2023 NCAA conference realignment (12/20: the PAC-2 join the WCC)

[Donerail]

Not ideal, but probably the best possible outcome for us here. Long-term goal should still be Big Ten, but when the ACC cracks in 5-6 years (which seems more likely than ever) being in the ACC instead of independent is likely a better position to make that jump.

[Donerail]

The MW TV deal pays $3 million annually. Nothing makes sense to me anymore. If that is their best option, why not take the Cal/Stanford deal with the ACC and get $12 million a year, or heck, even $6 million for reduced brand value? All I heard was that they can't afford to go forego revenue like the other schools, but now they have no choice. The AAC would have at best matched that annual payout and now that is not even on the table.

The sole option is to expand the P-2 and even then, they would have troublesome, if not impossible, buyouts to bear to add the best AAC squads and likely no TV deal. They seem completely screwed into making nothing and playing nobody.

The AAC is probably not interested in adding them since they pose no serious poaching risk now. USF won't join this Pac-X. Maybe the five westernmost schools have some interest - UTSA, Tulsa, Rice, Memphis and Tulane - but at the end of the day, I am certain that conference pays less than the AAC.

Goodbye PAC!

I could see a sort of expansion that looks more like a hostile takeover — keep the name, the playoff slot (if they let you) and $60 mil in accrued NCAA tournament units (which they likely have to let you keep), and Oregon State/Wazzu, and fill it out with the Mountain West. Kliavkoff out, Nevarez in.

[Donerail]

Not ideal, but probably the best possible outcome for us here. Long-term goal should still be Big Ten, but when the ACC cracks in 5-6 years (which seems more likely than ever) being in the ACC instead of independent is likely a better position to make that jump.

If the Big Ten was interested in Stanford and Cal, they would have made an offer now. It isn't happening.

Did I say "Cal" anywhere in there? I did not. It is about what Notre Dame wants and attaching yourself at the hip to them when the ACC implodes.

[Donerail]

The Mountain West is looking similarly abysmal with the gap growing between other conferences and its top teams - in addition to the top 6 and bottom 6 within the conference.

I'm not sure Oregon State and Washington State could find six teams that remotely resemble P5 programs to fill out a Pac-12: San Diego State and Memphis are almost there and Boise State and Fresno State might be able to fake it. I don't think UNLV or UTSA or Colorado State can even come close to faking it.

I don't think the goal for OSU/WSU here is to rebuild the Pac-12 into a bona fide P5 conference — very little reason to try to go get Memphis or Tulane. Just a nice amicable merger with the Mountain West, and maybe you take the opportunity to shear off some of the worst offenders on the MWC side.

[Donerail]

The Mountain West is looking similarly abysmal with the gap growing between other conferences and its top teams - in addition to the top 6 and bottom 6 within the conference.

I'm not sure Oregon State and Washington State could find six teams that remotely resemble P5 programs to fill out a Pac-12: San Diego State and Memphis are almost there and Boise State and Fresno State might be able to fake it. I don't think UNLV or UTSA or Colorado State can even come close to faking it.

I don't think the goal for OSU/WSU here is to rebuild the Pac-12 into a bona fide P5 conference — very little reason to try to go get Memphis or Tulane. Just a nice amicable merger with the Mountain West, and maybe you take the opportunity to shear off some of the worst offenders on the MWC side.

That would still make the Pac-12 a G6 (or G7 if the WAC goes FBS). Gonzaga should be considered if the Pac-12 tries to rebuild if it wants to remain P5.

Gonzaga doesn't play football.

Why not add a non-football member to help retain P5 status? Gonzaga makes sense in the region. Gonzaga deserves to be in a P5 conference.

The Power Five conferences are (were?) the elite conferences in the sport of college football. Football is what drives the media rights deals. This is why P5 conferences don't have any non-football members — they do not "help retain P5 status."

Gonzaga, again, does not play football.

[Donerail]

My suggestion, all of which seem like good fits:

SEC (24) - Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State
Big 10 (22) - Stanford, Cal, Syracuse, Notre Dame, plus maybe 2 Big 12 schools?
Big 12 (19/17) - Pittsburgh, Louisville, SMU
Big East - Boston College, Wake Forest (can be football only in AAC or CUSA)

Better scenario than what will actually happen.
Prospect of Florida State in the Big Ten disgusts me even more than Washington or UCLA. Remember when AAU used to be make-or-break? I hope the SEC pushes hard for them.

You left out Miami, so I guess that rounds out the Big 12.

Big Ten will not be settling for Cal, and probably not Stanford or Cuse either. I've long wanted Virginia there, but I think they end up stuck too when clearly nobody wants them. The new motives are much more shameless than when Rutgers was added. If they don't get FSU, UNC, or Duke, they have no reason to expand.

I think the move for us is to just tie ourselves as tightly as possible to Notre Dame. These expansions seem to always happen in pairs, and Notre Dame pushed hard to get us into the ACC in the first place – they would almost certainly be our ticket out. And I think the Big Ten would be willing to pay an extra revenue share if it's part of finally locking down Notre Dame, maybe as part of a deal that also adds UNC/Dook.

I don't think the SEC can afford to give the Big Ten any sort of recruiting foothold in its footprint. Whatever their problems, I can't imagine the SEC letting them poach FSU/Miami. Clemson also feels like a natural fit, and Georgia Tech probably for the same reasons as Florida. Geography admittedly seems to matter less and less, but the SEC's primary advantage is that it has a natural recruiting monopoly over the most talent-rich region in the country. Gotta make the defensive move here.