Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

That does it. I don't think any amount of drumbeating about not drawing sweeping conclusions from turnout reports hours before polls close will convince anyone. See you nerds at 7:00 PM EST.

Democrats are not turning out in urban cores, hide from it all you want that is a very bad sign and it's clear we've lost. The Guam flip is also indicative of an anti-democrat party enviorment given how democratic it normally is.

.... Philly and Dane turnout are great right now.

Dane is an anomaly, so is philly. The main places we're just seeing horrendous democrat turnout especialy heavily latino city cores.

“The main places”?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I know early extrapolation is an Atlas tradition and I don’t want to ruin the fun, but if anyone seriously thinks the delegate race in Guam is a useful indicator of the national environment you’re insane.

Do you think people in Guam aren't exposed to the same factors that effect the rest of the american electorate ? Why can't the results there be used to draw information about the state of the national enviorment given that the voters there are exposed to the same influences that the rest of the electorate is exposed too.

Yes.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Dixville Notch also went 5-0 for Biden in 2020.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I just don't understand how the democrats loosing a federal office they've held for almost 30 years isn't a bad sign and indicative of a very republican enviorment. Swings in seats considered safe can be random especially small ones. The texas 27th district had a pretty random swing uncorrelated with the national enviorment, but that doesn't mean if the republicans took the district it would be a catastrophic sign for the democrats.

Honestly, I think accepting the results now is the best way forward. That way you're prepared to recive them when they come and if you turn out to be wrong you just get a pleasant suprise instead of dread.

I don't see how we can't extrapolate the early NH results into a 303 map not a 242 map its WAVE INSURANCE.

I just wanna note that pants are, in fact, bad. I don’t care if it’s an ad hominem attack.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why are people voting for a year and a half of absolutely no government (nobody will pass a budget) and useless impeachment attempts on Biden?

Vibes.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I feel like the single-issue pro-life voters have already existed for a long time. Any jump in people considering it their top issue has to be mostly if not all Democrats/pro-choice voters, right?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1590121140365979648?t=5oPA897MN-l_TqT...

Disappointing! Foolish.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1590121140365979648?t=5oPA897MN-l_TqT...

That ain't good news for Dems there.

Told you. Dems can’t win in Georgia… been telling anyone who will listen for the last 2 years

As in, since the last time Dems won in Georgia?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/DawnBernadotte/status/1590079349549830144

People need to stop listening to Allan Lichtman.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/DawnBernadotte/status/1590079349549830144

I'll take it!

I'm sensing a vibe shift back towards the democrats.

I hope you're right!

Also, a 50-50 Senate *is* Democrats holding the Senate. I’d take PA and NV both flipping, for example.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The NYT needle has Oz projected to win by... 0.1%. Gonna be a nailbiter!

Down from 0.2%!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If Dems hold the trifecta, not only should relations with Cuba be normalized, but they should also elevate Cuba to #1 "best friend" status

You realize most Cuban-Americans hate the regime right

That’s the point. If we hold the trifecta without Florida, we don’t need em.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Miami-Dade is ground zero for what happens when disinformation campaigns are allowed to materialize among racial minorities without any pushback, the alt-right media and the proud boys effectively taking control of the Miami-Dade GOP is literally a massive red flag for anyone who values democracy and civil politics.

That’s right, because the only way racial minorities can support misinformation is DISINFORMATION. They belong to US!

You see how they talk about poor Whites who vote Republican?  Next several years will be quite interesting if those kinds of trends continue, lol.

Red avatar circa 2025 perusing the "List of ethnic slurs by ethnicity" Wikipedia article


Image Link

And people say Democrats cry racism…

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Upset TX, IA Sen, OH, NC

How is he not banned yet.

I’d rather you be banned than him.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Western NC swings (a few completed counties so far) towards Dems since the early 2000s (albeit at a glacial pace) seems to be influenced by the same outdoorsy hipster migration like Colorado.

Don’t underestimate Asheville!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

My dad woke up and changed the steam to PBS lol

Good dad.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Johnson leads 63-37 in Waukesha; that's not good for Democrats. We need Johnson under 60 in Waukesha.

This was expected obviously ..

The talk about early vote early today was ridiculous

I don’t think anyone really expected the Dems to get 52 seats.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Needles are back!

Senate is a tossup, projected 51 R-49 D.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Needles are back!

Still projecting a 51-49 senate in favor of the GOP.  Buckle up and get some coffee, folks. 

Wait how are they getting 51-49? Which one is flipping?

They’re currently projecting PA and GA as both flipping and NV as a pure tossup (with 0 votes in of course).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

NYT has Georgia as 60% chance of going red

They have Walker back up as well.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/redamor_/status/1590172701536432128?s=46&t=t3boeCjjiFPRr...

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Oz is underperforming big time in rural PA.

I'm sticking to my original projection from the other day where they gain PA, lose NV and maybe AZ, and GA goes to a runoff

who wins GA in a runoff

Probably depends on whether it’d determine control of the Senate overall.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Oh wow.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1590176144082751488?s=20&t=3xJD_wlaWrq...

Mine eyes have seen the glory.

So is the 2028 Democratic ticket Whitmer/Fetterman or Fetterman/Whitmer?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

With Wyoming, Lycoming, Forest, and Elk almost all in...it's pretty consistent that Fetterman is overperforming Biden in rural PA by somewhere around 3-4%.

Remember when people were calling on him to drop out? Saying he wasn’t fit to serve?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Oh wow.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1590176144082751488?s=20&t=3xJD_wlaWrq...

Mine eyes have seen the glory.

So is the 2028 Democratic ticket Whitmer/Fetterman or Fetterman/Whitmer?

I'm not terribly familiar with midwestern politics, but is Shapiro not considered a good candidate on the national stage?

ig he’s fine