2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 651543 times)
philly09
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« Reply #125 on: November 05, 2020, 07:05:03 AM »
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philly09
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« Reply #126 on: November 05, 2020, 07:13:06 AM »
Wasserman still being a Biden win, due to Trump underperforming his margins, and Biden doing well in rural counties like Bethlehem where he is leading by 0.4(Trump won it 2016).  He spoke to a PA GOP spokesman who said Trump "is in deep trouble".
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philly09
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« Reply #127 on: November 05, 2020, 07:14:28 AM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on November 05, 2020, 07:14:10 AM
Quote from: philly09 on November 05, 2020, 07:13:06 AM
Wasserman still being a Biden win, due to Trump underperforming his margins, and Biden doing well in rural counties like Bethlehem where he is leading by 0.4(Trump won it 2016).  He spoke to a PA GOP spokesman who said Trump "is in deep trouble".

Where'd he say that? Not on Twitter

MSNBC just now.
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philly09
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« Reply #128 on: November 05, 2020, 07:16:49 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 05, 2020, 07:14:54 AM
Quote from: philly09 on November 05, 2020, 07:13:06 AM
Wasserman still being a Biden win, due to Trump underperforming his margins, and Biden doing well in rural counties like Bethlehem where he is leading by 0.4(Trump won it 2016).  He spoke to a PA GOP spokesman who said Trump "is in deep trouble".

Bethlehem, PA? That's Lehigh and Northampton counties.  

I do try to take these "I spoke to [blank]" accounts with a grain of salt.  These folks, whoever they are, might not have any more info than the rest of us.  



Biden has taken the lead in Northampton.
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philly09
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« Reply #129 on: November 05, 2020, 07:21:25 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 05, 2020, 07:18:50 AM
Outside of those ~35K ballots in Allegheny County, Biden also outperformed Hillary 2016.

2016: Hillary +16.4
2020 (so far): Biden +19.1

In at least decent-to-big counties completed so far in PA, Biden has improved *at least* 2/3% on Hillary's margin.

There also appears to be a *LOT* still out in Erie and Lehigh too in terms of mails. Delaware and Bucks seem to have good chunks out too.

Widely reported that Biden will take Erie back from Trump.
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philly09
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« Reply #130 on: November 05, 2020, 07:26:22 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 05, 2020, 07:23:32 AM
Quote from: philly09 on November 05, 2020, 07:21:25 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 05, 2020, 07:18:50 AM
Outside of those ~35K ballots in Allegheny County, Biden also outperformed Hillary 2016.

2016: Hillary +16.4
2020 (so far): Biden +19.1

In at least decent-to-big counties completed so far in PA, Biden has improved *at least* 2/3% on Hillary's margin.

There also appears to be a *LOT* still out in Erie and Lehigh too in terms of mails. Delaware and Bucks seem to have good chunks out too.

Widely reported that Biden will take Erie back from Trump.

Sourcey-source?

The NYT election ticker. Mail ballots in Erie are breaking 3 to 1 for Biden.
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philly09
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« Reply #131 on: November 05, 2020, 07:36:40 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 05, 2020, 07:33:57 AM
Suburb Philly shift in PA with mostly completed:

Montgomery County
2016: Hillary +21.3
2020: Biden +26.0

Chester County
2016: Hillary +9.4
2020: Biden +16.6

I am just astounded by that Chester margin. Such a former GOP stronghold.
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philly09
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« Reply #132 on: November 05, 2020, 07:40:42 AM »
Bob Casey says over 400,000 votes outstanding. Mostly in Philly and Alllegheny County, and we haven't gotten the full Philly numbers. He claims the Philly number alone could put him over the top.
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philly09
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« Reply #133 on: November 05, 2020, 07:44:50 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 05, 2020, 07:43:49 AM
Quote from: philly09 on November 05, 2020, 07:40:42 AM
Bob Casey says over 400,000 votes outstanding. Mostly in Philly and Alllegheny County, and we haven't gotten the full Philly numbers. He claims the Philly number alone could him over the top.

Yep. There is at the very least 120K out in Philly, possibly more. Biden is currently about ~130K below Hillary's margin, and there's no way Philly turnout was lower than 2016 IMO. So we may be looking at like ~150K out in Philly. Also again, there could be votes that have been *processed* but not *reported*, so that 120K figure could just be ones that have left to still be *counted* AND *processed*

And if Philly doesn't do it, the burbs will.
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philly09
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« Reply #134 on: November 05, 2020, 07:47:13 AM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on November 05, 2020, 07:45:06 AM
If Casey thinks that Biden could potentially be ahead with the Philly votes alone, unless he's including suburban counties, then there has to be much more than 120k votes to count there, I would think.

He said there's at least 400,000 votes in SEPA alone.
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philly09
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« Reply #135 on: November 05, 2020, 07:47:57 AM »
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philly09
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« Reply #136 on: November 05, 2020, 07:51:39 AM »
Quote from: The scissors of false economy on November 05, 2020, 07:49:25 AM
So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

Per Bob Casey, the Philly numbers will be dropping at noon.
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philly09
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« Reply #137 on: November 05, 2020, 07:54:18 AM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on November 05, 2020, 07:53:50 AM
Quote from: philly09 on November 05, 2020, 07:51:39 AM
Quote from: The scissors of false economy on November 05, 2020, 07:49:25 AM
So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

Per Bob Casey, the Philly numbers will be dropping at noon.

Is he sticking to his 100,000 lead prediction for Biden?

Yes he is. Somewhere around there.
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philly09
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« Reply #138 on: November 05, 2020, 07:54:32 AM »
Quote from: The Trump Virus on November 05, 2020, 07:53:33 AM
Quote from: philly09 on November 05, 2020, 07:51:39 AM
Quote from: The scissors of false economy on November 05, 2020, 07:49:25 AM
So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

Per Bob Casey, the Philly numbers will be dropping at noon.


And if those Philly numbers don't put Biden over the top, is there any hope left?

Allegheny County.
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philly09
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« Reply #139 on: November 05, 2020, 04:13:48 PM »
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philly09
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« Reply #140 on: November 05, 2020, 04:32:04 PM »

Biden has surpassed Hillary's total. Dem counties have yet to finish.
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philly09
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« Reply #141 on: November 05, 2020, 04:43:27 PM »
BTW, no matter what Jeff Van Drew says, the race isn't over. Amy Kennedy trails him 10,100 votes with 72% of the vote.

Somehow Chris Smith keeps winning.
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philly09
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« Reply #142 on: November 05, 2020, 04:50:03 PM »
Quote from: Trends are MORE than real on November 05, 2020, 04:47:45 PM

Huge personal vote for him based on constituent service and being a moderate on bread-and-butter issues. Even my seventies-feminist mother liked him when we lived in the area.

He referred to Obama as "The Abortion President" a few months into his term, due to his stance on stem-cell research.
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philly09
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« Reply #143 on: November 05, 2020, 05:23:57 PM »
Jesse Waters is going full blown conspiracy a-hole on Fox right now regarding PA. Juan Williams is trying to talk him off the ledge.
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philly09
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« Reply #144 on: November 05, 2020, 05:34:13 PM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on November 05, 2020, 05:30:17 PM
Biden flipped Tarrant Co. in Texas it appears.

Has Texas counted all their mail in ballots yet?
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philly09
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« Reply #145 on: November 05, 2020, 06:01:39 PM »
Quote from: jd7171 on November 05, 2020, 05:55:27 PM
Cumberland County dumped....Biden only lost here by 10. Pretty impressive.

Well, the district polls for PA-10 had Biden up by 4, so it tracks.
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philly09
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« Reply #146 on: November 05, 2020, 06:09:33 PM »
Erie County has flipped to Biden.
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philly09
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« Reply #147 on: November 05, 2020, 06:11:36 PM »
Quote from: GAKas on November 05, 2020, 06:09:16 PM
Why was I unaware the PA Lt. Governor is a literal giant? Dude looks like he could end all of this by just eating Trump

He lost a ton of weight recently. I wish he got the nod for senator in 2016. he would have crushed Toomey.
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philly09
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« Reply #148 on: November 05, 2020, 07:40:53 PM »
Fox News still standing behind AZ. NV not too far behind.
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philly09
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« Reply #149 on: November 05, 2020, 07:41:41 PM »
I hope Biden breaks Obama's 2008 total in Philly. He's 83k votes away.
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