Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

¡Viva!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Well, the dreaded "P-day" has arrived. Today at a speech in Barcelona, Pedro Sanchez announced that he will pardon the Catalan secessionists currently in jail tomorrow Tuesday.

They will only be partial, so while all their prison sentences will be pardoned, the ban from holding public office will not be pardoned

Still this is a big earthquake even if it was very much expected (in fact I wonder to what extent will this affect politics, if it does at all, everyone expected this for a while now)

Yeah, everyone knew pardons were coming, so it probably won’t change things very much. The left is polling weakly, and if you take into account polarization, there isn’t much room to go lower; while the right is already fired up as it is.

At the end of the day, pardons are very unpopular, but in the grand scheme of things they are a necessary evil for the government.

First, they guarantee ERC parliamentary support until the next election, and that implies that Spaniards will go to the polls whenever Pedro Sánchez decides. He can wait until Autumn 2023, as he intends, and enjoy the credit for the soon-to-come economic recovery and the end of pandemic-related restrictions.

Second, they make the Catalonia fade away as an issue somewhat. For months on end, we have seen pundits, politicians and columnists wondering about whether the government was going to grant pardons or not. That hurt the coalition during a longer period of time than the actual granting will. The right can’t use the looming threat of pardons if they have already been granted. And using their granting in 2023 won’t be very effective if they haven’t resulted in the dissolution of Spain (which is no hyperbole on my part, they’re actually claiming this). Moreover, who is going to even remember them in two and a half years?

Leaving aside the political considerations, I expect pardons to defuse the situation. They are a powerful gesture to Catalan society, even if the pro-independence parties are not showing much benevolence with the government and radical separatist groupings continue to agitate. I think the large majority of Catalans are happy with them and believe they are long overdue.

The problem is that the structural cause of the Catalan conflict, and the reason why it will never be solved in the short-term, remains. And that is self-determination. The government cannot allow a referendum, even if it wanted to (the PSOE doesn’t), because constitutional reform would be needed and the right will never give its indispensable support to such a reform. On the other hand, the Catalan government cannot renounce self-determination because it would mean the end of whichever pro-indy party that does so.

They can both negotiate all they want to in their roundtable, but Barcelona will never give up and Madrid will never give in. No one can win. So, what is the inescapable outcome? Progressive and quiet de-escalation until the conflict exists only for posturing.

What do you think the chance is of 1. a unionist or at least non-separatist (eg the famed PSC-ERC-ECP coalition) government in Catalonia in the near future, and 2. if that occurs, the deescalation of the overall conflict, either within Catalonia or between Catalonia and the national government?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Can’t believe Casado’s managed to take down both major PP leaders at the same time.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why does Podemos continue to stay independent from the left-wing alliance? They are going to split the vote

Pride. That’s why they’re not joining Sumar either.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

PP sorpassoed PSOE on the vote count just now.

Yup, which gives PP a “mandate” to lead.

PP + Vox + UPN = 170 seats

PP + Vox + UPN + CC = 171 seats

They only need more 5 or 6 seats to govern with this coalition.

Where could they get those 5 or 6 seats from?

And frankly, where would they get CC from?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

On issues unrelated to the National question/ autonomy etc, do any of the regional parties have potential right wing leanings outside of the Canaries

Junts is - in broad strokes - the right wing of Catalan nationalism, while ERC is the left. PNV is basically centrist and has worked with both the PP and PSOE in the past, although that might change going forward.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It seems like new elections are the only realistic outcome. Even if someone cobbles together an investiture, they will not be able to pass any meaningful legislation and will have to deal with mociones de censura from all over. Just need to make sure the electorate aren't too tired after an entire year of elections (28M + 23J + the 2nd GE)

Although if Sánchez does manage to form a government, I think it’d be difficult for any moción de censura to prosper. There isn’t a credible alternative that could win in these Cortes.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Do we know what Junts (and I guess ERC) are asking for?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Feijóo's investiture debate and vote is schedule for 26 and 27 September. If he fails, Sanchéz will get an opportunity and if he also fails, snap elections will be held during January 2024.

What are odds of either succeeding?  Feijoo has almost no path while Sanchez relies on getting Junts to endorse him and price probably too steep so I am thinking another election is only way out.

No idea about Sánchez’s odds, but Feijóo’s are 0.