Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[RogueBeaver]

Hébert on how Trump's upended our political landscape, and while a snap election is possible it would probably be around NAFTA crunch time rather than this summer. Justin could call a fall one like Chrétien if that's what he wanted. Coyne doesn't think one will or should happen, but Grits might regret it later if they don't. On a related note, Grit nominations start next week.

Star on Singh's travails.

Trump unhappy with our defence spending ahead of the NATO summit.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wish people would stop speculating about 'snap elections'. There will be no snap election. Justin isn't that stupid.

[King of Kensington]

Tom Parkin, who kind of operates as the NDP's official stenographer in the Toronto Sun, seems to think that the BC and Ontario NDPs owe Singh big time and will yield big results.

[136or142]

Tom Parkin, who kind of operates as the NDP's official stenographer in the Toronto Sun, seems to think that the BC and Ontario NDPs owe Singh big time and will yield big results.

I know polls are 'lagging indicators' but I can't see where this media 'it will be all over for Jagmeet as soon as he Singhs' comes from. Three of the four latest polls have the NDP at around 20% which is at the high end of their traditional polling.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_federal_election

[King of Kensington]

Can Singh at least hold the ROC seats and make some gains with an appeal to urban progressives, environmentalists and Sikhs?

[136or142]

Can Singh at least hold the ROC seats and make some gains with an appeal to urban progressives, environmentalists and Sikhs?

Based on these polls I'd say it would have to be that way: if they're down in Quebec, they have to be up elsewhere.  I'm contrary to what others say about B.C though.  Keep in mind that, although the NDP knocked out several Conservatives, they kept their percentage of seats here the exact same: from 12/36 to 14/42.  The only seats I could really see the NDP gain here are Surrey Center and the Burnaby riding held by Liberal Terry Beech. If Jonathan Wilkinson in Burnaby-North Vancouver loses, I think it's more likely it would go to the Conservatives than to the NDP.

I don't know the electoral situation in any other parts of the country but If the NDP remains at 20% but declines in Quebec, I'd expect the NDP to gain in Toronto, South Western Ontario, Northern Ontario and Halifax.

[Hatman 🍁]

I am a bit worried; our internal polling shows some rather high disapprovals for Singh in Ontario, even from progressives. I guess this might be because he doesn't have a seat (which I had thought didn't matter) and has been somewhat underwhelming so far.  I wonder if the fact that the NDP is at 20% has more to do with progressive dissatisfaction with Justin.

[136or142]

I am a bit worried; our internal polling shows some rather high disapprovals for Singh in Ontario, even from progressives. I guess this might be because he doesn't have a seat (which I had thought didn't matter) and has been somewhat underwhelming so far.  I wonder if the fact that the NDP is at 20% has more to do with progressive dissatisfaction with Justin.

Weird.  I guess the most positive take on this is that the opposite of love isn't hate, but indifference.

[DC Al Fine]

Can Singh at least hold the ROC seats and make some gains with an appeal to urban progressives, environmentalists and Sikhs?

Based on these polls I'd say it would have to be that way: if they're down in Quebec, they have to be up elsewhere.  I'm contrary to what others say about B.C though.  Keep in mind that, although the NDP knocked out several Conservatives, they kept their percentage of seats here the exact same: from 12/36 to 14/42.  The only seats I could really see the NDP gain here are Surrey Center and the Burnaby riding held by Liberal Terry Beech. If Jonathan Wilkinson in Burnaby-North Vancouver loses, I think it's more likely it would go to the Conservatives than to the NDP.

I don't know the electoral situation in any other parts of the country but If the NDP remains at 20% but declines in Quebec, I'd expect the NDP to gain in Toronto, South Western Ontario, Northern Ontario and Halifax.

The NDP ought to win Halifax next time as that seat is a fantastic fit for them. It's like a microcosm of the NDP coalition and I was really surprised the Liberals won it last time. Outside of that seat any success they have in Atlantic Canada will be heavily candidate based IMO.

[RogueBeaver]

Of the few predictions I get right, this had to be one. Patemkin is running for Peel Region chair.

[RogueBeaver]

Scheer rejected requests from certain MPs to expel Bernier from caucus, and the MP who started it whined to CP.

[DC Al Fine]

Scheer rejected requests from certain MPs to expel Bernier from caucus, and the MP who started it whined to CP.

Thoughts on who it was?

[136or142]

The media talking heads say the NDP is in serious trouble and yet they're actually reaching post election highs (20% or so.)  Why is the NDP actually doing so well?  Post Ontario provincial election confusion or is there something more permanent to it?

[mileslunn]

The media talking heads say the NDP is in serious trouble and yet they're actually reaching post election highs (20% or so.)  Why is the NDP actually doing so well?  Post Ontario provincial election confusion or is there something more permanent to it?

Possible post election bounce, I suspect things will normalize over time as asides from Ontario no bounce in other provinces.  Also Wynne's unpopularity is probably a big reason many polls showed the Tories over 40% in Ontario, but I suspect with her now gone, the Tories will fall back into the 30s.

[136or142]

The media talking heads say the NDP is in serious trouble and yet they're actually reaching post election highs (20% or so.)  Why is the NDP actually doing so well?  Post Ontario provincial election confusion or is there something more permanent to it?

Possible post election bounce, I suspect things will normalize over time as asides from Ontario no bounce in other provinces.  Also Wynne's unpopularity is probably a big reason many polls showed the Tories over 40% in Ontario, but I suspect with her now gone, the Tories will fall back into the 30s.

Thanks for the reply.

The only poll I saw with Ontario numbers had the Federal NDP at 26% in Ontario.  How does this compare with a couple months ago?

[RogueBeaver]

Justin responds to groping questions, he didn't and doesn't feel he acted inappropriately but understands that the woman felt differently, and men and women experience such situations differently. He apologized in the moment.

Christopherson won't seek re-election next year.

[RogueBeaver]

Bev Shipley is retiring.

[136or142]

Bev Shipley is retiring.

Since that tweet is now down:
http://www.wallaceburgcourierpress.com/2018/07/08/bev-shipley-wont-be-running-in-next-federal-election

Also, "Bev Shipley is a man baby."

[DC Al Fine]

Bev Shipley is retiring.

Should be a boring by-election.

[RogueBeaver]

I should've said retiring next year. Anyway, Laverdiere is also retiring next year.

[136or142]

I should've said retiring next year. Anyway, Laverdiere is also retiring next year.

Well, since Shipley would have remained in his seat, that would have made for a very interesting by-election. 

[RogueBeaver]

Don Martin on MPs leaving politics next year: MacAulay and Plamondon definitely, possibly Nicholson. Lisa Raitt denied on Twitter she's leaving. Bennett might leave sooner to take a diplomatic appointment.

Ivison lists 3 ParlSecs to watch in next week's shuffle: Mendocino, Miller, Wilkinson.

[136or142]

Like everybody else here, I don't make much out of a single poll, but I found the latest Ipsos poll interesting for a couple reasons

Liberal: 39%
Conservative: 32%
NDP: 21%

First, these results are virtually identical to the 2015 election results. Second, the NDP is still at 21% even though it has lost its Ontario bounce as a result of the provincial election (back at 20%.)

The NDP is only at 18% in Quebec in this poll, but, instead the NDP retains this relatively high poll standing on the basis of British Columbia, where, according to this poll, they lead at 35%.

Of course, the overall survey was of 1,000 people so, the polling from B.C would be maybe 150, so, that gets back to the first point of not making too much of a single poll, but if the NDP received 35% of the vote in B.C it would be nearly unprecedented.  Only in the 1988 free trade election did the NDP come in first and get a higher share of the vote: 37%.  In the 2011 'Orange Crush' election, the NDP only received 32% of the vote in B.C.    

[Hatman 🍁]

Well if that's true, I guess Jagmett has to run in Burnaby then.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Why isn't some back bench party hack giving up his seat to the seat less party leader? Having no seat in parliament is pretty embarrassing.