2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[dspNY]

Right now elections project says 59.1 million voted.  But there are definitely states where the numbers are delayed and I wonder how many ballots are currently in the mail and not yet received.  I wonder if more like 70 million people have already voted.  The time is really dwindling for Trump to turn around his poll numbers.  He's basically hoping the polls are massively off at this point.

Couvillon puts the number at 61.4 million. I don't know why he is so much ahead of McDonald.

It's more than that because New York State is not making its numbers available (NYC is I believe but not the whole state). California also has hundreds of thousands of ballots in the mail that are yet to be received per day due to their sheer size. I'd guess the count is more like 63-64 million ATM

[dspNY]

Any guess on what total turnout will be in Florida? In 2016 we had 9.5M and we now have almost 7.3M with four days of early voting left

[dspNY]

Any guess on what total turnout will be in Florida? In 2016 we had 9.5M and we now have almost 7.3M with four days of early voting left

Around 10.5-11 million.

OK so that means as of now, 66-69% of the state has already voted and we still have 4 days of early voting remaining. It could mean over 80% of the state will vote by the end of the early voting period

[dspNY]

Democrats are at 61.3% turnout in Florida. Tomorrow is the last day for the GOP to vote.

Why does the GOP have less days to vote?

It's obviously not true that the Republicans have only one more day to vote.

I think he means the smaller, mostly Republican counties in FL have one more day of early voting (Saturday), and the larger, mostly Democratic and bluish-purple counties in FL keep their polls open on the final Sunday before the election. He's saying the Republicans have one more day to chip into the Democratic early vote lead, then the Democratic lead will get larger on the final Sunday (souls to the polls) and Monday (more Democrats mail in their ballots)

[dspNY]

For all the talk about cannibalization in Florida the Republicans still have something like twice as many super voters left to vote as the Democrats (~300k vs ~150k). If anything its the STTP that's been cannibalized by mail in votes and reduced church attendance.

If Democrats bring their lead back up to around 120k in time for election day then the Democratic lean of the independent early voters could give Biden the edge, but otherwise Trump is in the drivers seat in Florida. But for the millionth time, Florida is lean Trump under normal conditions and he'll still probably lose even if he wins it.

There is also one last day of counting ballots (tomorrow). Those will only be mail ballots and that's expected to be a much lower number than the early voting in person + VBM. The Democrats could expand the lead by a small amount tomorrow

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323008551124684800?s=21
Dems finishing the day better than R’s.  

Yeah, Dems will probably net a small handful of votes today after Miami-Dade reports.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1185521506

Democrats are already winning the day because of the mail ballots that are being reported.

 They're up nearly 5k today, it's not going to be a huge gain. They'll probably pickup votes by Party ID again tomorrow. I expected a lot more mail to end the weekend and it has not materialized.

Much more mail tomorrow and on Tuesday you'd think