Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Lumine]

Much like how Boric maintained discipline for a while then started to slip (in general, not this specific debate), seems it's like JAK's time to screw up a bit.

[Lumine]

The hell happened with MEO? (I missed it, only heard him complain)

[Lumine]

Artes usually is a notable presence on the debate stage, what happened?

He really wasn't any different than any other night. Colorful, lost in time, and utterly meaningless in the grand scale of things.

If he was a more serious candidate he could have certainly exploited the hard-left, anti-establishment niche that has always distrusted Boric (the very same the LDP wanted to court before imploding) and be a larger factor, but his own flaws or perceived lack of seriousness ensure he remains stuck in 1-2%.

[Lumine]

Yes to all what lumine said, but even with that, I think Artés could have got up to 5-6% if Kast had not surged. Is the fear of Kast that has brought most of the reluctant leftists to settle with Boric.

Btw, seeing LOTS of anecdotal evidence of Kast voters switching back to Sichel, will it be enough to get Sichel into the runoff?
 

I mean, I wish, but I can't see it yet. The sad reality is that a lot of voters made the switch to Kast on an emotional level and I don't think they're coming back nor will be the swayed by the debate (like the Twitter brigade, accusing Sichel of being "disloyal").

I do think this may allow Sichel to surpass Provoste and get third, but barring some specific issues with turnout - like the suggestion that Kast is polling higher with people less likely to vote -, it may just be too late for the second round.

[Lumine]

Karina Oliva, failed FA gubernatorial candidate and candidate for senator for the Metropolitan Region, is facing a scandal regarding her campaign expenses for her gubernatorial run. FA is ditching her at lightning speed. She was one of my favourites to get a seat (well, I think she only polled well because of name ID, she is an awful candidate, but whatever), now the race is very open.

It is quite remarkable how bad of a candidate Oliva was last time, as she could easily be the incumbent governor right now.

Who do you believe will gain the most because of this? Depolo (who has also been screwing up) within the FA, Tellier/Pascual within AD, or Campillai from the outside?

[Lumine]

Leaked Cadem phone poll, without undecideds

Kast 28% (-4)
Boric 27% (+1)
Sichel 13% (+4)
Parisi 12% (-1)
Provoste 9% (-3)
MEO 9% (+2)
Artes 2% (+1)

Changes from the last phone poll.

Honestly, the amount of leaks this time, and how easy they have been divulged, has convinced me that the "banned" Cadem primary polls that supposedly saw Boric and Sichel victories did not in fact, exists. How on earth that thing didn't leak but a 2% MEO surge does?

Wouldn't be surprised if it didn't as it was just too convenient, but then again, the pressure is a lot now given how many percieve the election to be the most open in living memory.

Also, wouldn't want to be in the Provoste HQ if she gets 5th or 6th, or even below MEO, which was unthinkable before. It could just as easily happen to Sichel, but still, what a crippling psychological blow would that be.

[Lumine]

Yes, results will be on fairly quickly. Other than a few races, I would imagine we'll get the full picture tonight including Congress + COREs. Most likely a Nuevo Pacto Social and Chile Podemos Más massacre (one of which will be significantly worse than the other, can't tell which yet), the first supplanted by Apruebo Dignidad, the other losing a ton of seats thanks to vote spitting (with the Frente Social Cristiano performing better than people expect). If I'm wrong then great, but I'm gearing up for a very difficult night on my end.

How would be Lavin performing if he had won primaries?

I don't think that it would be doing better than Sichel. Lavín isn't as bad as Sichel debating, but he would had the exact same problem of perceived excessive moderation (socialdemocrat, a government neither left nor right). He would have a much better relationship with Chile Podemos + parties but the UDI label would drag him down. I think it would be a wash electorally, but I think Lumine could answer this question better.

I think that's a fair assessment, him being UDI would certainly have held back a few (but not many) of the incumbents that jumped ship, but without being able to prevent a significant voter flow to Kast. Still, I'm actually of the opinion he'd be doing a bit better and prove more competitive in the sense that Sichel's campaign team proved too inexperienced and he got the double punch of the debate and the PDC stuff from 2009. Lavin has been far more thoroughly vetted and people are more aware of both his achievements and screw-ups, so it's perfectly possible a Lavin-Kast competition would have been closer in polling and there would be a lot more uncertainty as to who would go to the second round.

I do believe Sichel is a far better second round candidate than Lavin, but, surprise surprise, one has to get into the second round first. That will be an important lesson for people going forward.

[Lumine]

Well, that was a wild ride, and very paradoxical in many aspects. We'll be rethinking the results of the election for quite a long time.

Sad to see Sichel didn't have a surge and still stunned both at the PDG and the Senate results in particular. The congressional race I was involved with was lost, but I don't feel despair over it.

Null vote on the runoff, here we go.

[Lumine]

Aye, a supreme waste of time.

I'd give Boric the edge for making such an effort to broaden his coalition, but I'm not sure if it will have the desired effect or if it will turn some people off. It's hard to tell if those who'll end up voting - I can't see turnout increasing like in 2017 - will reward the perception of moderation, or whether a candidate can go a bit too far in such efforts. Still, it forces JAK to both redouble the attacks on Boric being too extreme while also having to attack him for ditching his previous stances (which is never easy to pull off), so I suppose he'll benefit.

[Lumine]

Aye, a supreme waste of time.

I'd give Boric the edge for making such an effort to broaden his coalition, but I'm not sure if it will have the desired effect or if it will turn some people off. It's hard to tell if those who'll end up voting - I can't see turnout increasing like in 2017 - will reward the perception of moderation, or whether a candidate can go a bit too far in such efforts. Still, it forces JAK to both redouble the attacks on Boric being too extreme while also having to attack him for ditching his previous stances (which is never easy to pull off), so I suppose he'll benefit.

As someone who is pretty deep in a left bubble, with all the shades of purism, I think the general attitude of the left and the people who could be bothered by the moderation is this:

Oh, I agree, I have no doubt fear against JAK will undoubtedly motivate the left, what I wonder is whether the more apolitical part of the electorate will buy into it, or whether they'll find it insincere and/or reward JAK for being seen as more consistent. My guess is it will be the former, but it's still interesting to think about it.

[Lumine]

The Atlas Intel poll also suggests Parisi voters swung hard towards Kast, which is not something other polls have detected (on the contrary). I suppose the poll could be right, but I feel Boric is at least 3-4 points ahead instead of a tie.

Also, Lucia Hiriart (Pinochet's widow, increasingly infamous for her longevity) just died, which is quite the remarkable coincidence. If not from JAK himself, I expect at least a few bad - or tone deaf - takes from the Republicans.

[Lumine]

The PDG held an online vote yesterday (24.000 out of 44.000 party members voted), results were unveiled today as Kast 61%, Boric 7%, Null/Blank/No endorsement 32%. As a result, Parisi uploaded a video criticizing Boric on a number of points (including somehow portraying him as a darling of the media), and stating that, if he could vote, he'd vote JAK.

What the effect of this might be is unclear (Parisi may be able to speak for his party members, but his voters may be a different thing), but it's certainly not welcome news for Boric after what was a strong final week of campaigning for him.

[Lumine]

The left current coalition is very unstable and could be easily undone if by some miracle a sane socially liberal right emerged.

Isn't this Evopoli? (Or at least they pretend they're like this)

They pretended to be this, but over the course of the Piñera government, they have discredited themselves. They have been hardcore Piñerists, which is obviously very unpopular, but above all, most of their deputies have voted against abortion, against adoption for gay couples, one of their senators turned to be a homophobe... Supporting Kast in the second run was the last straw to totally discredit themselves as a "renewed socially liberal right".

Related to this, their former presidential candidate Ignacio Briones said that he voted null in the runoff because Kast was an "involution" for the right and EVOPOLI main figures (along with Mario Desbordes lol) have heavily criticized him for that.

(Plus everything Velasco just said)

Yes and no. It bears reminding that abortion is one of the most controversial issues for liberals in general, so on by itself the party's lack of support for it does not really diminish its liberal credentials. The party was also rather consistent in terms of supporting equal marriage, and those who have expressed opposition to it (like senator Aravena) have either left the party or are clearly in the wrong place.

Having said that, the party's decision to support JAK does discredit Evopoli's claim to be a liberal party and is fairly inexcusable considering how much time we spent in the past criticizing JAK (and, more broadly, the Republicans) for his populist, hard-right and/or extreme stances. If one adds this to how much the more conservative faction of the party has managed to impose its views lately (like the inexplicable equivocation on the plebscite instead of going all in for Apruebo), then the party truly loses credibility*.

The left current coalition is very unstable and could be easily undone if by some miracle a sane socially liberal right emerged.

Isn't this Evopoli? (Or at least they pretend they're like this)

I watched senator Felipe Kast explaining why Evopoli supported candidate José Antonio Kast. I felt a sensation of deja vu when the senator said "we are democrats", while bashing the evil communists who support mapuche "terrorists" and stating "the Pinochet regime did some good things".  Actually I thought Felipe Kast was Albert Rivera, the former leader of the Spanish party Ciudadanos who occassionally quoted (unintentionally, I believe) Falange leader José Antonio Primo de Rivera. With all the due respect for their supporters, they are in no way "social liberals"

The Rivera comparison is apt in some ways. It's particularly ironic since within the party we were rather mindful of the Ciudadanos debacle and keen not to repeat it, but the lesson some people drew from it wasn't that Rivera made a mistake to go so far to the right, but rather than Ciudadanos made a mistake of not having a clear enough identity. And now, of course, the party has chosen to put the "right" ahead of "liberal" in terms of its identity, embracing the Vox equivalent (some, of course, did it with alarming enthusiasm, like Senator-elect and aspiring "unity" figure Cruz-Coke).

* Which is why, on a personal note, I resigned my party membership a few weeks ago. Have felt rather relaxed since then.

[Lumine]

Forgot to comment on the Cabinet, found it surprisingly decent, and cleverly devoid from most of the figures that one would predict to burn out early or say something stupid (see: Depolo, Lagos, Sanhueza, and so on). Also clever positioning of Marcel, Jackson, Vallejos and Fernandez. If anything, the only one I found problematic was Nicolás Grau, and that's mostly my impression of him being incompetent rather than mere ideological aversion.

Having said all that, really looking forward to see how Siches handles security issues as long as that brief remains in her power, even if it's obvious the eventual vice-minister will handle those affairs directly. It's been speculated a lot that mistakes on that front could sink her earlier than expected given how unsuccessful Interior Ministers have been in the last decade and a half.

There will be a runoff between Delpin and Perez. In theory, Calderon support should flow to Delpin since both of them are full for change and refundation with new ideas and whatever and both are very pro-Boric. But Perez list is already courting Calderon and I honestly don't know about DC internal politics to be able to tell where will this go.

If I remember correctly, Calderon is one of those who'd quite happily force the DC to drop the act and finally declare themselves firmly center-left (which is ultimately what they mostly are, memes aside), so I can't see him aligning himself with Pérez. I could be wrong as Calderon was apparently about as nakedly ambitious as it gets in student politics, but Peréz's list really doesn't suit his ideological profile.

Well, apparently the Socialismo Democrático name will stick, it's catching on on the press and they even have a wikipedia page:https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialismo_Democr%C3%A1tico_(Chile)

I'm resalting this because 1) I still find it funny that the liberals seem to be fine with a name like that and 2) This is like the first time in over 20 years since a semi-relevant coalition used ideological descriptors in their name instead of generic nonsense. The last ones were the communist's coalitions in the '90s that usually had "left" in their name.

It is rather odd, but it is indeed a welcome change from the mostly vapid coalition names we've seen recently (and undoubtedly a vast improvement from Convergencia Progresista, Unidad Constituyente and Nuevo Pacto Social). I don't find the Liberals being okay with it strange though. They make a lot of noise about their supposed identity, but if Ominami hadn't taken the PRO name, being a "Progressive Party" would fit them a lot better.

There is, however, a wonderful irony in the PL leaving their coalition because it had allied with the Communists only to return home now that their former allies are in power. Not a bad move, but ironic.

[Lumine]

Also, Interior Minister Izkia Siches has been affected by several controversies and gaffes, the latest one claiming before a parliamentary committee that a plane with expulsed Venezuelan immigrants didn't actually expel anyone and came back with the immigrants. That was a fake news and she had to quickly apologize. Some people like PDG are claiming for her head already, and while Boric reprimanded her he said that Siches still had his full confidence.

Boric also isn't having much of a honeymoon, with his approval failing fairly quickly. This is because the government hasn't made many announcements so far and the agenda has focused on the violence in Araucanía (where government attempts at dialogue have fallen flat) and inflation, plus another attempt at a withdrawal of pension funds. Boric today did some announcements such as a freeze on public transport fares and upping the minimum wage, but the problem IMO is that he is combining the economic orthodoxy of the Concertación with the wokeism /ñuñoismo of FA and that is a toxic combination long term.

Personally, as long as the new constitution is approved, Boric can run away on a helicopter for all I care, but the plebiscite is going to be a bitter battle that needs a not so unpopular government.

I have to confess that while the gaffes and trouble installing the government could be expected (inexperience and having to handle so many coalition parties), what has surprised me is that they've surrendered the initiative for an entire month. I imagined they would have a battery of announcements for the first few weeks - even symbolic ones -, and the lack of that I think has been a serious mistake.

Also, I maintain that Siches allowed her ambition to get the best of her. Should never have taken Interior, it's just going to burn her out and even sooner than people imagined.

[Lumine]

Maybe, just maybe, the truckers are also a bit tired of being shot at for doing their job while the present administration is not only as powerless as the previous one to maintain order, but also less publically committed to at least trying.

Not that the truckers as a whole don't have significant privileges and often whine too much, but let's not act like everything's going wonderful for them (particularly the unfortunate ones that have to drive through the Araucania).

[Lumine]

Another Sunday, and we have new polls:

BORIC APPROVAL:

CADEM: 35% (-1) / 53% (=) / 12% (+1)
PULSO CIUDADANO: 24% (-4) / 58% (+7)  / 18% (-3)

PLEBISCITE:

CADEM: Approve 36% (-1) / Reject 46% (=) / Other 18% (+1)
PULSO CIUDADANO: Approve 29% (-3) / Reject 41% (+4) / Other 30% (-1)

CADEM also has Siches dropping from 54% approval in March to 33%. And we continue the anomaly of Cadem giving greater approval numbers and a better prospect to Approve than Pulso Ciudadano, which is the opposite scenario one would have expected last year.

I still don't buy the numbers against the Boric administration being that harsh - surely people's expectations didn't crash that badly? -, but... it's not an encouraging prospect right now.

Four months to go until the plebiscite.

[Lumine]

Polls continue to be grim for both the government and for Approve, with only two months to go. Having said that, and despite a ceaseless stream of gaffes or communication mistakes, today's ceremony in which the final proposal was delivered seems to have gone well, without any overt mistakes and a rather measured tone.

Definetly not ruling out an Approve comeback during the campaign if they can keep it up, but some of the more controversial - or egocentric - members of the Convention seem determined to campaign and be as much as possible in the public eye (a similar issue plagues Reject, with some unpopular right-wing politicians also unwilling to shut up), so it's hard to tell. All in all, there appears to be a "consensus" that the end result will be close either way, and that Reject has the edge.

[Lumine]

Some additional movement today:

-Former President Lagos publishes a letter, declining to back either option. Is critical of both the current constitution and the proposed one, calls to continue the process regardless of the result. Significantly, does not back Approve like some predicted he might end up doing despite his doubts.

-Parisi's PDG holds an online vote, 91% backs Reject. Not much of a surprise there, but still a factor.

-Perhaps due to Lagos providing symbolic cover, a number of center-left politicians also announce support for Reject today, including Oscar Landerretche, Javiera Parada, Felipe Harboe and Andrés Velasco. Most of these names are not necessarily a surprise, Landerretche is perhaps the most significant one in so far as there's an apparent taboo within the PS for anyone to stray away from Approve.

So... not the best day for Approve - particularly due to Lagos - in terms of public discourse, with the caveat that it's not necessarily clear (indeed there are reasons to dobut) that these names actually move any significant amount of votes.

[Lumine]

No poll leaks after the blackout?

Oh yea, most of these are from Sunday, I haven't had much time lately.

CADEM: Approve 38 (+1) and Reject 48 (+2)
UDD: Approve 39 | Reject 49
Activa: Approve 32.7 | Reject 48.9

Campaign ends today and Approve deployed its last card: Michelle Bachelet appeared in the Franja Electoral. She is the only ex-president that has some sway over public opinion, but the gap is too big for it too matter.

(I've always found that poll hilarious, because you just know the 6% for Piñera is people who would vote against the option he advocates for)

There is a certain tendency lately to promote a number of "mathematical models" - that track social media interaction among other things - to suggest the polls are wrong and Approve will triumph, but the polls themselves show results as being fairly clear and not having changed that much in the past few weeks.

But we'll see. I still think Approve can win depending on turnout - anecdotal evidence suggests this is a common belief for people in the right, partly due to still being shellshocked from past electoral debacles -, but thus far this is the closest I've been to feeling Reject has a serious chance and it's not just hype.

I'm also beyond sick of the campaign and grateful it ends today, really looking forward to Monday and what happens afterward (particularly the cabinet reshuffle).

[Lumine]

Just voted (Reject), it was pretty swift, though most people at my polling place had seemingly already voted.

Not going to lie, signs are good for us right now what with the international vote and the apparently monumental turnout, provided the polling assumption that said turnout surge is indeed favorable to Reject. I don't see reports of incidents or significant trouble, which is also welcome news.

Two hours left to vote, and then we should know within two hours at most (if its narrow), probably much earlier if the margin is decent enough. I'm optimistic, but not confident.

[Lumine]

Magallanes is an utter disaster for Approve right now. 41% of the vote there in, Reject with 60% (!)

[Lumine]

Tocopilla has approval/disapproval of  27.3/72.7 !!! Boric was 69.8 here ... what is going on ?

Only 30 votes counted there yet, not significant.

[Lumine]

The margin should theoretically narrow as the Santiago and Valparaiso votes comes in, but... yikes. Yeah, I do think it's over.

[Lumine]

It is over, and the margins are unbelievable. They seem to be going towards the utter best case for Reject (which is indeed 60-40).