NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[Sol]

New DNS registrations suggest Anita Earls is gonna get in.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1334346665679937536?s=20

I love Anita Earls, but we need her at the State Supreme Court, and she's probably too left-leaning to win a federal election without a strong wind at her back.

[Sol]

You know, I like Jeff Jackson as much as the next guy, and I really hope I'm missing something, but looking at the numbers I'm just not really seeing how a win is super feasible here. I mean, it looks like NC's trend has slowed to a snail's pace, and Jackson is going to have to improve on Biden's margin by at least a point or so in a midterm environment. That's certainly not impossible, and it's a damn sight more likely than Ohio or Iowa, but unless something big happens I just don't see how Republicans aren't the very clear favorites.

The case for Jeff Jackson imo is that he's sort of cut in the mold of Beto O'Rourke 2018, as you can see from his desire to aggressively canvass all over the state. He's a strong public speaker and fairly communications-savvy--he built up a ton of name recognition across the state during the pandemic by releasing and aggressively publicizing* press releases, and he's been doing similar things for years.

That doesn't mean he'd win, but there's a decent case that he could overperform the usual Democratic ceilings in the state.

*And I mean aggressive--he's a regular poster in basically every NC local subreddit.

[Sol]

I know this is a meme worthy question but I am legitimately wondering: would Smith's supposed Tulsi-esque DINO status help her get a surprisingly strong showing among #populist rural white voters?

Erica Smith's "DINO status"--which I think is an inaccurate label-- is more based on her poor relationship with Democratic party, both national and statewide.

I suspect Smith was personally offended by the Schumer-induced coronation of Cal Cunningham, a relative no-name who had been out of office for years and who had basically equivalent experience to her. It's fairly obvious IMO that the DSCC went with Cunningham over her because of her race, since the two were basically identical in every other respect.

With regards to the statewide Democratic party, Smith has been repeatedly harassed and threatened by other members of the Senate Democratic caucus, and it seems like that's fostered bad blood, very understandably.

On a personal note, I met Smith when I was doing some lobbying for fair districting in the General Assembly, and she was incredibly friendly, noticeably more so than most other legislators. I'm not the world's biggest fan of her or anything--I don't think she's a great campaigner, and her weird attempt to ratf[inks] Jeff Jackson last fall I think shows that--but she seems to be sincerely left-wing and I sympathize a lot with her, since she's gotten a raw deal in quite a few ways. When she loses this primary (and she will, Jeff Jackson will probably win by more than Cunningham), I hope she's able to run for Butterfield's seat when he retires.

[Sol]

Jackson vs. McCrory is the best-case scenario for Democrats.

Mark Robinson? Madison Cawthorn? Lara Trump? The NC Republican bench is wide and full of terrible candidates. I’m not even sure McCrory would remain a particularly weak candidate with his bathroom bill debacle 6+ years behind him.

McCrory is a wet noodle who wouldn't energize the base, unlike the people above. That's probably more useful for Democrats.

[Sol]

I met Pat McCrory while he was a "visiting scholar" at UNC-Chapel Hill in 2018 with the Institute of Politics. He held office hours periodically, where any student could reserve time to meet with him, and myself and a few friends met did just that.

There were two takeaways I had from meeting with him: one is that he's a bit of an idiot--he seemed to think that Deval Patrick would have a good shot at winning the Democratic nomination, for example.

But the second was very striking--he seems to believe that he was "brought down" in 2016. The meeting with him was suffused with his obvious bitterness over that election, and he seemed to blame Soros-esque paid protestors as the reason for the public outcry over HB2. He also seemed to be favorable towards a "stolen election"-type narrative regarding 2016 as well.

I point this out to argue that McCrory is clearly a bit of Trumpian figure in his own way, though he lacks the requisite charisma.

[Sol]

Jackson vs. McCrory is the best-case scenario for Democrats.

Mark Robinson? Madison Cawthorn? Lara Trump? The NC Republican bench is wide and full of terrible candidates. I’m not even sure McCrory would remain a particularly weak candidate with his bathroom bill debacle 6+ years behind him.

McCrory is a wet noodle who wouldn't energize the base, unlike the people above. That's probably more useful for Democrats.

McCrory being a wet noodle probably hurts more than I'd considered (I forgot there wasn't any other high-profile election on the NC ballot in 2022), but I think Cawthorn has plenty of capacity to annoy his own supporters. As for Lara Trump, I suspect that she'll be about as well-received (relative to the original Trump) about as well as any scion of a well-known national political dynasty (i.e. not well). McCrory still strikes me as a bad candidate but I maintain that there are worse choices for NC Republicans.

Cawthorn won't be old enough.

[Sol]

I hope the DSCC doesn't endorse in this race. That's a big mistake they made in 2020.

In what way was their intervention in 2020 a mistake?

They coronated Cal Cunningham, a relatively unqualified nobody, which prevented a wider array of options from running.

[Sol]

I hope the DSCC doesn't endorse in this race. That's a big mistake they made in 2020.

In what way was their intervention in 2020 a mistake?

They coronated Cal Cunningham, a relatively unqualified nobody, which prevented a wider array of options from running.

They also forced out Jeff Jackson, who probably would have won.

As I’ve explained elsewhere, there are a few common misconceptions in the above posts.  A few quick facts that often get overlooked:

1) Cunningham was not the DSCC’s first, second, third, or fourth choice.  

The DSCC’s first choice was Cooper, but he decided to run for reelection.  Then they turned to Josh Stein with the same result.  They then tried really hard to recruit Anthony Foxx, but he wasn’t interested for reasons unknown.  They looked at Winston-Salem Mayor Allen Joines, but he wasn’t interested.  They very briefly looked at former Congressman Brad Miller, but decided he was the wrong candidate and Miller turned out not to be interested either.  Next, they looked at former Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker and Former NC Treasurer Richard Moore, but IIRC decided they were has-beens who were always kinda overhyped.  Then they tried to recruit former NC Treasurer Janet Cowell who was leaning toward running, but the DSCC’s opposition research team dug up some scandals with her IIRC and decided they needed someone else.  Which brings us to point two...

2) The DSCC did not force out a would-be winning candidate in 2020, it dodged a bullet by keeping Jackson out.  

Finally, the DSCC turned to Josh Jackson...only to find out that he had somehow concluded that the way to win was to do almost literally no fundraising and completely surrender the airwaves to Tillis (or rather, leave ads exclusively to Dem-allied PACs).  

IIRC Schumer indicated that the DSCC would back him if he would commit to doing at least some fundraising, but Jackson refused and that left the DSCC with no one but a random DINO state Senator (Erica Smith).  At this point, the DSCC played the crappy hand it had been dealt and went with Cunningham.  In the meantime, we kept Jackson on the bench for a later campaign whenever he could be made to see reason (and IIRC he eventually accepted you have to fundraise some to win a Senate race).

3) The DSCC definitely had the right strategy in the race.  

People forget what this race looked like before Cunningham got hit with a late-breaking scandal, handled it horribly, faced an aggressively hostile local media, and basically spent the closing stretch hiding from the media.  Even with polling error, it’s pretty likely that Cunningham would’ve won but for that unforeseeable scandal and its aftermath.  

And despite all that, he still only lost by a hair and even outperformed Biden in a few noteworthy places like Union County IIRC.  That suggests that the DSCC - and not Jackson - had the right strategy, but Cunningham’s unforeseeable scandal/horrible handling of said scandal blew the race.  Lastly...

4) If you’re gonna blame Schumer for stuff like this that really isn’t his fault then you’ve also gotta give him credit for things like Osoff and Warnock winning, recruiting Mark Kelly, flipping the Senate, etc.  

This is the second time we’ve flipped the Senate on his watch when few thought we had a real shot at doing so at the beginning of the election cycle.  Between 2006 (when he ran the DSCC), 2008 (IIRC he remained head of the DSCC), and 2020 (when everyone seemed to conflate Schumer with the DSCC), it sure looks like the man knows what he’s doing and has a pretty good track record.  And before anyone brings up 2010, Schumer wasn’t involved with the DSCC that cycle (nor was he in 2012, 2014, or 2016 for that matter).

This is totally wrong. Jackson was intending to run in the style of Beto--something which he likely could have pulled off since he's a relatively charismatic guy and a strong communicator.

[Sol]

I saw someone here or maybe elsewhere say that the reason why North Carolina hasn’t flipped like Georgia, Virginia etc is because while the metro areas have expanded there’s been a huge turnout in the rural parts of the state and the democrats really need to find a way to improve there- how true is that?

Unlike Georgia or Virginia, North Carolina is a state of mid-sized cities, rather than having one big diverse metro area. Consequently, many of these smaller cities, like Charlotte, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, etc. have sizable Republican suburbs which are the base of the state GOP. Places like Union County, Davidson County, Henderson County, etc. are the heart of the state GOP. Compare to say, NoVa, where even exurban places like Stafford County voted Biden.

The abortion comment prompted it; North Carolina isn’t exactly a Deep South state on social issues is it?

NC is certainly more liberal than any deep south state on social issues (including probably even Georgia) but is still a good bit to the right of the national average on these sorts of things. White Southern Republicans are much more religious and therefore more socially conservative than their counterparts elsewhere, especially than in the West and NE.

Black people also have plenty of diversity in terms of social views, even though they're pretty reliable Democrats, and there are plenty of socially conservative Black people. This shouldn't be overstated IMO--sometimes you hear people talk about Black voters as if they're some Socon monolith when this is not true, and plenty of Black people hold very socially liberal views. (This sometimes serves as kind of a mendacious racist myth in more progressive circles). In the 2012 NC gay marriage referendum, Black voters probably voted about the same as white voters or slightly more 'against,' and iirc Prop. 8 had similar results.

[Sol]

Wouldn't be too worried if I were the GOP around Asheville -- I bet most of that swing is a function of turnout gaps. A lot of those counties have a strongish minority of white liberals--i.e. the demo which had the best turnout this year.

But yeah the Triangle is obviously a stress point. Democrats kept every House and Senate seat there except Erin Pare's House seat (37), which voted for Trump by like three points--a big disappontment for Rs since they were definitely shooting for a couple more.

Johnston County has some interest in the medium term--Clayton doesn't really vote too differently from Fuquay-Varina even now, but it's also seen fairly robust Black population growth as it's right next to Black suburbia in Wake County along U.S. Route 70. HD-80 is probably safe for a while but it isn't crazy imo to think it could flip like HD-73 did this year in, say 2028.

Similarly, I have to think Franklin County has similar issues--it's closely linked to Wake Forest and other areas along Capital Boulevard, and I wouldn't be surprised if the southern part of the county follows their lead politically--which matters since there's a strongish Democratic floor in the north of the county.

[Sol]

Idk if it's just me but it feels like Asheville's influence extends a bit "too far". There is a clear geopolitical divide between the TN/NC border that I've never really understood, and it's only seemed to grow larger in recent cycles.

Really IMO most of WNC votes like East TN or slightly to the left, so not too hard to explain. (The weaker margins in places are often explicable on account of parts of WNC being not as unionist as East Tennessee)

You have the Qualla Boundary and Western, whose voting patterns shouldn't be too surprising, and Boone, which also shouldn't be too shocking.

Really then it's mainly the counties around Asheville that need explanation. Some are historically Democratic leaning due to supporting the Confederacy, while others, like Madison County, were Republican until the 50s, when weakened party loyalty due to generational turnover allowed strong Democratic party organizations like the Ponder Machine to emerge.

The Democratic history in a lot of the rest of WNC has decayed normally, but the machines in a lot of the counties around Asheville were quite robust. They were also reinforced by a fairly strong hippie presence, spilling over from Asheville, which is why a lot of the surrounds aren't that right wing.