Canadian Election 2019

[lilTommy]

Riding's, Indigenous%, Previous MPs Party

Nunavut - 85.9%  -  LPC
Churchill–Keewatinook Aski, MB   - 76.3%   -   NDP
Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River, SK - 70.9%   -  NDP
Northwest Territories   -  50.7%  -  LPC
Kenora, ON -  46.8%  -  LPC
Labrador, NL - 43.7%  -  LPC
Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou, QC -  38.2%  -  NDP
Skeena–Bulkley Valley, BC   -  34.1%  -  NDP
Prince Albert, SK - 30.6%  -  CPC
Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa, MB - 26.5%  -  CPC

A number of others with High %

Battlefords--Lloydminster   -  24%
Peace River--Westlock   -  22.79%
Regina--Qu'Appelle  -  20.98%
Long Range Mountains   -  23.57%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman   -   20.53%
Timmins - James Bay   -   19.25%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing   -   19.17%
Manicouagan   -   18.15%
Winnipeg Centre  -  18.51%
Saskatoon West   -  18.5%
Winnipeg North  -  17.89%
Cariboo--Prince George  -  16%
Thunder Bay - Rainy River   -   16%
Thunder Bay - Superior North   -   15%

http://www.cpac.ca/en/cpac-in-focus/census-2016-house-commons-indigenous-identity/

[njwes]

Interesting poll of native Canadians:

Con: 26%
Lib: 21
NDP: 17
Green: 16


n= "1,024 people self-identifying as First Nations, Inuit or Métis"

https://aptnnews.ca/2019/10/02/vote2019-climate-change-and-drinking-water-top-indigenous-issues-in-federal-election/

This sample must be heavily non-reserve, as reserves vote monolithically 90% Liberal or NDP.

Sample:

57% Urban
27% Rural
16% Reserve

[mileslunn]

Interesting poll of native Canadians:

Con: 26%
Lib: 21
NDP: 17
Green: 16


n= "1,024 people self-identifying as First Nations, Inuit or Métis"

https://aptnnews.ca/2019/10/02/vote2019-climate-change-and-drinking-water-top-indigenous-issues-in-federal-election/

This sample must be heavily non-reserve, as reserves vote monolithically 90% Liberal or NDP.

Sample:

57% Urban
27% Rural
16% Reserve

That makes sense.  Also would like to see breakdown between Metis and First Nations as I believe the Tories do much better amongst Metis than they do First Nations.  In Northern ridings though, the Conservatives sometimes do well as it seems candidate more than party drives vote.  Nunavut and Labrador two examples of this which both went Tory in 2011 although swung heavily to Liberals in 2015.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Always be careful with surveys of minorities, particularly ones that are highly internally diverse.

[njwes]

Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever

If the Tories win it won't be a landslide.  One term PMs are quite rare so I think the Tories beating the Liberals in seat count is a steep, but not impossible hill to climb.  Actually winning a majority will require a lot of things falling into place as at the moment they are a long ways away from it.  Now true, if every voter who in the last provincial elections voted for centre-right parties (BC Liberals in 2017, WRP + PC in AB in 2015, Saskatchewan Party in 2016, Manitoba PCs in 2016, Ontario PCs in 2018, CAQ in 2018, NB PCs + People's Alliance in 2018, PEI PC's in 2015, NS PC's in 2017, and NL PC's in 2015) also voted Tory federally, that would be sufficient, but I am skeptical of them doing as well as their provincial counterparts in pretty much every province save Alberta as in all other provinces each one had certain things going for them the federal party lacks.

Yah I know they wont win in a landslide, all Im saying is they deserve to.


I dont think winning a majority is implausible but it depends on what type of campaign they run. If they run a milquetoast campaign and run away from Harper they will lose. They need to run an aggressive campaign

I think their challenges are regional.  Harper is still hated in Atlantic Canada so they can win there but they have to return to their Red Tory roots and that will anger a lot of their base.  Quebec is always a wild card and usually it either embraces them (like 1958, 1984, or 1988) or soundly rejects like in most elections, no in between and usually we don't get any clues until about two weeks before the election.  I think had Horwath won last June or Wynne somehow got back in, the Tories would be in great shape to make gains in Ontario, but since Ford is premier who is very polarizing and divisive, that will probably hurt them there.  Ontario has a long history of voting opposites federally and provincially so with the PCs now in control at Queen's Park, that hurts the chances for the Tories federally.  They already hold the majority of ridings in the Prairies and not enough ones they don't hold to make a big difference.  BC seems to have swung leftward of recent so that could change if the provincial NDP tanks, but at the moment things don't look good for them, at least not in the coastal areas (I live here so I would know) which is the majority of the province.

To be fair, its not all bad for the right in Canada.  Unlike in 2015, we now have four provinces with 2/3 of the population with centre-right governments and that will likely grow to six as in New Brunswick Liberals likely to be defeated on the throne speech this Friday thus making room for the PCs and Alberta will likely swing rightward next May provincially.  So in all probability you will have over 80% of Canadians living in provinces with centre-right provincial governments so having a centre-left federally sort of balances things out.

I didn't see any cross-tabs--and I imagine the MoE would make such results really unreliable--but this was the "ethnic" breakdown:

60% First Nations
36% Métis
4% Inuk/Inuit/Inuvialuit

[RogueBeaver]

Scheer has dual American citizenship which he is currently renouncing.

[lilTommy]

Scheer has dual American citizenship which he is currently renouncing.

Why?
Mulcair has French dual citizenship, and he did not renounce in 2015 (from what I recall) It is not a requirement for Canadian politicians to only be Canadian citizens as far as I know.

[mileslunn]

Scheer has dual American citizenship which he is currently renouncing.

Why?
Mulcair has French dual citizenship, and he did not renounce in 2015 (from what I recall) It is not a requirement for Canadian politicians to only be Canadian citizens as far as I know.

Party attacked Dion and Mulcair over this so looks hypocritical.  Also doesn't want to be compared to GOP either.

[Poirot]

Scheer was on the defensive at the start of the debate. First topic discussed abortion. Seems like other poarties have managed to make social issues an election issue. So most opinions are Scheer had a rough night. Singh was warm and authentic. Blanchet was at ease but some didn't like the professor tone. Trudeau was not constantly under attack for the incumbent.

[DC Al Fine]

Scheer has dual American citizenship which he is currently renouncing.

Why?
Mulcair has French dual citizenship, and he did not renounce in 2015 (from what I recall) It is not a requirement for Canadian politicians to only be Canadian citizens as far as I know.

American citizenship lines up with the scary right winger attacks.

[brucejoel99]

Scheer has dual American citizenship which he is currently renouncing.

He's the reverse Ted Cruz.

[DL]

Look what a difference it makes when a riding poll gives names of local candidates and not just party names. Ruth Ellen Brosseau of the NDP has a solid lead in her riding

https://www.lenouvelliste.ca/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreetle-nouvelliste-ruth-ellen-brosseau-en-avance-4607807cf318e4b2f98464ccb10f20fa

[lilTommy]

Look what a difference it makes when a riding poll gives names of local candidates and not just party names. Ruth Ellen Brosseau of the NDP has a solid lead in her riding

https://www.lenouvelliste.ca/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreetle-nouvelliste-ruth-ellen-brosseau-en-avance-4607807cf318e4b2f98464ccb10f20fa

THIS!
When you don't provide local context, this how polling is used to sku, to mis-inform and to actually try and sway an election. Voters always vote, effectively, twice; the candidate on the ballot and the party.

Anyway, I always thought REB was "mostly safe"
I'd like to see how the other dozen or so NPD held ridings would be polled now, My hunch is the NPD could hold 4-6 mostly on the local candidate. (Caron, Boulerice, REB, PLD) I think demographically Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Hochelaga are likely to be NPD holds even without incumbents. 
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou I think the NPDs candidate has a strong chance, more then in Abitibi—Témiscamingue, but QS was elected out this way so the advantage might be the NPD there.
The rest, probably lost to the LPC or BQ, unless the NPD is lucky. 

[vileplume]

Look what a difference it makes when a riding poll gives names of local candidates and not just party names. Ruth Ellen Brosseau of the NDP has a solid lead in her riding

https://www.lenouvelliste.ca/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreetle-nouvelliste-ruth-ellen-brosseau-en-avance-4607807cf318e4b2f98464ccb10f20fa

THIS!
When you don't provide local context, this how polling is used to sku, to mis-inform and to actually try and sway an election. Voters always vote, effectively, twice; the candidate on the ballot and the party.

Anyway, I always thought REB was "mostly safe"
I'd like to see how the other dozen or so NPD held ridings would be polled now, My hunch is the NPD could hold 4-6 mostly on the local candidate. (Caron, Boulerice, REB, PLD) I think demographically Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Hochelaga are likely to be NPD holds even without incumbents.  
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou I think the NPDs candidate has a strong chance, more then in Abitibi—Témiscamingue, but QS was elected out this way so the advantage might be the NPD there.
The rest, probably lost to the LPC or BQ, unless the NPD is lucky.  

Not necessarily, beware local polls with named candidates particularly because the kind of people likely to respond to such surveys tend to have much greater political knowledge than the electorate at large. At the end of the day most 'normal' people have a much stronger opinion on the national party leaders than they do on local candidates (often they don't even know or even care who's standing for their local district) and thus primarily vote based on which leader/party they want to be in charge of the country. In the UK in 2015 for example local constituency polls had the Lib Dems holding lots of constituencies particularly in the West Country based on the personal popularity of the incumbent. In the end virtually all of their MPs (even in seats considered safe like Yeovil) went down in flames as they were dragged down by the huge anti-Lib Dem movement of the country as a whole.

Whilst I don't claim to be an expert on Quebec, it is very unlikely that Ruth Ellen-Brosseau's riding will completely buck the movement of the province as a whole. Thus if the NDP does as appallingly in Quebec as the polls are suggesting, it's very likely she'll be dragged down by the tide regardless of any personal popularity (which is usually grossly exaggerated anyway) that she may have.

[DL]

FYI, it’s the local candidates whose names appear on the ballot. Usually a strong local candidate can mean a 5% premium at most but then there are cases of certain MPs who keep bucking the trend. Ralph Goodale should have lost Wascana as a Liberal in each of the last five elections and Kevin Lamoureux winning Winnipeg North for the Liberals when they were getting steamrollered is another. Why did Jean Charest survive in 1993 when every other Tory in Quebec was blown out of the water? I also wonder whether local incumbents may do better than usual in this election because the whole campaign has been so dull and listless and no one seems to have any momentum. In that context more people vote locally

[MaxQue]

Look what a difference it makes when a riding poll gives names of local candidates and not just party names. Ruth Ellen Brosseau of the NDP has a solid lead in her riding

https://www.lenouvelliste.ca/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreetle-nouvelliste-ruth-ellen-brosseau-en-avance-4607807cf318e4b2f98464ccb10f20fa

THIS!
When you don't provide local context, this how polling is used to sku, to mis-inform and to actually try and sway an election. Voters always vote, effectively, twice; the candidate on the ballot and the party.

Anyway, I always thought REB was "mostly safe"
I'd like to see how the other dozen or so NPD held ridings would be polled now, My hunch is the NPD could hold 4-6 mostly on the local candidate. (Caron, Boulerice, REB, PLD) I think demographically Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Hochelaga are likely to be NPD holds even without incumbents.  
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou I think the NPDs candidate has a strong chance, more then in Abitibi—Témiscamingue, but QS was elected out this way so the advantage might be the NPD there.
The rest, probably lost to the LPC or BQ, unless the NPD is lucky.  

Not necessarily, beware local polls with named candidates particularly because the kind of people likely to respond to such surveys tend to have much greater political knowledge than the electorate at large. At the end of the day most 'normal' people have a much stronger opinion on the national party leaders than they do on local candidates (often they don't even know or even care who's standing for their local district) and thus primarily vote based on which leader/party they want to be in charge of the country. In the UK in 2015 for example local constituency polls had the Lib Dems holding lots of constituencies particularly in the West Country based on the personal popularity of the incumbent. In the end virtually all of their MPs (even in seats considered safe like Yeovil) went down in flames as they were dragged down by the huge anti-Lib Dem movement of the country as a whole.

Whilst I don't claim to be an expert on Quebec, it is very unlikely that Ruth Ellen-Brosseau's riding will completely buck the movement of the province as a whole. Thus if the NDP does as appallingly in Quebec as the polls are suggesting, it's very likely she'll be dragged down by the tide regardless of any personal popularity (which is usually grossly exaggerated anyway) that she may have.

She actually has some decent popularity and was one of two NDP candidates in Quebec who got more votes and share in 2015 than in 2011.

[DL]

This poll can also be a self fulfilling prophecy for Brosseau. It’s an above the fold front page story in local media and it will likely drive Liberal voters to vote strategically for her to stop the BQ

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, if there's one NDP candidate who will punch above their weight, it's REB. This is fantastic news!

It really does put into doubt some of the riding polling that we've seen. Candidate names change things a lot. Case in point: Our polling for the debate commission vs. our internal numbers.

I'm sure lots of people in her riding don't really think of themselves as "voting NDP" and don't select that option when answering a survey without candidate names.

[MaxQue]

Yeah, if there's one NDP candidate who will punch above their weight, it's REB. This is fantastic news!

It really does put into doubt some of the riding polling that we've seen. Candidate names change things a lot. Case in point: Our polling for the debate commission vs. our internal numbers.

I'm sure lots of people in her riding don't really think of themselves as "voting NDP" and don't select that option when answering a survey without candidate names.

Also ND signs in Quebec have a tiny NDP logo (and an even tinier "Jagmeet Singh" mention). In some ridings, NDP signs are not orange either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Constituency polling is something to be highly cautious of (as I believe it is traditional for me to say), but Brosseau somehow being re-elected once more would be very Banter Era.

[mileslunn]

FYI, it’s the local candidates whose names appear on the ballot. Usually a strong local candidate can mean a 5% premium at most but then there are cases of certain MPs who keep bucking the trend. Ralph Goodale should have lost Wascana as a Liberal in each of the last five elections and Kevin Lamoureux winning Winnipeg North for the Liberals when they were getting steamrollered is another. Why did Jean Charest survive in 1993 when every other Tory in Quebec was blown out of the water? I also wonder whether local incumbents may do better than usual in this election because the whole campaign has been so dull and listless and no one seems to have any momentum. In that context more people vote locally

And don't forget Andre Bachand in 2000.  The PCs got 5% in Quebec that time around and in most ridings failed to get their deposit back including adjacent ones, yet he still won, so it does happen.  I think this is especially true if a party with zero chance at winning, people if they dislike the two main party leaders may then be willing to look at local candidate.  With Liberals and Tories probably only 5-10% variance at most since most Canadians have a strong opinion on those parties and a lot want to ensure either Trudeau or Scheer don't win thus won't vote for that party regardless of candidate.

[MaxQue]

FYI, it’s the local candidates whose names appear on the ballot. Usually a strong local candidate can mean a 5% premium at most but then there are cases of certain MPs who keep bucking the trend. Ralph Goodale should have lost Wascana as a Liberal in each of the last five elections and Kevin Lamoureux winning Winnipeg North for the Liberals when they were getting steamrollered is another. Why did Jean Charest survive in 1993 when every other Tory in Quebec was blown out of the water? I also wonder whether local incumbents may do better than usual in this election because the whole campaign has been so dull and listless and no one seems to have any momentum. In that context more people vote locally

And don't forget Andre Bachand in 2000.  The PCs got 5% in Quebec that time around and in most ridings failed to get their deposit back including adjacent ones, yet he still won, so it does happen.  I think this is especially true if a party with zero chance at winning, people if they dislike the two main party leaders may then be willing to look at local candidate.  With Liberals and Tories probably only 5-10% variance at most since most Canadians have a strong opinion on those parties and a lot want to ensure either Trudeau or Scheer don't win thus won't vote for that party regardless of candidate.

Or Sherbrooke with Jean Charest. He got 60% in 1997 and the party got 6% in by-election to replace him in 1998.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, if there's one NDP candidate who will punch above their weight, it's REB. This is fantastic news!

It really does put into doubt some of the riding polling that we've seen. Candidate names change things a lot. Case in point: Our polling for the debate commission vs. our internal numbers.

I'm sure lots of people in her riding don't really think of themselves as "voting NDP" and don't select that option when answering a survey without candidate names.

Also ND signs in Quebec have a tiny NDP logo (and an even tinier "Jagmeet Singh" mention). In some ridings, NDP signs are not orange either.

What colour are they?

[MaxQue]

Yeah, if there's one NDP candidate who will punch above their weight, it's REB. This is fantastic news!

It really does put into doubt some of the riding polling that we've seen. Candidate names change things a lot. Case in point: Our polling for the debate commission vs. our internal numbers.

I'm sure lots of people in her riding don't really think of themselves as "voting NDP" and don't select that option when answering a survey without candidate names.

Also ND signs in Quebec have a tiny NDP logo (and an even tinier "Jagmeet Singh" mention). In some ridings, NDP signs are not orange either.

What colour are they?

Light blue landscape, like in this video. (https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2019/09/12/beaucoup-moins-de-pancartes-electorales-dans-trois-rivieres)

[King of Kensington]

Conservatives drop Heather Leung in Burnaby North-Seymour.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/heather-leung-campaign-media-strategy-1.5308429