Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Hatman 🍁]

Re: abortion: This is just the Liberals dog whistling to their base. Social issues are the great divider, after all. If they can make the debate about social issues, they can deflect from their shortcomings like on electoral reform.

Re: Catherine McKenna being a possible rising star.   🤢🤢🤢 ok, well I'm still mad at her beating Paul Dewar and her being a strong MP/cabinet minister will cement Ottawa Centre into a safe Liberal seat like it is provincially.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet has been releasing a bunch of provincial polls. The most surprising is PEI:

Greens: 36
PC: 30
Liberals: 29
NDP: 5

First time ever the Greens have led in a province wide poll before

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are some more numbers:

BC
NDP: 39
Liberals: 34
Greens: 28 (another big number for the Greens)

With PR coming it, it's a shame they didn't ask about the Conservatives...

Manitoba
PC: 40
NDP: 37(fairly good result at this stage!)
Liberals: 13
Greens: 10

Saskatchewan
Sask Party: 51
NDP: 34
Liberals: 9
Greens: 6

Not such good numbers there

Alberta
UCP: 56
NDP: 27
Alta Party: 7
Liberals: 7
Greens: 3

Newfoundland
Liberals: 44
PCs: 41
NDP: 15

Quebec
CAQ: 32
PLQ: 31
PQ: 18
QS: 15

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, the Greens do tend to over-poll with IVR

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow!

So, all three parties have skeletons in the closet? I wonder who in the NDP has been naughty... I haven't heard any rumours myself.

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently one of the claims against JT is that he had a consensual relationship with a male conservative staffer, and that both parties were aware during the 2015 election. If that's really it, this is a nothingburger.

If true, he was cheating on his wife, so that's got to count for something... *sigh* who am I kidding, you're probably right.

could be in an open relationship tbf

I'd imagine it's somewhat common(?) for spouses to allow the other spouse to sleep with members of their own sex on the side, as pregnancy is not a concern.

[Hatman 🍁]

P e o p l e k i n d

That was a very silly clip.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/wine-boycott-alberta-british-columbia-trans-mountain-1.4523473

Crazy Alberta Premier bans British Columbia wines.

Hopefully federal NDP wakes up and kick out that oil industry puppet out of the party, with every MLA that refuses to vote her out.

Puppet? Good grief. Might I suggest Notley takes the stances she does because she wants to be re-elected and the Albertan public is generally pro-oil? If the NDP wants to lose elections on a principal that's their business, but let's stop this silly nonsense about someone who started their career in what was then a permanently minor party being a careerist puppet of industry.

Indeed. The cynic in me believes that she only way she can get re-elected is by attacking her own party. (and maybe Horgan is in on this too, and is a scheme to siphon off votes from the Greens)

It's unfortunate that this party is experiencing a civil war of sorts, but I must admit it is pretty damn amusing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ten years ago, the idea of a gender-neutral anthem would have also been thought of as a dumb joke but yet here we are.

it was brought up 10 years ago, and it was thought of as a dumb joke. (Well, 17 years ago, but: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ot_k59A5yrA)

[Hatman 🍁]

Trudeau's been a failure of a PM. I have a hard time buying that the "peoplekind" thing was a joke – he seemed to be taking it pretty seriously. Shows even more he likes to focus on non-issues.

Eh, I very much dislike the guy and disapprove of (most) of his politics, but he's not a failure thus far. There has been a trickle of incidents where he and his government have come off as arrogant or self-interested (being only in favour of electoral reform so long as it benefits his party comes to mind) that he needs to get under control, but it's certainly not a disaster yet.

"Disappointment" is the best word to use, I think.

[Hatman 🍁]

I had heard some strange things about Stoffer (like refusing to use a computer), but hadn't heard that. Then again, I was never invited to the notorious 'all party party' that he hosted. Apparently lots of people knew though...

[Hatman 🍁]

Scheer isn't helping himself every time he harps on and on about the Agha Khan, as if anyone south of Queensway cares.

Heh. That's the first time I've head the Quensway used the in same way as "The Beltway".

[Hatman 🍁]

While I never want to make any firm predictions considering how often the unexpected has happened, I see a Conservative majority is extremely unlikely.  Minority perhaps (but I suspect the NDP and Liberals would gang up them to keep them out).  The best case scenario for the Tories, albeit not most likely, is around 150 seats, otherwise 7 in Atlantic Canada, hold what they have in Quebec, 60 seats in Ontario, 20 seats in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, 32 seats in Alberta, and 20 seats in British Columbia.  Obviously they will likely do worse, but if the Liberals continue to mess up and the Tories have a strong platform and campaign, I see this as their best case scenario. 

There's still time for a major scandal or the economy to take a downturn, but assuming neither of those happen, the trickle of unforced Liberal errors won't be good for anymore than a Tory minority and probably not even that. Eyeballing the polls, it looks like the Tories will take back a decent number of seats from the Liberals in Anglo Canada, but the Liberals will more or less break even by swallowing the NDP and Bloc Quebecois in Quebec.

Someone needs to emerge as a clear runner up in Quebec to force a minority (assuming the Tories don't pick up the pace in the ROC). The Liberals will run the table in Quebec if the polls hold and the result is something like 45-15-15-15

With Andrew Scheer Stupidity as Conservative Party leader.  I actually wouldn't be surprised to see the Conservatives lose another 20-30 seats in the next election.

Possible but the Tories are more or less down to their core now so I still think modest gains are more likely than losses.  While harping on the scandal may seem silly and most may not care, generally that is what opposition parties do, their job is not to be nice to the government but to go after their weaknesses.  Governments never lose on single issues, its when enough baggage develops.  At the moment the Liberals need a lot more baggage to lose, but as an opposition your goal is to speed that up.  The real problem the Tories face is with the NDP weakness it will likely be a two way race so even if they won 130 seats (not saying they will not just saying what if) they would still remain in opposition and the Liberals even at that could still get a majority.

I think the NDP could knock of Brad Trost in Saskatchewan.

Hilarious to think that Trost's riding name has "University" in its name.

[Hatman 🍁]

Small business owners are definitely not the NDP's key demographic, but supporting them definitely is within the NDP's mantra of 'helping the little guy'.  Let's drop the absurd extremist ideology name calling, mmkay?

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontarians tend to vote for the opposite party that is in power federally. 2003 & 2007 are the only recent exceptions.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontarians tend to vote for the opposite party that is in power federally. 2003 & 2007 are the only recent exceptions.

You mean 2015, not 2007 as then we had a federal Conservative government.

I meant in provincial elections.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why hasn't this troll been banned yet?

[Hatman 🍁]

Patrick Brown's being wooed to run for Peel Region mayor but is noncommittal so far. Could be a comeback perch if he ran and won.

Regions do not have mayors. He would be running for chair.

The federal constituency of Manicouagan will likely change name to become Côte-Nord.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1100463/la-circonscription-federale-manicouagan-change-de-nom

Good call. Now if they could only re-name the provincial riding Duplessis to something less offensive.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another name change for federal riding.. Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot will become Saint-Hyacinthe-Acton so the MRC d'Acton feels included and represented.

https://www.lavoixdelest.ca/actualites/nouveau-nom-meme-identite-40d819ad72b947ec0d620530d9ce48b7

The article says it's part of riding name changes wanted by MPs in bill C-402 that looks to be in Senate now and take effect in next election.
http://www.parl.ca/LegisInfo/BillDetails.aspx?Language=E&billId=9831496

Nova Scotia:
Cape Breton—Canso becomes Cape Breton—North Nova
South Shore—St. Margarets becomes South Nova
Sydney—Victoria becomes Cape Breton by the Sea

Quebec:
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis becomes Lévis—Bellechasse—Etchemins
Jonquière becomes Jonquière—Haut-Saguenay
Manicouagan becomes Côte-Nord
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot becomes Saint-Hyacinthe—Acton

Ontario:
Mississauga—Streetsville becomes Streetsville—Meadowvale—Lisgar
Nickel Belt becomes Greater Sudbury—Nickel Belt

Manitoba:
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley becomes Winnipeg West—Headingley

Saskatchewan:
Regina—Lewvan becomes Regina West

Alberta:
Calgary Signal Hill becomes Calgary West
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake becomes Fort McMurray—Lac La Biche—Cold Lake

British Columbia:
Burnaby South becomes Burnaby—Douglas
Langley—Aldergrove becomes Langley—West Abbotsford
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon becomes Abbotsford—Mission—Fraser Canyon


While looking for C-402 I came across another riding name change but it's not at the same legislative stage.  C-377 would change Châteauguay—Lacolle to Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville.

http://www.parl.ca/LegisInfo/BillDetails.aspx?Language=E&billId=9096762

Most of these are terrible, but I'm glad to see the undoing of the dumb idea of listing the names within a riding name alphabetically in Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

York Centre should be changed to Downsview.

Or Downsview-Wilson Heights

[Hatman 🍁]

Inserting tourist names into riding names is the whole new rage, don't you know? At least it's now as bad as Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wish people would stop speculating about 'snap elections'. There will be no snap election. Justin isn't that stupid.

[Hatman 🍁]

I am a bit worried; our internal polling shows some rather high disapprovals for Singh in Ontario, even from progressives. I guess this might be because he doesn't have a seat (which I had thought didn't matter) and has been somewhat underwhelming so far.  I wonder if the fact that the NDP is at 20% has more to do with progressive dissatisfaction with Justin.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well if that's true, I guess Jagmett has to run in Burnaby then.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why isn't some back bench party hack giving up his seat to the seat less party leader? Having no seat in parliament is pretty embarrassing.

Because it's risky and the NDP needs all the talent they have in the house and it's not really that embarassing. Jack Layton didn't have a seat when he became leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, looks like Doug Ford is becoming a dictator?