Canadian by-elections, 2014

[King of Kensington]

The NDP seems to be headed toward taking about half of the Liberal vote in Niagara Falls and the Liberals are really evaporating in southwestern Ontario.  So far Andrea Horwath's "Not Toronto Not Tim Hudak" strategy seems to be working. 

[RogueBeaver]

Not in a GE context though, looking at Ipsos. What Wynne and Hudak will say is that at least they're standing for things which may be unpopular.

[DL]

Not in a GE context though, looking at Ipsos. What Wynne and Hudak will say is that at least they're standing for things which may be unpopular.

Which means that they stand for things that are unpopular! Who knows what would happen in a general election campaign. In 1990 the polls when the election called had the Liberals cruising to another majority at 45% and the NDP and PCs were mired in the low 20s...four weeks later the ONDP won a majority government with 38% of the vote

[Holmes]

It is interesting that the Liberal vote has plunged in almost every by-election since Wynne has taken control of the party (assuming the poll results for the next two hold true), but she's still leading slightly in the general election polls. Leads me to believe she's toast. Once people pay attention and think about their options, her party's support nosedives. Or it's just by-election shenanigans.

[Hatman 🍁]

Has anyone done the 2011 federal result in Niagara Falls riding by municipality?

I compiled it provincially, but didn't get around to doing it federally.

[lilTommy]

New poll on Niagara Falls and Thornhill:
http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/02/12/ontario_byelections_appear_to_be_going_against_minority_liberals_poll_finds.html

NF
NDP 48%(+10!) PC 33%(-3) OLP 17%(-2)

Thornhill
PC 51%(+5) OLP 40%(+3) NPD 5%(ouch -1)

[RogueBeaver]

Given Forum's track record I wouldn't be surprised if one of those was badly off, but momentum seems to be with the respective parties in those ridings.

[lilTommy]

Given Forum's track record I wouldn't be surprised if one of those was badly off, but momentum seems to be with the respective parties in those ridings.

I'm sure that's true. I have a feeling NF will be closer then that but still an NDP win... Hudak is already complaining the NDP has too many "union" volunteers.

I'm still torn on Thornhill; The anti-Liberal vote is rallying around the PCs, but the "progressive" vote seems to be rallying around the Liberals, again I think Thornhill will be much closer and the OLP will be (should be!) throwing all they have as NF is basically a lost cause now.

[RogueBeaver]

PCPO has a GOTV problem? Geez, maybe CPC should help our cousins build their own CIMS and volunteer army?

[King of Kensington]

Looks like the "radical Wayne" campaign isn't working, and Peter Shurman's blasting of Hudak doesn't seem to have much impact.  But I guess we'll see tomorrow.

[RogueBeaver]

Is he any different from a standard Dipper? As for Shurman... I'd hope sour grapes jackassery would be tuned out.

[lilTommy]

Is he any different from a standard Dipper? As for Shurman... I'd hope sour grapes jackassery would be tuned out.

Nope, he was a Unifor Local President before winning a seat on council in 2010, so if anything he's more of a traditional unionist dipper.
PCs play to their base, and it's anti-organized labour. Also, this http://radicalwayne.tumblr.com/ has come out to counter the PCs RadicalWayne... and it's hilarious!

[King of Kensington]

Is he any different from a standard Dipper? As for Shurman... I'd hope sour grapes jackassery would be tuned out.

Maybe, though I don't think the lead in Thornhill has much to do with Hudak and Shurman did have personal popularity there.   It seems to have become a Tory stronghold both federally and provincially.

[Hatman 🍁]

I have no reason to doubt those numbers from FR. If anything, they've badly underestimated the NDP in recent provincial by-election polls. Thornhill could turn out to be closer based on their track record with over estimating the Tories, but I don't see the Jews going Liberal.

[RogueBeaver]

Hmm? They showed the NDP surging in LW. I doubt Forum as a general rule, and riding polls more generally.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm? They showed the NDP surging in LW. I doubt Forum as a general rule, and riding polls more generally.

They showed them surging, but never ahead iirc.

[DL]

Thornhill could turn out to be closer based on their track record with over estimating the Tories, but I don't see the Jews going Liberal.

At the provincial level, Jews have been wayyyy more loyal to the Liberals than was the case federally in 2011. Just six months after the federal Tories won heavily Jewish ridings like Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre - the Ontario Liberals easily held those ridings by wide margins and gave Shurman a bit of a run for his money in Thornhill.

[King of Kensington]

At the provincial level, Jews have been wayyyy more loyal to the Liberals than was the case federally in 2011. Just six months after the federal Tories won heavily Jewish ridings like Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre - the Ontario Liberals easily held those ridings by wide margins and gave Shurman a bit of a run for his money in Thornhill.

If Hatman means "the Jews of Thornhill" I'd agree to some degree, but not for Jews generally.  Thornhill has become kind of a Tory stronghold and I think that's because the Orthodox Jews vote as a bloc and there are enough of them to have an overall impact on the riding.  The areas where Shurman crushed Farber weren't merely Jewish areas but very heavily Orthodox Jewish areas.  They viewed Farber as too progressive and were also still mad at the Liberals over school funding.

Demographically, the Jewish population of Thornhill skews more rightward (affluent, 905, religious) and lacks the small-"l" liberal element that is well represented in St. Paul's, and even, though to a lesser extent, Eglinton-Lawrence.  

[lilTommy]

At the provincial level, Jews have been wayyyy more loyal to the Liberals than was the case federally in 2011. Just six months after the federal Tories won heavily Jewish ridings like Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre - the Ontario Liberals easily held those ridings by wide margins and gave Shurman a bit of a run for his money in Thornhill.

If Hatman means "the Jews of Thornhill" I'd agree to some degree, but not for Jews generally.  Thornhill has become kind of a Tory stronghold and I think that's because the Orthodox Jews vote as a bloc and there are enough of them to have an overall impact on the riding.  The areas where Shurman crushed Farber weren't merely Jewish areas but very heavily Orthodox Jewish areas.  They viewed Farber as too progressive and were also still mad at the Liberals over school funding.

Demographically, the Jewish population of Thornhill skews more rightward (affluent, 905, religious) and lacks the small-"l" liberal element that is well represented in St. Paul's, and even, though to a lesser extent, Eglinton-Lawrence.  

I'm disagree with any of this; i just want to correct - 2011 PC 46% vs OLP 40% now that's not really "crushing" but it is a very solid win, and given the history of the riding (2007 it was  46/42 That was the voucher year, 2003 was 45/46 {OLP win} and in 1999 it was 48/47)... the geberal OLP vote has been declining and Thornhill Jews are becoming more like the rest of the York Region, in being more COnservative

[Linus Van Pelt]

He didn't say that Shurman crushed Farber in the whole riding, just that the areas where he did so were heavily Orthodox.

[King of Kensington]

I meant "crushed" in the heavily Orthodox polls straddling Bathurst St., not Thornhill riding as a whole.

The Orthodox/non-Orthodox split was also evident in Eglinton-Lawrence where the area around Bathurst and Lawrence went predictably Conservative but the Liberals won upper Forest Hill and Allenby and the Jewish seniors at Baycrest.  

I would guess that the Orthodox Jewish population is probably about 10% of the population in both ridings.  The difference of course is that the rest of the electorate are much less Conservative in Eg-Law than in York Region.  Thus in Thornhill, it's now hard to tip to the Liberals when you have a 10% Orthodox voting bloc while in Eg-Law it requires more of a "perfect storm" where the Conservatives get a higher share among Jews and do better in North Toronto etc.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, maybe it's just a Thornhill phenomena, but the most Jewish part of the riding went 75% Tory. So....

[RogueBeaver]

Assuming Forum holds tomorrow, who'll get more media crap: Wynne or Hudak?

[King of Kensington]

Ha, great question.

[King of Kensington]

2011 Federal Election Niagara Falls riding:

Niagara-on-the-Lake: Conservative 59.2%, NDP 16.1%, Liberal 17.8%
Niagara Falls:  Conservative 51.3%, NDP 24.5%, Liberal 19.8%
Fort Erie:  Conservative 53.1%, NDP 27.6%, Liberal 13.6%

Harper New Democrats?