Danish Elections and Politics

[Diouf]

Broad agreement on agricultural climate package



Tonight, the government concluded a deal on the reduction of emissions in the agricultural sector with the Liberals, DPP, SPP, Social Liberals, Red-Green Alliance, Conservatives, New Right, Liberal Alliance and the Christian Democrats. This means that only the furthest left on climate, the Alternative, is not a part of the deal. The topline goal in the deal is a reduction of carbon emissions from the agricultural sector betweeen 55-65% in 2030 compared to 1990. The parties have agreed to add 3.8 billion DKK in funding to carry through the initiatives in the deal. A significant part of the EU CAP funds will also be used to green initiatives. The funds are mainly spent on converting farmland to nature areas via afforestation and wetland creation. Additionally, there will be spent significant funds on developing new technology to reduce emissions, f.ex. in relation to fertilizer and feed. There are also funds to encourage a change to organic farming as well as the development and promotion of plant-based food.

The deal also puts forward the way for Denmark to reduce nitrogen emissions in order to fulfill the EU water framework directive. In this regard, there are concrete goals for the emissions but the farmers can choose the initiatives. If they don't make enough initiatives, government regulation will force them to via concrete rules in 2024.

Quite surprised by NB supporting this. What is their position on climate/agriculture issues?

Liberals, Conservatives, DPP, Liberal Alliance and New Right had made a common policy proposal on this area. So in that way, the five parties could speak with a common voice in the negotiations and, unless any of the parties betrayed the alliance, they would either all five be a part of the deal or none of them. And the Social Democrats really didn't want to make a too aggressive law, based only on the wishes of the other Red Bloc parties.

Vermund's blog on the deal is here: https://nyeborgerlige.dk/blog/pernilles-blog/landbrugsaftale-som-landbruget-kan-leve-med/

The main argument for being in the deal is that in allows Danish farmers to make the transition towards less emissions in a mainly voluntary way (as long as they reach emission targets). She said that "If the stage had been left to the Red Bloc, 15.000 jobs would have left the country, so our food would be produced in Poland and Ukraine in lower quality and with a bigger enviromental footprint than in Denmark".

Generally, they want to take measures against climate change, but less fast than most other parties. Only them and Liberal Alliance were not a part of the majority which agreed the overall Danish 70% reduction goal in 2030. So on some of the climate deals trying to reach that goal, they haven't been a part either, e.g. on waste separation and the building of the two big windmill islands.

[Diouf]

DPP will have an extraordinary congress on 23. January with the purpose of electing a new leader.
Candidates will have to announce before 8. January.

This date means that the congress is before the end of Morten Messerschmidt's case at the High Court. I don't think you can rule out that he runs anyway, but it will make things somewhat more difficult for him. Many DPPers hope that Inger Støjberg will join the party and run for leader. This would probably give the calmest leadership election as I think a large majority in the party would support her, whether she is sentenced in the impeachment case or not. However, it's still unclear what she wants to do. I think her dream would be to be acquitted, and re-enter the Liberals in a triumphant return. But I doubt she would be allowed to do this, and so the question is whether she stays as an independent, forms her own party or seeks to join another party. We haven't really seen any indication yet.

One shouldn't rule out the chance of a Jussi Halla-aho scenario, probably with Martin Henriksen in the role as the radical challenger who wins, and which causes many in the establishment to leave the party. Perhaps too many of the more radical members have joined New Right for Henriksen to win, but the last congress showed that he certainly still has a big chunk of support. The question is whether the existence of the New Right also means that Henriksen's strategy would have less chances of success in Denmark vs the progress Halla-aho made.

Other possible candidates could be MEP Peter Kofod or financial spokesperson Rene Christensen. Some have speculated that Pia Kjærsgaard could come in as a short-term leader before handing the reins on (most likely to Messerschmidt), but to me it's one of the less likely scenarios.

[Diouf]

The proceedings in the impeachment case are now over. We will get the verdict from the judges on 13 December. If we are lucky, I guess we might get the verdict televised, but otherwise the whole charade has not been televised. So we could end up with one of the most popular/divisive/prominent politicians in the country getting a sentence of four months unconditional prison (what the prosecution wants) in a case initiated by parliament, and no voters will have been able to see a second of the way the case played out. It is only filtered out through the lenses of the journalists, who of course aren't exactly Støjberg-friendly.

There are 26 judges. 13 of them appointed by the political parties and 13 are Supreme Court justices. Since the political judges are very likely to be divided, and the Supreme Court justices very likely to be united, the case if of course de facto decided by the latter.

From most likely to least likely to find Støjberg guilty, I will put:
1 judge from Red-Green Alliance
1 judge from Social Liberals
1 judge from the SPP
13 judges from the Supreme Court
4 judges from the Social Democrats
4 judges from the Liberals
1 judge from the Conservatives
1 judge from DPP

The political judges were appointed before Støjberg left the party, so it's not just some Ellemann loyalists send there to sentence her for the Liberals. I think the Social Democrats will follow the Supreme Court judges either way, which would make the eventual victory for either side fairly clear. We don't get the votes of the individual jury members either because openness is apparently anathema in such a case.
As I've said, I think they will sentence her. My guess will be a 20-6 split in favour of a guilty sentence.

[Diouf]

Morten Messerschmidt is running as leader of DPP in a bid with MEP Peter Kofod as deputy. The extraordinary congress in DPP is on 23 January, while Messerschmidt's EU fraud case is expected to take place in the High Court from 20 December to 24 February. The schedule could change if Messerschmidt's appeal to annul the Lower Court sentence is granted due to the expressed bias of the Lower Court judge who had liked Messerschmidt-critical posts on Facebook. Then the Lower Court case would have to run again.
Running with Kofod means that the latter can run the party if Messerschmidt gets a sentence which prevents him from doing it effectively.
However, both also say that if Inger Støjberg is willing to join DPP and run as leader, they will both withdraw their candidatures.

Among their political goals, they said they want referendums on the European Convention on Human Rights as well as one on EU membership. Also they say the party should do its utmost to join a government where there is a centre-right majority (Thulelsen Dahl was often criticized for not joining the government after the brilliant 2015 election).

[Diouf]

Agreements on wind energy expansion and more housing



Today, the goverment, SPP, Social Liberals, Red-Green Alliance, Alternative and Christian Democrats announced a deal to increase the Danish wind energy capacity. Until 2030, wind energy production worth an extra 2 gigawatt energy will be established on sea. The parties also agreed to invest 200 mio DKK yearly in research on CO2 capture. The deal also includes the establishment of two natural parks in marine areas in Øresund and Little Belt as well as an additional 100 mio DKK for green development aid. With this deal, the projected Danish CO2 reduction in 2030 (compared to 1990) is 57,9%. The legally binding goal, as set in 2019, is 70%.

Some days ago, another deal was presented by the Government, DPP, SPP, Red-Green Alliance and the Christian Democrats. This deal focuses on housing, and sets off 5 billion DKK between 2022-2031 to increase the housing supply. Almost 2 billions of those funds are investment support for the non-profit housing associations. The funds can be used to purchase land that would otherwise be to expensive for the non-profit housing associations (which owns a significant part of Danish apartment buildings). Then 675 mio DKK will be spend to transform business buildings into apartments in non-profit housing, and 800 mio DKK to purchase existing private housing and turn it into non-profit housing. The parties agree to invest into building more student apartments, particularly in Copenhagen + will try to increase housing in the controversial Christiania part of Copenhagen (which I'm certain the exisiting inhabitants will end up getting stopped again). Finally, the deal invests further in research on how to build housing in the greenest way.

[Diouf]

DPP rebel re-elected to executive committee with strong support

The ex-MP Martin Henriksen was re-elected to the party's executive committee with strong support despite his recent public attacks on the moderate wing in the party. His public attacks drew criticism from most of the DPP leadership.
Henriksen received support from 272 delegates among the 636 voting at the party congress, so had support from 42,7% of the delegates. The DPP executive committee consists of 11 members, the 5 members of the parliamentary leadership, 5 members elected on the party congress and the leader of DPP Youth. 3 of the 5 members were up for election on this year's congress. Up for re-election was Martin Henriksen and his even more radical supporter Erik Høgh-Sørensen + ex-MEP Anders Vistisen from the moderate wing. Each of the 636 delegates could vote for two candidates.

Martin Henriksen became the topscorer with 272 votes, while his associate Høgh-Sørensen only received 99 votes and lost his seat. Anders Vistisen received 199 votes and also lost his seat, just two votes from getting the third seat. Instead Jens Vornøe, leader of DPP Copenhagen, and ex-MP Merete Dea Larsen won the two remaining seats.

A bit of a mixed result for DPP leader Thulesen Dahl. He is probably quite happy that Vistisen is out, since he and MEP Peter Kofod have been very ambitious and seen as those pushing the hardest for a new leadership. Vistisen even openly ran on the platform of promoting Kofod to 2nd deputy leader instead of a close Thulesen Dahl ally. Vistisen also played to the membership with an thinly veiled attack on Thulelsen Dahl and Peter Skaarup for their witness statements against Morten Messerschmidt at his court trial. But the DPP leader would probably have preferred to see Henriksen out as well. Henriksen's attack on the party line creates unrest in public, and it's hard to see him tone down his style too much after this support. Also Vornøe has actively encouraged Pia Kjærsgaard to take over the leadership of the party again to get things under control.

I think Dea Larsen was the most impressive of the speakers. Interesting to see whether she wants and can rise further in the party. She was an MP from 2015-2019 but without getting any high-profile positions and has been a local councillor for several years. She also seems like she is on fairly good terms with both wings, perhaps leaning a bit towards the radical wing.

Former leader Pia Kjærsgaard was visible enraged by Henriksen and Høgh-Sørensen's speeches. Just look at her reaction in the clip below as Henriksen attacks the current line, and warns that the party is on the road to public indifference.
https://twitter.com/hansersej/status/1439218268208869376

If the party gets the expected poor local and regional election in november, the question is whether the party will see another round of internal fighting, and perhaps movement around the leadership position.

Merete Dea Larsen certainly has the ambition to rise further in the party. She has now announced that she is running as leader!

It will be interesting to see in the coming weeks an indication of who's supporting who in the leadership battle. Also, I would expect at least one additional candidate. Rebel ex-MP Martin Henriksen said in a recent interview, that he expects to be booted out of the party if Morten Messerschmidt becomes leader. So if he wants to remain the party, he might need to run as leader himself and gain control of the party. And his stated preference is of course for a more radical approach.

[Diouf]

Budget 2022 is ready - Christian Democrats polish centrist credentials



Today the government, SPP, Social Liberals, Red-Green Alliance, Alternative and Christian Democrats presented their deal on Budget 2022. The parties have agreed on a one-off increase for the hospital sector of 1 billion DKK to alleviate the current pressures with relation to the covid situation, the lack of personnel and the aftermath of this summer's nursing strike. Additionally, there will be more funds for maternity wards. Among other things, this deals caps the maximum class size in school at 26 for young children (currently 28), it adds three additional years of free dentistry (ages 18-21), increases funding for the teacher education and increases the possibility for children to get their school start postponed by a year if they aren't cognitively and socially ready for school.
In the budget, the craftsman deduction is abolished. This allowed you to deduct payments to house improvements, particularly green ones, from your tax. The parties argue that the high activity in the building sector means that such a deduction is no longer necessary. With a similar explanation, the parties have postponed 2 billions worth of improvements of apartments buildings.

Usually, a budget is agreed with a government and its support parties, so it's a bit remarkable to see a Blue party like the Christian Democrats as a part of this deal. The tiny centrist party with only one MP has seemed quite eager to be a part of the it. The frequent appearances of party leader Isabella Arendt in the recent deals have given the party some needed attention, and it allows the party to show off its centrist credentials. And it might play a further part that everybody expects Lars Løkke to soon launch the Moderates officially. A guess on a potential launch date could be 1 Januar 2022. That would then be exactly a year since he left the Liberals, and take some of the shine from the PM's New Year's speech the same day.

[Diouf]

Inger Støjberg received an unconditional sentence of 60 days. After a bizarre impeachment trial, which could only be followed via the writings of the Støjberg-hostile media, the former Immigration Minister received an absurdly tough sentence. I thought it would be a 20-6 majority for a sentence as the Liberal + Conservative judges were appointed before the two parties turned their backs on her, but it ended with a 25-1 sentence as the Liberals and Conservative judges followed the lead of their MPs who had voted to impeach her. So the outcome mirrored the impeachment vote in parliament with only DPP voting against (New Right + Lars Løkke weren't represented among the judges).

Now the same majority will vote to revoke her status as a MP, finalizing the deep state's charade. The first alternate for her is Gitte Willumsen, who ran as a Liberal in 2019, but has since changed to the Conservatives.

Now we await to see what she decides in relation to her future in politics. In the short term, there's soon a leadership election in DPP, so we will see whether she will want to involve her in that in any regard. I'm quite certain this sentence hasn't moved the needle much for DPP electors, but I'm less certain whether Støjberg wants to throw herself into the mix. Thulelsen Dahl just said that she could of course still become a good DPP leader.

[Diouf]

Rebel leader runs for DPP top job

As expected, ex-MP Martin Henriksen has decided to run for leader in the crisis-ridden party. Henriksen has been a proponent of the party turning right, and in his own words, "becoming a protest party again". He has been in constant conflict with party leadership in recent months, with his public statements against party policy plus his equally public attacks on other prominent politicians in the party. In the recent congress, he was in a obvious conflict with former leader Pia Kjærsgaard, but still ended up the highest vote getter in the election to the Executive Committee.
His behaviour has seen him sanctioned a couple of times, so it could be that he either becomes leader or quickly ends up thrown out of the party.

A week ago, I had some short doubt whether he would run or not as his ally Erik Høgh-Sørensen announced his candidature. He has been a loyal ally to Henriksen, but with a much more aggressive, unlikeable personal style. He lost his executive committee seat with a bang at the previous congress. When I saw him running, I wondered whether Henriksen would really refrain from running, but now it seems certain that it was just a pure vanity move from Høgh-Sørensen.

So the battle should be between Henriksen, Messerschmidt (+Kofod) and Dea Larsen. Henriksen certainly has the backing of a good part of the membership, but probably not many others in the leadership. Messerschmidt has for some time been Kjærsgaard's protege, and with Kofod as deputy/potential replacement, they should also have support of the moderate Kofod/Vistisen/DPP Youth leadership wing. If we see no more candidates, I will assume that Dea Larsen is the preferred candidate of the current leader Thulelsen Dahl and those around him. Her message seems to be that of unity, and if Messerschmidt and Henriksen tear each others' head of, it certainly shouldn't be ruled out that she could end up as leader. Particularly if Thulelsen Dahl more or less openly throws his support behind her.

Thulelsen Dahl will probably prefer Støjberg to join and become party leader, as that seems the most certain bet on someone who could make the party rise again and thereby secure it's survival. Also she could equally be a unity candidate as she is adored by most of the party, and untainted by current and previous internal battles. However, she has yet to make any comment about her political future, and it's probably looking less and less likely. Recently, i have seen two pieces, one from the editor of her home area newspaper and one from an ex-Conservative strategist, whom both says that the most likely it that she will form her own party/list. I don't know whether they have any actual sources, or if's just a coincidence, but it's one I really hope to be true. Her task would then probably be the reverse of Løkke's; unlike him she won't have much funding from rich donors and companies, but she will probably have a bigger group of enthusiastic activists.

[Diouf]

Rebel leader runs for DPP top job


 Messerschmidt has for some time been Kjærsgaard's protege, and with Kofod as deputy/potential replacement, they should also have support of the moderate Kofod/Vistisen/DPP Youth leadership wing.

Young wing being more moderate is surprising.
Is there any discussion of cooperation/merger with New Right or do two parties target different voters?

One hypothesis is that the leading youth politicians like to think more ideologically, and this current leadership of DPP Youth is following an anglo-saxon nationalconservative line of thought. This line is perhaps less likely to compromise on general freedom principles and would like to look more consistent in its ideas, while the radical wing in the party currently is usually more of the "common man just saying things like I see them" style. And this is of course mostly in relation to immigration, which defines the party. On economy, it seems like at least some in the radical wing can easier live with a fairly populist left-wing appeal than those nationalconservatives who would more naturally align with the other Blue Bloc parties.

DPP Youth btw just played the main part in a news story that broke an hour ago. As leading members of the Youth organization has made a "meme video" which attacks the leadership candidates, apart from Messerschmidt + Kofod, which have been distributed widely internally.
It's based on the common template of a Spanish-speaking guy without teeth laughing his way through an interview. In this template, this guy is then presented as Thulelsen Dahl speaking. About Merete Dea Larsen, it says "She is so naive that she thinks she is about to be the new number 1 in the party. While she thinks she will get power in the party, I will stand behind her, pulling the strings, making the marionette dance." It also says her dad was exluded from the party years ago for wanting to bring nazies into the party, and that now he's living handily from all the posts her daughter got him through her position as local councillor. It similarly says that she will probably have to drag the "idiot" Martin Henriksen alongside her, and that Thulelsen Dahl can then easily keep on controlling the party, no change, with these two "morons" in power. It says Henriksen's main attempt to create an edge to the other parties, was to propose Danes could carry arms, and says one could then soon expect a book from him and Høgh-Sørensen on how to create your own bombs. Finally, the video also attacks Thulelsen Dahl himself from taking all the posts he can get to grab as much cash as possible.

https://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/politik/danskpolitik/intern-video-afsloerer-beskidt-borgerkrig/9048590

And no, no discussion of a merger with the New Right at all. They are still a new party, and there is a fair deal of animosity between them. Many DPPers see it as unfair how fast the New Right has risen and taken many of their supporters. While DPP has been fighting the cause for years, then suddenly a bunch of former Conservatives and LAs create a new party, attacking DPP for not doing enough on immigration and succeeding with it. For sure, their immigration focus means that there is a common pool of voters, they are fishing in. But they also vary in their broader appeals. And it's best, DPP can appeal to many Social Democrats and Liberal voters with their welfare-happy economic policies and tough immigration policies, while New Right is more able to attract from the economic right wing of Conservatives, Liberals and LA.

[Diouf]

Morten Messerschmidt is running as leader of DPP in a bid with MEP Peter Kofod as deputy. The extraordinary congress in DPP is on 23 January, while Messerschmidt's EU fraud case is expected to take place in the High Court from 20 December to 24 February. The schedule could change if Messerschmidt's appeal to annul the Lower Court sentence is granted due to the expressed bias of the Lower Court judge who had liked Messerschmidt-critical posts on Facebook. Then the Lower Court case would have to run again.
Running with Kofod means that the latter can run the party if Messerschmidt gets a sentence which prevents him from doing it effectively.
However, both also say that if Inger Støjberg is willing to join DPP and run as leader, they will both withdraw their candidatures.

Among their political goals, they said they want referendums on the European Convention on Human Rights as well as one on EU membership. Also they say the party should do its utmost to join a government where there is a centre-right majority (Thulelsen Dahl was often criticized for not joining the government after the brilliant 2015 election).

Messerschmidt's sentence at the Lower Court has just been annulled due to the judge being explicitly biased in the case with FB-likes of critial Messerschmidt-posts before and after the ruling. A number of the critical posts btw written by the increasingly hysterical former Minister Søren Pind.

A significant win for Messerschmidt ahead of the DPP congress in January. The case will then have to go in front of the Lower Court again, which means the case, which started back in October 2015 with the EP investigations, will go on for many more months. He can hardly expect to get a more DPP-friendly judge the next time, but there are other aspects which might help him. While he will probably again face some sentence for a fake hotel bill, there should be a significant chance of the other part of the sentence being milder/not repeated. Since then, a sound file from the DPP congress emerged where Messerschmidt can be heard talking about the EU seminar the previous day. This could undermine the sentence from the original Lower Court sentence that there really was no EU seminar, which was explicitly based on the witness statements, mostly from his internal opponent, DPP parliamentary group leader Peter Skaarup.

[Diouf]

The Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen said she would not back another one-party government after the next election. She said the current government has shown an unprecedented power arrogance and implemented an unacceptable amount of top-down control of the government bureaucracy by virtue of no-one opposing the PM as all ministers are from the same party. She said a new government should be formed across the political centre, so likely some combination of the Social Democrats (+ maybe SPP), Social Liberals and then at least one of the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, Liberal Alliance or Conservatives. I'm guessing that in practice, she would also accept just another Social Democrat-Social Liberal government, but unless such a government is based on at least one centre-right party as support party, the rhetoric will ring quite hollow.

Tonight the deadline to stand as candidate for DPP leader runs out, and it doesn't look like we will get more than the current 4 candidates. Inger Støjberg today said that she is not running as DPP leader (she hasn't even joined the party), but said she looked forward to becoming a part of parliament again, signalling that she will run again at the next election. Of the four candidates, Morten Messerschmidt seems to become a bigger and bigger favourite. 4 (+1 in himself) of the 16 MPs have announced their support for him, most noticably Financial Spokesperson René Christensen. And today Messerschmidt announced that when handing in his candidature, he didn't just hand in the necessary 15 delegate signatures, he handed in 400 delegate signatures which is around half of all the expected delegates (I don't believe the exact figure is known yet). That seems like an attempt to show so much strength that the leadership election is basically over already, and the others will not even put up a fight, but that hasn't happened yet. Departing leader Kristian Thulelsen Dahl has clearly signalled his opposition to Messerschmidt by publicly attacking the proposed idea of a ticket with Messerschmidt + Kofod, and he said that the Messerschmidt EU fraud case was thé defining moment which started the party's downward turn. Martin Henriksen has also challenged Messerschmidt to a number of public duels, which Messerschmidt has so far rejected. Henriksen has the backing of one MP, Bent Bøgsted, while none have supported Merete Dea Larsen or Erik Høgh-Sørensen. None of the really big players in the parliamentary group have declared yet, but Pia Kjærsgaard is seen as a certain Messerschmidt supporter while Thulelsen Dahl and Skaarup are clearly opposed to him. Liselotte Blixt, who along with Thulelsen Dahl, Skaarup, Messerschmidt and Christensen, form the parliamentary group leadership, has said that she is disappointed that none of the candidates seem to have proposed ideas to polish the DPP's social profile, instead Messerschmidt in particular has talked about becoming a more stable part of the Blue bloc (i.e. less opposition to Blue economic policies). Of the most significant policy proposals so far, Messerschmidt has mentioned "3-strikes = life time penalty" for gang-related crimes, while Henriksen has proposed changing the Constitution so only Danish citizens can get any social benefits.

[Diouf]

Liselotte Blixt, who along with Thulelsen Dahl, Skaarup, Messerschmidt and Christensen, form the parliamentary group leadership, has said that she is disappointed that none of the candidates seem to have proposed ideas to polish the DPP's social profile, instead Messerschmidt in particular has talked about becoming a more stable part of the Blue bloc (i.e. less opposition to Blue economic policies).

So, basically competing with NB?

There will be a hard competition with NB no matter what for the voters with immigration as the main topic. On economy, New Right has the most right-wing policies, and I don't see DPP getting near that. It's more that the DPP under Messerschmidt could be more willing to make Blue Bloc deals where Liberal Alliance and New Right get some of their preferred tax policies (e.g. cutting the top tax rate) in exchange for DPP wishes. A deal Thulelsen Dahl was famously unwilling to make when Løkke was PM, and directly asked about that Messerschmidt said "I'm more pragmatic". And just generally less direct cooperation with the Social Democrats, which the party did a number of times during the latest Løkke government.

[Diouf]

Tonight the deadline to stand as candidate for DPP leader runs out, and it doesn't look like we will get more than the current 4 candidates. Inger Støjberg today said that she is not running as DPP leader (she hasn't even joined the party), but said she looked forward to becoming a part of parliament again, signalling that she will run again at the next election.

Tonight, the tabloid Ekstra Bladet writes that Støjberg is working to create a new party. The article says her hope is to draw in profiles from DPP and the Liberals. Kristian Thulelsen Dahl and Peter Skaarup from the former is mentioned, while the Liberal MEP Søren Gade is also brought up.
Let's see if other sources can corroborate the story, and give more details of how far the proces actually is. The things mentioned in the article sounds like the very best case scenario, so could just be the dreams of those close to her. One can just look at how Løkke hasn't been able to attract any other politicians yet (although we should perhaps wait and see when the Moderates is (soon?) officially made eligible). Although Støjberg probably has a better personal relationship with many colleagues compared to Løkke who, partially due to his job of course, has probably burned more bridges with people.

https://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/politik/danskpolitik/stoejberg-arbejder-paa-nyt-parti/9073265

[Diouf]

Dear God, what niche would yet another party fill? How would a Støjberg party even differ from NB?

The entire Støjberg case remains absolutely scandalous (how the hell does a democratic country just "fire" an MP elected by the people and send her to jail for things she did as a minister that a parliamentary majority approved of at the time) and I sincerely wonder why there hasn't been more attention for it throughout Europe - probably because it doesn't fit the narrative of Denmark as anti-immigration nation.

Well, I think I remember someone posting in the Danish thread years ago, that we could end up with a sort of Belgian system with doubling of parties. Just instead of the language barrier, it could be the barrier of tough immigration politics. That was back when it was rumoured that there would be a socialist anti-immigration party running, which didn't end up happening. But I think you could still use that mindset. So if you just look at economy, we have a centre-leftish party and a far right party on the anti-immigration side. Støjberg's party would then take the centre-right position where there would be some space.

In reality, people might not look that closely at all of a party's policies and go partly by the vibe and the personalities. While Messerschmidt and Vermund are really able and popular leaders, I would imagine that if Støjberg really gathered Gade, Thulelsen Dahl, Skaarup etc., that would be the biggest player, especially because they can appeal to a wider audience. I would think a Støjberg party would be closer to the most Eurosceptic parts of the Liberals + the Moderate DPP wing than the New Right. Støjberg still sees herself as the True Liberal. So the general economic policies would be fairly standard Liberal, with the differences being a stronger support for the agricultural sector + rural areas, less focus on climate change, more Eurosceptic (but not wanting to leave the EU, at least unless Britain ends up with some superamazing deal that could be copied) and very critical of the lack of sovereignty on the immigration question (ECHR, UN conventions etc). So still less revolutionary than New Right's wish to leave EU, significantly cut down the public sector and lower taxes greatly.

And yes of course fully agree with your point about the anti-democratic nature of being able to vote out another MP. Kudos to MP Rosa Lund from the Red-Green Alliance who actually argued against this action due to it being anti-democratic, in the same way as one of its constituent parties, the Left Socialists did back in 1983 when Progress Party leader Mogens Glistrup was voted out. But of course the leftist elite isn't very tolerant of dissent, so after Lund had been burned at the Twitter stake for 24 hours, she and the party withdrew its objection and voted along with expelling Støjberg as a MP.

[Diouf]

The Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen said she would not back another one-party government after the next election. She said the current government has shown an unprecedented power arrogance and implemented an unacceptable amount of top-down control of the government bureaucracy by virtue of no-one opposing the PM as all ministers are from the same party. She said a new government should be formed across the political centre, so likely some combination of the Social Democrats (+ maybe SPP), Social Liberals and then at least one of the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, Liberal Alliance or Conservatives. I'm guessing that in practice, she would also accept just another Social Democrat-Social Liberal government, but unless such a government is based on at least one centre-right party as support party, the rhetoric will ring quite hollow.

Is this seen more as an uncrossable red line or empty rhetoric to make the party seem moderate and relevant? The current government has been able to cut the Social Liberals out of many key policy agreements so it’s understandable they want one where they would have more influence and policy achievements, but of course the Social Democrats would presumably want to protect the status quo which has worked well for them. SPP and EL will also prefer the current government to the 2011-2015 one, so presumably they aren’t enthused by this proposal either.

I think many see it as the party decisively choosing to go for the sensible, centrist government party route instead of the more woke, pro-immigration protest party route (which would probably give more votes). Carsten Nielsen explicitly acknowledges that no matter what, it will be difficult for the party to change Danish immigration policies very much. And as you point out, if the Social Liberals follow through on this route and the Social Democrats, as one would expect, really doesn't want the Social Liberals in their government, then there could be a massive stand-off between the two parties after an election if the Social Liberals has the decisive seats. The left wing, incl. Social Democrats, will try to say that it's a clear choice. You must quickly decide between Red and Blue Bloc and do you Social Liberals really wanna join a majority with DPP and New Right? While the Social Liberal argument will be that there are plenty of mainstream seats, when withdrawing Red-Green, DPP and New Right seats, so they want to build a broad centrist government and have the patience to reject any Bloc government until mainstream parties worth at least 90 seats come together across the middle.
 
And yes, the Red-Green Alliance is very unhappy, and has so far been clearly most vocal in their attacks on the Social Liberals, while Social Democrats have kept their powder dry. Just some qoutes from prominent Red-Green politicians on Twitter.
Pernille Skipper: "Now we know what it's all about for the Social Liberals: Getting to drive in a Minister's Car. Immigration policy, climate policy, welfare policy does not matter. They can renege on anything for fancy titles."
Mai Villadsen: "We used to stand side-by-side with the Social Liberals, fighting for a more humane and fair immigration policy. Now they are willing to vote for inhuman policies - in exchange for Minister Cars. A sad day in Danish Politics"

[Diouf]

It seems impossible that the Social Liberals would join a government reliant on hardline anti immigration parties, and even forming a government with the ‘mainstream’ of the Blue Bloc looks like something their voters would not be remotely happy about (in addition to not really being a centrist government, it’s not a certainty they’d want to be in government with the Social Liberals, and it probably wouldn’t have a majority anyways). Therefore, the Social Liberals don’t seem to realistically be able to threaten the left of centre parties with an alternative government, but rather just stop any government being formed. In that case, the left can wait it out and claim the Social Liberals should be responsible and support the continuation of the current government rather than prolong a messy cross bloc negotiation, and threaten another election where the Social Liberals would be squeezed if they don’t.

Would you say this is a fair analysis or have the Social Liberals fallen out with the left enough that they would be willing to go fully right or at least stand their ground and never allow a left only government regardless of how long it takes?

Well, as we both write it will be a standoff between mainly the Social Democrats and Social Liberals. How strong a pressure either of them would face to stand down will depend on many things in the context.
How will the Social Liberals look after an election, in terms of voters, MPs? My standard assumption will be that they are cut down in size, and especially those voters who wants certainty for a left-wing government will leave during an election campaign or already before, as they are attacked for not ensuring a pure left-wing government. Will that be perceived as a loss for this strategy and see the party forced to crawl back on their knees to the left wing party, or will it strengthen their resolve and see them fear less the loss of leftwing voters by standing strong?
Is the Social Liberals the only centrist party, or do Christian Democrats and/or Moderates make it into parliament as well, creating a strong centrist bloc?
How does the left wing parties look? Do they all get good election results or will there be a strong swing towards the right? Will it only be Social Democrats, SPP and Red-Green Alliance, or will a more extreme party like Independent Greens or the Vegan Party get in, which could make the Social Democrats less willing to to rely only on the left.
How does the right wing parties look? Will the Liberals get smashed to the degree that a weakened Ellemann is willing to consider being a minor partner in a Social Democrat-led government?
What is the political context? Are there any major crises (financial, immigration, foreign policy etc.) which creates a demand for a stable government, and who does that demand hit the hardest?

So in conclusion, I think there are too many uncertainties at all fronts currently to predict with much certainty how such a possible standoff would end after an election. The Social Democrats do have the advantage that the current government is a Social Democrat minority government, and even if a vote of no-confidence gets a majority, it will still be the caretaker government until another government is ready. So this could eventually give way to talking points about how bad can they really find a Social Democrat minority government, when it seems to have worked fine for X months as a caretaker government. In theory, the Social Liberals could try to remove them of that advantage by getting an agreement with the Blue parties to install an independent caretaker government while negotiations are ongoing, but that might be too much of a clever TV move to become reality

[Diouf]

No signal of the big coming together behind Messerschmidt yet. Today MP Marie Krarup said that "unfortunately" she cannot support him as leader. She says he has weaknesses as a leader, shown by the fiascos of his leadership of the EP delegations he led, in both terms a DPP MEP colleague left the group largely due to personal disagreements with him. She also said he let down the party by not withdrawing as DPP deputy leader after getting his sentence in the Lower Court.
She said that while she has disagreements with Martin Henriksen, he is "a man you can trust, and who doesn't claim to be anything more than what he is".
Ex-MP Jeppe Jakobsen has left the party as he doesn't trust any of the leadership candidates. Messerschmidt has "had his hands in the money jar" so isn't a worthy leader. Also he is a hypocrite who demands absolute loyalty towards his own person, but has done nothing but attacking the current leader from behind. Martin Henriksen is too far from his own line politically, "we shouldn't enter a arms race with NB to say things the roughest possible way or change the constitution". Erik Høgh-Sørensen represents the absolute fringe of the party, and Merete Dea Larsen doesn't have the personal qualities to lead such a big organisation.
Pia Kjærsgaard has, as expected, endorsed Messerschmidt and again attacked Martin Henriksen. Henriksen now says that there will be no room for either of them in the leadership of the party if he wins.

In other news, the leader of the Defence Intelligence Service has been jailed and charged with leaking highly classified information. I guess there could be some political effects of such a scandal.

[Diouf]

The Vegan Party has gotten a rare mention as the party today threw out co-founder and ex-leader Henrik Vindfeldt. The party says he's thrown out due to offensive behaviour (non-sexual) towards party members. Their political spokesperson Michael Monberg says: "Henrik is a hard worker. But we can no longer turn the blind eye to the way he treats his colleagues. It tears our organisation apart".
Vindfeldt himself rejects the accusation, and says that he wanted offensive behaviour by another in the party leadership investigated, but due to nepotism it didn't happen. Vindfeldt believes his exclusion is due to political differences: "There are two wings in the party. I belong to the moderate wing, which likes to talk policy proposals, and wants to lay the foundation for an agrictultural reform. The other wing wants to focus on shaming the lifestyle of meat eaters. This political difference has been evident for some time, and has now turned into a nasty showdown".

[Diouf]

The ante keeps getting upped in DPP, where MP Marie Krarup said yesterday that "if Morten Messerschmidt becomes leader, there is a good chance that the part of the parliamentary group, which doesn't find that a good idea, will break out and form a new party". Another Messerschmidt-opponent in the parliamentary group, Bent Bøgsted, said he wouldn't rule out leaving the party and that he was certain that a majority of the group does not support Messerschmidt's project.

Lars Løkke has teased that the Moderates could officially become an eligible party on the 18 January, which would be exactly one year after the first meeting in his "political meeting place", which has worked at the foundation of the new party.

[Diouf]

Each day as we inch towards the extraordinary congress on 23 January, there seems to be a new dramatic development in the DPP leadership race.
Today Ekstra Bladet revealed an audio file from an internal DPP parliamentary group meeting from october 2019. In the audio file, Messerschmidt strongly criticizes Pernille Vermund and ends off with calling her "a first class mean b*tch". Pia Kjærsgaard loudly backs him. Messerschmidt then goes on to say that "if anyone is willing to gamble all of the Blue Bloc unity for a small profit for oneself, then it's that shrew from Helsingør". Kjærsgaard later calls her "a snake".
Kijærsgaard later in the audio file goes off about another New Right MP, Mette Thiesen, calling her as thick as two short planks.
https://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/politik/danskpolitik/messerschmidt-amok-i-lydfil-vermund-er-en-led-kaelling/9080534

Lars Løkke gave an interview to Weekendavisen where he revealed parts of the Moderates' political program. He wants to introduce a new "citizen's duty" of six months for all youngsters. Youngsters will live together and carry out tasks, this could be within environmental protection, cultural activities, civil society organisations etc. as well as a more standard conscription in the army. He argues it's necessary to ensure unity and cohesion by mixing people from different layers of society, so people get an understanding of others' way of life. The party also wants to convert parts of the study grant to a loan (with a deduction once you graduate to ensure more students, particularly foreign ones, stay and work in Denmark). They have a comprehensive proposal for a new tax reform: The point at which you start paying the top tax rate will be raised, a new top-top tax rate for the very high earners, lower taxes on entrepreunership, stocks and investments, a CO2 tax and a higher job deduction. Løkke says he will be more "pragmatic" on immigration policy; he attacks the government for being to slow to bring home Danish citizens (children of ISIS terrorists) from camps in Syria plus wants more foreign labour. He mirrors the recent Social Liberal criticism of the Mette Frederiksen government as too self-willed and patronizing. He won't point towards a specific PM candidate, but says that he wants a majority government with a long-term reform programme.
https://www.weekendavisen.dk/2022-2/samfund/et-halvt-aar-for-danmark

Another big Liberal name leaves their parliamentary group. Karsten Lauritzen, who has been a MP for 15 years, leaves parliament to become leader of the transport section in the Confederation of Danish Industry. Lauritzen received 18 335 personal votes in Northern Jutland in 2019, the 14th highest of all. So now 4 of the 6 highest Liberal vote getters in 2019 have all left the parliamentary group. Lauritzen had a high position as parliamentary group leader, and was a fairly popular Minister of Taxation from 2015-2019. He has been a quite loyal support of Ellemann's project, so another blow for the Liberal leader's ambition to build a strong team around him.

In other news, the leader of the Defence Intelligence Service has been jailed and charged with leaking highly classified information. I guess there could be some political effects of such a scandal.

This one keeps developing. Today it was made public that the police also wants to charge MP, and former Minister of Defence, Claus Hjort Frederiksen with the same crime. It requires parliament to lift his immunity.

[Diouf]

Is there an expectation that the proper launch of the party will see a substantial and sustained polling increase, because so far the limited polling doesn’t look great?

Most commentators sound fairly certain that he will get in, but not with a bang. So I think an average guess might be around 3%. Even if the Moderates should fall just below 2% nationally, there is an expectation that he will at least win a constituency seat and draw a MP or three with him into parliament that way (in 2019, he personally received 7.8% of all votes in the Zealand constituency, which had a threshold around 4% for gaining a constituency seat)
Whether that's a substantial and sustained polling increase, depends somewhat on which polls you look at. YouGov already includes the party in the polls and has had it at around 4%, while Gallup which does the same have them down at around the 2% threshold. Voxmeter, who takes up a lot of the polling space with their weekly polls, does only include eligible parties, and after a short rise for "others", it has now been only at around 1% recently.

When I see what journalists and commentators write/say around Løkke and the party, there are two potentially negative narratives for Løkke flowing. One is that he can't attract any other prominent candidates, and that the party is basically only a "Løkke list". So if there aren't a couple of big names presented fairly soon, that is an angle that will increase. The other is that the journalists are simply annoyed about the protracted process. Løkke has used a drip drop model, where he has slowly given a tiny piece of information or hint, and then waited a week or two before another tiny bit etc. So they feel he is trying to gain an "unfair" amount of media attention, hoping for a new headline each week. So to me, it seems like a good amount of media are almost now deliberately undercovering him. Example of that sentiment in a tweet like this from the editor of a big politics website: "The Moderates will (perhaps) launch January 18, @larsloekke informs in a video on Facebook. Perhaps telling that the news has not really spread, and it's now 15 hours since it was posted. The interest in the many intermediate steps have run out #dkpol". We will see how they will cover him, once it does becomes an official party, but is perhaps worrying that so many media already seem to focus on not giving him "too much" airspace. Maybe the problem will not be as big due to the big reach of his social media accounts.

[Diouf]

The least likely winner of the DPP leadership race, Erik Høgh-Sørensen, has withdrawn from the race. He says that Messerschmidt does not have the necessary qualities to lead the party, and hopes that the two remaining non-Messerschmidt candidates will now form a united, strong leadership team. Two additional MPs revealed their preferences, with Liselotte Blixt going for Merete Dea Larsen and Hans Kristian Skibby endorsing Martin Henriksen. So the tally is now 5+himself for Messerschmidt, 3 for Henriksen, 1 for Dea Larsen with 6 who haven't announced. More of those endorsing a non-Messerschmidt candidate has publicly stated their doubts about remaining in the party under his leadership. Thulesen Dahl has covid so won't be present at the extraordinary congress. Bizarrely, it sounds like it won't be possible to vote remotely, so he apparently won't be able to vote for his predecessor.

It seems like we will still have to wait some months for the Moderates being officially registrered as a party, and therefore test their support in all polls. It sounds like it won't officially register as an eligible party for the next general election yet. Instead they will wait to do that until their foundational party congress on 5 June (unless an early election is called before then).
They have announced the party logo and created a new home page. And policy-wise Løkke has presented policy proposals in 9 areas, most which are mentioned previously in the Weekendavisen interview. Of additional measures, the party wants a new benefit (the possibility to choose a lower cash benefit without any job centre demands for persons out of employment for years), a more de-centralized public sector with more independent institutions (e.g. powerful school boards) and abolishing the Regions and create a new structure to run the health care service. The party opposes the government's proposed "welfare law" with automatic increases in welfare spending as the demographic changes, this would eat up the state funds and make it almost impossible to find the proper funds for green policies. There is also what seems like a quite controversial proposal that there should be a new agreement on labour market pensions, so workers not only save up for their retirement benefits but also save up to pay for some of their elderly care. Finally to attract foreign labour, anyone from an OECD-country with a contract worth at least the collective agreement minimum wage can come freely. For anyone else, the limit one must earn to get a work permit should be drastically lowered from 37.000 kr. a month to 27.000 kr. a month.

https://moderaterne.dk/politik/

[Diouf]

Christian Democrat ace not running again

In the 2019 general election, the Christian Democrats were 200 votes from winning a constituency seat in Western Jutland which would have seen the party enter parliament with 3/4 MPs. That succes was in large part due to the popularity of Kristian Andersen, who after 20 years as head of a Christian continuation school, now leads the family section of the Danish Lutheran Mission. Andersen received 10 890 personal votes, more than half of the 17 016 votes the party received in the constituency. In the 2021 local elections, he kept building on his popularity in the Ringkøbing-Skjern municipality, where he led the party to 19.5% of the votes and 3 494 personal votes, the highest of all. A Liberal - Social Democrat alliance again kept him away from the mayor's office though.

In 2019, his great performance also affected the Liberals, who for the first time since 1988 didn't get a MP elected in Ringkøbing. The Liberals now have a more well-known candidate, Mads Fuglede, who has moved to the area with his family. So even if the Liberals lose 1/2 of their current five seats in the constituency, there should be a good chance of them getting a candidate from the area elected.

Kristian Andersen said he has made the decision to focus on his job and role in local politics, but it could also be a sign that he is less supportive of the party's new profile, where the abortion and christian values have been moderated and less emphasized, instead focusing on branding itself as a constructive, green, centrist force on the borgerlige side of politics. I doubt the party has another candidate who could draw in so much local support. So this probably makes it less likely that the party could take the backdoor into parliament via a regional constituency MP instead of hitting 2% nationally.
Party leader Isabella Arendt has moved from the Eastern Jutland constituency to Copenhagen, partly because that's where she lives, but also to increase the party's support in a weak area with many voters (they only won 0.7% there in 2019). I have yet to see where the party's sole MP, Jens Rohde will run. In 2019, he ran for the Social Liberals in Copenhagen, but he surely won't run there again. It would have been obvious for him to take over the Eastern Jutland constituency, but without Andersen running, there is a chance he could opt for Western Jutland (where he lives in Viborg). In a best case for the party, they can reduce their losses in the western part of the constituency and Rohde give them enough support in the eastern part of the constituency to get them across the finish line anyway.

[Diouf]

Government agrees labour market deal with "Boomer"-reform of unemployment benefits



Today the government agreed a labour market reform package with DPP, SPP, Social Liberals and Christian Democrats. The headline of the deal is an agreement to change the balance of the unemployment benefit system. The parties agreed to cut the level and the lenght of the benefits for graduates, while the level of benefits is raised in the first three months for persons who have worked two of the last three years. There is a slight alleviation for persons in education as they raise the amount you can earn while studying without getting your student grant reduced. The parties raise the labour union deduction while you can now only get a deduction for a private unemployment benefit scheme if you are also part of a unemployment fund which forms the backbone of the public system.
The parties also agreed to raise the maximum amount you can get in job deduction, lowering the household energy tariff and removing the household pension reduction. This meant that if one person worked and earned a fine salary, there would be a reduction in their partner's pension, both retirement and early retirement pensions. Also retired persons will be able to work a bit more without getting their pension reduced. Finally, the parties wants to change some of the business support schemes in a more green direction + removing some to raise investments in welfare educations + higher educations.

The government also wanted to attract more foreign labour due to the lack of workers. However, DPP opposed this being a part of the deal. Instead, the government agreed with SPP, Social Liberals and Christian Democrats to make a law proposal which will be presented to parliament, and they then bet that some of the Blue parties will vote for in the chamber, as this is something Liberals, Liberal Alliance and Conservatives have often demanded. The law proposal will for two years reduce the limit one must earn to get a work permit from 37 000 DKK to 31 000 DKK.