Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[jaymichaud]

Joint List has put big flashy billboards in Yiddish in Bnei Barak ("Your voice against forced enlistment') and in Amharic in Petah Tikvah ("Your voice against police harrassment"). I'm pretty sure these are more about getting the votes of ex-Meretz voters than Chassidish or Ethiopian voters, but I'm interested to know what the Israeli posters here think of it. Have y'all noticed an increased interest in the Joint List among Jewish  folks? Do you think this multi-lingual campaigning will pay off short term (more votes) or long term (building a base, expanding Hadash's reach?)...

No. They (we?) have their own parties to act in their interests.

[jaymichaud]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

Lol Arab48?

[jaymichaud]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

Lol Arab48?

Arabs are far less obsessed with the occupation than Jews want them to be. The reason the Joint List did so well in September was that they recalibrated their campaign around pocketbook issues, building permits and sectoral development, and curbing violence. That resonates with Arab voters, who frankly think  failing schools and unsafe streets are a bigger problem than geopolitical dumpster fires like the conflict. Bibi has always recognized this and has invested resources accordingly. He won't get a lot of Arab votes, but even stealing a single mandate away is a big deal.

Yeah, that's the only Arab-Israeli news site I knew of lol.

[jaymichaud]

Channel 13 out with a new poll in which Likud leads by a single mandate. Labor-Meretz is eating into Blue and White right now. So the blocs aren't really shifting, but left wing voters are leaving Gantz for smaller parties. I wonder how much panic Blue and White is feeling right now. They are dropping like a rock, but to their allies on the left. So it makes it even MORE likely that the only path to power is a leftist government with Arab and Liberman support. Hilariously, that's precisely what Gantz and friends have tried so hard to avoid.

The real question remains turnout, of course. One major pollster sees the Arab turnout very close to September's election, which was good but not explosive. The Jewish vote dropped in September. If the Jewish vote drops again the Joint List could get 15 seats if the Arab sector really makes a show of political power and shows up. Depending on where turnout among Jews drops most that could dramatically alter the math for Blue and White, even if they finish behind Likud in terms of mandates.

Not particularly 'leftist' but I can see a B&W/Labor-Gesher/Meretz/YB coalition with Hadash/Ta'al/Ra'am as confidence and supply.

[jaymichaud]

Why would YB trigger a new election and join a joint ticket when they could just pick a side? Surely the point at which the time they stop being able to campaign alone is the time they become clearly associated with one side or the other?

If he goes back to the right it would basically kill his career, considering he was predicted to fail to meet the threshold in tons of polls before the whole 'unity government' campaign.

[jaymichaud]

The AIPAC discussion at tonight's debate just reminded me that the conference is happening from March 1-3. That's a rather awkward timing. I mean, Pence, McConnell, and MacCarthy are speaking alongside the usual Jewish democrats and presidential candidates.

Imagine if all the Republicans go to bed with Bibi as PM and giving speeches in favor of his policies, and then Gantz+ ends up with 61? That would leave everyone stranding...

I mean the Republican Party and Likud are both members of the IDU so it’s natural that they’d prefer them leading the country.

[jaymichaud]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

I know Shas are on the edge of the seat because as long as there's no government the Yeshiva budget is being autmoatically reduce. but I don't see how these two propositions add up? unless some Ashkenazi forms a government?

* of course this sort of government is possible if B&W+LMG+Yb>Right Bloc which is unlikely.

Meretz can’t sit with Shas as they are unable to compromise on religion and state issues. It’s basically their priority as a party.

[jaymichaud]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

I know Shas are on the edge of the seat because as long as there's no government the Yeshiva budget is being autmoatically reduce. but I don't see how these two propositions add up? unless some Ashkenazi forms a government?

* of course this sort of government is possible if B&W+LMG+Yb>Right Bloc which is unlikely.

Meretz can’t sit with Shas as they are unable to compromise on religion and state issues. It’s basically their priority as a party.

LOL. You obviously hadn’t met a genuine Meretz activists for years. They’ll seat with Shas no problem whatsoever

Lol Shulamit Aloni’s party? Seriously?

[jaymichaud]

After voting Balad, then JL, I think I'm going to vote B&W this time (of strict utilitarian grounds). I may be the only Balad-B&W voter out there.

Please tell me the Balad vote was a protest vote or something

[jaymichaud]

Right on cue:

https://mobile.twitter.com/gantzbe/status/1233073970662039555

To be fair they’ve always been very supportive of gay rights so I wouldn’t particularly say it’s pandering. Timing is definitely calculated though.

What are Likud’s stance on LGBT issues? I can’t find anything other than “they have gay members”

[jaymichaud]

Hmm I'd probably still vote for B&W as a tactical vote. But yes I'm predicting a repeat of September-November.

I hate the term but Likud are straight up gaslighting the entire country. Pretending that they want to put a stop to the nonsense while willingly prolonging it to save their own backs. I'll disrespect anyone who happily votes for them at this point.

[jaymichaud]

A few things:

- Peretz is pressing for a B&W, Labor-Gesher, Meretz minority government with YB and Joint List as confidence and supply.
- Lieberman disapproves of this, saying that he wants to actually be part of a coalition and is willing to do this with any party that isn't Joint List, UTJ or Shas.
- Lieberman says Likud will not annex the Jordan Valley and Netanyahu told King Abdullah this.
- Odeh is hoping for 16 seats. Only priority is getting Likud out of power.

[jaymichaud]

Opening a betting category: which parties run a "we could be erased!" gevalt campaign tomorrow?

My bet: Labour-Gesher-Meretz will find a way, and Yamina as well. I'd actually say that Lieberman is more at risk than either, but gevalt campaigns aren't his style.

Not in the way you described it but Yamina, 100%.

Imagine if they got like 6 seats or something?

[jaymichaud]

My final prediction:

Blue and White - 34
Likud - 33
Joint List - 14
Labor-Gesher-Meretz - 10
Shas - 9
UTJ - 7
Yisrael Beiteinu - 7
Yamina - 6

B&W Led Bloc - 58
Likud Led Bloc - 54
YB - 7

[jaymichaud]

So a recording came out of a known Rabbi promising Netanyahu to get dirt on Gantz out of the aforementioned advisor. Additionally, what SHOULD be the Israeli Watergate came out recently- a cyber company created right before the April election paid for spying on Gantz to get dirt of him, with the mediator being an attorney close to Netanyahu and others close to the PM involved.

It could hamper Likud's momentum right before election, but then again, it could change nothing too.

Likud voters don’t give two tosses on that, they know Bibi is a liar and a crook and that’s why they like him. They think this is part of the reasons is a diplomatic mastermind and whatever. You’re looking for decency where there is none

25% of Likud voters are Saar supporters who don't support Bibi. They are usually socially liberal, younger Ashkenazi voters. They could go three ways. They could stay home because they won't leave the Likud but they won'y support Bibi. They could vote for Bibi because, hey, it's better than the Arabs. Or they could actually cross over and suppoet Gantz. I don't think the last option is likely, because those voters hqve already crossed over by now. But if this keeps a single mandate worth of soft Likud voters from bothering to vote--and it might--that's a big deal.

They could have crossed over to Lieberman if he'd kept up the "#NeverBibi Right" shtick but he didn't so *shrug*

[jaymichaud]

So if Bibi is out of 10 Balfour what happens to B&W? Do the three parties split or join other alliances?

[jaymichaud]

I see tons of people voting for KL on my instagram stories but I think that may be because of who I’m following (young guys from Tel Aviv/Haifa/Nesher etc)

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/oryxmaps/status/1234519350192766976?s=21

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/Gil_Hoffman/status/1234533721799196672

Gevelt as usual.

They said this last time I’m sure

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/netanyahu/status/1234530075221118978?s=21

Well...

[jaymichaud]

Lol wait... you guys are taking the words of the corrupt and compulsive lying Likud as gospel? Mess.

[jaymichaud]

So still no majority.

[jaymichaud]

60-60... lmfao meme country

[jaymichaud]

36 seats.... lmfao how can people be so stupid

You've dug yourselves in a deep one Likudniks

[jaymichaud]

How does Bibi still win after being in power so long and with all the corruption?  Honest question about what makes him unbeatable.

Excellent economy, better international relations than ever, less of a security threat by neighbors and militant Palestinians than perhaps ever. I'd have voted Likud in this one.

Do you expect those things to last when they're proposing very large changes with very big/serious results?