Predict Bevin's margin of victory

[Fuzzy Bear]

5-10%, but it may be lower. 

I do think Bevin will win, somehow.  He's not Ernie Fletcher.

[Fuzzy Bear]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/440654-poll-kentuckys-matt-bevin-now-the-most-unpopular-governor-in-us

Bevin's down 19 in approval rating, and that's never good.

McConnell would like to sink Bevin; he hasn't forgotten Bevin's primary challenge.  Cocaine Mitch is capable of sinking Bevin's campaign without appearing to do so.  His absence from Bevin's re-election campaign will be fhe first sign.

[Fuzzy Bear]

7% at best, more like 3-5%. Bevin is less competent/popular than McConnell, Kentucky is more Democratic-friendly in gubernatorial elections than in federal races, it’s an off-year election and not a presidential year, etc.

This.  He is not doing himself any favors at all.  He will probably eek it out on the strong Republican fundamentals of KY in the Trump era, but there's a real possibility he loses.

Worth noting though that KY governor is basically a figurehead role when the opposition party has meaningful majorities in both houses of the legislature.  It's a simple majority veto override state.   

The bolded part; how did THAT happen?

I'm quoting an old The Almanac of American Politics.  "There is no question as to who sits atop Kentucky's political structure; the Governor."  Kentucky's Governors have long been considered the leaders of Kentucky's political factions.  The Governor was the unquestioned leader of his political party, with vast patronage powers.  How was this undone over the years?

[Fuzzy Bear]

2) Kentucky's hatred for Democrats increases exponentially every year. They hate Democrats even more in 2019 than they did in 2016. I don't know why you all obsess over winning deep red states. They hate all Democrats. They hate you. They hate me. They hate Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or whoever else you like politically. They despise the Democratic Party and everything it stands for. GET OVER IT! The "WWC #populist " obsessed Atlas posters are like the jilted ex that still obsesses over and begs their ex to give them another chance, even though their ex hates them with every fiber of their being and wants absolutely nothing to do with them ever again.

I've never felt stronger about any post on this site.

There are some things that bear noting:

1.  Kentucky is still a relatively unionized state (although much of it is the United Mine Workers).

2.  Kentucky has had a history of counties staying true to Civil War Democratic roots.  This includes counties going for McGovern in 1972; counties that did not have particularly high concentrations of black voters.

3.  Kentucky has elected a Democratic Governor as recently as 2011 and has OUSTED a Republican Governor as recently as 2007.

I would not expect Kentucky to carry for the national Democratic ticket, but I would not be shocked if they elected a Democratic Governor in 2019.