Danish Elections and Politics

[Diouf]

Liberal Alliance announces that they support impeachment of Støjberg!
Quite a blow for Støjberg despite the party only having 3 MPs. With a Blue Bloc party supporting impeachment, it should become quite a lot easier for Social Democrats to support it without much criticism. And maybe a indication that Conservatives and/or Liberals could end up with at least a free vote.

[Diouf]

Social Liberals, the sole Alternative MP and independent Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille have all, as expected, come out for impeachment. The other parties are taking legal counsel about the commission report, and what the options and likelyhoods for sentencing will be in the special court after a potential impeachment. The remaining parties are expected to announce their position in early January.

The special court, which would adjudicate after impeachment, consists of 30 persons. 15 judges from the Supreme Court, and 15 persons appointed by the parties proportionally. After the 2019 election, the Red Bloc parties have appointed 8, while the Blue Bloc parties have appointed 7. Many are former MPs or MEPs, prominent lawyers, or people with some legal background and a position in the party's administraton or important committees.

[Diouf]

A graph of the polling in 2020 by Erik Gahner Larsen for politologi.dk.
The Social Democrat got their big corona boom, which then slowly faded until october/november, where they rebounded as cases started rising faster and restrictions tightened again.

More or less steady decline for the Liberals. The party's divides are shining through on many questions with Ellemann largely seen as a weak leader, who a number of times has had the unfortunate combination of initial cosmopolitan leanings on issues before being put in his place by the more nationalconservative and agricultural part of the party base. The potential Støjberg impeachment has all the potential to divide the party further. The politicization of covid amid the mink scandal also didn't help as other Blue Bloc parties attacked harder, while Social Democrats lambasted them for risking public health by not unconditionally supporting the mink slaughter.

The minor Blue Bloc parties have largely gained from the Liberal challenges. The Conservatives are now solidly bigger than the other mid-sized parties, and their increase means that rumblings about Pape as PM candidate continue. New Right has rocketed up into mid-sized status as DPP continues to struggle and Vermund's clear and uncompromising style has brought in much support. Even the Liberal Alliance, in recent months, have moved a bit away from the 2% threshold abyss.  

[Diouf]

The war has begun in the Liberals. On Sunday, Jakob Ellemann-Jensen said in an interview that if the legal counsel agrees that there is evidence enough for impeachment, the Liberals would support impeachment: "We are a party of law and order, and the law should be abided by. That is true for everybody. That is true for the PM in the mink scandal, and for us here. I won't do a horse-trade, where the Liberals and the Social Democrats agree to protect each other from impeachment". The Ekstra Bladet newspaper today announced that Ellemann asked Støjberg to step down as deputy leader in a meeting shortly before Christmas eve, but that Støjberg refused. Støjberg has responded to Ellemann's interview by saying: "I'm very surprised. I didn't know he would do that interview, and I completely disagree with his conclusion". It is hard to see them continue to co-exist as the leadership of the party, and perhaps Støjberg would even leave the party if her MP colleagues vote to impeach her and want her gone as deputy leader.

[Diouf]

Støjberg forced to resign as deputy leader

After a meeting in the Liberal executive committee yesterday evening, Inger Støjberg was forced to resign as deputy leader of the party. Ellemann got support from a majority of the committee to make Støjberg resign. In a public comment, Ellemann stated that: "Our partnership simply does not work any longer. We have been humming different tunes for quite a while now. It is untenable with the party being in a situation, where the leader cannot lead with support from his deputy leader."
Støjberg seemed to suggest that she was considering leaving the party this morning, when she said that she "needed to think things over" to a question about whether she would stay in the party.

Prominent Liberal MPs like Kristian Jensen and Ellen Trane Nørby as well as a number of mayors have come out in support of Ellemann's decision, but in also seems clear that there is a significant Støjberg-wing. MP Hans Christian Schmidt has stated his support for Støjberg, and yesterday a mail from MP Thomas Danielsen to the rest of the party was leaked. Danielsen here states that "our party has now in public made it clear that we are no longer the party of both truck mechanics from Western Jutland (Danielsen's own background) and lawyers from Frederiksberg (the background of the most socialliberal MP in the Liberals, Jan E. Jørgensen). Our so-called leadership must believe that this will benefit us. Let's hope there are enough lawyers in Frederiksberg..."

[Diouf]

Lars Løkke Rasmussen leaves the Liberals



The Liberals have certainly not had a calm Christmas time, and tonight another bomb exploded in the crisis-ridden party. Former PM and Liberal leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen has announced that he is leaving the party after 40 years' membership. Løkke says that he wants cooperation around the political centre, where politics can be free from the demands of the furthest right and left wings. The right wing is making ultimate demands about extreme measures on immigration, and the left wing making similar pressures for extreme rises in state expenses. Løkke makes this mission statement:"We need to release ourselves from the politics of symbolic measures, professionalized communication and ultimative demands. Denmark should be freer, richer, fairer and more sustainable. We need to make constant adjustments to ensure we get quality for our tax money, that it pays to work and that we take care of the weakest. We are open to immigrants who can and want to contribute, and need to be tough against those who won't. We should transition our country to a green and sustainable future without destroying our ability to compete on international markets. We need to have the confidence to engage fully in international cooperation". Løkke also emphasizes the method of negotiations and compromises in the political centre instead of parties having to cater to the furthest wings of politics.

Ever since he was ousted as party leader, there have been rumours about Løkke making his own new centrist party. However, there haven't been any concrete steps taken, and many wondered whether he would leave politics completely. He says now that he will continue as a MP. It will be interesting to see in the coming days whether it seems like a new party is on its way, and whether he has gained other prominent supporters. There have been speculation about specific MPs from the right-wing of the Social Liberals and the left-wing of the Liberals.

Løkke was leader of the Liberal Youth 1986-1989, he was a councillor in his local municipality Græsted-Gilleleje from 1985-1997 and deputy mayor in the last three of these years, he was a regional mayor in Frederiksborg from 1998-2001, he has been a MP since 1994, Minister of Health and the Interior from 2001-2007, Minister of Finance 2007-2009, Prime Minister 2009-2011 and 2015-2019, deputy leader of the Liberals from 1998-2009 and leader of the Liberals from 2009-2019.

[Diouf]

The parties have received their legal counsel about the Støjberg potential impeachment case. As expected, SPP and the Red-Green Alliance was quick to join the Alternative, Social Liberals and Liberal Alliance + 4 independents (3 ex-Alternative + 1 ex-LA)  in favour of impeachment. The DPP and New Right are against. And then we still wait for the big players, Social Democrats, Liberals and Conservatives + 2 independents (Løkke + ex-Conservative). They are expected to make an announcement within the next week.

Lars Løkke Rasmussen today announced that he has started a so-called "political network" on a new homepage. When asked what the point of such a network is, he said: "It is a meeting place. If I was younger, I might call it a movement. It is an attempt to get into direct contact with Danes, who have the same basic values as me. You should join the network if you can see yourself in the values I have announced". When asked whether the network will evolve into a new party, he answered: "Maybe, but that fully depends on the level of interest. My sense is that many believe that we need to look at politics from a new angle. If enough people agree, that might lead to a new party".

[Diouf]

A "network". Cringe.
Next he will say that his movement is "not left, not right, but forward".
This is basically the template for "somebody starts an outfit they think is the next En Marche".

Yes, the Macron template is one, several politicians have tried leaning into. We of course had an attempt to establish a party literally called Forward by independent MP Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille, and the Social Liberals have used clear references to En Marche in their adverts for a while.
Løkke is also trying to build a new centrist vehicle, but surely he is much more defined as a politician with his long track-record as centre-right party leader and PM than Macron was.

First poll after Christmas by Voxmeter has Liberals down at 13.9%, but without significant rises for the other Blue Bloc parties. Conservatives "only" at 10.5%. So in this poll, it looks like a lot of Liberal voters have jumped on the fence, but not decided for another party. But we will see whether other polls paint the same picture

[Diouf]

Five candidates have announced a run for leader of the Alternative.

By far the most prominent of them is Franciska Rosenkilde, the current Mayor of Culture and Leisure in Copenhagen. Rosenkilde was elected a Copenhagen councillor in 2017 with 1 893 personal votes, and after Niko Grünfeld had to resign in 2018, she was chosen as the party's new Mayor of Culture and Leisure.
Another candidate who is slightly known is Troels Jakobsen; the former head of the Alternative Copenhagen association. While many Alternative candidates focus on green issues, he has focused most on his attention on job centers. As a playwriter, he once made a play about the treatment of unemployed in job centers, and he has talked extensively about his own experiences as unemployed. However, his very outspoken style has also created some conflicts; he was criticized for his nasty campaign against the former Social Liberal Mayor of Employment and Integration, and was very scornful of the Alternative party leadership, when they chose the Culture mayorship over the Employment and Integration one. Jakobsen was a candidate for councillor in Copenhagen in 2017, winning 754 votes. It was not enough to be elected, but after a number of retirements, he will now serve the last months of the term as a Copenhagen councillor.
The three remaining candidates are Jan Kristoffersen, a Deloitte consultant, who won 2 417 votes nationwide as a European Parliament candidate in 2019, Thor Clasen Jonasen, an assistant professor in Aarhus who won 203 personal votes when running as a candidate for councillor there in 2017 and Thomas Due Nielsen, who has been a part of the local party board in Randers.

The five candidates now have to get 100 signatures from party members in order for them to finalize their candidature before the extraordinary party congress on 7 February. Rosenkilde and Jakobsen have already collected the 100 signatures, while the other three candidates have yet to reach that threshold. The former two looks like the big favourites for the party leadership, but whoever wins have a difficult job on their hands.

[Diouf]

Lars Løkke will vote against impeaching his former minister Inger Støjberg. He says" A united parliament should adopt a criticism of Støjberg and her giving wrong information to parliament, but an impeachment will set the future barrier for such cases far too low". It sounds like Social Democrats, Liberals and Conservatives could make their decision tomorrow.

Liberal Alliance leader Alex Vanopslagh is suffering from stress, so will play a lesser role in the coming months.

[Diouf]

The Conservatives also ended up supporting impeachment, and apparently not even with freedom for individual members, so hard core Støjberg supporters Marcus Knuth and Naser Khader will apparently vote for impeaching her!
Independent Orla Østerby also for impeachment.
The Liberals is for impeachment, but has made it a free vote. 9 Liberals MPs (incl. Støjberg) will vote against impeachment. Støjberg called Ellemann's decision to go for impeachment "the biggest declaration of no confidence one can get from one's own party leader" and that she was "disappointed that it's my own leader who has invited the rest of parliament to impeach me" with reference to his public comments in the Christmas holiday. So it doesn't exactly sound like someone who would love staying in the party; it wouldn't be surprising to see her leave the party or perhaps continue to rile up the rhetoric until she is suspended or thrown out.

The timeline for the special court case will be clearer in the coming days. The expectation today seems that the court might start the case in Q3 of 2021, and then make its decision around December.

[Diouf]

YouGov poll for BT with Liberals at 9.2%, behind New Right on 11.8% and Conservatives on 12.9%. DPP is up to 8%, so combined the Blue parties are actually up to 81 seats (+2 compared to 2019 election), and that's even in a poll where they don't count seats to Christian Democrats on 1,9%, which is very likely to be enough for them to win seats.

Voxmeter's weekly poll is less bad for Liberals (13,0%), but much worse overall for the Blue parties. Very little of the Liberal decline goes to other parties, so combined the Blue parties only have 72 seats.
So it seems like two quite different ways of distributing doubting Liberal 2019 voters.

[Diouf]

The YouGov poll looks really really bad for the Liberals, their worst result ever if it materialized. Could Jakob Ellemann-Jensen be toppled over the abysmal polling?

Also, doesn't Voxmeter usually overestimate the Red Bloc? Their last poll in 2019 had it on 58% and they were the only pollster to predict a Red government in 2015.

Right now it's the perfect storm for the Liberals with Løkke leaving and Støjberg maybe leaving, and tearing in to the party from both sides. I think a majority in the party, both among MPs and the local association representatives, is hoping for some calm now and support Ellemann firmly for the moment. A minority of Støjberg supporters would probably like for him to go. But the question is how quickly the Støjberg situation will be resolved, and whether Liberals will rebound once/if has been resolved. If they remain below 15% for a sustained time and gets hammered in the local and regional elections in November, there will likely be serious questions marks about his position.

Below is the average deviation per party for the final poll in the 2019 election. Here YouGov were by some distance furthest away from the final result, largely due to them overestimating both DPP, New Right and Hard Line. But you are right that Voxmeter generally have better results for the Red bloc parties. They had them favoured in the 2015 election, but clearly underestimated especially DPP. They did indeed have the Red Bloc on 58,8% two days before the 2019 election, but I looked in the polling collection, and they actually saved themselves somewhat by a final poll on the day before the election where the Red Bloc parties "only" got 55%. Which is why their result below does not look that poor. To their defense, there probably was a lot of doubters, although it should have been visible that it was primarily 2015 Blue voters, who broke late and mostly for Liberals and Conservatives.

[Diouf]

On Sunday, there is an online extraordinary party congress in the Liberals to elect their new deputy leader. However, there's only one candidate running for the position, Stephanie Lose, the leader of the South Denmark region and leader of the Association of Regions. Lose's elections as deputy leader signals a shift in how the position is used. In recent decades, the position has been for a high ranking member of the parliamentary party who aims for the leader position. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Kristian Jensen and Inger Støjberg have been the recent deputy leaders. However, due to the intense disagreements between leader and deputy leader in recent years, the party is now choosing someone from the local/regional part of the party without immediate national ambitions. So a shift towards a similar model as the Social Democrats, where a mayor/regional leader is deputy leader alongside a less influential member of the parliamentary group.
There won't be much excitement about the election of Lose, but instead many are eagerly awaiting the speech by Inger Støjberg, who is scheduled to give a 10 minute speech at the congress. Will she continue to spew fire towards Ellemann and make hints toward her political future?

In other news, there have been a minor reshuffle of ministerial responsibilities. Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke cedes responsibility of Elderly policy to Astrid Krag, now Minister of Social and Elderly affairs, whose sycophantic tendencies caused one political commentator to remark that "she will now have to share her time equally between Elderly policy, Social policy and intense praise of the Prime Minister on all social media". Finally, Kaare Dybvad takes over responsibility of planning, local affairs, elections and some municipial cooperation from Astrid Krag. Dybvad is now Minister of Housing and the Interior. So a promotion for Dybvad, who is expected to play a more prominent role in the plans of promoting more equality betweenthe different areas of the country. Heunicke gets more time to focus on all things covid, while many of the major municipial welfare areas are now united for Krag.

[Diouf]

One of the most influential and well-known Liberal mayors, Lars Krarup from Herning, warns the Liberals that it should avoid becoming a "Social Liberal light" party on the eve of the party's extraordinary congress. Lars Krarup have been mayor in Herning since 2002, and has often played a big role in the party, f.ex. when he helped Løkke stay as leader at the party congress in 2014, where it was expected Løkke would resign or be pushed out. In the interview, Krarup goes against the official Liberal line that it is Støjberg, who has been illoyal and the reason for the internal trouble, by saying repeatedly that Ellemann and Støjberg carries an equal responsibility for the problems in the party. Krarup then goes on to state his agreement with Thomas Danielsen, the MP who in a leaked e-mail said the party's decisions was appealing to the lawyers of Frederiksberg, not the truck mechanics of Western Jutland. While Krarup says the impeachment case was handled as it should be, he says "it shouldn't be so that everyone without Social Liberal tendencies should be stoned". He warns that the party is becoming a small party, and that they shouldn't listen to the voices who want the party to become a "Social Liberal light" party. He says Ellemann should look to the Anders Fogh model, embrace the welfare state and be tough on immigration.

And now tabloid Ekstra Bladet is reporting that the Social Liberal leadership believe their MP Jens Rohde will leave the party shortly! Not a dull moment in Danish politics these days.

[Diouf]

While Krarup says the impeachment case was handled as it should be, he says "it shouldn't be so that everyone without Social Liberal tendencies should be stoned".

Random question, but did use the word Radikal or are you translating it literally? Is the Danish equivalent of "social-liberal" used as an ideological descriptor? More broadly, what connotations does the word "liberal" have in Denmark? Like, do Social Liberals or Liberal Alliance or, say, New Right explicitly talk about themselves as liberal in some sense?

He used the word radikal in both instances.
"En ting er, om der skal rejses en rigsretssag mod Inger Støjberg. Jeg synes, formanden har håndteret den sag, som han skulle. Men derfor behøver det jo ikke være sådan, at hvis vi ikke alle sammen har småradikale tendenser, så skal vi stenes. Sådan skal det ikke være"

"Jeg må så også bare sige til nogle af dem, der har travlt med at hjælpe med at forme Venstre lige nu, at man skal passe på med at gøre partiet til sådan et radikalt light parti, fortæller Lars Krarup. Han udtaler ordet ’hjælpe’ på en måde, så man forstår, at det nok ikke skal forstås bogstaveligt."

I think socialliberal is a fairly normal ideological descriptor in Denmark. So in a neutral analysis, you could often come across that term for describing the Radikale/Social Liberal party as well as tendencies within other parties. I think, they could easily use that term in the Social Liberals themselves along with humanist, green etc. When centre-right politicians or commentators use Radikal to describe tendencies within a centre-right party that is often used in a pejorative sense, which is of course also the case here. A slightly less bad version is storbyliberal(cityliberal). About the Liberals, there has also often been talk about højskoleVenstre(folk high school Liberals) vs. handelshøjskoleVenstre (business school Liberals).

And yes, liberal is fairly common term, which the parties can easily use about themselves. Normally, it will probably mostly be Liberals and Liberal Alliance, who will use it to describe themselves, their party and their policies. So meaning policies where economic policies lean towards lower taxes and lower public spending, and free choice in the public sector etc. And as a fairly standard descriptor of one's basic view, like conservative, social democrat or socialist. Conservatives and New Right will probably more use the term borgerlig when talking about f.ex. tax cut and general economic policy. If the left wing parties would use, it would probably mostly be in a term like liberale frihedsrettigheder, which is basically freedom rights or human rights.

[Diouf]

Støjberg ended her speech at the extraordinary congress with another tease: "The values the Liberals have held high in all these years. The values I've grown up with. The values I will always fight for. No matter where I am, and no matter what happens". The speech focused on Støjberg's history in the party with a strong emphasis on how real of a Liberal she was, and how she was in sync with the people in Jutland and says things like they are, even though the politically correct persons in Copenhagen, including the media, don't like it. She also stated there can never be a Liberal-led government based on the Social Liberals, it requires 90 borgerlige(Blue) seats to get such a government. Therefore, she also emphaiszes the need for strong bonds, politically and personally, to the other Blue parties. In a short interview afterwards, Støjberg said that she is still considering her future.

[Diouf]

Jens Rohde leaves Social Liberals - can't live with their activism and identity politics



Today MP Jens Rohde announced that he is leaving the Social Liberals. He argues that the party has moved away from a centrist, pragmatic and holistic approach to politics in favour of a position of never-ending activist campaigning. Rohde was one of the MPs who voted for Martin Lidegaard to lead the party after Morten Østergaard's #meetoo fall from grace. Lidegaard similarly argued for a more centrist position, so the party could return to its traditional, influential role in the centre of Danish politics. The current party leadership leaked his departure early to Ekstra Bladet, and claims Rohde is impossible to work with. They also say that Rohde has continued to work on an independent media policy despite being told repeatedly that the party was not in favour of his idea of introducing a new media tax in order to give existing media a big boost in state support due to the tough competition from big tech.

In his resignation post on Facebook, Rohde says that the party has lost its pragmatic roots. He mentions climate policy as an example, where he states that not every Dane can cycle to work, even if you hammer the car industry with green taxes: "People won't start living green, just because you make them insolvent". Similarly, he says he won't participate in throwing Danish agriculture under the bus as it's one of the greenest agricultural industries in the World. On #metoo, he believes the party has gone all-in on a style of feminism, which violates standard rule of law principles. Finally on immigration, he says the party has moved into a no-mans land by placing itself in its own corner of the World: "Even the New Right is more likely to end up in a government than the Social Liberals". He warns the party against becoming an activist Greta Thunberg party with prayer meetings. There is a need for a substantial center, which builds up instead of tearing down.

Jens Rohde was a MP for the Liberals from 1998-2006, and after the centre-right victory in 2001, he was a prominent face as the political spokesperson for the biggest government party. He was elected a MEP in 2009 for the Liberals, and re-elected in 2014. In 2014, he played a significant role in the revolt against Lars Løkke. He publicly critized Løkke for his expenses scandals and said that he would never lent Løkke the keys to his house. He also said that Løkke was leading the party on a DPP light strategy, and that it would be better if Kristian Jensen replaced him. Therefore, he was of course quite unhappy when Løkke survived. In late 2015, Rohde left the Liberals due to concerns over the tough immigration policies and their increased EU-scepticism; instead he joined the Social Liberals. He was elected a MP for the Social Liberals in the Copenhagen multi-member constituency in 2019.

Rohde's analysis of the World sounds eerily similar to that of Løkke, but as mentioned above, they have not had the best relationship historically. So despite the similarities in goal and analysis, it would be surprising to see them together. Could he return to the Liberals then? As long as Støjberg, who is funnily Rohde's ex-girlfriend from the early days in youth politics, is still in the party, it is hard to imagine. But if she and others from the tough on immigration wing leaves, I would think he will find Ellemann's leadership inspiring. Then the question is whether Ellemann really wants to send that signal by allowing Rohde back into the party, as Ellemann currently protests quite loudly against any notion that he is not in favour of a tough immigration policy.

[Diouf]

Agreement reached on mink compensation

Tonight the government made an agreement with the Liberals, Social Liberals, SPP and Liberal Alliance to compensate the mink industry which has been outlawed in Denmark for a couple of years amid a covid-mutation scare in the fall. The total cost of the compensation is expected to be the heavy fee of between 15.6-18.8 billion DKK. The direct compensation for the slaughtered mink is expected to be 1.8-2.8 billion DKK, and then 8.9 billion DKK will go to cover the loss of potential future income until 2030 + cover debt. 3-4 billion DKK will go to the related industry, i.e. fodder companies, fur manufacturers etc. Finally 1.5-2.7 billion DKK will go to cover the costs of tearing down the farmers' mink related buildings. The the deal also includes some minor issues of 50 million DKK to new forests and to increase the use of organic food plus 250 million DKK for a month more where unemployed's persons benefits does not count towards the two year maximum where you can get unemployment benefits. This sounds like issues SPP got into the deal to agree it and ensure such a broad deal.

The Red-Green Alliance thinks the deal is too expensive, the Conservatives, DPP and New Right think a bigger effort should have been made to make it possible to re-start the mink industry at some point instead of paying compensation. The original order to the mink farmers to slaugther all mink was illegal. It immediately meant that the relevant minister Mogens Jensen had to resign, and an investigative commission will soon start to look further into the decision, and whether one or more ministers, including Mette Frederiksen, could have committed impeachable offences.

[Diouf]

Ida Auken leaves Social Liberals - join Social Democrats



After being on sick leave with stress since April 2020, MP Ida Auken today returned to parliament with a bang as she announced she's leaving the Social Liberals and joining the Social Democrats. Auken was, like Rohde, a supporter of Martin Lidegaard in the leadership election. Her explanation for leaving the Social Liberals is also similar to that of Rohde. Auken states that "When I joined the Social Liberals seven years ago, I knew the party as a pragmatic, resultoriented party. My experience is that the Social Liberals have moved away from that approach, and therefore also moved away from the center of Danish politics". Auken won 21.733 personal votes in the Copenhagen constituency in 2019, the tenth highest in the country and the most of any Social Liberal.

Ida Auken started her career in SPP, where her mother Margrethe Auken is still a prominent member and long-time MEP. She was elected a MP in 2007 and was a part of the many young talents surging in a SPP, that was on its way to become ready for government. She became Minister of Environment in 2011. However, SPP had its problems in handling government responsibility. In 2014, when the party melted down, many of the young generation left the SPP to join the Social Democrats. However, Auken was not really a part of that "workerite" line of thinking, which many of these SPPers had made mainstream in the party and brought into the Social Democrats. Instead, Auken's focus has always been climate and environment, which is probably why she as the only prominent SPP defector joined Social Liberals instead.

So now, seven years later, she does end up in the Social Democrats. In some sense, Auken has been a bit unlucky. She joined the Social Liberals only a few months before the departure of their leader Margrethe Vestager, who had been quite moderate in her appearance and with an extreme focus on economic responsibility and centrist compromises. The new leadership with Morten Østergaard and Sofie Carsten Nielsen has led the party more along an activist way with a lot of focus on lenint immigration policies, and thereby away from the political middle. Ironically, SPP has moved the other way and has moved very close to Social Democrats as a very loyal and responsible support party. I actually think she would be a better fit for the current SPP than the Social Democrats; my feeling is not that she is on the Social Democrat line on immigration and probably would prefer the somewhat more ambitious climate policies in SPP. But a return would probably be too weird, and while SPP could get ministerial jobs again, the Social Democrats is of course a safer bet if you should have that ambition.

Quite a hit for the Social Liberals with two prominent defections in a week. And the obvious question is whether defeated leadership candidate Martin Lidegaard will follow suit now that two of his strongest supporters have given up and left the party. It will be interesting to see whether the Social Liberals will continue the more vote-maximizing style of activist and far-left immigration policies, or whether defections like these makes the leadership re-consider and steer back towards a policy which you could enter government with.

[Diouf]

That's weird I thought the social liberals were an economically centerist party with pro-busniesss immigration stance, what exactly is so radical about their stance on immigration ? and how is it getting them votes ?

Yes, they want to significantly increase the influx of foreign labour, but they also want to loosen immigration/refugee policy significantly. Things like participating in the EU distribution of refugees, increase the UN quota refugees, increase benefits for newly arrived migrants, take back Danish citizens from the ISIS camps, let refused asylum seekers with children live outside deportation centres, turn back the so-called paradigm shift which aimed to get refugees to return home by giving temporary refugee status, make it easier to get Danish citizenship etc.

In the 2019 campaign, they also were perhaps the party which focused the most on Rasmus Paludan's Hard Line. As other parties mostly ignored his antics, Social Liberals were eager to act as their counterparts. The lenient immigration policies certainly have an audience, especially among younger, urban voters, but they have made the party toxic for the average voter. This was why the Social Democrats were so adamant that they weren't going to get into a coalition with them, and why it's not a positive thing when Ellemann is seen by some as a semi-Social Liberal. The lenient immigration politicis also helped the party massively increase its vote shared in the most immigrant-heavy areas:

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2019-06-07-radikale-stormer-frem-i-landets-ghetto-omraader

[Diouf]

A couple of questions:

First, aren’t the Social Liberals actually a bit down in the polls at the moment from their previous election result? I know this far out polls might not mean too much, but do you think they are actually going to see an upsurge in support? I could imagine that being unapologetically pro-immigration could carve themselves out a nice electoral niche with votes from both young cosmopolitan types and immigrant communities.

Politologi.dk recently published this chart of their polling since February 2020. Their polling was mostly at, or slightly below, their 8.6% result from 2019. They actually had a little peak going on, perhaps getting some Alternative votes after the party imploded. But then with corona, they lost a bit of ground as Social Democrats surged. However, they were stable and seen to be doing pretty well. Until the #metoo scandal around Morten Østergaard blew up, and he was dramatically forced to resign. The party halved over night. It has then rebounded around half of that drop, but the recent unrest has seen them starting to fall again.
I don't think I would expect a surge from the 8.6% in a World without the #metoo scandal. But the 8.6% was a really good result, and very close to be enough for being the third biggest party. And yes, I do indeed see that combination as a quite fruitful niche to follow. For vote-maximizing that could be a good coalition, but since the views of these voters are generally far away from the median voter, it means that their chances of government is much reduced. And Social Liberals have historically prided themselves as the responsible government party. Jens Rohde said that New Right has a bigger chance of a joining a government now than Social Liberals, which might be slightly hyperbolic, but not much.

Secondly, how common is party switching in Denmark compared to other countries? Ida Auken’s ride through three parties is quite something.

I don't have any good overview of the numbers or comparison to other countries. This period has been very hectic in that regard so far, probably even more than the hectic 2007-2011 and 2011-2015 sessions. But there have also been terms like 2015-2019, or the 2001-2007 period, where I don't believe there were many swtiches. I think party switches would certainly be more likely in fair, proportional systems as there will be several parties in parliament, and the distance between some of them won't be that big, as opposed to two-party systems where a party switch would be a huge move. Additionally, the open-list system, which all but Red-Green Alliance use, might also lead to more party switching. In closed list systems (Italy probably exception), the party leadership should be able to reward loyalty, while in open-list systems, it will be more likely with MPs from different fractions, especially in the traditional parties where local member organizations can decide who runs. Finally, a 2% threshold also means that many switchers, and certainly prominent ones like Uffe Elbæk or Lars Løkke Rasmussen, could realistically see themselves build a succesful start-up.

[Diouf]

Inger Støjberg leaves the Liberals

After weeks of open warfare with Jakob Ellemann and the rest of the Liberal leadership, Inger Støjberg today announced that she's leaving the Liberals. Støjberg said that "The Liberal leadership is swiftly moving away from the values for which I have always fought, and which the party used to represent". She warns that the World will soon face another giant wave of migration, which requires a tougher policy on immigration, including considering how to deal with the UN conventions. She states that this cannot be done with Ellemann as leader, and that she does not think he will become PM. She sends another love letter to the Liberal rank-and-file by saying that the Liberal base still is a robust bunch with the right values, and that it is the Christiansborg-Liberals that has made her leave. She also criticizes the party's support for proposing CO2 taxes, which will hurt Danish agriculture and small businesses. This will destroy the balance between cities and rural areas. On #metoo, she says the party leadership has become crazy and lives in a Copenhagen media world, where a awkward flirt 20 years ago can cost a man his job. "I might be the first woman losing her position due to #metoo", she says.

Interesting to follow the development. Will any of the 8 Liberal MPs, who voted against impeachment, follow her out of the party? And how many in the local party organizations will leave? And will the Liberals fall further in the opinion polls?

[Diouf]

Are there any plans to form a new party led by Stöjberg? All the speculation i've seen in danish media are about her either joining DF or NB.

I think speculation about a new party has entered the fray somewhat when she decided to leave the Liberals, and not join another party right away. I agree that it's been a bit weird that all the focus has been on DPP and New Right; perhaps it's because these two parties have tried so aggressively to court her. Their interviews, social media etc. have been filled with praise of Støjberg. Therefore many commentators have talked about it as a pivotal moment in the fight for hegemony on the anti-immigrant right. The one who gets Støjberg wins, the other falters. However, Støjberg has talked so much about how she's a Liberal (the party, not ideology) into the bone, and how much the party means to her. So with that it mind, it might be an easier step to make your "own version of the Liberals" than to join another party. As a Støjberg voter in 2019, I certainly hope she makes her own party. I was very encouraged when she mentioned attitudes to the UN conventions as the first thing when asked about her differences to the Liberal leadership in an interview yesterday. A party that is basically the Liberals + wants to abandon UN conventions on immigration and asylum would basically be the optimal party for me. But of course it takes a whole lot more work to build a new party.

Another Liberal defector, Lars Løkke, is starting to build up the infrastructure of his partynetwork. A board has been chosen, primarily with some of his business associates. 13 426 persons have joined the network so far. In a newsletter to the members, Løkke writes that many of the members have "an explicit ambition to create a party of reason, which combines idealism and pragmatism". Løkke then go on to states that he will do his best to ensure that those expectations do not end in disappointment.

[Diouf]

If I may ask, why do you think Denmark needs even tougher migration policies?

I mean, it's not really a political debate forum, but I have shortly answered it below here:

The two biggest issues are the difficulty in deporting criminal immigrants + the asylum system. Too often, repeat criminals and criminals which commit serious crime cannot be sentenced to deportation "due to Denmark's international obligations", which is UN conventions and ECHR. The asylum system works terrible and has all the wrong incentives. It should only be possible to seek asylum in Denmark if you are fleeing areas, which are neighbours or where Denmark is the first safe country. For all others, it shouldn't be possible to seek asylum in Denmark. The possibility to seek asylum for everyone creates the incentive for people to cross through Europe to get to the places with the best living conditions and/or relatives and communities. That is especially bad for the big group of economic migrants, whose asylum requests are rejected, but who are then very difficult and expensive to get to leave the country. And even for real refugees, it means there will never be talk of just temporary stay for people in need; it will almost always lead to permanent stay even when the situation in the home country has improved. Again, UN conventions and ECHR seem to be the biggest barriers to a sensible asylum system.