Danish Elections and Politics

[Diouf]

Morten Messerschmidt has been made deputy leader of DPP, entrenching his role as the heir apparent in the party and calming the ship after speculation about a potential leadership battle. Messerschmidt had made a couple of prominent interviews, where he criticized the party's policies as being to weak, and that there was a need for a more offensive approach with a strong focus on repatriation and EU-opposition. The 39-year old Messerschmidt replaces one of the old guard, 67-year old Søren Espersen, who accepted to resign to give Messerschmidt a more prominent position and avoid internal battles.

[Diouf]

The Civic List (formerly known as Klaus Riskær Pedersen) has now lost its eligibility since its 18 months and an election since they won eligibility. The Christian Democrats are officially eligible, and scored 1.6% in the first Voxmeter poll yesterday. The party presented a big climate policy proposal last week with support for nuclear power and a stop for drilling for oil in the North Sea.

In other news, former PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen has a new book to sell, so he has had another round of media with the same messages he pushed a year ago during the election campaign. First and foremost, that the Liberals should form a government across the centre with the Social Liberals and/or Social Democrats, and that they shouldn't cooperate with New Right. Which is of course opposed to the Liberal party line, which is back to being about uniting the Blue parties. Løkke then again teased that he might withdraw from politics or start a new party. This is of course more than enough to warrant an exclusion, but so far most of the party has more treated him with pity than anger. They probably don't want to force the issue and make Løkke a martyr, although of course the situation could become even more untenable.

[Diouf]

Rape legislation tightened after Swedish example



In 2018 Sweden tightened its rape legislation by lowering the barrier for what constitutes a rape. Today a majority agreed on following the Swedish example with a rape legislation which emphasizes consent. This is meant to outlaw more situations where one part has been passive, but not explicitly rejected the intercourse. The agreement was made between the Government, Social Liberals, SPP and the Red- Green Alliance. Particularly for the non-Social Democratic left, this has been a big issue for years.

[Diouf]

Free Greens are made of this: Ex-Alternative MPs form new party



Today, ex-Alternative MP Sikandar Siddique in the middle of Nørrebro presented a new party, the Free Greens, alongside fellow MP Susanne Zimmer and former Copenhagen Mayor of Culture Niko Grünfeld. Former Alternative leader Uffe Elbæk is also involved in the project, but since he is retiring at the end of this term, he chose to leave the stage for the other candidates. Siddique said that "Free Greens will be a frontal attack on the status quo. On the big companies who pollute way too much. On the banks who cheat us. On those who destroy our nature. On the oppressors and racists. To those who become richer on our behalf. Be scared. Cause we are coming for you." In other comments, Siddique emphasized the party's lack of willingness to make compromises and criticized the Alternative for being willing to compromise with Mette Frederiksen. He also praised Extinction Rebellion, and focused on the role of a loudspeaker rather than someone who makes political agreements. He also said they wanted a red PM, which could be a Red-Green or a Social Democrat.
 
Although we did not hear about all policy areas in depth, it basically sounds like they would be to the left of the Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative. And a style of communication which sounds revolutionary compared to the two parties, who have both moved in a more pragmatic direction. It will be interesting to see how much of the former Alternative party structure will follow them and re-emerge. Elbæk is still a well-known name, but the question is how much energy he will throw behind the project with retirement looming. The Green spot will be quite crowded if the Alternative, the Vegan Party and the Free Greens are all running at the next general election.

In other news, negotiations have started about the Social Democratic marquee project of a right to early retirement for some as well as the 2021 budget. Today, an independent working group, established by the former government, presented proposals to make a more climate friendly car tariff system, so perhaps a big deal could be looming there as well.

[Diouf]

The Vegan Party is now officially eligible at the next general election. They have chosen the party letter G. They were included for the first time in the rolling Voxmeter poll, released this Monday. Here they received 0.3%.

[Diouf]

Would the alternative splinter take more votes from them or the Red-Greens

There aren't many votes left to pinch from the Alternative, who polls below 1%. And the Vegan Party does not seem like it has left a big mark left in the wider public yet, so not many votes to steal from there. So the Red-Greens seem like the most obvious reservoir of votes, which would also make sense politically. The Red-Greens have become quite calm and parliamentary during the recent decade, so those far-left voters who just want the the most intense rhetoric could opt for the Independent Greens*. While their extreme de-growth philosophy would probably not be attractive for the old communists, they could harness the radical, young activist group for whom green and racial issues are more important.

* This is the translation they use at their webpage. Also Rasmus Paludan has started a new party called Hard Line to collect signatures after Stram Kurs was banned after trying to cheat with the signatures again, so I guess that is their preferred translation instead of Tough Line which I liked better.

[Diouf]

The Conservatives polled their best result in more than ten years today in an Epinion poll for Altinget and DR. The poll shows the party at 10.6% and 19 seats, which makes it the third biggest party. Unsurprisingly, the party seems to attract many Liberal voters as the Liberals decline to 17.7%. 29% of the Conservative voters in the poll voted Liberal in 2019. The New Right keeps rising as well, but their level of support continue to divide the pollsters. Epinion has them high, and now all the way up at 6.9%, which makes the marginally bigger than both SPP, Social Liberals and DPP in this poll. They have taken some of the last voters from Hard Line, which will soon lose its eligibility and does not get much PR, as well as a fair amount of voters from DPP and the Liberals.

The Vegan Party is at 0.3% here as well, so no immediate public breakthrough. Previously, the Vegan Party said that they liked the Liberals 0% and Social Democrats 10%, so they could end up supporting a Social Democrat PM. However, after the Government presented its signature policy proposal, earlier retirement for some group of workers, at a slaughterhouse, the Vegan Party said that they now feel unable to support Mette Frederiksen.

[Diouf]

Social Liberal leader resigns after groping scandal



After a six hour long meeting in the parliamentary group, Morten Østergaard just announced that he is resigning as Social Liberal leader. The party's meeting had in secret been moved from parliament to the Black Diamant library in Copenhagen, but the press quickly found out where the drama was happening.
In the middle of September, Social Liberal MP Lotte Rod announced that she had been groped a couple of times several years ago in a party gathering. Østergaard today admitted that he was the one, who groped Rod ten years ago. Østergaard has tried to cover up the case by saying that the case had been settled with an apology by the groper, but without announcing what had happen. Several MPs have criticized his handling of the case and lack of transparency. And after more and more Social Liberal MPs refused they were the perpetrator, it looked more and more likely that Østergaard was indeed the guilty part.

Current deputy leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen will take over as leader. The 45-year old was Minister for Research, Innovation and Higher Education in the last year of the Thorning-government. She has been deputy leader and parliamentary group leader since 2015.

[Diouf]

Carsten Nielsen won leadership in contested election



The new Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen met the press after her election as leader. She was flanked by most of the parliamentary group, including Lotte Rod (furthest right in the picture). Carsten Nielsen confirmed that there was an election between her and Martin Lidegaard, the former Foreign Minister, which she won 12-4.

Lidegaard just wrote in a Facebook post that he ran because he wanted a more centrist strategy than that which Østergaard and Carsten Nielsen have used. He believes the party could gain more influence on its key issues by moving closer to the center. This is probably aimed at primarily the party's immigration policy, where they have been loud about a very leftist policy, which is the main reason why it's unpalatable for the Social Democrats to include them in government.

[Diouf]

No way Forward



Today, MP Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille and former MP Christina Egelund announced that they are giving up on their new parti Fremad (Forward). Ammitzbøll-Bille said the main reason behind the decision is that he is not able to put the energy into the project that it needs. However, he does add that it hasn't helped with his lack of credibility after his time in the leadership of Liberal Alliance. Also he thinks the political environment with several new parties have made their mission more difficult. He says the ambition was to break the national conservative focus of the Blue Bloc, but he hasn't been able to do that. For the moment, he said he will continue as a "free bird" in parliament, but added that he is closer to the exit than the entrance. So we must assume he is looking for a new job outside parliament. If he leaves parliament, Liberal Alliance will be restored to 4 seats as he will be replaced by 36-year old entrepreneur Danny Malkowski, who has a few months experience as replacement MP. I believe Malkowsi would be the first proper MP with double citizenship (one of his parents is German), which has only been allowed in Denmark since September 2015.

[Diouf]

He says the ambition was to break the national conservative focus of the Blue Bloc, but he hasn't been able to do that.

This seems like a real white whale of Danish politics?

Yeah, that space is probably pursued even more because that point of view is so overrepresented in elite opinion. From there you often hear the wishes for a "respectable" centre-right party you can vote for without getting all that dirty immigration talk. However, in reality that market is probably fairly small. Although, in a country with a 2% threshold, it should of course be enough to get into parliament if you have the right figure and the right style. So in the recent year, there have been three different attempts without success. But both Klaus Riskær Pedersen and Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille had very low favorability ratings, so were never prime candidates for doing a Macron. Christian Democrats, in some respect, were more or less the same place politically, but due to the party's background and religious values, it is still largely another group of voters they attract than the more obvious urban socially liberal types, which Forward pursued. Klaus Riskær Pedersen was also less ideologically coherent with a mix of very different policies and some big tax reform scheme.

So if a big personality like Lars Løkke Rasmussen actually founds a party in this space, he should have good chances of getting in, but not with any big amount of votes. From the discussion in the Social Liberals, you can see that there is a minor group around Lidegaard who would like them to become somewhat more centrist on immigration and pursue influence, which could move the party closer to that famous "respectable centre-right" spot. However, as it was seen, that idea was easily defeated in the Social Liberals, but perhaps a breakout is a possibility. Like back in 2007, where two Social Liberals, who wanted the party to cooperate more with the right, broke out and, along with a left-leaning Conservative, started the New Alliance, which for a while looked to be very successful.

[Diouf]

Government finds majority with DPP to ensure key election promise of lower retirement age for some groups



Mette Frederiksen's key policy in the 2019 election campaign was a proposal to lower the retirement age for some groups of workers. Now the Government has managed to find a majority for a deal with DPP, SPP and Red-Green Alliance. When the agreement enters into force in 2022, around 40 000 persons will be able to retire between 1-3 years early; a number rising to 55 000 in 2025 due to demographics. The right to retire early is based on number of years on the labour market from the age of 16 until six years before the ordinary retirement age (age 61 as retirement age will be 67 in 2022). 44 years on the labour market means you can retire 3 years early, 43 years will mean 2 years early and 42 years will mean 1 year early. Periods as unemployed or doing work life education will count as employment. Persons with high earnings in the pension system will only be able to retire on a lower benefit.

In addition to the new right to early retirement, the parties also agreed to upgrade the early retirement system for worn down workers, which was agreed in 2019 as the Løkke Rasmussen government's answer to Frederiksen's proposal. Currently you can get that benefit if you are not able to work at least 15 hours a week; now it will be 18 hours a week. Additionally, the parties agreed to finance a number of initiatives to improve work environments.

There will be no proposal to finance the deal for 2022, where the money will be taken from the current reserves. From 2023, the parties intend to finance the agreement. Some of it will come from higher taxes on companies' property value increases as well as an increased corporate tax for all financial institutions. Additionally there will be cuts to the municipal job centers. Finally DPP managed to include the idea of introducing electronic cash registers for kiosks and restaurants to reduce fraud; since the proposal is not fully developed yet, it hasn't been marked with an income. Any potential extra income from this idea will go to reduce the new tax for financial institutions and for more work environment funding.

[Diouf]

Morten Østergaard is now on sick leave after the emergence of three additional cases of sexual harassment/groping of three women in the Social Liberal party apparatus in 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively. One of them, Katrine Robsøe, became a MP at the 2019 election. 

[Diouf]

Tensions reach boiling point in Social Liberals as cannons are aimed at Carsten Nielsen

In recent days, interest in the Social Liberal groping scandal has turned towards new leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen, and whether she has been truthful about how much she, as deputy leader, knew about the cases and when. Today that escalated when MP Ida Auken made explosive allegations about the new leader.

Auken said that she back in 2017 told Carsten Nielsen about a recent case of sexual harassment by Morten Østergaard, where he had groped a young woman against her will and "tried to get her into bed with him by using unacceptable behaviour". Auken asked Carsten Nielsen to take actions against Østergaard, but Auken claimed her response was that they had acted by starting to man-mark the party leader and make him go to bed (alone) when he became too drunk. In 2018, she claims to have met Carsten Nielsen again, and said she had lost confidence in Østergaard as leader with his years of unacceptable behaviour towards women as one of the reasons. Auken says that Carsten Nielsen "without a doubt knew about Østergaard's behaviour, and chose to cover up his behaviour instead of taking the necessary action". She criticizes the new party leadership for trying to close this chapter in party history without dealing with the obvious leadership failure.

Carsten Nielsen answered back: "I'm furious about the accusations made by Ida Auken today. I wholly reject her story. I have had no knowledge of the case she's describing. Ida making those false accusations cannot be seen as anything but an attempt to destabilize the party".

So it seems hard to imagine that there won't be a schism here. When Carsten Nielsen can make such a confident rebuke, she must be quite certain of her support. So it seems likely that Auken will leave the party. And then the question is whether other MPs will follow.

[Diouf]

A polling average based on recent polls from Voxmeter, Epinion, Gallup and Yougov.
Results compared with the results from the same pollsters after the corona lockdown in March.

Social Democrats 31,1% (-2,7%)
Social Liberals 7,3% (=)
Conservatives 10,3% (+3,0%)
New Right 6,8% (+3,3%)
SPP 6,8% (=)
Vegan Party 0,8% (new)
Liberal Alliance 2,1% (=)
Christian Democrats 1,5% (new)
DPP 6,6% (-1,4%)
Hard Line 0,7% (-0,4%)
Liberals 18,0% (-2,4%)
Red-Green Alliance 6,9% (-0,6%)
The Alternative 0,8 (-0,1%)
Others 0,4% (-0,6%)

Red Bloc-ish 53,7% (-2,5%)
Blue Bloc-ish 45,9% (+3,1%)
Red Bloc-ish 95 seats (-5)
Blue Bloc-ish 80 seats (+5)


So the Social Democrats are still clearly the biggest party, but the support has faded a bit since the corona support peak. And this seem to be support flowing back towards the centre-right parties as the support for the two blocs are now getting closer to that of the 2019 election. And since wasted votes are now also present on the left with the Alternative and the Vegan Party, the Blue Bloc would actually get a seat more than in the 2019 election on this average. However, internally in the Blue Bloc there are big movements. Both the Conservatives and New Right are surging, while Liberals and DPP are in decline. Hard Line is losing its eligibility very soon, which would likely give some decimals further to the New Right. And there are increasing talks about Conservative leader Søren Pape Poulsen as a potential PM candidate. The polls are mostly conducted before the Social Liberal groping scandal, which have turned into a ugly civil war. Voters tend not to like these things, so I would expect them to take a hit in the coming polls.

[Diouf]

Copenhagen Mayor resigns after decades of sexual harassment



Just a few weeks after Social Liberal leader Morten Østergaard resigned, today another big name had to leave after a long trail of sexual harassment. Yesterday evening, Copenhagen Lord Mayor Frank Jensen delivered his intention to stay on at a bizarre press conference, shortly after a meeting where he gained support from a majority of local Social Democrat leaders. However, today Jensen announced that he is resigning from all his political posts as Lord Mayor, councillor and Social Democrat deputy leader. This suggests that the Social Democratic leadership found it untenable for him to stay on with local and regional elections in a year.

Stories of his harassment at office Christmas parties have been well-known for years, but after the recent focus on the topic, several new cases have been revealed, dating from the late 90s to last year, including against the current leader of Copenhagen Social Democrat Youth. Frank Jensen became a MP back in 1987 and became Minister of Science in 1994. In 1996 he rose to the key post as Minister of Justice in Nyrup Rasmussen government, where he stayed until the centre-left lost power in 2001. In 2005 when Social Democrat leader Mogens Lykketoft resigned after another election defeat, Frank Jensen ran against Helle Thorning-Schmidt for the leadership. Thorning edged out the victory, and Jensen decided not to run for parliament in 2007. In 2009, he became the lead candidate for the Social Democrats in the Copenhagen local elections and afterwards won the most powerful position as Lord Mayor of Copenhagen. A feat which was repeated in 2013 and 2017.

Lars Weiss, Social Democrat group leader in the Copenhagen City Council, will take over the post as Lord Mayor temporarily. The Social Democrat group will choose its new leader, who will then take over the post as Lord Mayor until next year's local election. However, it could easily be a short term solution as the group in the City Council does not necessarily have the right candidate to fight the 2021 elections, particularly as the Social Democrats are more and more under threat in Copenhagen, particularly from the Red-Green Alliance. The Social Democrats have two deputy leaders, one from parliament and one from local/regional politics, so one of their mayors will become the new deputy leader.

[Diouf]

Shock poll from Megafon for TV2.

- Social Liberals halved to 3.9% after groping scandal and leadership chaos

- Tight race between the blocs with only a narrow 50,2 - 49,3% Red lead

- New Right (10.0%) double the size of DPP (5.2%)

- Conservatives increase further to 11.3%

- Corona bounce fading for Social Democrats down to 27.9%

Tabloid Ekstra Bladet reports that Social Liberal MP Jens Rohde is investigating whether it would be possible to form a new centrist liberal party, united Lars Løkke Rasmussen + others from the soft wing of the Liberals, Rohde + Lidegaard from the Social Liberal right wing + Ammitzbøll-Bille and Egelund who recently failed with a similar project in Forward. Let's see if something ever materializes.

[Diouf]

Mink Madness puts government under pressure

The pressure is mounting on the government after revelations that it acted illegally in the Mink COVID case. On 4 November, the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration ordered that all 17 million mink in Denmark must be put down before 16 November. This was due to concerns that a mutated COVID-virus from minks could be so different as to reduce the positive effect of a COVID vaccine in Denmark. 7 municipalities with many COVID-ill mink were placed under tougher lockdown restrictions. Firstly, authorities talked up a particular COVID variant, Cluster 5, but that has not been found in humans since September, so now the argument is the general risk of mutated Mink COVID. Different scientists give different answers to how dangerous this could prove. Politically, the government's support parties tended to criticize it for not acting fast enough since COVID-ill minks have been known for months, while the Blue Bloc parties were more subdued and questioned whether the danger warranted such a radical decision.

However, this weekend it was revealed that the government does not have the legal basis to order this mass cull; it could only make that order for COVID-ill mink farms and farms close by. On Sunday, Minister of Agriculture, Mogens Jensen, said that the government knew it did not have the legal basis to order this, but did it anyway due to the urgency of the matter. Today, Mogens Jensen then changed his answer 180 degrees and said that the government was not aware of its lack of legal basis to order the killing of all minks. Mette Frederiksen repeated the latter version today, which seems understandable as Jensen's first answer would not only suggest they openly broke the law, but also likely broke the Constitution which explicitly requires a legal basis for expropriations. And most legal scholars argue that this will be deemed an expropriation, which would also mean a substantial compensation for mink farmers in Denmark. Now the question is whether we will see any actual evidence of how much the key players in government knew about the illegality of the order.

All the Blue parties have already demanded Mogens Jensen's resignation, but so far none of the Red parties have supported it, although SPP and Red-Green Alliance are calling for further investigation into the case. New Right has called a vote of no-confidence in the entire government.

The government has now proposed a legal basis which would allow the order. They asked for it to be expressed through parliament, but it seems like this won't be possible as all Blue parties does not support using the express procedure.

[Diouf]

Fock Resignation: Alternative leader quits after less than a year in charge



Less than ten months after a contentious leadership election which ended up splitting the party, the Alternative is now headed for a new leadership election. Josephine Fock has stepped down as leader of the troubled green party. She says, "I have laid all my love in the Alternative, but it has been too difficult to unite the party". While the party has dropped far below the threshold in opinion polls, I at least thought that they were now fairly united after Elbæk and his gang left the party. But apparently there are still divisions in the membership.

The party's only remaining MP, Torsten Gejl, has already said that he will not stand for leader as he is too busy doing all the party's parliamentary work. The party's is already in deep troubles with 1% or less in most polls, and at least one new direct rival, the Vegan Party. I'm not entirely sure who are actually still members of the party, and thereby leadership candidates, after the exodus of former and current MPs. In the last leadership election, the strategy of the relationship towards the government played a significant role with Fock aiming for a closer bond to the Social Democrat government. This could perhaps be up for discussion again, although it seems that the party is in quite deep problems, no matter the strategy.

[Diouf]

Mogens Jensen resigns after mink debacle



Mogens Jensen, Minister for Food, Fishery, Equality & Minister for Nordic Cooperation, today resigned after his handling of the order to kill all mink. The support parties no longer had confidence in him after a report from his own Ministry showed that Jensen already received information in mid-September about the lack of a legal basis for an order to kill all mink. The same information was mentioned in a government document for a 1 October meeting with six key ministers, but the aspect does not seem to have been discussed at the meeting. There is also severe criticism of the head of the ministry, who was clearly informed about the illegality of the order on the day the order had been made, but only told the minister three days later.

Blue Bloc claims the rot goes to the top and want the whole government to resign. However, the support parties are satisfied with Jensen resigning. Now the question is how big an investigation the support parties will want into the process; the Blue Bloc parties are of going for the most exhaustive option possible.

On Monday, the Red Bloc parties agreed on a law which will make the killing of all mink legal. There are still negotiations on-going about the financial support for mink farms and associated businesses.

[Diouf]

Mini-reshuffle announced to replace Mogens Jensen



Today, Mette Frederiksen announced an expected mini-reshuffle after Mogens Jensen's resignation yesterday. Jensen's unorthodox portfolio of Food, Fishery, Equality & Nordic Cooperation is divided out between others. Peter Hummelgaard, Minister of Employment, gets the Equality add-on to his title. The ministry of Food and Environment, which has had two ministers, is split up into two different ministries. Lea Wermelin is now the sole minister in the Ministry of Environment, while Rasmus Prehn (right in the picture), hitherto Minister for Development Cooperation, becomes the new Minister for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries. Finally, Flemming Møller Mortensen (left in the picture) is a new face in the cabinet as Minister of Development Cooperation and Nordic Cooperation. Møller Mortensen has been a MP for Northern Jutland since 2007. He was a nurse and then a charge nurse for a couple of years before entering the pharmaceutical industry. He was a salesperson at AstraZeneca and then Head of Sales at Novartis before becoming a MP.

[Diouf]

Conservative MP leaves party amid handling of sexual harassment allegations



Conservative MP Orla Østerby today decided to leave the party to become independent. He states that its due to the party's handling of the sexual harassment allegations against him. In October, Østerby had all his spokesperson roles withdrawn after allegations of sexual harassment by fellow Conservative MP Brigitte Jerkel. Østerby had already had clashed with the leadership of the party previously when he criticized another fellow Conservative MP Mette Abildgaard for her stunt of bringing her baby into the parliamentary chamber.

[Diouf]

Has the overtone window on immigration policy shifted since the new goverment got into power and the Virus hit ?

No, I don't think there have really been much change since the election. The shift was in the previous term, where the Social Democrats full-fledgedly entered the same position as the Liberals on immigration; a very tough rhetoric and the toughest policies possible which respect international conventions. Deals on immigration, police and justice will often still have the core of the Social Democrats + the Blue Bloc parties. Then the government will have to make minor concessions in negotiations; like opening for quota refugees.

[Diouf]

Majority parties agree on Budget 2021 - including several green deals



Yesterday, the government finalized an agreement with the Social Liberals, SPP, Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative on the 2021 Budget. The parties have had a significant focus on green issues in the promotion of the budget. The parties agreed to spend 888 million DKK from 2021-2024 on a big nature package with the introduction of 13 new national parks as well as a significant increase of the "untouched nature" areas. The parties also agreed a plan with the aim to get 770.000 "green cars" on the roads in 2030. It is mainly based on lower fees for the green cars, and higher fees for fossil fuel cars plus a new road toll for lorries. Also the parties will work for the possibility in EU law for a ban on fossil fuel cars in 2030. Additionally, but unrelated to the Budget, a few days ago a broad political alliance with the government, Liberals, DPP, Social Liberals, SPP and Conservatives agreed to stop oil extraction in the North Sea in 2050 at the latest, although in practice oil extraction past that date might not have been very profitable anyway.

The Budget deal also includes additional funds for elderly care, starting minimum pedagogue quotas in nurseries and kindergartens from 2024 instead of 2025, rolling back parts of the planned cuts for the state broadcaster DR, taking 500 quota refugees in 2021 and increased funding of high schools, social and health care educations and vocational educations. There is very little on funding, but it seems mostly to be based on deficit spending (either directly or via unused funds from Covid help packages) and funds from the new EU recovery facility.

[Diouf]

Critical commission report creates dilemma for two major parties



Today an investigative commission released a critical report about Inger Støjberg's handling of the seperation of under-age asylum seeker spouses in her term as Minister of Immigration. Støjberg is deputy leader of the Liberals, and one of the most well-known, popular and divisive politician in the country, particularly due to her strong views on immigration. In 2019, she received 28 420 personal votes, the 4th highest in the country. Støjberg was Minister of Immigration from 2015-2019, and the investigative commission has looked closer at her actions in February 2016. Back then she announced in a press release that all asylum seeker spouses under the age of 18 should be seperated from their over-18 spouses. However, international conventions dictate that there should be case-by-case judgment of the cases; not a blanket ban on sub-18 asylum seekers lliving with their older spouses.

The investigative commission was established shortly after the 2019 general election. The Blue Bloc parties had refused such an investigation, but the Red Bloc decided to go ahead with it after the majority changed. Today the commission concluded that Støjberg's press release in February 2016 was illegal, that she was orally warned that a blanket ban could not legally happen, that she externally and internally in the Ministry said she wanted a blanket ban, that it should have been clear for her that there was a significant risk that the relevant authorities would administrate based on her press release, and that this illegal administration happened from February to July 2016. Støjberg herself has referred to an internally approved Ministry note, which seems to accept a case-by-case judgment, as what she expected to be the basis of the authorities' administration, and that it was "political communication" when she made the clear statements on the ban in public without mentioning the case-by-case method.

Now the question is what consequence parliament will take after the critical report. The New Right and DPP has been clear in their support of Støjberg and again today cheered on her handling of the case. The non-Social Democrat left has been vocal about how serious they see the criticism of Støjberg. I believe that only the three ex-Alternative independents have already stated that Støjberg should be impeached, but it would be very surprising if not all non-Social Democrat parties in the Red Bloc ends up with that conclusion shortly. Then the question is about the remaining parties. The Conservatives and Liberal Alliance have been very quite today, which suggests that their backing of Støjberg is less certain. Both groups certainly have sections, who would very much prefer to join in DPP and New Right's choir, and the leadership of both parties are probably very aware of how popular Støjberg is among centre-right voters. On the other hand, certain members have talked strongly about the rule of law and mght be able to benefit electorally if there is a sense of scandal around the Liberals.

And then of course, it is crucial what the Social Democrats and Liberals decide to do; the two parties have 90 seats and thereby a majority together. Again several aspects are in play. One is the general issue of immigration policy, where the Social Democrats have done so much to move towards the right on immigration. Will they then risk that by impeaching Støjberg, who claim to have simply saved young innocent girls from their old forced-marriage husbands? Also the recent mink scandal seems very similar with illegal actions by at least Mogens Jensen and perhaps other ministers as well, so a vote to impeach could make it harder to protect their own ministers, although they might expect to hold onto power for the five years until those cases are legally out of date. You would think the Liberals would just back Støjberg unconditionally, but she is also somewhat controversiel inside the party. In 1993, when Conservative Erik Ninn-Hansen was impeached (and later sentenced) for his actions as Minister of Justice, the Conservative (and Liberal) group was divided and ended up with a free vote and 7 Conservative and 7 Liberal MPs joining the left-wing and the small centrist parties in voting for impeachment. However, back then all the traditional parties had much more lenient immigration policies, so that aspect, which seems important today, had little effect back then. I'm really not sure about how it will end, but I will probably lean towards no impeachment.