Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm? They showed the NDP surging in LW. I doubt Forum as a general rule, and riding polls more generally.

They showed them surging, but never ahead iirc.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, maybe it's just a Thornhill phenomena, but the most Jewish part of the riding went 75% Tory. So....

[Hatman 🍁]

2011 Federal Election Niagara Falls riding:

Niagara-on-the-Lake: Conservative 59.2%, NDP 16.1%, Liberal 17.8%
Niagara Falls:  Conservative 51.3%, NDP 24.5%, Liberal 19.8%
Fort Erie:  Conservative 53.1%, NDP 27.6%, Liberal 13.6%

Harper New Democrats? 

Why not? Such a thing helped the NDP win in London West, I'm sure. Maybe not to the same degree though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my obligatory blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/02/provincial-by-elections-today-in-ontario.html

It also includes a breakdown of the 2011 Thornhill results by ward.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leaders' polling must echo Forum: Wynne and Hudak are in Thornhill, Horwath in Niagara.

Even if the polls were different, I don't see many scenarios where the leaders would be in different ridings.

If the PCs lose Niagara Falls, I am confident they will be a non-factor in the general election.  These seats (London West, Niagara Falls, K-W) are ridings that Hudak should be winning if he has any shot at forming government.  Northern Ontario and the 416 will likely remain NDP, and/or Liberal for the majority.  You can't win an election with only the 905.

Anyway, excited to see the results!  Polls close in about 25 minutes.

Well, 905+rural Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

1/280 polls reporting in Thornhill

PCs lead 24-23

[Hatman 🍁]

2/280 in Thornhill

Tories lead 29-28

[Hatman 🍁]

5 / 263 polls reporting in Niagara Falls

PC: 114
NDP: 55
Lib: 49

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP now ahead in Niagara

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm starting to sense a trend in FR polls in terms of over estimating Tory vote. They're good at catching NDP surges however!

[Hatman 🍁]

Underestimating governing parties perhaps? I don't know, I'm just imagining since I don't recall much of FR's polls in August outside Ottawa South.

They weren't that bad outside of Ottawa South

[Hatman 🍁]

Tories now ahead in Thornhill, NF still an 8-ish NDP lead.

Oh, you're looking at %'s. This point in the game, I prefer to look at the raw numbers. Gates is ahead by over 1100 votes.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hudak claims victory, saying ON wants change but noting the meaningless stat that PCs led the combined PV 42/30/24 (H/T Coyne on the #).

I saw that. Most irrelevant stat of the night.

[Hatman 🍁]

In terms of swing, not much difference in Thornhill. The results there don't fluctuate much, but it's so even that it's been enough to change party hands a few times. It's like a mini-Ohio Florida. (better metaphor considering the demographics)

[Hatman 🍁]

I volunteered for Joyce Morocco in NF, great candidate who fought a great battle despite the unpopularity of the party right now.
A dipper win in the falls shows how weak a leader Hudak actually is as a leader. People actually remember Mike Harris

A great candidate? Not as great as Wayne Gates, objectively. He did win more votes than her back in the 2010 city council election, after all.

Interestingly, the swing to the NDP in Niagara Falls wasn't as impressive as in Kitchener-Waterloo or London West. I wonder if there's less wind in the NDP's sails, or Niagara Falls is just less NDP-friendly than those other seats? Or perhaps running a very "union looking" man scared voters more than the friendly looking female school trustees that ran in the other two seats. (reverse sexism?) After all, there was a ridiculous campaign by the right wing parties calling Wayne Gates a "radical".

[Hatman 🍁]

[Hatman 🍁]

Terrible spinning. The real loser is Hudak.

I disagree. The Liberals lost a seat they previously held. Finished third no less. If I were a Liberal, I wouldn't want to be pulling the plug right now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks, Krago.

Looks like the NDP didn't make much of a gain in Fort Erie (went from narrowly losing to narrowly winning). This makes sense, as the NDP candidate in 2011 was from Ft Erie, and Gates is from Niagara Falls. Most of the gains were made in the Falls. Also nice to see some orange in NOTL.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, way too early. Niagara area isn't quite representative of Ontario. And Thornhill result was terrible.

It is a bit early, but Niagara Falls seems pretty representative of SW Ontario/industrial heartland seats.

The NDP didn't put any effort into Thornhill and it's a very wealthy suburban riding and one of the weakest ridings for the NDP in the province.

Actually, Niagara Falls is a pretty reliable bellwether (has gone for the government every election since 1985; federally has done since every election but 2 since 1963). Certainly good news for the NDP.

Kinsella and Paikin have, predictably, quite different takes. WK sees a Grit massacre outside GTA, Paikin a muddled status quo. Not necessarily incompatible: Paikin could be right in the short term, Kinsella in a GE.

I read Paikin's bit.  It's a bit moronic. Here's my comment I made when Alice Funke posted in Facebook (it's got three likes so far! ) :

Paikin missed the fact that the other two candidates in NF were also city councillors, and Gates was more popular (received a higher vote in 2010). Also griping about the NDP getting 7% in Thornhill? Really? Probably the worst riding in the province for the party demographically. In a two-horse race by-election, it's not unusual for a third place party to get squeezed out by their supporters voting strategically or staying at home.

[Hatman 🍁]

The weird thing is: even before the byelection, I was speculating on the possibility that Old NOTL would be the Liberals' strongest spot if not their *sole* strong spot (i.e. the most Wynne-compatible node)--and, lo and behold, I was *correct*...

Another interesting observation--the NDP swept Chippawa.

Does anyone know anything about Chippawa? I suppose it's a bit of a blue collar town.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are a comparison of the results by municipality for the Niagara Falls by-election:

Niagara-on-the-Lake
2014(By):  NDP 22%, PC 50%, Lib 24%, Oth 4%
2011(Gen):  NDP 12%, PC 44%, Lib 42%, Oth 2%
1990 (Gen):  NDP 21%, PC 29%, Lib 43%, Oth 7%

Niagara Falls
2014(By):  NDP 43%, PC 33%, Lib 22%, Oth 2%
2011(Gen):  NDP 25%, PC 31%, Lib 42%, Oth 2%
1990 (Gen):  NDP 47%, PC 13%, Lib 26%, Oth 14%

Fort Erie
2014(By):  NDP 44%, PC 42%, Lib 11%, Oth 3%
2011(Gen):  NDP 39%, PC 41%, Lib 19%, Oth 1%
1990 (Gen):  NDP 44%, PC 22%, Lib 26%, Oth 8%

Remarkably similar to the 1990 election for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP won't win. But great candidate choice.

[Hatman 🍁]

I believe Quebec also has a fixed election date law that Marois seems ready to break tomorrow. Does anyone care?

You can't realistically expect fixed election dates to be followed during minority governments. Making it an issue is a huge red herring.

NDP won't win. But great candidate choice.

Without Dunderdale, can we say that for sure? The NDP got 30% in 2011... but they've performed really weak in recent polling due both strong liberal numbers and internal fighting. Given that the candidate is a huge coup, add a few points for a personal vote right there, i think it will be more competitive then we think.

The NDP infighting has destroyed the NL NDP. The NDP should be happy with a second place finish I think. The real question is whether or not the Liberals can win it.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wish the City of St. John's had sent me the mayoral results by ward like I had asked, but I doubt O'Leary had won the north end of the city where the riding is. She was popular once upon a time, but I think publicly siding with the NDP in the last mayoral election may have hurt her.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final night of ballots for the Tory nomination in Macleod tonight

Candidates:
John Barlow - local journalist; provincial PC candidate in 2012 in Highwood (lost to WRP leader Daniellse Smith who is an eligible voter
Melissa Mathieson - research associate at the University of Calgary.
Phil Rowland - local rancher
Scott Wagner - local businessman


Guns are the biggest issue in this riding which would probably go Republican if it were in the US