British Columbia provincial election 2013

[DC Al Fine]

This is in less than a month, May 14.

CBC vote compass: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bcvotes2013/features/votecompass/

So NDP & Green are exactly the same, with the Liberals/Tories only separated by social issues.

[DC Al Fine]

Just took it.

They have the NDP and the Greens at virtually the same place... makes you wonder what the point of the Greens are there. At least in Ontario they are right wing.

I got: 77% NDP, 75% Green, 57% Lib, 32% Cons

The Greens are right wing in ON? They are pretty much non-existent here.

[DC Al Fine]

Looks like an NDP win, unless they muck it up somehow, some real questions:
- Will the Greens or Conservatives win any seats?
- How bad will the Liberals lose?

1) Doubtful at this point, although either of them could do better than 20% in a riding or 2.
2) Was going to be Campbellesque when the Tories were polling even with the Liberals. Now I'd just say it'll be a normal landslide.

[DC Al Fine]

Greens @ 22% on Vancouver Island. Will that translate into seats?

[DC Al Fine]

So, what's the relationship between the BC Liberals and the federal Liberals? I don't think I quite 'get' it.

Basically none. Provincial parties have varying degrees of closeness to their federal counterparts. BC Liberals are on the extreme side of no contact.

[DC Al Fine]

So, what's the relationship between the BC Liberals and the federal Liberals? I don't think I quite 'get' it.

Basically none. Provincial parties have varying degrees of closeness to their federal counterparts. BC Liberals are on the extreme side of no contact.

To the point where if Justin Trudeau lived in BC, he'd vote NDP provincially?

That's a tough one to answer. Canada has 3 different provincial political contexts (Western Canada, English Eastern Canada, and Quebec) and it can be somewhat difficult to figure out where someone from one context would vote in another. It's a bit like guessing where individual SNP politicians would wind up if the SNP didn't exist. You can make an educated guess, but its not foolproof.

Both BC NDP and BC Liberals have found homes in the federal Liberal party. Roughly speaking, the right wing of the party would vote BC Liberal and the left would vote NDP. The Trudeaus are perceived as being on the left of their party, so Justin would probably vote NDP in BC.

[DC Al Fine]

So, what's the relationship between the BC Liberals and the federal Liberals? I don't think I quite 'get' it.

Basically none. Provincial parties have varying degrees of closeness to their federal counterparts. BC Liberals are on the extreme side of no contact.

To the point where if Justin Trudeau lived in BC, he'd vote NDP provincially?

That's a tough one to answer. Canada has 3 different provincial political contexts (Western Canada, English Eastern Canada, and Quebec) and it can be somewhat difficult to figure out where someone from one context would vote in another. It's a bit like guessing where individual SNP politicians would wind up if the SNP didn't exist. You can make an educated guess, but its not foolproof.

OK, I thught Ontario and the Maritimes were sufficiently different to be considered different systems.

Is there a clear break between Ontario and Manitoba or is Manitoba politics somewhat transitional between Eastern and Western?

My conservatism's showing now. My division of Canada is based off of Mulroney's winning coalition (Eastern Tories, Western populists and Quebec nationalists). Separating the Maritimes and Ontario is legitimate.

Provincially speaking, there is a clear break between Manitoba and Ontario. Ontario has 3 established parties that have all won elections in the past 30 years (and all 3 have led polls in the last year or so). Manitoba on the other hand is effectively a two party system, with the NDP & Tories garnering upwards of 90% of the vote between them.

[DC Al Fine]

What's everyone's guess as to how many seats the Tories will screw the Liberals out of? Off the top of my head, I'd guess 15-20.

[DC Al Fine]

Won't the cabinet resignation trigger an even worse downfall to the Liberals?

Yes and no. It won't have an effect on the big picture, but individual cabinet ministers will have better shots at retaining their seats than Joe Candidate.

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories got 20% in Boundary-Similkameen in 09. Any chance at a pickup?

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories got 20% in Boundary-Similkameen in 09. Any chance at a pickup?

Seems unlikely. They're too far behind the NDP there. Also remember that the BC Cons only ran in 24 ridings last time, so their increase from 2% to 10% will be smaller in the ridings they actually contested last time.

On a related note: Are the Greens and/or Cons contesting all seats this time?

There's still time to file, both parties still need to fill 20+ spots. I imagine both parties will come close, but they'll still have a few riding s without candidates in areas where they are very weak.

[DC Al Fine]

Dippers dump their Kelowna-Mission candidate for posting racist remarks about Aboriginals online.

Against Aboriginals and Francophones.

She refused to withdraw and will run as an independant.

I imagine the Grits will retain the seat.

[DC Al Fine]

Tend to agree with the Tory candidate (about the media avoiding the downside of single motherhood... seriously doubt that many women do the single mommy thing via a sperm bank), but damn what a stupid thing for someone with political aspirations to say.

[DC Al Fine]

Is it just me, or is the CBC blatantly supporting the NDP?

How is this even news: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bcvotes2013/story/2013/04/30/bc-vote-compass-dix-wins-debate.html

A lot of their news seems to be pro-NDP. Not that I'm complaining to loudly of course, but it is a strange feeling, since I'm used to them loving the Liberals (but I suppose the NDP is the 'liberal' party in this race)

Insert rant about left wing media bias here.

[DC Al Fine]

Read more closely. The insights poll shows the NDP with a 41-33 lead among decideds. (12% for the Greens, 11% for the Tories)

Lwr Mainland:
NDP: 41
Lib: 35
Grn: 12
Cons: 11

Van Island:
NDP: 43
Lib: 28
Grn: 20
Cons: 8

Rest:
NDP: 40
Lib: 33
Cons: 14
Grn: 11

Greens @ 20% in Vancouver Island? They must win a seat or two then.

[DC Al Fine]

Have the boundaries been changed since the 2009 election?

No

[DC Al Fine]

CBC and National Post, here. Livestream won't start till 10:30 Eastern, polls close at 11.

Ugh, sometimes it sucks living on the East Coast. Off to bed for me then.

[DC Al Fine]

So, for those who really don't follow Canada, can anyone give a brief history of bad polling in Canada?  From reading this thread, it doesn't seem like there was the slightest reason to expect anything like this.  And despite an apparent history of bad polling, the posters here, who seem quite knowledgeable and  follow this day in day out, seemed to take the polls as as gospel, which given their consistency seemed reasonable except....

Canadian voters are much more "swingy"

[DC Al Fine]

So by-election for Clark or will she step down?

[DC Al Fine]

So by-election for Clark or will she step down?

By-election, obviously. She pulled off a miracle and certainly deserves it. Like Charest, she should've chosen discretion over valour and run somewhere safer even if away from home (is VPG even her home base?). Some people suggested a heavy break of undecideds to the Grits.

Her home base is Port Moody, which isn't much better than VPG. Still, I'm surprised she didn't give  an MLA from some place like Kelowna so she could have a safe seat. She's going to have to now anyways.

[DC Al Fine]

All the Canadian pollster's with all their staff should be taken out and shot.

One should be symbolically pardoned.

I hope you are referring to me

He certainly wasn't referring to Forum.

[DC Al Fine]

Finally, Clark didn't even came close. She lost by 785 votes.
Analysts on Frecnh TV takled of where she could ran if she lost. They all agreed it must be a safe seat in Vancouver area (most likely suburbs). They were mostly targeting North Vancouver and West Vancouver (the cities, not the parts of Vancouver) (Ralph Sultan? He will turn 80 in June, but it would sent a bad message to old people and he is an intellectual heavyweight with a couple of doctorate, teacher in Harvard and a leadership position at Royal Bank).

How about one of the Richmond seats? Reasonably close, safe, and I'm sure someone would be willing to be made a judge or something.

[DC Al Fine]

If we take all elections results since 2009 (to include all provinces):

June 9, 2009, Nova Scotia: Polls were on (PC government defeated, 3rd position)
September 27, 2010, New Brunswick: Incumbent Liberals overestimated by around 3% in polls
May 2, 2011, Canada: Incumbent Conservatives underestimated by 4%
October 3, 2011, Prince Edward Island: Incumbent PC underestimated by 4%
October 4, 2011, Manitoba: Polls were on
October 6, 2001, Ontario: Polls were on
October 11, 2011, Newfoundland and Labrador: Polls were on
October 11, 2011, Yukon, Incumbent YP underestimated by 6%, but it's perhaps just bad polling.
November 7, 2011, Saskatchewan: Polls were on
April 23, 2012, Alberta: Incumbent PC underestimated by 8%
September 4, 2012, Quebec: Incumbent Liberals underestimated by 4%
May 14, 2013, British Columbia: Incumbent Liberals underestimated by 8%. 

Generally incumbents underpoll and over deliver.

[DC Al Fine]

Here is a novel idea.  If will actually improve the image of the NDP if someone from NDP stepped aside and with NDP support Clark for MLA.  This way NDP can show that they are a constructive opposition and Clark will have to represent a population of more or less pro-NDP views.  Other than tjhe salary there is less of a point of being a MLA in opposition than in the majority. 

How about just no? The base would be terribly upset.

NDP has a GOTV problem. Obviously the solution is to piss off their most die hard voters.

[DC Al Fine]

Here is a novel idea.  If will actually improve the image of the NDP if someone from NDP stepped aside and with NDP support Clark for MLA.  This way NDP can show that they are a constructive opposition and Clark will have to represent a population of more or less pro-NDP views.  Other than tjhe salary there is less of a point of being a MLA in opposition than in the majority. 

Like Vancouver - Point Grey?

I've read only one or two comparisons in the papers to Harry Truman's upset but it is an apt one - not just the polls being wrong, but an aggressive, balls-out campaign beating a timid one.
Both cases saw the frontrunners so concerned about saying something that would alienate swing voters that they bored everyone silly and gave their supporters no reason to come out for them. "We'll be different . . . kind of . . . sort of . . . maybe . . " doesn't get you very far.
The Keating campaign, which also saw him not only win but increase his majority in spite of bad polls, makes a good comparison too, as does John Major's upset a year earlier. Something the NDP can take heart in - from all three cases - is what happened next time: voters had been ready for a change but went back to the incumbents at the last minute - however, the demand for something different became so strong that the opposition won smashing victories all three times (and stayed in power for quite a while afterwards). The Liberals got themselves an extra term, but I have a sneaking suspicion that in four years they're going to be a very small opposition for a very long time.

It is definitely possible to win one time too many... Compare also NSW in 2007, Queensland in 2009, it's possible the last SA election will fall into the same category (having lost the popular vote, but retained government), but obviously that depends on the results of the next election.

Eh, VPG is more of a slight Liberal lean.