Saskatchewan election 2020

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP could get a majority if it literally swept every urban seat, plus won the 2 far north ridings:

2 far north +
13 in Saskatoon +
12 in Regina +
2 in Moose Jaw +
2 in Prince Albert
3 in smaller cities (Swift Current, Yorkton, the Battlefords)

That gives you 33 seats, a bare majority

Of course, winning some of those seats requires huge swings. Take Yorkton for example, which has voted for the winning party in every election since 1964, making it the province's best bellwether. The Sask Party won it in 2016 by 50 points.

[Hatman 🍁]

In a rural-urban-sorted era, bellwethers aren't the eternal thing they once might have seemed.  Kitchener Centre, for one, now seems more perma-left than a left-right swinger.

Ontario's best bellwethers are actually Peterborough and Scarborough Centre, and they're still swinging with the tide. Niagara Falls was one too until Wayne Gates won it.

Sarnia used to be a pretty good federal bellwether, but decided to not back Trudeau.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if Erin O'Toole could break that pattern in Peterborough, given both demographic sorting (Peterborough is about 90% white and 25% university educated) and his fairly "local" roots.

I was referring to provincial bellwethers, but Peterborough is a pretty good federal bellwether too (going back to 1984). It has voted for the party who has won the most seats in every provincial election since 1977.

[Hatman 🍁]

In a rural-urban-sorted era, bellwethers aren't the eternal thing they once might have seemed.  Kitchener Centre, for one, now seems more perma-left than a left-right swinger.

Ontario's best bellwethers are actually Peterborough and Scarborough Centre, and they're still swinging with the tide. Niagara Falls was one too until Wayne Gates won it.

Sarnia used to be a pretty good federal bellwether, but decided to not back Trudeau.

In BC, looking at past few elections, I am kind of thinking Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge-Mission, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Vancouver-Fraserview would be good candidates for future bellwethers

If you go by the party that wins the most seats, then Kamloops (either seat) remains BC's best bellwether. This will likely change in a few weeks, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Doesn't everyone in Saskatchewan have a DUI? :-P I doubt this will push the needle that much. Maybe a bit in the suburbs?

[Hatman 🍁]

A case could be made that Saskatchewan and not Alberta is now the bedrock of conservative support in Canada. The federal Conservatives swept Saskatchewan in 2019, but fell one seat short of doing the same in Alberta. Some federal polls have recently put Conservative support in Saskatchewan running roughly even with the party's support in its western neighbour.

Provincially, the Saskatchewan Party and leader Scott Moe remain popular, while Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and his United Conservative Party have dropped in the polls. The NDP won an election in Alberta in 2015. The NDP has not won an election in Saskatchewan since 2003.

Another emphatic victory by the Saskatchewan Party would make the case stronger. Already, the party has put up historic performances, capturing more than 60 per cent of the vote in the last two provincial elections. The only other provincial parties in Canada to have done that in at least two consecutive elections were the Newfoundland Liberals after the province joined Confederation and the Quebec Liberals during the First World War.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/grenier-saskatchewan-political-dynaties-1.5747048?cmp=rss

If they both had the same number of ridings, this would be relevant. But they don't. If Saskatchewan had the same number of ridings, the NDP would've won a seat in Saskatoon at least, I'm sure.

[Hatman 🍁]

Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina all seem pretty similar in their voting patterns. 

True, but in 2019, the orange blob was bigger in Saskatoon than Regina (probably due to the whole Erin Weir situation + Ralph Goodale strength in Wascana). Under normal circumstances, a 34-seat Sasktchewan map would probably produce an NDP seat in both cities, plus maybe one in the north?

[Hatman 🍁]

I see the PC's are running thirty candidates. What's the story there? I thought they just ran a few paper candidates each election to keep the party alive and maintain access to old PC funds...

they are running as the "Progressive  Conservative" Party. And their logo is "CP", not PC.

[Hatman 🍁]

All polls reporting

The Sask Party is now up 50-11 in seats, with Meili personally trailing.

Unless rescued by the mail in ballots, Meili's left wing socialist approach has to be considered a complete failure.

Their poll ratings crashed back down to what has been the usual sad range almost as soon as he became leader

Well, Meili and Moe became leaders around the same time, so that poll crash could just as well be attributed to Moe's honeymoon. Meili did win a by-election in a Sask Party seat, so voters in Meewasin at least weren't turned off by him.

[Hatman 🍁]

With the mail in ballots so far, the NDP now has a positive swing in the popular vote from 2016. It will likely continue to climb, as the only ridings left to count (save Wood River) are in Regina or Saskatoon. Only one race left that is undecided, Regina Pasqua, but I think the NDP needs to get 65%+ on the mail ins to get it.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP did not pick up Pasqua, so 48-13 will be the final seat totals.

[Hatman 🍁]

Did NDP win mail in ballots or just tighter?  Be interesting to see how it impacts BC as I believe in BC, the number is higher and they are supposed to heavily favour NDP.

According to Quito, it was very close; SP won postals 48-47.

[Hatman 🍁]

[Hatman 🍁]

Any explanation for why the NDP lost their old stronghold of Saskatoon-Riversdale when there was a swing TO the NDP in most other ridings in Saskatoon?

I'm having trouble figuring out why myself. There was an increase in numerical turnout, which might provide a clue. I can't seem to find any new subdivisions or anything and the SaskParty candidate doesn't seem like the kind of person to carry a large personal vote (which is why Athabasca swung so heavily)

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm wondering if it's a matter of Riversdale having coasted on Romanow/Calvert fumes until now, which made it look like more of a dead cert relative to the present-day NDP than it actually was--that is, there's just a bit too much on the far side of Circle Drive and whatnot that's not dissimilar to Sask Party suburban bastions elsewhere, and not enough on the near side to compensate.

One thing about the swing map that's interesting: the far SE/SW swinging heavily to the NDP by default because Buffalo took so much of the Sask vote and the NDP was already too depleted for much further sinkage...

Is the Buffalo Party vote all toward the southern border?

Well, the southeast and southwest corners. I believe that's where most of the oil is in the province. Of course, they didn't run in most ridings, so it's misleading to talk about vote concentrations.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm wondering if it's a matter of Riversdale having coasted on Romanow/Calvert fumes until now, which made it look like more of a dead cert relative to the present-day NDP than it actually was--that is, there's just a bit too much on the far side of Circle Drive and whatnot that's not dissimilar to Sask Party suburban bastions elsewhere, and not enough on the near side to compensate.

One thing about the swing map that's interesting: the far SE/SW swinging heavily to the NDP by default because Buffalo took so much of the Sask vote and the NDP was already too depleted for much further sinkage...

Is the Buffalo Party vote all toward the southern border?

Well, the southeast and southwest corners. I believe that's where most of the oil is in the province. Of course, they didn't run in most ridings, so it's misleading to talk about vote concentrations.

These are also the ridings historically least supportive of the CCF/NDP.  I believe a couple of the ridings where the Buffalo Party came in 2nd place are ridings the CCF/NDP have never won.

I think that only applies to Cannington. The NDP won Estevan as recently as 1995 and Shaunavon (predecessor to Cypress Hills) went NDP in 1991 while Maple Creek (another Cypress Hills predecessor) went NDP in 1971.