Canadian Election 2019
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Krago
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« Reply #1125 on: October 05, 2019, 06:39:16 AM »

The CTV News election site has ‘Ridings to Watch’, which shows the outline of six federal ridings and the party colours of the incumbent MP.

https://election.ctvnews.ca/

How many can you name?
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Poirot
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« Reply #1126 on: October 05, 2019, 03:55:14 PM »

The CTV News election site has ‘Ridings to Watch’, which shows the outline of six federal ridings and the party colours of the incumbent MP.

https://election.ctvnews.ca/

How many can you name?

Only 1. Sorry.
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Poirot
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« Reply #1127 on: October 05, 2019, 03:59:08 PM »


Robinson didn't want the Conservatives to keep her. Now that she is out, doesn't it make it even harder for him to win. Unless it's a place where there are more CPC-NDP swingers than CPC-Lib swinger, it seems harder to win for him than in a 3 or 4 way race.
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Poirot
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« Reply #1128 on: October 05, 2019, 04:08:12 PM »

Also ND signs in Quebec have a tiny NDP logo (and an even tinier "Jagmeet Singh" mention). In some ridings, NDP signs are not orange either.

I haven't seen the blue / landscape sign. Only saw small orange ones somewhere but not in my riding. Only Liberal, Conservative and Bloc signs. There was a debate on community tv and only those three candidates participated. Green and NDP were invited but didn't go.

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MaxQue
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« Reply #1129 on: October 05, 2019, 04:43:31 PM »

Candidate count (by myself, may contain mistakes):
Liberal 338
Conservative 338
NDP 338
Green 338
PPC 315
Independents 125
Bloc Québécois 78
Christian Heritage 51
Marxist Leninist 50
Rhinoceros 39
Communist 30
Veterans Coalition 25
Libertarian 24
Animal Protection 17
Parti pour l’indépendance du Québec 13
Fourth Front 7
Marijuana 4
United 4
National Citizens Alliance 4
Progressive 3
Nationalist Party 3
Stop Climate Change 2

Ridings with the most candidates (11):
Papineau
Ottawa Centre

Ridings with the least candidates (4):
Avalon
Bonavista-Burin-Trinity
Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame
Labrador
St John's East
Egmont
Malpeque
Halifax West
Acadie-Bathurst
Madawaska-Restigouche
York Centre
Nunavut
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DL
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« Reply #1130 on: October 05, 2019, 04:46:53 PM »

Nanos today has the Liberals moving into a three point 36-33 lead over the Conservatives AND also has the NDP up to 16% and the Greens crashing down to 7%. In Quebec in particular, CPC support has been crashing ever since Scheer's catastrophically bad debate performance on Tuesday night.

Interestingly on Nanos's tracking question where they ask people if they thing each party leader does or does not "have the qualities of a good leader"...when the campaign started Singh was in the low 30% on that measure. As of today he is at 46% and has overtaken Andrew Scheer and Elizabeth May on that measure.

Other polls like the latest from Campaign Research also show Singh's approval numbers soaring. Usually when a party's leader gets increasingly popular it is a leading indicator for that party to start to move up in vote intention. We shall see.  
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1131 on: October 05, 2019, 06:43:28 PM »

Conservatives = 337 candidates
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1132 on: October 05, 2019, 06:48:25 PM »


Unless the law changed, she is still on the ballot as a Conservative, no?
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Poirot
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« Reply #1133 on: October 05, 2019, 07:18:52 PM »

Mainstreet riding poll for Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, done September 29. The main contenders are current/former sovereigntists.

Réjean Hébert, LPC 35
Denis Trudel BQ 28
Pierre Nantel Green 17 (outgoing NDP MP)
Patrick Clune CPC 9
Eric Ferland NPD 5
Ellen Comeau PPC 3

https://www.latribune.ca/actualites/elections-2019/rejean-hebert-en-avance-dans-longueil-saint-hubert-selon-mainstreet-102a75136ee8f5906d6f209164076898
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DL
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« Reply #1134 on: October 05, 2019, 07:25:46 PM »

Mainstreet riding poll for Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, done September 29. The main contenders are current/former sovereigntists.

Réjean Hébert, LPC 35
Denis Trudel BQ 28
Pierre Nantel Green 17 (outgoing NDP MP)
Patrick Clune CPC 9
Eric Ferland NPD 5
Ellen Comeau PPC 3

https://www.latribune.ca/actualites/elections-2019/rejean-hebert-en-avance-dans-longueil-saint-hubert-selon-mainstreet-102a75136ee8f5906d6f209164076898

Keep in mind that Sept 29 was the day of the climate strike with Greta Thunberg in Montreal and polling nationally seemed to have given the Greens a momentary "sugar high" for a couple of days...they have dropped a lot since. If Nantel was at 17% on Sept 29. He is probably at 10% by today
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Poirot
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« Reply #1135 on: October 05, 2019, 07:39:58 PM »

There was also a riding poll for Beauport-Limoilou in Quebec City. Conservative MP won with 31% with LPC and NDP at 25%.

Margin of error is 3.9%. It was done pre-debate.  MP is running again and facing the same LPC candidate.
CPC  32% LPC 30% BQ 20% Green 7% NDP 6% PPC 3%

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreet-chaude-lutte-dans-beauport-limoilou-65db07b3f57f4cb35618d687413f8b5f

And a few weeks after showing Blanchet trailing now Mainstreet shows him leading in Beloeil-Chambly. Margin of error 4%

BQ 38.8 LPC 24.7 NDP incumbent 17.5 CPC 8.7 Green 6.1 PPC 2

The NDP candidate in Richmond-Arthabaska will not go in that riding, he is a paper candidate. He is helping in Beloeil-Chambly because he is assistant to the NDP MP.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreet-avance-confortable-du-chef-bloquiste-dansbeloeil-chambly-32ac09ce06937a1b6ff9c4609567731e
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Poirot
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« Reply #1136 on: October 05, 2019, 07:43:54 PM »

Mainstreet riding poll for Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, done September 29. The main contenders are current/former sovereigntists.

Réjean Hébert, LPC 35
Denis Trudel BQ 28
Pierre Nantel Green 17 (outgoing NDP MP)
Patrick Clune CPC 9
Eric Ferland NPD 5
Ellen Comeau PPC 3

https://www.latribune.ca/actualites/elections-2019/rejean-hebert-en-avance-dans-longueil-saint-hubert-selon-mainstreet-102a75136ee8f5906d6f209164076898

Keep in mind that Sept 29 was the day of the climate strike with Greta Thunberg in Montreal and polling nationally seemed to have given the Greens a momentary "sugar high" for a couple of days...they have dropped a lot since. If Nantel was at 17% on Sept 29. He is probably at 10% by today

Good point. But he is incumbent MP, can get NDP votes, sovereignist vote, Green vote. One of the few known Green candidate so he should do better than generic Green I imagine.
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Poirot
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« Reply #1137 on: October 05, 2019, 08:03:24 PM »

Candidate count (by myself, may contain mistakes):
...
Rhinoceros 39
...
Parti pour l’indépendance du Québec 13


Ridings with the least candidates (4):
...
York Centre

I've cut the list just to keep a few things.
Rhino party doesn't run many candidates. Many people are not crazy about the choices so perhaps they could get votes.
I've read about the PIQ. It seems to be the Martine Ouellet followers. people who want a party to only promote independance.

Surprised to see York Centre on the list of least candidates. Urban ridings ususally have many.
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Poirot
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« Reply #1138 on: October 05, 2019, 08:19:25 PM »

This is an editorial. When you see mistakes in polling report, it makes you wonder how much care goes into the pollster's work if they publish mistakes.

Reading reports by Forum I found myself scratching my head two times.
First was in a report on Pierre Nantel joining the Green Party. In the release there is a quote from someone working at Forum. « Le saut de Maxime Bernier vers le Parti Vert...
So Maxime Bernier jumped to the Green Party! I guess they don't have many people proof reading in French.

That was September 6.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/1f9b2ec4-d506-447c-b352-02fa7258fa89Quebec%20Federal%20Pierre%20Nantel%20Party%20Switch%20FR.pdf

The second time was on their September 11 poll release. In the table of regional numbers the Bloc Quebecois is at 0.2% in Ontario. The Bloc leader made a stop in eastern Ontario during the campaign but it,s weird to publish a number over 0 when there is no candidate in Ontario. It shouldn't be a choice for Ontario voters, or they should ask the province before voting preference and adjust the choices accordingly. Or it was a transcription mistake.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/1d9659c0-79fa-4e7c-8246-45e0f565c42bFed%20Horserace%20Day%201%202019_final.pdf
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1139 on: October 05, 2019, 08:23:59 PM »

Candidate count (by myself, may contain mistakes):
...
Rhinoceros 39
...
Parti pour l’indépendance du Québec 13


Ridings with the least candidates (4):
...
York Centre

I've cut the list just to keep a few things.
Rhino party doesn't run many candidates. Many people are not crazy about the choices so perhaps they could get votes.
I've read about the PIQ. It seems to be the Martine Ouellet followers. people who want a party to only promote independance.

Surprised to see York Centre on the list of least candidates. Urban ridings ususally have many.

York Centre has 4 candidates for 5th time in a row. Last time they got a non Lib/Con/NDP/Grn candidate was 2004 (an independent).
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adma
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« Reply #1140 on: October 05, 2019, 10:43:44 PM »


Robinson didn't want the Conservatives to keep her. Now that she is out, doesn't it make it even harder for him to win. Unless it's a place where there are more CPC-NDP swingers than CPC-Lib swinger, it seems harder to win for him than in a 3 or 4 way race.

What doesn't help is that the Seymour part is spillover from North Van, where the Libs more than doubled the Con incumbent and got their second-best BC share in '15.

*Perhaps* Svend might now be banking more on an ironic retro-Reform "anti-Justin-elite" sentiment?
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adma
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« Reply #1141 on: October 05, 2019, 10:45:55 PM »


Unless the law changed, she is still on the ballot as a Conservative, no?

Much like Jagdish Grewal in Mississauga-Malton in 2015.  (Who still got 26.44% as a "non-Con" Con.)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1142 on: October 05, 2019, 10:46:42 PM »

337.5
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DL
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« Reply #1143 on: October 05, 2019, 10:51:02 PM »

Mainstreet riding poll for Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, done September 29. The main contenders are current/former sovereigntists.

Réjean Hébert, LPC 35
Denis Trudel BQ 28
Pierre Nantel Green 17 (outgoing NDP MP)
Patrick Clune CPC 9
Eric Ferland NPD 5
Ellen Comeau PPC 3

https://www.latribune.ca/actualites/elections-2019/rejean-hebert-en-avance-dans-longueil-saint-hubert-selon-mainstreet-102a75136ee8f5906d6f209164076898

Keep in mind that Sept 29 was the day of the climate strike with Greta Thunberg in Montreal and polling nationally seemed to have given the Greens a momentary "sugar high" for a couple of days...they have dropped a lot since. If Nantel was at 17% on Sept 29. He is probably at 10% by today

Good point. But he is incumbent MP, can get NDP votes, sovereignist vote, Green vote. One of the few known Green candidate so he should do better than generic Green I imagine.

I agree. A "generic Green" would get 5 or 6 percent in Longueuil. Nantel may get 10 or 11 percent.
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adma
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« Reply #1144 on: October 05, 2019, 10:53:37 PM »

Mainstreet riding poll for Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, done September 29. The main contenders are current/former sovereigntists.

Réjean Hébert, LPC 35
Denis Trudel BQ 28
Pierre Nantel Green 17 (outgoing NDP MP)
Patrick Clune CPC 9
Eric Ferland NPD 5
Ellen Comeau PPC 3

https://www.latribune.ca/actualites/elections-2019/rejean-hebert-en-avance-dans-longueil-saint-hubert-selon-mainstreet-102a75136ee8f5906d6f209164076898

Keep in mind that Sept 29 was the day of the climate strike with Greta Thunberg in Montreal and polling nationally seemed to have given the Greens a momentary "sugar high" for a couple of days...they have dropped a lot since. If Nantel was at 17% on Sept 29. He is probably at 10% by today

Good point. But he is incumbent MP, can get NDP votes, sovereignist vote, Green vote. One of the few known Green candidate so he should do better than generic Green I imagine.

Agreed; whatever the fate of the Greens at large, he's probably got a bit of a "Bruce Hyer bump" going for him.

Though that low number for Clune, who's been a perennial "viable" (knock on wood) CPC contender on the South Shore, doesn't bode well for Team Scheer in Quebec.
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Poirot
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« Reply #1145 on: October 06, 2019, 02:54:30 PM »

I've looked at the last election result and Clune in the poll gets the same vote share as the 2015 candidate received.  When I look at some ridings in the ring around Montreal the Copnservatives got 10-12% of votes so to win seats in the suburbs they would have to increase vote share by about 20% if it takes at least 30% to win.

Abacus polled 373 Quebec francophone respondent after the debate on TVA.
Asked which leader did nost to earn your vote, 30% answered Trudeau and Blanchet each, 14% Singh, 10% Scheer.

Asked which leader did most to lose your vote, 36% said Scheer, 26% Trudeau, 13% Blanchet, 8% Singh.

https://abacusdata.ca/french-language-debate-poll-canada-2019/

I find they ask some strange questions. Why not who won the debate, did it change your voting preference.
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136or142
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« Reply #1146 on: October 06, 2019, 03:58:08 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2019, 04:14:34 PM by 136or142 »

After the bidding war of campaign promises reached, to me, an absurd level of unreality, I'm seriously thinking of spoiling my ballot.  Anybody else considering doing that?

Just as a couple examples

Elizabeth May 'The Liberals say they'll plant 2 billion trees, we'll plant 10 billion trees!'

According to economist Kevin Milligan's calculations, the Conservatives total campaign spending promises and tax cuts amount to only $4 billion less per year for the term than the Liberal campaign spending promises and tax cuts.  So, that's roughly $70 billion in new spending compared to the Liberals $80 billion.  

However, the Conservatives also promises to balance the budget in the '5th year.'  Other than cutting foreign aid by 25% which is a drop in the bucket on $70 billion, the Conservatives have not stated what they'll cut.  They are implicitly running on Doug Ford's 'no problem finding efficiencies' lie.  (Or they're lying that they can balance the budget in 'the 5th year.')

The NDP meanwhile is making easy promises of solving problems knowing it will not get elected and have to actually do that.  And especially the sleazy rage filled Charlie Angus is calling out the Liberals for not living up to the false easy promises the NDP are making.

And Justin Trudeau is simply insane.  

I think this is easily the worst Canadian election in my lifetime.  Expressing a vote of no confidence in this campaign and in the leaders by spoiling my ballot is making more and more sense to me.


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Poirot
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« Reply #1147 on: October 06, 2019, 06:08:11 PM »

I have a family member who doesn't want to vote (but usually votes). I think it's because of the election focused on mini-scandals / distractions.

So it's not about promises. It doesn't seem very important to be fiscally prudent. There is not much critique of fiscal plans or real costs of promises.

I don't know if turnout will be lower. Perhaps come election day people will decide to vote for one of the bunch.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1148 on: October 06, 2019, 08:20:23 PM »

Big news in Ontario, CUPE and Ontario government have reached a deal so that means no strike on Monday.  Probably a relief to Scheer as while may not help him, a strike almost certainly would have hurt him and with his horrible showing in the French debate, Quebec is lost for the Tories, so they can ill afford to perform poorly in Ontario as well.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #1149 on: October 06, 2019, 08:43:34 PM »

The English debate will be at 7 pm on Monday, the exact same time that the Leafs will be playing. I am so annoyed. I will probably watch the Leafs game live, and watch the debate tomorrow on YouTube.
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