Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[DC Al Fine]

A number of churches, some on reserves, have been vandalized or burned. This, during a record-shattering heat wave. Anyone who lives on the land knows how incredibly dangerous this is, and anyone who lives on the reserve knows that many band members actually use the churches. I won't be surprised one bit if it turns out the arsonists aren't even from the band or aren't even indigenous.

The Prime Minister and other politicians should denounce these acts, and announce the government will rebuild the structures if the band approves.

They should condemn the arson but maybe not talk about rebuilding them right away. It would be a little tone deaf to the discourse in Canada right now.

Ignoring the question of whether the State should provide restitution to victims of crimes it did not commit, suppose we grant that premise: Talking about reconciliation with First Nations in general, while turning around and saying that a particular group of First Nations hate crime victims ought not to be restored feels rather shallow and cheap.

I wonder how reconciled the First Nations parishoners of those churches would feel if they had to do without their place of worship, just so some white politicians didn't have to be perceived as "tone deaf"?

[DC Al Fine]

That's fair enough, I can't say I know much about how actual First Nations people feel about this beyond what I've read in the media (more often than not, there tends to be quite a diversity of opinions) so I could be wrong about the tone deaf part.

From my personal experience, I know that many indigenous people are very attached to Christianity, and the Church is an integral part of their lives when they're on the reserve. It's when they move to cities, that they often try to connect to the church, that the institutional church (with some notable exceptions) struggles to reach out to them.

The media isn't listening to these people, and it's almost as if indigenous people are worth listening to only if they validate pre-existing beliefs, and otherwise they should keep quiet and know their place. It's the same racism, with only the prevailing ideology of the white saviours being different.

On another note, Catholic churches in western Canada are increasingly dominated by immigrants from the Philippines, the Middle East, Latin America, India, and other such places. In Ontario, it's less so, but only because there are plenty more "European ethnic Catholics". The same goes with newly ordained clergy. Attacks on the church will be seen as attacks on these racial minority groups. That's where (and this is the same in the other English-speaking settler countries) the woke, white left become their own worst enemies. They claim to be fighting for racial minority groups, who instead feel patronized and alienated, which causes the woke, white left to ridicule them, because they genuinely can't understand why anyone would hold "backward" beliefs.

In Canada, this will probably result in the probable next Liberal leader, who herself is a practicing Catholic, quietly shifting the party away from Trudeau's wokeness. The Conservatives could make progress with this demographic, but will struggle as long as it's associated with nasty types.

Freeland's a practicing Catholic? Interesting.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/BenWoodfinden/status/1412467645111230467

The recent string of church burnings now includes an attempted arson with people inside. That could have gotten very ugly very quickly.

[DC Al Fine]

Leger finding quite a different (but still mediocre for the Tories) result from the horrible polling the Tories have been getting lately.

[DC Al Fine]

Polls like the Leger one could be advantageous for the Liberals. The closer voters perceive the race to be, the more ABC voting happens.

Absolutely and may help the Tories in Prairies too although much overall in sense that those further to right if Liberals have big lead may feel more comfortable voting PPC or Maverick party knowing Liberals are going to win anyways.  Whereas if close those supporting PPC and Maverick party likely come over to Tories to stop a Liberal win.  Obviously that has less impact than strategic voting on left, but there is that.  PPC was polling much higher than 1.6% it got and I think only because close a lot at last minute switched to Conservatives whereas if lead of either was more solid, PPC probably would have gotten closer to 4% mark.  And with O'Toole being more moderate, that could be even more devastating as if Tories stay where they are, I think you might see more further right feel its okay to vote Maverick or PPC thus pushing Tories into low 20s (combined right still 28-30%).

Side note: I wish pollsters would prompt for Maverick out west. If Western seperatists can poll 20% provincially in Alberta, we should probably be asking about them federally too.

[DC Al Fine]

Residential schools trutherism/denialism is setting in on the Christian far right, probably surprising nobody. I'm not going to link to it but there's a pretty wed and wild American Conservative piece explicitly arguing that the mass graves are good, actually (as in it uses the phrase "good, actually").

Gave that a read. Quite disturbing. Was amazed at the chutzpah.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah. That's like winning another four majority governments back to back. If Trudeau's still PM in 2032, I'll start seriously asking the question.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/NEWS957/status/1413479246509400074

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting weird article by the Hill Times (paywalled so I could only go off the bit I could see) that seems to be suggesting a return of Stephen Harper.

Okay, it's an opinion piece and probably one based on very flimsy evidence, it's not gonna happen realistically. But boy, that would be the craziest thing to happen in Canadian politics in a long time.

The piece is by Mike Harris (journalist, not the Ontario Premier). More than a little wish fulfillment there. Poor guy is lost without being able to write an anti-Harper editorial every week.

Harris will be working the "Harper lurks" corner until the day he dies. Even if Harper goes first.

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting weird article by the Hill Times (paywalled so I could only go off the bit I could see) that seems to be suggesting a return of Stephen Harper.

Okay, it's an opinion piece and probably one based on very flimsy evidence, it's not gonna happen realistically. But boy, that would be the craziest thing to happen in Canadian politics in a long time.

The piece is by Mike Harris (journalist, not the Ontario Premier). More than a little wish fulfillment there. Poor guy is lost without being able to write an anti-Harper editorial every week.

Harris will be working the "Harper lurks" corner until the day he dies. Even if Harper goes first.

Wasn't really aware of his Harper-obsession so it's probably that. But honestly, would Harper coming back even hurt the CPC? He'd probably unite the right much better than O'Toole has

People tend to like the idea of these old leaders coming back more than the actual Leaders.

Hmm, why stop at Harper? Jean Chretien, 87, vs Brian Mulroney, 82, would make for one hell of an election.

Tory leader Joe Clark part 3, electric boogaloo

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting weird article by the Hill Times (paywalled so I could only go off the bit I could see) that seems to be suggesting a return of Stephen Harper.

Okay, it's an opinion piece and probably one based on very flimsy evidence, it's not gonna happen realistically. But boy, that would be the craziest thing to happen in Canadian politics in a long time.

The piece is by Mike Harris (journalist, not the Ontario Premier). More than a little wish fulfillment there. Poor guy is lost without being able to write an anti-Harper editorial every week.

Harris will be working the "Harper lurks" corner until the day he dies. Even if Harper goes first.

Wasn't really aware of his Harper-obsession so it's probably that. But honestly, would Harper coming back even hurt the CPC? He'd probably unite the right much better than O'Toole has

People tend to like the idea of these old leaders coming back more than the actual Leaders.

Agreed. The other side of this is it's the summer, there's nothing going on, and rank speculation makes better copy than the correct analysis which is:

a) O'Toole is unlikely to be replaced before the next election (which is likely to be called before we'd have time to do a leadership race anyway)

b) If he's replaced before the election, the new leader would almost certainly be one of a handful of MP's that everyone already knows.

c) If he's replaced after the election, there's a chance at a surprise winner, but it would almost certainly be someone with minimal name recognition today, not Stephen Harper.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Because the Conservative Party of Canada is unbelievably awful. They combine the worst aspects of politics - they've got the bumbling incompetence that Trudeau displayed in his first term, they've got the standoffish and nasty nature Harper displayed in his last term, and ultimately they seem like an empty vessel that rarely puts forward half-decent policy ideas.

They've alienated a huge chunk of their accessible voters, both centrists and right wingers. They can't compete with the Liberals on policy ideas (in part because Trudeau can run around funding LRT projects and O'Toole can't). They don't seem competent when O'Toole can't seem to keep his party singing to the same tune, and his provincial Conservative counterparts haven't been doing very well.

Seriously, if you're not a CPC loyalist, or someone who wants Trudeau to go above all else, why should you vote for the Conservative Party?

As somebody on the center left (a liberal but not a Liberal) I obviously agree with this, but the problem is we're not really the voters that the Conservative Party is targeting or has been part of their base for 17+ years.  So, this is our view, but is it the view of those voters?

I mean, I'm one of the more right wing Liberals so I could concievably vote Conservative, but it would require the Liberals to really screw up, so yeah not exactly an accessible vote.

To put a slightly different spin on Frank's take. Did you seriously consider voting for the Ford-Tories in 2018?

There's ~6-7% of the vote in Ontario that was willing to vote for a right wing populist leader in Ontario, recently enough that demographic churn wouldn't be an issue, that didn't vote Conservative or PPC in 2019. Those are the voters the Tories need to win back*, and whose vote decision process we really need to consider in the "what's compelling about the Tories" question.

*More or less, obviously the Fords are always going to have a different appeal in Toronto than the federal Tories.

[DC Al Fine]

I have to dispute the "Ford Nation" and the "stop the NDP" explanations a bit.

The Tories consistently led the Ontario polls for years, mostly at or above 40% for years, under a succession of leaders, with the NDP competing for the top spot, and the wheels falling off for the Liberals being relatively late events.

To put a slightly different spin on Frank's take. Did you seriously consider voting for the Ford-Tories in 2018?

I did not. Caveat being that my views have changed since then, and I lived in Ottawa Centre which is purely NDP vs Liberal. I ended up voting Liberal.

Would 2021 Laddicus Finch have voted PC? With hindsight, no, I'm not a fan of the Ford government and still a Liberal member who is locally active. Without hindsight? I would have considered it. Never been a fan of the Fords, but I might have seen the PCs as a decent, moderate alternative to an increasingly tired and underperforming Liberal government.

I'm probably not the kind of moderate that O'Toole or Ford would go for, however. I'm not culturally conservative at all, more temperamentally and fiscally. I might have been the type of person who voted for Harper's CPC in 2008/2011, but I wasn't old enough to vote then.

Thank you for the clarification.

[DC Al Fine]

When do I get my "Maritime Alienation" thinkpieces?

[DC Al Fine]

On a totally different note:



I was looking through some Quebec election results (see 2014 above) and noticed that something puzzling.

The Chaudière-Appalaches region is one of the few parts of Quebec that the Tories do well in. I would expect that ADQ/CAQ to win it as well. However the Liberals seem to have had surprising strength here until CAQ's majority win. Anyone know why?

[DC Al Fine]

Don't think this has been mentioned here yet:

NS Premier Iain Rankin disclosed two DUI incidents from 2003 and 2005 after a reporter began investigating it. This puts a damper on election speculation in Nova Scotia (which does not have fixed election dates), although the consensus is that Rankin will still call an election this summer or early fall.

Also, I can't believe I never noticed this, but Iain Rankin is the son of former longtime Halifax councilor Reg Rankin, who also had some alcohol related run-ins with the law, but more amusingly, was known in Halifax political circles for drunk dialing civil servants in the middle of the night to discuss constituent issues. Quite the colourful guy.

[DC Al Fine]

Are there any Anglophone areas that are really demographically similar to Vancouver Island?

How do you mean? There are Anglo areas with a similar racial/age/income breakdown as Vancouver Island, but I can't name any other old, white, rural, and middle-to-low income area that votes so far to the left.

That's the answer I was looking for.

Isn't Brighton rather old, and fond of the Greens?

[DC Al Fine]

Former chief of the defence staff Jonathan Vance has been charged with obstruction of justice, related to the ongoing investigation of his alleged sexual misconduct

Good. I live in a military town, and people are really salty about the hypocrisy of the brass pushing Operation Honour while ignoring their own rampant sexual misconduct.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/jamespmcleod/status/1417855005818826758

[DC Al Fine]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

A good Joe Clark retread would be a young, moderate, and relatively obscure politician. This makes it hard to predict but if we're throwing out names, maybe Eric Duncan? He's pretty obscure (only really known for being openly gay which could be a huge asset in shedding the bigot image), he's in his 30s, and a moderate on social issues.

If we're keeping with the Joe Clark theme, how colossally bad is he at managing crucial confidence votes?

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/NatTelegraph/status/1419755882938732544

Sloan's new outfit to-be makes three right wing breakaway parties

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/glen_mcgregor/status/1426337403418066945

Nanos has the Tories back at 28% up from 23%. It appears that string of poor Tory polling in Nanos polls was an aberration and they are back around where other pollsters have them

Good thing we didn't overreact to those results and speculate about the death of the Tories. That would've been silly

[DC Al Fine]

Tory MP Marilyn Gladu is forming a "civil liberties caucus" to discuss defending antivax constituents who lost their jobs and claims it might have 30+ members soon. She denies it is an O'Toole challenge. One MP wonders if unvaxxed colleagues might be expelled if they make a scene when Parliament reconvenes. The caucus is divided in thirds between pro, anti and neutral-EOT members.

In Montreal, Valérie Plante looks set to comfortably win her rematch with Denis Coderre in Sunday's municipal election.

Seriously it seems like some Conservatives enjoy losing.  You have to be totally tone deaf politically to think this is a winning issue.  Most are tired of pandering to anti-vaxxers.  This looks bad on O'Toole as his moderation won't do any good if he cannot control the fringe elements of the party.  And to win they need to be booted out.  Yes with reform act, tough to do alone, but he can get started on it and also promise not to sign their nomination papers.

If Gladu actually has 30 MP's like she claims, that would form a caucus bigger than the NDP. Even if its half that, it's still a large enough bloc to get recognition in the House for themselves or the PPC. Recall that it only took a dozen MP's leaving/being kicked out to force Stockwell Day to hold a leadership election.

I'm not so sure hardball is the best response for O'Toole if Gladu actually has numbers (a big if). It could very well lead to his ouster.

[DC Al Fine]

Tl;dr I would once again like to remind everyone that Erin O'Toole has another party on his right flank.

[DC Al Fine]

Gary Burrill has resigned as leader of the Nova Scotia NDP after this summer's lacklustre result.

In terms of leadership contenders, just about everyone on caucus could plausibly be the new leader.