Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Velasco]

On the other hand, a victory of Ayuso and the rightwing block will surely aggravate political tension in Spain. I don't want to imagine how rhings are going to be with the increasing influence of Vox, which is revealing as one of the worst far-right parties in Europe (the infamous poster resembles Germany in the 1930s).  If I was in the PSOE and the outcome of the elections is like this poll predicts, I would suggest offering confidence and supply to the PP to isolate Vox. It won't happen and Ayuso looks like she would be happy working with Monasterio.

For the record. Back in the day Iñigo Errejón offered the support of Más Madrid deputies in the regional assembly to PSOE and Cs. That offer was made in exchange for nothing, with the only purpose to prevent the influence of Vox in the government of the Madrid region. Cs rejected the offer out of hand.

Now we are facing the consequences of that decision. Cs enabled and whitewashed Vox since that infamous picture at Colón Square and it's on the brink of disappearing, while the PP under Casado and Ayuso has been abduced by the Trumpist rhetoric and is set to become the hostage of Vox. The only way to put an end to this downward spiral is isolating those who preach racist and hateful speech, breaking the perverse dynanics of block politics and affective polarization. This requires a pact between the democratic forces, establishing a cordon sanitaire or changing the mechanisms of investiture (for instance, Basque Country and Asturias have a system that prevents lockdowns)

What is happening rhese days in Madrid is extremely serious and apparently nobody is paying attention

On a separate note, just heard in the news ERC candidate Pere Aragonès will meet JxCAT secretary general Jordi Sánchez within a couple of hours at Lledoners prison,  in order to make progress in negotiations for the formation of government in Catalonia

[Velasco]

Average polling for regional elections is something like: PP 41%, PSOE 22%, MM 15%, Vox 9%, UP 8% and Cs 3%

Keeping in mind the result of Mas Madrid in 2019 was better in the city in comparison to the region, I expect MM gets at least 17% or 18% in the city and hopefully 30% in the district of Centro. The results of the PP are usually better in the city as well (1% or 2% above the regional result). Possibly the PSOE will get in the city a result 1% or 2% below its regional result. Vox and UP will be also slightly below their regional averages

[Velasco]

The propaganda tecniques of the far-right party Vox

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2021-04-28/how-spains-far-right-vox-party-copies-nazi-propaganda-techniques.html

 The propaganda techniques that Spain’s far-right Vox party has adopted in its campaign for the Madrid regional election of May 4 were already tried and tested in Germany by the Nazis.

A campaign poster criticizing the cost to the state of foreign unaccompanied minors and the use of insults such as ‘rat’ are reminiscent of formulas used by Hitler to disseminate hate messages.

Both the campaign billboard in which Vox attacks the cost to the Madrid region of unaccompanied migrant minors, and the words used to dehumanize the leftist Unidas Podemos candidate, Pablo Iglesias, such as “rat” and “hunchback,” mirror strategies used by Hitler’s National Socialist German Workers’ Party to win over millions of Germans in their drive to persecute and annihilate not only the Jews but also the disabled and sick.

Using the word mena – an acronym with negative connotations for unaccompanied foreign minors – Vox’s juxtaposition of the €4,700 it allegedly costs to maintain a migrant minor with the €426 in pension payments received by “your grandma” has one clear goal: to vilify and expel unaccompanied children and teenagers from Spain, as Vox candidate Rocío Monasterio has made clear. The billboard has been strategically placed in various commuter train stations around Madrid, but not only is it inaccurate, it is also under investigation by the prosecutor’s office as an alleged hate crime.

So, now Ayuso almost, also, received bullets in her mail. The postal services in Barcelona intercepted a package with bullets addressed to her.

I rhink there was another message sent to María Gámez. Pure madness.

Hello! I've been lurking for some days now and I only wanted to express how grateful I am for you to be sharing so much information about the Madrid election, and the high quality of the debate here

Glad to have you here. Best regards

[Velasco]

I don't know if we'll get real or even semi-real polls this week. I wouldn't give a gram of credibility to Electomania "polls".

Suddenly it came to my mind all the time wasted in that cesspool and the far-right troll who went mad and attacked me in such a rabid fashion. It seems to me "pensador" or someone else have found a livelihood or a business

[Velasco]

I don't think we'll have polls from Andorra (GESOP was spotted on in the last Catalan elections, ftr), but El Periódico has its own panel of experts predicting the result for us

Today's prediction

PP 59 (40.5%)
PSOE 32 (22%)
MM 22 (15.7%)
UP 13 (9.4%)
VOX 10 (7.4%)
CS 0 (3.4%)

Not very different from other polls or 'panels' , aside that Vox and UP exchange places with regards polling average. The result predicted for the left is 2% above polling average,  similar to the 2019 result

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20210428/quien-ganara-elecciones-comunidad-madrid-2021-predicciones-11638576

[Velasco]

I was out this weekend and only watched a bit of the MM last rally yesterday's night in Twitch, with Iñigo Errejón and Mónica García.  I think there's some consensus in saying Más Madrid performed the best campaign and the short videos Errejon was iploading to Facebook or Twitter were excellent, well focused on issues that affect common people (such as inequality or mental health problems aggravated by the pandemic) and with a clear ñanguage, in the antipodes of demagoguery and affective polarization.  The Más Madrid candidate emphasizes that she represents empathy in opposition of the egotism and hatred of Ayuso and Monasterio. Yes, I'm rooting foe Más Madrid and perhaps biased. Said this, I'm not very optinistic about the chances of the leftwing parties to govern.

As for Pablo Iglesias,  keep in mind that before his landing in the Madrid campaign, UP was below the 5% threshold in some polls.  Regardless polls predict a modest result for UP, one of the main strategic goals is apparently fulfilled, that is ensuring parliamentary representation. I think Iglesias has shown signs of weariness during this campaign. After the elections Pablo Iglesias will be semi-retired, although it's possible he will continue as Podemos secretary general and member of the Madrid regional assembly for a while. From now on the UP's starring role will be for Yolanda Díaz, who is a PCE and not a Podemos or IU member

[Velasco]

The article linked below explains a little what's at stake in today's elections. All or Nothing gamble for the PP candidate Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who shamelessly used the regional holiday on May 2 to compare the resistance of the Madrid's people against Napoleonic troops to her conflict with Pedro Sánchez and the central government. The left has been campaigning on getting out the vote, for a high mobilization in low income areas is neccessary to have chances of victory.  But high turnout might not be enough, because the opposite camp is highly motivated and Madrid has been consistently a rightwing stronghold for the last 26 years. The left only achieved two victories and one draw during this period:

● 2003 regional elections. PP came first, but PSOE and IU won a narrow majority. The defection of the PSOE deputies Tamayo and Sáez, whom tefused to back the investiture of a leftwing coalition government amidst a great scandal, led to the repetition of elections. Tne  PP won a narrow majority months later, inaugurating the era of Esperanza Aguirre and the big corruption scandals.

● 2004 regional elections.  The vote took place days after the Madrid train bombings. The PSOE led by JL Rodríguez Zapatero achieved a surprise victory.  In the province of Madrid PP and PSOE came virtually tied and the left won a majority adding the IU vote

● 2015 regional elections.  PP and Cs won a narrow majority over PSOE and Podemos. IU got 4.2% of the vote, failing to win seats because of the 5% threshold. In case IU had been above threshold, the left would have governed. However, the election result in terms of left/right vote was actually a tie or a very narrow rightwing victory if we add Vox and UPYD results to PP and Cs

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2021-05-03/madrid-regional-election-becomes-a-national-test-for-spain.html

Madrileños will on Tuesday go to the polls in a regional election that’s being widely viewed as a test with national repercussions in an increasingly polarized country.

The vote comes two years ahead of schedule following a decision by Madrid premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who is seeking to reinforce her hold over a political and economic powerhouse that’s been governed by her conservative Popular Party (PP) party for the last 26 years.

A lot is at stake for all parties involved whether they lie on the right, the left or the center of the political spectrum, and the campaign has been marked by epic rhetoric framing the ballot as a choice between “freedom and communism” for some, and between “democracy and fascism” for others. In a further sign of the current political climate, several candidates received death threats in the mail, forcing the government to step up security even as the campaign descended into a toxic exchange of accusations (...)

[Velasco]

Taxes in Andorra are even lower and recently there have been a controversy around certain youtubers moving their residence there, in order to avoid paying taxes in Spain.

Lower taxes attract millionaires to Madrid, for the higher incomes are the most favored by the tax system ruling in the Spain's capital region.

Low taxes are not the reason for economic prosperity in Madrid. Rather, the latter is a consequence of the capital status and a concentration of wealth favored by globalization.  Indeed, Madrid is like a black hole that empties the regions surrounding her. For that reason tax dumping and tax decentralization are damaging for Spain's territorial cohesion.

On the other hand, in this context of pandemic and social crisis, tax cuts mostly reveal a deep lack of solidarity with the rest of Spain. Moreover, they go against the global trend inaugurated by  the tax and stimulus plans proposed by Joe Biden

In my opinion, it's absolutely regrettable the left has been unable to campaign on a just tax system. Especially the PSOE

[Velasco]

Sidenote: I find my region's record on this absolutely impressive by the way given it is one of the poorest in the country! CC may have been a bunch of corrupt f*** who kept the region dead last on every metric from education and healthcare to unemployment and GDP/capita and inequality, but they have a surprisingly magnificent record on keeping a balanced budget! Truly impressive stuff so credit where credit is due

It seems to me that having a balanced budget is more easy when you have no mercy in cutting social spending. I'm not impressed at all at the performance of Madrid or the Canary Islands. Madrid is the richest region, but the pandemic has revealed the weaknesses caused by the lack of appropiate funding that affect the public healthcare system. The Canary Islands have the worst healthcare system, according to surveys that measure the opinion of users (Basque Country and Asturias are usually on the top of the ranking). Thankfully the archipielago has not been hardly beaten by the virus and now there 's a decent government replacing that bunch of corrupt neoliberals.

PSOE don't engage in it, because you can't talk about a fair taxation system without also calling into question the assymetry of Spain's federalism. That's a can of worms the party, internally, cannot open, even if it probably has some political capital in some places. But Puig for example governs with the regionalists in Valencia and has contracts to give out to his friends. PSC can't afford to lose any upper-middle-class-but-sane-hispanophile they have left. And in general the regional barons like having their credit cards and autonomous budgets.

Ayuso is engaging in Reaganite bunk economics with a sprinkling of Convergent burden avoiding, which is basically tax cuts for the rich without actually reducing spending and then blaming other actors within the federal model for creating debt. What she is proposing for Madrid is no better than what the Convergents were trying to carve out for Catalonia, hence my "Madrid Ens Roba redux" comment. Only she is going to be even more fiscally irresponsible.

A reminder that the reason Spanish debt caught people out during the Eurozone crisis was because the men in suits in Frankfurt were calculating only the federal government's debt and not the ones of the communities, where the Ayusos or Isabel Diaz (doesn't matter their political colour) were ordering the public leveraging of airports for every city and stadia for every country. Its better monitored now but the Spanish government in still the one people look for solutions to while the regional governments buy off xyz electorate with either tax cuts or good old fashioned clientelism.

Its a broken system. In the end its actually a good argument for independence of these places. I've made my peace with the dissolution of Belgium for similar reasons.

Spain needs desperately a comprehensive federal reform that clarifies the roles of central and regional governments. Currently we don't have a proper federal system based on co-responsibility, but a rather disfunctional model of decentralization called "state of the sutonomies". Federalism in Spain has to be neccessarily asymmetric,  due to the existence of historical nationalities and the deeply entrenched special regime of Basque Country and Navarra. Pasqual Maragall advocated "asymmetric federalism" from Catalonia back in the day -and I think it was not a bad idea, despite he was lambasted from every side. I'm afraid that Spain is even more complicated than Belgium

[Velasco]

Turnout map

https://twitter.com/Guerraeterna/status/1389636538296905733?s=19

[Velasco]

I don't think the result will be as good for Ayuso and Monasterio as Michavila says, but anyway.  It's clear the left won't make it. Más Madrid will get a good result, but probably it won't overtake the PSOE. D.E.P. Cs; Vox is now the indispensable ally

[Velasco]

The PP could govern in its own, because it has more seats than the left and Vox would not vote against. They hope to reach as nuch as 66 seats. Terrible

Casado soeaking now.  "Ayuso is the regional president Madrid deserves". True

Casado also says "freedom" won. Not sure if he means the neoliberal or the Trumpist definition of "freedom", but whatever

[Velasco]

I heard rhe PP is leading in Puente de Vallecas. 26% plurality or so 

Salvini congratulates Ayuso

[Velasco]

Isn't Puente de Vallecas among the safest districts in Madrid for the left?

Indeed, in fact the right is only taking 36% of the vote with 85% of the district in.

Problem is the PSOE and MM are taking almost the same % each, which allows a plurality win for the PP.

Feeling sorry for Ángel Gabilondo. He never stood a chance.

Ángel Gabilondo is an excellent person and he 's not responsible for this catastrophe.The PSOE campaign was directed by Iván Redondo et alii from La Moncloa

 

[Velasco]

I heard rhe PP is leading in Puente de Vallecas. 26% plurality or so 

Hope this doesn't hold, I'd have to eat crow if it does 😬

I said earlier Michavila was exaggerating the PP landslide

[Velasco]

It's happening

Más Madrid overtakes PSOE by a hair with 95% of the votes counted

Mónica García will be the leader of the opposition

[Velasco]

Bittersweet sensations, personally. Mónica García and Iñigo Errejón performed a great campaign,  but Madrid is overwhelmingly rightwing

[Velasco]

PP, Vox and UP overperformed and PSOE underperformed, let's see if PSOE abstain too Ayuso make a government without Vox, but I doubt it.

PP can govern in its own if Vox abstains in a second Investiture vote,  because the leftwing parties amount less seats. I'd say that's the most likely outcome

Also, Ayuso stated she prefers Vox to govern through the PSOE's abstention

[Velasco]

Pablo Iglesias announces he’s retiring from politics.

This is historic

It's time for Yolanda Díaz

10th anniversary of the 15M within 11 days. Podemos comes from there

[Velasco]

Pablo Iglesias announces he’s retiring from politics.

It was obvious, this race wasn't winnable for the left, he was just looking for an excuse/reason

Pablo Iglesias was suffering an evident fatigue. He was preparing his definitive retirement, although it was expected to be a gradual process. This defeat is too hard, but at least the Iglesias intervention saved the UP parliamentary status in Madrid

[Velasco]

Santiago Abascal announced Vox will support Ayuso without joining the government

[Velasco]

99.8% in

PP 65 (44.72%)
MM 24 (16.97%)
PSOE 24 (16.85%)
Vox 13 (9.13%)
UP 10 (7.21%)

Cs 0 (3.57%)

Madrid (municipality)

PP 45.32%
MM 17.89%
PSOE 16.09%
Vox 8.09%
UP 7.47%
Cs 3.7%

[Velasco]

So who realistically, besides Diaz, can think about becoming new Podemos secretary?

Yolanda Díaz is a member of the PCE. She has never been a Podemos member, although she is a very close friend of Pablo Iglesias. Díaz left IU recently, due differences with the leadership of that organization. She is currently Deputy PM and Labour minister, besides the woman proposed by Pablo Iglesias to be the Unidas Podemos candidate in the next general elections. Given the strong influence of Pablo Iglesias within the UP space, besides her personal popularity, she will probably be elected candidate in a primary election.

As for the Podemos leadership,  I think Pablo Iglesias is thinking  a woman should replace him as well. It could be Irene Montero, but maybe there's some dark horse out there. The problem is the hyper-leadership of Pablo Iglesias has emptied his party of relevant personalities.

I think a reconfiguration of the space to the left of the PSOE is inevitable. That space includes UP (Podemos, IU), En Comú Podem (Ada Colau), Más País / Más Madrid (Iñigo Errejón and Mónica García), Compromis (Mónica Oltra) and Adelante Andalucía (Teresa Rodríguez). It's too early to say if there exists a chance for a confluence of these forces

[Velasco]

All hail the heir of Esperanza Aguirre and Sarah Palin, a phenomenon in her own. I corrected the figures of the blocks in the paragraph below

 https://english.elpais.com/politics/2021-05-04/popular-party-takes-victory-in-bitterly-fought-madrid-regional-election-falling-just-short-of-majority.html

Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who until a few years ago was pretty much unknown on the Spanish political scene, today consolidated her position as a genuine political phenomenon. The conservative Popular Party’s candidate was the big winner at Tuesday’s Madrid election, having managed to secure more seats in the regional assembly than the three leftist parties combined. With 99% of votes counted, Ayuso had taken 65 seats, just four short of the absolute majority of 69. Combined with the 13 seats of far-right Vox, the two parties secured 78 deputies in total compared to the 58 of the leftist bloc: 24 for the Socialist Party (PSOE), 24 for Más Madrid and 10 for Unidas Podemos. At the last regional elections, in 2019, the difference between right and left was just four seats. Now that number is 20. Madrid has shifted even further to the right.  

National repercussions

 
The big question now is what consequences this spectacular result will have on the national scene. The president of the national PP, main opposition leader Pablo Casado, was the first to speak on Tuesday night from the balcony of the party’s headquarters in Genova street, in the Spanish capital. “Today Madrid has delivered a motion of no confidence against sanchismo,” he said, in reference to the PSOE prime minister, Pedro Sánchez.

From the PSOE, meanwhile, sources were keen to paint Madrid as an island, insisting that the region “votes differently from the rest of Spain,” and pointing to the terrible results that the PP has seen in Catalonia and the Basque Country in recent times. “This is a very important region, but it doesn’t represent the whole of Spain, as we have just seen with the PP’s result in Catalonia,” said José Luis Ábalos, the PSOE’s organization secretary, albeit with a face that reflected his party’s poor showing. “We have two years ahead of us to build the progressive alternative that Madrid needs,” he said, in reference to the next regional election, which will be held in 2023. “We will get to work,” he added, making clear that the party’s candidate, Ángel Gabilondo, will no longer be heading up that opposition.  

Political analysts concur the failed motion of no confidence in Murcia was the second biggest fiasco performed by Pedro Sánchez and Iván Redondo, after the electoral repetition in November 2019

 The snap election was called by Ayuso after the PSOE and Ciudadanos attempted a motion of no confidence in the Murcia region, in a bid to wrest power from the PP. Not only did the play fail, but it also caused a kind of butterfly effect that has ended with Ayuso’s victory in Madrid, bolstering the PP while at the same time completely absorbing Ciudadanos’s votes. What’s more, it will boost the confidence of the conservatives, who will trust that they can once again win a national election. “Uniting the entire center-right, Sánchez can be beaten. It’s game on. There is a future,” Casado stated. “Freedom has triumphed once more,” Ayuso added, to cheers of “freedom, freedom” from the crowd – a reference to her oft-repeated, and ultimately successful, campaign slogan: “Communism or freedom?”  

[Velasco]

Worth noting "Wall Street Wolverine " is a 'patriot' youtuber who fled to Andorra, in order to avoid paying taxes in Spain. Even Ayuso's tax haven is too much for him, apparently.  Recently "Wall Street Wolverine" became the laughingstock in Twitter, when he asked for the construction of a helipad in the nearby Seu D'Urgell, so he could go from Andorra to Madrid and visit his friends. Some people noted that "Wall Street Wolverine" was discovering why paying taxes is neccessary.

But this issue is more serious than it appears. Last weekend  I heard to someone who teaches high school students that youngsters trust these people.They watch the YouTube channels and hear all kinds of nonsense and barbarism without filter, because many people don't read books and don't get information from reliable sources