longer.


Worth noting that when you deduct all the nonsense parties, the pro-Bibi bloc got 50.05% while the anti-Bibi bloc got 49.95%. The threshold gave Bibi the win

[Hnv1]

They need around 3.9% of the double envelopes. I won't put their chances above 1/4

[Hnv1]

Is all hope lost?

I lost hope at 16:00 on Election Day

[Hnv1]

There is maybe a case for 2.5%, mostly eliminating total "joke" parties but enabling all non-negligible elements of the electorate to get some representation.

I think a better idea - especially given Israel's peculiar social geography - would be to have all MKs elected from multi-seat geographical constituencies. You have both a somewhat more stable (in theory...) Knesset and something close to guaranteed representation (without need for pacts or tactical voting ploys) for most non-negligible elements in the most Kaleidoscopic of societies. Would also encourage stronger party structures and make it possible for the odd independent to get in if there's a particular local issue here or there, neither of which would be bad things. Not that it'll happen.

One particular issue in Israel is the political need to keep the voting system accessible to illiterate voters (like in India, albeit for different reasons there). The only country I can think of offhand with substantial illiteracy and an electoral system where voters don't just pick one option is Papua New Guinea, and it doesn't seem like that works very well.

Which population in Israel is illiterate?

Recent immigrants.

Do you just mean that they don't read Hebrew? Or that they are actually illiterate in their native language?

The former: the crucial limitation here is the inability to read a ballot in Hebrew (or Arabic). In theory this could be overcome by providing ballots in a range of languages, but the method chosen is to designate parties with letters (in much the same way that parties have symbols in India) to make choosing easier.

This is a nonissue. The only segment of the voting population that has difficulty with voting as Russian pensioners. And YB usually sends them in with the ballot.

Back in the fifties and sixties, when an actual substantial amount of voters had very poor Hebrew they had no problems with PR systems and it was floated several times.

The German system fits Israel well. I'd be happy for 120 to be chosen on the national list with another 120 voted in districts but with an overall balance based on the popular vote

[Hnv1]

4.39M votes counted

Likud: 23.40%
Yesh Atid: 17.87%
RZP: 10.40%
National unity: 8.93%
Shas: 8.36%
UTJ: 6.07%
YB: 4.38%
Ra'am: 4.29%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.95%
Labour: 3.55%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.17%
Balad: 3.02%
JH: 1.17%


Rumors that the next vote dump will see Meretz drop further to 3.15%. I think we can call it and return to the general discussion board to discuss the formation of the new government and leave this thread for results only
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=527986.0

[Hnv1]

4.465M votes counted

Likud: 23.45%
Yesh Atid: 17.86%
RZP: 10.55%
National unity: 9%
Shas: 8.31%
UTJ: 6.01%
YB: 4.38%
Ra'am: 4.22%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.87%
Labour: 3.58%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.15%
Balad: 2.97%
JH: 1.18%


It seems like it's mainly IDF votes counted atm. strong tilt to the right and RZ are gaining ground. No doubt it's the Ben Gvir effect

[Hnv1]

4.578M votes counted

Likud: 23.47%
Yesh Atid: 17.82%
RZP: 10.69%
National unity: 9.04%
Shas: 8.29%
UTJ: 5.97%
YB: 4.42%
Ra'am: 4.15%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.82%
Labour: 3.61%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.14%
Balad: 2.93%
JH: 1.18%


It's basically finished. Meretz won't pull back from this.

Current seats allocation:
Likud 31
YA 24
RZ 15
Statist 12
Shas 11
UTJ 7
YB 6
Ra'am
Hadash 5
Labour 4 (lol)


Less women. only one Druze (by my count). RZ are going to split into three factions before the coalition talks begin. Bibi might opt to leave Avi Maoz and NOAM out if their demands would be too ridiculous

[Hnv1]

Nearly complete, no significant changes expected

4.740M votes counted

Likud: 23.41%
Yesh Atid: 17.79%
RZP: 10.81%
National unity: 9.07%
Shas: 8.25%
UTJ: 5.90%
YB: 4.47%
Ra'am: 4.09%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.76%
Labour: 3.68%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.16%
Balad: 2.90%
JH: 1.19%
----1% financing threshold----
Economic Liberty: 0.33%
Anti-vax: 0.31%
Yaron Zalicha: 0.29%

And then a lot of nobodies, with the exception of MK Eli Avidar, who got 1139 votes.


Current seat allocation:
Likud 31
YA 24
RZ 14
Statist 12
Shas 11
UTJ 8
YB 6
Ra'am 5
Hadash 5
Labour 4

Bibi bloc: 64
rag tag opposition: 56

See you all in the general discussions thread

[Hnv1]

Is it really meaningful to speak of an anti-Bibi “bloc” that includes Lieberman and Gideon Sa’ar on the one end and Hadash and Balad on the other? Sure, they’re all anti-Bibi but they don’t represent any coherent alternative government.

By bloc, we mean a block, literally. The anti-Bibi bloc is the sum of parties that were willing to block a Bibi government at all costs, not an alternative government.

[Hnv1]

Meretz got more votes than Labour in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and most Kibbutz. Labour managed to somehow survive by being slightly more appealing to young voters who aren't from traditional left strongholds. They gave Labour the 15K that saw them over the threshold.
As a matter of fact, it was far closer for Labour than it seem.