Canadian Election 2019

[Poirot]

May, Blanchet and Trudaeu are at the climate march in Montreal. Greta Thunberg is there also. It is expected to be big. Singh is at a march in Victoria.

[Poirot]

Mianstreet riding poll for Laurier-Sainte-Marie. Margin of error is 4% and pollster for this one included the candidate's name. Don't know if the pollster will start doing this going forward after the declaration deadline but here it helps the very well known environmentalist Steven Guilbeault.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreet-large-avance-pour-guilbeault-dans-laurier-sainte-marie-882ad296c54cebe4562033452d6b141d

LPC 41, Bloc 27, NDP 13, Green 9, CPC and PPC 4

I thought it would be hard for the NDP to hold it considering general level of support but could retain more support since it is one of the target.

[Poirot]

May, Blanchet and Trudaeu are at the climate march in Montreal. Greta Thunberg is there also. It is expected to be big. Singh is at a march in Victoria.

....What is Trudeau marching for? He does know they're marching for him to make an impact, right?

Probably for the photo op and show he cares about the environment.

[Poirot]

Every afternoon, Nanos publishes their three-day tracking poll of 'Preferred Prime Minster'.

In the past five days, Justin Trudeau's numbers have dropped from:

34.5%  -->  33.1%  -->  32.4%  -->  29.6%  -->  28.3%

It seems the cause is mostly young voters. Could be the climate day and young voters turning to more serious parties on this issue.
https://election.ctvnews.ca/the-greta-effect-nanos-survey-suggests-young-voters-turning-on-trudeau-1.4616701

[Poirot]

The Munk debate on foreign policy was cancelled due to Trudeau not participating.

October 2 at 8pm on TVA and LCN there is a debate in French with Trudeau, Scheer, Singh and Blanchet. The three big topics are: economy and environment, governance and Quebec's place in Canada, immigration and social policy.

The leaders debate in English is on October 7. The five themes are: affordability and economic insecurity, environment and energy, Indigenous issues, national and global leadership, and polarization, human rights and immigration.

The big consortium debate in French is October 10. The five themes are: economy and finances, environment and energy, foreign policy and immigration, identity, ethics and governance, and services to citizens.

   

[Poirot]

Scheer was on the defensive at the start of the debate. First topic discussed abortion. Seems like other poarties have managed to make social issues an election issue. So most opinions are Scheer had a rough night. Singh was warm and authentic. Blanchet was at ease but some didn't like the professor tone. Trudeau was not constantly under attack for the incumbent.

[Poirot]

The CTV News election site has ‘Ridings to Watch’, which shows the outline of six federal ridings and the party colours of the incumbent MP.

https://election.ctvnews.ca/

How many can you name?

Only 1. Sorry.

[Poirot]

Conservatives drop Heather Leung in Burnaby North-Seymour.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/heather-leung-campaign-media-strategy-1.5308429

Robinson didn't want the Conservatives to keep her. Now that she is out, doesn't it make it even harder for him to win. Unless it's a place where there are more CPC-NDP swingers than CPC-Lib swinger, it seems harder to win for him than in a 3 or 4 way race.

[Poirot]

Also ND signs in Quebec have a tiny NDP logo (and an even tinier "Jagmeet Singh" mention). In some ridings, NDP signs are not orange either.

I haven't seen the blue / landscape sign. Only saw small orange ones somewhere but not in my riding. Only Liberal, Conservative and Bloc signs. There was a debate on community tv and only those three candidates participated. Green and NDP were invited but didn't go.

[Poirot]

Mainstreet riding poll for Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, done September 29. The main contenders are current/former sovereigntists.

Réjean Hébert, LPC 35
Denis Trudel BQ 28
Pierre Nantel Green 17 (outgoing NDP MP)
Patrick Clune CPC 9
Eric Ferland NPD 5
Ellen Comeau PPC 3

https://www.latribune.ca/actualites/elections-2019/rejean-hebert-en-avance-dans-longueil-saint-hubert-selon-mainstreet-102a75136ee8f5906d6f209164076898

[Poirot]

There was also a riding poll for Beauport-Limoilou in Quebec City. Conservative MP won with 31% with LPC and NDP at 25%.

Margin of error is 3.9%. It was done pre-debate.  MP is running again and facing the same LPC candidate.
CPC  32% LPC 30% BQ 20% Green 7% NDP 6% PPC 3%

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreet-chaude-lutte-dans-beauport-limoilou-65db07b3f57f4cb35618d687413f8b5f

And a few weeks after showing Blanchet trailing now Mainstreet shows him leading in Beloeil-Chambly. Margin of error 4%

BQ 38.8 LPC 24.7 NDP incumbent 17.5 CPC 8.7 Green 6.1 PPC 2

The NDP candidate in Richmond-Arthabaska will not go in that riding, he is a paper candidate. He is helping in Beloeil-Chambly because he is assistant to the NDP MP.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreet-avance-confortable-du-chef-bloquiste-dansbeloeil-chambly-32ac09ce06937a1b6ff9c4609567731e

[Poirot]

Mainstreet riding poll for Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, done September 29. The main contenders are current/former sovereigntists.

Réjean Hébert, LPC 35
Denis Trudel BQ 28
Pierre Nantel Green 17 (outgoing NDP MP)
Patrick Clune CPC 9
Eric Ferland NPD 5
Ellen Comeau PPC 3

https://www.latribune.ca/actualites/elections-2019/rejean-hebert-en-avance-dans-longueil-saint-hubert-selon-mainstreet-102a75136ee8f5906d6f209164076898

Keep in mind that Sept 29 was the day of the climate strike with Greta Thunberg in Montreal and polling nationally seemed to have given the Greens a momentary "sugar high" for a couple of days...they have dropped a lot since. If Nantel was at 17% on Sept 29. He is probably at 10% by today

Good point. But he is incumbent MP, can get NDP votes, sovereignist vote, Green vote. One of the few known Green candidate so he should do better than generic Green I imagine.

[Poirot]

Candidate count (by myself, may contain mistakes):
...
Rhinoceros 39
...
Parti pour l’indépendance du Québec 13


Ridings with the least candidates (4):
...
York Centre

I've cut the list just to keep a few things.
Rhino party doesn't run many candidates. Many people are not crazy about the choices so perhaps they could get votes.
I've read about the PIQ. It seems to be the Martine Ouellet followers. people who want a party to only promote independance.

Surprised to see York Centre on the list of least candidates. Urban ridings ususally have many.

[Poirot]

This is an editorial. When you see mistakes in polling report, it makes you wonder how much care goes into the pollster's work if they publish mistakes.

Reading reports by Forum I found myself scratching my head two times.
First was in a report on Pierre Nantel joining the Green Party. In the release there is a quote from someone working at Forum. « Le saut de Maxime Bernier vers le Parti Vert...
So Maxime Bernier jumped to the Green Party! I guess they don't have many people proof reading in French.

That was September 6.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/1f9b2ec4-d506-447c-b352-02fa7258fa89Quebec%20Federal%20Pierre%20Nantel%20Party%20Switch%20FR.pdf

The second time was on their September 11 poll release. In the table of regional numbers the Bloc Quebecois is at 0.2% in Ontario. The Bloc leader made a stop in eastern Ontario during the campaign but it,s weird to publish a number over 0 when there is no candidate in Ontario. It shouldn't be a choice for Ontario voters, or they should ask the province before voting preference and adjust the choices accordingly. Or it was a transcription mistake.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/1d9659c0-79fa-4e7c-8246-45e0f565c42bFed%20Horserace%20Day%201%202019_final.pdf

[Poirot]

I've looked at the last election result and Clune in the poll gets the same vote share as the 2015 candidate received.  When I look at some ridings in the ring around Montreal the Copnservatives got 10-12% of votes so to win seats in the suburbs they would have to increase vote share by about 20% if it takes at least 30% to win.

Abacus polled 373 Quebec francophone respondent after the debate on TVA.
Asked which leader did nost to earn your vote, 30% answered Trudeau and Blanchet each, 14% Singh, 10% Scheer.

Asked which leader did most to lose your vote, 36% said Scheer, 26% Trudeau, 13% Blanchet, 8% Singh.

https://abacusdata.ca/french-language-debate-poll-canada-2019/

I find they ask some strange questions. Why not who won the debate, did it change your voting preference.

[Poirot]

I have a family member who doesn't want to vote (but usually votes). I think it's because of the election focused on mini-scandals / distractions.

So it's not about promises. It doesn't seem very important to be fiscally prudent. There is not much critique of fiscal plans or real costs of promises.

I don't know if turnout will be lower. Perhaps come election day people will decide to vote for one of the bunch.

[Poirot]

The English debate will be at 7 pm on Monday, the exact same time that the Leafs will be playing. I am so annoyed. I will probably watch the Leafs game live, and watch the debate tomorrow on YouTube.

I think the second debate in French is scheduled at the same time as the Montreal Canadiens home game.

[Poirot]

Since support levels have moved the riding polls of 3-4 weeks ago are not worth much. This one confirms Bloc is doing well in the regions.

Mainstreet for Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, October 5 (so after first French debate), margin 4%.

Bloc is at 29,3%, Conservative 28,9% and Liberal at 22, 6%. NDP 8, Green 6, PPC 4.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/bloc-et-conservateur-au-coude-a-coude-dans-montmagny-selon-mainstreet-0744260b0683dad4151de5a71d79cecb

In 2015 Conservative won with 29%, 270 ahead of Liberal, Bloc was 4th with 16%.. The Liberal candidate's first name is Aladin. Trudeau must have liked that!

[Poirot]

Leger 10/9

LPC: 31% (-3)
CPC: 31% (-3)
NDP: 18% (+4)
GPC: 11% (-)
PPC: 3% (+1)

*Note: BQ not included in federal numbers, but polling at 29% in QC specifically. (LPC - 31%, CPC - 16%, NDP 13%, GRN - 7%, PPC - 3%)

Léger has a big enough sample for regional numbers to be  meaningful.
In greater Montreal area, Lib still lead with 39%, Bloc rise to 24%, NPD rise to 16, Conservative 10, Green 8. If the NDP vote is concentrated in their good ridings maybe they can win more than Rosemont.

Quebec City still has Conservatives in the lead with 37%, Liberal 22, Bloc 21, NDP 11.
Rest of Quebec is Bloc 37%, Liberal 23, Conservative 20,  NDP 11.

Even if the Bloc and Liberals are about ties around 30%, The Bloc has a strong lead with fancophone voters.  Bloc 37, Liberal 24, Conservative 17, NDP 13. Non-francophone is Lib 54%,  NDP 15, Conservative 14, Green 7, PPC 5, Bloc 3

For best PM Trudeau is at 30%, Singh and Scheer at 12%, May 5, Bernier 3. They don't seem to include Blanchet in the choices.

There is a question about what you worry most, 4 more years of Trudeau or a return to power of the Conservatives. Fear of Conservatives got 48%, more Trudeau 37%. PPC and CPC are clearly no more Trudeau and Liberal fear Conservative, all near 80% level. NDP and Green is more 60% worry Conservative 30% worry Trudeau. Bloc is evenly split at 44%.

There are questions about the first debate and on second choice. NDP is most popular second choice with 21%, Bloc , Green Liberal, 14-13-13, Conservative 10.

Second choice of Liberal voters is NDP 30%. Bloc 23, Green 14, CPC 9 PPC 1.
Second choice of Bloc: Liberal 20, NDP 18, CPC 16, Green 11, PPC 3
Second choice of Conservative: 23% NDP, 16% Bloc, 11% Green, 10 PPC, 9 Liberal.
Second choice of NDP: 30% LPC, 25 Green, 17 Bloc, 12 CPC, 1 PPC
Second choice of Green: 39 NDP, 29 LPC,  11 Bloc, 4 CPC, 2 PPC
Second choice of PPC: 30% CPC, 19 Bloc, 8 NDP, Green 5, PLC 0

It looks like there is more link between Liberal, NDP and Green party voters. Some more surprising things is NDP being top choice of Conservatives. I think Bloc was a popular second choic in earlier poll but maybe those have migrated already. Also the first choice of Bloc is Liberal which is not natural but it's split evenly between three parties. Bloc is second choice of Liberal voters.

Léger Quebec results of the federal poll
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Politique-fe%CC%81de%CC%81rale-au-Que%CC%81bec-10-oct-2019.pdf

[Poirot]

Mainstreet riding poll for Beauce, done October 9 so before last debate and Bernier was in it. Margin of error 3,9%.

CPC Richard Lehoux 31%, Maxime Bernier PPC 29%, Lib 15, Bloc 13, Green 4, NDP 2
A statistical tie.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreet-bernier-toujours-dans-une-lutte-serree-en-beauce-video-4e4bfee46bf6231bb5554098414744ab

[Poirot]

Trudeau doing his best Kellie Leitch impression.

This article says he did not say values test.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6022076/trudeau-quebec-new-immigrants-test-values/

"The live English translation of Thursday’s debate made it seem like Trudeau said it was appropriate for Legault to implement a “values test” for newcomers. But Trudeau did not use these words. In fact, he did not use the word “values” at all.

“If [Legault] wants to apply a test for the certificate of selection, that’s okay and it’s appropriate for him to do so,” is what Trudeau actually said during the debate. The word “values” was not mentioned by Trudeau in this context. "


All federal leaders I think have said they don't agree with a values test. The Quebec government seems to have dropped their test to obtain permanent residency.

September 27 article talks about the Quebec government's new plan.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1319412/caq-gouvernement-legault-test-valeurs-immigrants-quebec-residence-permanente

It would be an attestion of learning democratic values and Quebec values, for economi immigrants. It would not be an exam, It would be an information session and for those outside Quebec could be done online.

The values attestation would be to get the Quebec certificate of selection, controlled by the Quebec govermment, which is the step before the permanent residency. The federal government didn't want Quebec to set criteria for permanent residency.

Maybe Trudeau wanted to look like he was open to Quebec demands ( I think he scores 0 on the 4 Quebec demands) or he wanted to say Quebec has the right to do what it wants in its jurisdiction in the Quebec-Canada immigration agreement.

[Poirot]

The Bloc says it will not take part in formal coalition or alliance. Will give support piece by piece, bill by bill.

[Poirot]

Even if the Bloc doesn't want to take part in government, I imagine it would have to take a side if two parties want to be government. Abstaining is like giving up any influence on policy. Likely each party would try to put elements pleasing the Bloc in a throne's speech proposal. 

[Poirot]

Because I'm too lazy/distracted at the moment, does anyone want to report on advance/special vs final tallies (i.e. where the leading party was different from the final result)?

Eric Grenier did a comparison of advance voting numbers and election day numbers.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-advance-polls-1.5399398

Advance voting was about 27% of all ballots.
Conservative party got 36,3% (leading in 133 seats)
Liberal party 33% (leading in 149 seats)
New Democrats 13,3% (19 seats)
Bloc Québécois 8,6% (33 seats)
Green party 6,6% (3 seats)
People's party 1,5%
Jody Wilson-Raybould was ahead in Vancouver Granville.

Result of only the ballots cast on election day:
Conservative 33,6% (ahead in 118 seats)
Liberal 33,2% (ahead in 155 seats)
NDP 17% (ahead in 27 seats)
Bloc 7,4% (ahead in 34 seats)
Green 6,4% (ahead in 3 seats)
People 1,6%

The CPC took less of the vote on election day than they did in the advance polls in every region of the country except Atlantic Canada.

He lists ridings where the difference between the two results change the outcome.

There were a dozen ridings where the Conservatives' performance on election day cost them the seat — ridings where their lead in the advance poll was not wide enough to compensate for poorer results on Oct. 21.

This boosted both the Liberals and the New Democrats. Largely due to the Conservatives falling back on election day, the Liberals picked up King–Vaughan, Kitchener–Conestoga and Richmond Hill in Ontario, Winnipeg South in Manitoba, Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam in British Columbia and Yukon in the North.

The NDP's election day boost pushed them ahead of the Conservatives in Elmwood–Transcona in Manitoba and Skeena–Bulkley Valley, South Okanagan–West Kootenay and North Island–Powell River in British Columbia. The NDP also was able to beat the Liberals in Windsor West in Ontario and the Greens in Victoria, B.C. on election day.

While the Greens lost Victoria, they made up for it with a gain in Fredericton, where the Conservatives had been leading after the advance polls. The Bloc also took Beauport–Limoilou away from the Conservatives on election day.

But the Liberals bolstered their own minority with wins in Quebec on Oct. 21. The party had been trailing the Bloc in Hochelaga, Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne and Québec after the advance poll. They pulled out a win in these three ridings on election day (though the opposite happened in Shefford, where the Bloc stole a riding where the Liberals led in the advance poll). They also came from behind in the Ontario riding of Davenport, where the NDP had been ahead after Thanksgiving's voting.

In some ridings the winner of the advance poll ballots had a big enough lead to win the election even though it came second on election day ballots.

n a few ridings, meanwhile, the advance poll made the difference. In the Quebec riding of Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, the Ontario riding of Kenora and the B.C. riding of Port Moody–Coquitlam, the Conservatives built up enough of a lead in the advance poll to stay ahead despite finishing second on election day itself.

Meanwhile, their (Liberals) advance poll results allowed them to prevail in Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine in Quebec — despite losing election day itself to the Bloc — and Windsor–Tecumseh in Ontario, where the NDP took more of the vote on election day.